BIRDS OF PREY starring Margot Robbie (2020?) 1 1

[theCapraAegagrus]

12 hours ago, D84 said:

Serious question: WB said they lost money on Justice League, and it was a 2.2.  Do you know what's the difference is between the two, since one is considered a bomb?

Obligatory:

#ReleaseTheSnyderCut

[Chaos_in_Canada]

1 hour ago, theCapraAegagrus said:

Obligatory:

#ReleaseTheSnyderCut

[Bosco685]

2 hours ago, theCapraAegagrus said:

Obligatory:

#ReleaseTheSnyderCut

[theCapraAegagrus]

4 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

[Jaydogrules]

4 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

No.You don't.

And that's my point.

You include all of the expenses (i.e., P&A) but then leave out all the post-theatrical profits (literally what Deadline lists as "global rental, global DVD & streaming sales, and global TV licensing"), deriding these as inconsequential "ancillaries" when they account for $50 - $200 million more gross revenue for each film - and *always* off-set the P&A costs.

If you still haven't figured out that I only look at the studios' all-in to actually get its movies into the theaters, I don't know what to tell you.

And, once again, potential post-theatrical revenue streams also carry their own set of costs and there are additional off the tops that I don't factor in either. 

So to repeat myself once again, I ONLY LOOK AT WHAT A MOVIE SPENDS AND MAKES FOR ITS THEATRICAL RELEASE which is perfectly reasonable and gives a very good idea for what a movie "really" needs to make in theaters to hit the black theatrically.  And as I said before, if your movie enters the post-theatrical market $100MM in the hole, you have a problem.  

-J.

[Chaos_in_Canada]

Edited March 6, 2020 by Chaos_in_Canada

[Chaos_in_Canada]

On 3/4/2020 at 5:12 PM, paperheart said:

$250MM give or take

Variety: Why ‘Birds of Prey’ Whiffed at the Box Office

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/birds-of-prey-box-office-disappoints-1203498018/

“Birds of Prey” cost a reported $82 million to produce, with executives at rival studios putting that number as closer to $100 million (due to elaborate sets and CGI), and estimating the film needs to make around $100 million domestically and $300 million globally to break even. Sources close to the production say the breakeven number is closer to $250 million. Hitting those marks could prove difficult overseas, since fears of coronavirus have impacted moviegoing in Asia. However, its R-rating meant the film wasn’t going to open in China in the first place.

[Gatsby77]

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

If you still haven't figured out that I only look at the studios' all-in to actually get its movies into the theaters, I don't know what to tell you.

And, once again, potential post-theatrical revenue streams also carry their own set of costs and there are additional off the tops that I don't factor in either. 

So to repeat myself once again, I ONLY LOOK AT WHAT A MOVIE SPENDS AND MAKES FOR ITS THEATRICAL RELEASE which is perfectly reasonable and gives a very good idea for what a movie "really" needs to make in theaters to hit the black theatrically.  And as I said before, if your movie enters the post-theatrical market $100MM in the hole, you have a problem.  

-J.

But that's not what the studios consider when agreeing to greenlight and finance a film.

A film's profitability calculation isn't measured by theatrical performance alone.

You're ignoring 1/3 of the balance sheet.

So...you're wrong.

And this goes back to Bosco's example a page or so back.

By your misguided "all-in" metric, literally 1/2 of the MCU films lost the studio money.

That's.   Not.   True.

Oh - and so did Batman Begins, etc.

 

[Gatsby77]

1 minute ago, Chaos_in_Canada said:

Variety: Why ‘Birds of Prey’ Whiffed at the Box Office

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/birds-of-prey-box-office-disappoints-1203498018/

“Birds of Prey” cost a reported $82 million to produce, with executives at rival studios putting that number as closer to $100 million (due to elaborate sets and CGI), and estimating the film needs to make around $100 million domestically and $300 million globally to break even. Sources close to the production say the breakeven number is closer to $250 million. Hitting those marks could prove difficult overseas, since fears of coronavirus have impacted moviegoing in Asia. However, its R-rating meant the film wasn’t going to open in China in the first place.

Bosco already dealt with Variety's *widely varying* break-even estimates for this film earlier in this thread as well.

The true number is $230 million - $250 million global theatrical.

(Funny how you bold the "$300 million globally" but ignore the next sentence, which states "closer to $250 million.)

[Bosco685]

14 minutes ago, Chaos_in_Canada said:

Variety: Why ‘Birds of Prey’ Whiffed at the Box Office

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/birds-of-prey-box-office-disappoints-1203498018/

“Birds of Prey” cost a reported $82 million to produce, with executives at rival studios putting that number as closer to $100 million (due to elaborate sets and CGI), and estimating the film needs to make around $100 million domestically and $300 million globally to break even. Sources close to the production say the breakeven number is closer to $250 million. Hitting those marks could prove difficult overseas, since fears of coronavirus have impacted moviegoing in Asia. However, its R-rating meant the film wasn’t going to open in China in the first place.

Repeatedly posting the same article with biased financial results with no lock on reality - classic!

[Jaydogrules]

16 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

But that's not what the studios consider when agreeing to greenlight and finance a film.

A film's profitability calculation isn't measured by theatrical performance alone.

You're ignoring 1/3 of the balance sheet.

So...you're wrong.

And this goes back to Bosco's example a page or so back.

By your misguided "all-in" metric, literally 1/2 of the MCU films lost the studio money.

That's.   Not.   True.

Oh - and so did Batman Begins, etc.

 

You like arguing in circles and taking down imaginary strawmen.

I refer you back to my last post as my response to this.

Good day. 

-J.

Edited March 6, 2020 by Jaydogrules

[Jaydogrules]

21 minutes ago, Chaos_in_Canada said:

Variety: Why ‘Birds of Prey’ Whiffed at the Box Office

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/birds-of-prey-box-office-disappoints-1203498018/

“Birds of Prey” cost a reported $82 million to produce, with executives at rival studios putting that number as closer to $100 million (due to elaborate sets and CGI), and estimating the film needs to make around $100 million domestically and $300 million globally to break even. Sources close to the production say the breakeven number is closer to $250 million. Hitting those marks could prove difficult overseas, since fears of coronavirus have impacted moviegoing in Asia. However, its R-rating meant the film wasn’t going to open in China in the first place.

Exactly.  

And never forget that, according to Forbes as well, that the similarly budgeted Venom needed to make at least $350MM to break even and $400MM THEATRICALLY to be "worth it".  

-J.

Edited March 6, 2020 by Jaydogrules

[Chaos_in_Canada]

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

Exactly.  

And never forget that, according to Forbes as well, that the similarly budgeted Venom needed to make at least $350MM to break even and $400MM THEATRICALLY to be "worth it".  

-J.

 

[Bosco685]

So now that Tiny Boy got that out of his system...

It is going to be interesting to see how home market sales goes over with audiences under 17 with no R-Rating restrictions.

[zhamlau]

So like 90 million budget, 100 million advertising they gotta cover 190,000,000 costs.

it takes in like 190,000,000 million box office...the studio gets 1/2 of that 190m? 1/3?

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by zhamlau

[Bosco685]

5 hours ago, zhamlau said:

So like 90 million budget, 100 million advertising they gotta cover 190,000,000 costs.

it takes in like 190,000,000 million box office...the studio gets 1/2 of that 190m? 1/3?

 

Not so cut and dry as that. Additional consideration:

DEBITS

• Production Budget
• P&A Budget (print ads, digital ads, promotion events, trailers)
• Cast or Creator Revenue Share Deals
• Theater Revenue Share (50% domestic, 60% international, 75% China)
• Home Theater Production Costs (DVD, Bluray, Digital)

CREDITS

• Production Tax Incentives (subtracted from portion of Production Budget)
• Box Office Revenue Share (50% domestic, 40% international, 25% China)
• Product Placement Revenue
• Home Theater Sales (DVD, Bluray, Digital)
• TV & Streaming Home Distribution

So to ignore all this for non-Disney films (those are judged by 'WE made a billion and it only cost $XXXM to make') and a Venom film (  ) misses such studio accounting details. And some of these are extremely difficult to determine, some are common guesstimates, and some are unaccounted for by professional home craphouse Hollywood accountants.

It's a challenging assessment to make. Even for Deadline, when at times it includes studio biases (e.g. Star Wars: The Last Jedi cost $200M to produce  ).

[Bosco685]

Box Office Pro estimates BOP takes in $2.7M domestic this weekend. I'm going to guess slightly lower.

Either way, it takes this film to 2.3X production budget.

[zhamlau]

3 hours ago, Bosco685 said:

Not so cut and dry as that. Additional consideration:

DEBITS

• Production Budget
• P&A Budget (print ads, digital ads, promotion events, trailers)
• Cast or Creator Revenue Share Deals
• Theater Revenue Share (50% domestic, 60% international, 75% China)
• Home Theater Production Costs (DVD, Bluray, Digital)

CREDITS

• Production Tax Incentives (subtracted from portion of Production Budget)
• Box Office Revenue Share (50% domestic, 40% international, 25% China)
• Product Placement Revenue
• Home Theater Sales (DVD, Bluray, Digital)
• TV & Streaming Home Distribution

So to ignore all this for non-Disney films (those are judged by 'WE made a billion and it only cost $XXXM to make') and a Venom film (  ) misses such studio accounting details. And some of these are extremely difficult to determine, some are common guesstimates, and some are unaccounted for by professional home craphouse Hollywood accountants.

It's a challenging assessment to make. Even for Deadline, when at times it includes studio biases (e.g. Star Wars: The Last Jedi cost $200M to produce  ).

I was just figuring a lot of those debits and credits were cancelling out. Otherwise box office numbers are meaningless right? Cause we could never know all the details behind the scene so we couldn’t really know if a film made money.

[Gatsby77]

48 minutes ago, zhamlau said:

I was just figuring a lot of those debits and credits were cancelling out. Otherwise box office numbers are meaningless right? Cause we could never know all the details behind the scene so we couldn’t really know if a film made money.

You're not wrong.

The reason *every* expert uses a 2.5-3.0x production budget multiplier to worldwide theatrical gross ratio to estimate "break-even" is the other lines basically cancel each other out.

Experts don't care about "P&A" expense because - with the exception of extremely low-budget or high-budget films, they're more than off-set by post-theatrical revenue.

Low-budget exceptions: Blumhouse horror movies.

The film itself may only cost $5-$10 million to produce, but the studio typically spends $25-$30 million on advertising. So theatrical break-even is usually $50-$60 million worldwide, as much as 10x "production cost."

Note: 2017's "Get Out" is an even more egregious example of this, as Deadline's end-of-year chart shows it cost just $4.5 million to produce, but P&A came in at $77 million. But in this case, they ramped up the advertising after it was already a monster $90 million domestic hit, and it ultimately grossed more than $175 million worldwide.

Here too, while the global gross revenue was $255 million, the estimated net studio profit from post-theatrical alone was $126 milliion, more than the entire estimated production cost, P&A, profit sharing, etc.

In other words, per Deadline's analysis, Get Out would have been barely profitable *from post theatrical studio profits* alone, and the studio's net take from the theatrical release was pure profit.

High-budget exceptions: The new Star Wars films.

They may cost $200-$250 million to produce, but Disney will then spend as much as $150-$250 million *more* on advertising. Which is highly unusal, and throws theatrical break-even out-of-wack in the opposite direction, to like $850-$900 million worldwide.

On the flipside, Disney has *far* more long-term revenue coming in from licensing of Star Wars films that make over-spending on the films themselves worth it. These include widely popular merchandise (including video games) and theme parks like Galaxy's End.

They're also dealing with brand protection. The Force Awakens is reportedly the most expensive film of the new trilogy. This makes sense because:

a) It had a longer development lead-time, and they developed a new set of characters, etc. from scratch.

b) Much more than just the film itself was at stake -- the viability of another half-dozen (or more) films in the franchise were riding on Episode VII. It had to be a grand slam.

 

Birds of Prey: In this particular case, Birds of Prey has an estimated theatrical break-even of $230 - $250 million.

Which means it had a presumed $84.5 million production budget (actually $97 million before tax incentives).

And $35-$50 million in P&A expenses. Let's be generous and say $75-$85 million in P&A (doubtful).

Then true estimated "break-even" is ultimate revenue of $300-$325 million.

But that only requires $230-$250 million from theatrical, the other $80-$100 million will come from post-theatrical -- the credit line items JayDog conveniently ignores in his ongoing jihad.

Edited March 7, 2020 by Gatsby77

[Bosco685]

1 hour ago, zhamlau said:

I was just figuring a lot of those debits and credits were cancelling out. Otherwise box office numbers are meaningless right? Cause we could never know all the details behind the scene so we couldn’t really know if a film made money.

Why would box office results cancel out on the overall film balance sheet? ALL these details add up to the final results.

So when people start talking about profits, it is all guesstimations in the wild as only the studio has all the details. So to figure out actual break-even, we are guessing.