BIRDS OF PREY starring Margot Robbie (2020?) 1 1

[Bosco685]

40 minutes ago, paperheart said:

Versus recent CB box office bombs, BOP's WW total has flown past Josh Trank's malodorous Fantastic Four, next in sight, DCEU kickoff, the execrable Green Lantern, far in the distance the Razzy nominated Dark Phoenix.

Always count on how these fine individuals play off of one another.

I guess this is the game now we play. Sounds like a plan.

WOW, BIRDS OF PREY IS KILLING IT COMPARED TO OTHER DC AND MARVEL FEMALE-LED LOW-BUDGET FILMS

[Larryw7]

I know this isn't a big issue for this.thread, but Supergirl had to make more money internationally. It played in the UK in the Summer of '84, while.the movie wasn't released in the U.S. until Christmas. I think international numbers for older movies aren't necessarily reliable.

[Bosco685]

31 minutes ago, Larryw7 said:

I know this isn't a big issue for this.thread, but Supergirl had to make more money internationally. It played in the UK in the Summer of '84, while.the movie wasn't released in the U.S. until Christmas. I think international numbers for older movies aren't necessarily reliable.

It is interesting how inconsistent the film tracking was back then. Even with the two Swamp Thing films, there is confusion over the cost and box office. I had to use a combination of Box Office Mojo, IMDb, the-Numbers and historic records to determine some of these details.

[Chaos_in_Canada]

4 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

Raising a glass to its last $1 million day...

 

[Bosco685]

On 3/1/2020 at 10:03 AM, Bosco685 said:

Higher than I estimated domestically.

International pending.

 

[Bosco685]

[Bosco685]

International was $200K higher than weekend estimates. Nothing massive. But nothing lost either.

2.2X production budget

 

[Chaos_in_Canada]

 

 

[Bosco685]

2 minutes ago, Chaos_in_Canada said:

 

 

[ExNihilo]

What's the estimated breakeven on this film?

[paperheart]

13 minutes ago, ExNihilo said:

What's the estimated breakeven on this film?

$250MM give or take

[Bosco685]

36 minutes ago, ExNihilo said:

What's the estimated breakeven on this film?

Depending on a 2.8X to 3.0X production budget estimate, it needs to make between $236.6M to $253.5M worldwide.

But with all these major events and films talking about moving dates around, that March 20, 2020 Japan market opening is really concerning if it will happen.

[Jaydogrules]

16 hours ago, ExNihilo said:

What's the estimated breakeven on this film?

This movie's all in for worldwide production, prints and marketing (all upfront, pre-theatrical release costs) is about $185MM.  Right now it has made the following to the studio:

North America:   $80MM @ 50% = $40MM

Foreign (no China):  $110MM @ 40% = $44MM

Total to studio so far:  $84MM

So right now this movie is about $100MM dollars in the red.  Meaning it would need to make another about $200MM with a comparable domestic/foreign split that it has now, just to break even- or about $390MM (funny, that's also about what Forbes said the similarly budgeted Venom needed to make to be "worth it").

Considering that it is already just about at the end of its run, it will be a(nother) big money loser for WB.

-J.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Jaydogrules

[Bosco685]

2 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

This movie's all in for worldwide production, prints and marketing (all upfront, pre-theatrical release costs) is about $185MM.  Right now it has made the following to the studio:

North America:   $80MM @ 50% = $40MM

Foreign (no China):  $110MM @ 40% = $44MM

Total to studio so far:  $84MM

So right now this movie is about $100MM dollars in the red.  Meaning it would need to make another about $200MM with a comparable domestic/foreign split that it has now, just to break even- or about $390MM (funny, that's also about what Forbes said the similarly budgeted Venom needed to make to be "worth it").

Considering that it is already just about at the end of its run, it will be a(nother) big money loser for WB.

-J.

What your high-level financial assessment doesn't account for is things such as:

• Local tax incentives (production budget expense reduction)
• Product placement revenue (yes, films actually charge companies for product placement)
• Revenue-share deals with creators and casts (additional expenses)
• Hidden salary deals where actors publicize being paid a rate amount, but actually aren't (passion project sweetheart deals to keep the film profitable)

Hollywood accounting is a very tricky business. So trying to determine profitability even for Deadline is based on industry assumptions and assumed norms. And when we look at films in that 1.8X to 3.0X revenue ratio range, we can see at times they are considered successes and sometimes misses or 'flops'. It just depends on who is telling the story and what message they are conveying.

• Blade: Trinity, Batman and Robin, The Incredible Hulk, Hulk: Definite busts
• Superman II: Not a bust, but not the massive win Superman: The Movie was
• Captain America: The First Avenger: Disney/MCU at the break-even situation knowing there was a bigger plan
• Man of Steel: Made $160M to $170M on product placement before going live, and then did 3.0X budget
• Thor: I guess with the model outlined above this was break-even for Disney/MCU knowing there was a grander plan ahead

Birds of Prey is at 2.2X production budget (prior to any international box office updates this week) and probably will end at 2.4X based on Japan not happening. Big money loser? Probably not. A financial win? Not really. Somewhere in-between.

[Gatsby77]

6 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

This movie's all in for worldwide production, prints and marketing (all upfront, pre-theatrical release costs) is about $185MM.  Right now it has made the following to the studio:

North America:   $80MM @ 50% = $40MM

Foreign (no China):  $110MM @ 40% = $44MM

Total to studio so far:  $84MM

So right now this movie is about $100MM dollars in the red.  Meaning it would need to make another about $200MM with a comparable domestic/foreign split that it has now, just to break even- or about $390MM (funny, that's also about what Forbes said the similarly budgeted Venom needed to make to be "worth it").

Considering that it is already just about at the end of its run, it will be a(nother) big money loser for WB.

-J.

Je-zus H. Christ.

Stop spreading disinformation with your "all-in upfront costs" garbage.

Was waiting for you to chime in with "it needs to gross 4.5x production budget theatrical" or such that you spewed in the Into the Spiderverse thread.

2.5x - 3.0x theatrical is sufficient, based on everything Bosco stated in his response.

Because post-theatrical for this film will *easily* net the studios another $100 million.

That's why P&A isn't included in the 2.5-3.0x production cost shorthand.

Put another way, *every time* you list P&A costs that magically double the production cost of this film from $84.5 million to $185 million, make sure you *also* include the $200 million it will make in post-theatrical (i.e., global rental, global DVD & streaming sales, global TV licensing).

[Bosco685]

Now at 2.3X production budget, falling into the same range category as:

• Captain America: The First Avenger
• Batman Begins
• V For Vendetta
• X-Men: First Class

Unless of course anyone assumes those films lost money.

[D84]

15 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

Now at 2.3X production budget, falling into the same range category as:

• Captain America: The First Avenger
• Batman Begins
• V For Vendetta
• X-Men: First Class

Unless of course anyone assumes those films lost money.

Serious question: WB said they lost money on Justice League, and it was a 2.2.  Do you know what's the difference is between the two, since one is considered a bomb?

[Bosco685]

12 minutes ago, D84 said:

Serious question: WB said they lost money on Justice League, and it was a 2.2.  Do you know what's the difference is between the two, since one is considered a bomb?

Since Justice League ended its run at 2.2X production budget and Birds of Prey is at 2.3X by Day 27  and still actively in theaters, come on back at the end of this run and ask me that question.

Did you assume Birds of Prey had left theaters?

[Bosco685]

20 minutes ago, D84 said:

Serious question: WB said they lost money on Justice League, and it was a 2.2.  Do you know what's the difference is between the two, since one is considered a bomb?

By the way, do you have this article or the quarterly investor call where WB noted it lost money on Justice League? They did. But I wanted to read what you did too.

[D84]

22 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

Since Justice League ended its run at 2.2X production budget and Birds of Prey is at 2.3X by Day 27  and still actively in theaters, come on back at the end of this run and ask me that question.

Did you assume Birds of Prey had left theaters?

I thought it was out of theaters.