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The high cost of FF # 48
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246 posts in this topic

3 hours ago, Howling Mad said:

Not if they do a Green Lantern movie the right way.

After BvS and Justice League you are confident? :baiting:

I guarantee whatever DC comes up with the Green Lantern reboot  won't come close to what Kevin Feige will do with Silver Surfer.

These FF#48s will look cheap in a few years after Kevin Feige puts his touch on the Silver Surfer movie.

Edited by ComicConnoisseur
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22 minutes ago, kimik said:

I can remember a time when you were saying that GL was going to be a huge movie.......... :baiting:

A Surfer movie may or may not beat the grosses of those films. By the time it came out there will be so much oversaturation of the market that $600M will be tough to reach. FWIW, how is Ant-Man and the Wasp doing this year? 

I was a lot younger and naive back then when we had that convo in 2010.At the time I had DC on equal footing with Marvel because of the Nolan/Bale Batman movies.

We know how it has turned out since than.

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2 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

I was a lot younger and naive back then when we had that convo in 2010.At the time I had DC on equal footing with Marvel because of the Nolan/Bale Batman movies.

We know how it has turned out since than.

How is Ant-Man 2 doing after the main events of earlier this year? It is tanking even with an extended summer release with no other superhero film competition that benefited GotG and Suicide Squad. There is no guarantee that a Surfer film would fare any better as a B lister. After Black Panther, DP 2 and Infinity War, I think that most comic movie goers were tapped out and it is showing. Mind you, I thought the first Ant-Man film was bad and that Rudd is a weak leading actor (but a decent supporting one) so the box office result is not a surprise. 

We will likely be seeing a market oversaturation soon on comic movies, but until they hit the point where they are generating negative returns they will keep being pumped out. Even if it does not crack $500M WW, Ant-Man is still likely in the black which is all that matters. I would prefer that the studios keep the B and C listers as supporting characters in broader ensemble films/guests in the A list character feature flicks. That way they are still used on the big screen, but the oversaturation point can be delayed or eliminated.

Edited by kimik
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22 minutes ago, kimik said:

How is Ant-Man 2 doing after the main events of earlier this year? It is tanking even with an extended summer release with no other superhero film competition that benefited GotG and Suicide Squad. There is no guarantee that a Surfer film would fare any better as a B lister. After Black Panther, DP 2 and Infinity War, I think that most comic movie goers were tapped out and it is showing. Mind you, I thought the first Ant-Man film was bad and that Rudd is a weak leading actor (but a decent supporting one) so the box office result is not a surprise. 

We will likely be seeing a market oversaturation soon on comic movies, but until they hit the point where they are generating negative returns they will keep being pumped out. Even if it does not crack $500M WW, Ant-Man is still likely in the black which is all that matters. I would prefer that the studios keep the B and C listers as supporting characters in broader ensemble films/guests in the A list character feature flicks. That way they are still used on the big screen, but the oversaturation point can be delayed or eliminated.

You are trying to compare Ant-Man to Silver Surfer? :facepalm:

btw just so everybody knows my good friend Kimik is one of the biggest DC fans I ever encountered on these boards.

That's cool, and I respect that.

But most of us know Marvel movies is what is considered cool and lightning up the social media sites and Hollywood box office.

I will stand by my decision the Silver Surfer movie will beat the next Green Lantern movie at box office.

Honestly, it won't even be close.

:foryou:

 

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44 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

You are trying to compare Ant-Man to Silver Surfer? :facepalm:

btw just so everybody knows my good friend Kimik is one of the biggest DC fans I ever encountered on these boards.

That's cool, and I respect that.

But most of us know Marvel movies is what is considered cool and lightning up the social media sites and Hollywood box office.

I will stand by my decision the Silver Surfer movie will beat the next Green Lantern movie at box office.

Honestly, it won't even be close.

:foryou:

 

The movies stand on their own in terms of making, or breaking a character.   It'll be down to how much budget they want to throw at it, as opposed to a devout inbuilt audience of fans.

The movies are looking to be pitched at the different levels of the movie market, with Ant-man 2 directed squarely at the kids, and Rudd did his part perfectly in that respect.   There's more long term impact in these movies, than any other's, getting the audience at the ground floor.  The marvel movies are setting the standard for entertainment value at the  moment.

It will take a very good writer/director team to take SS to a great cinematic presentation.   Though every good hero needs a good enemy.... Galactus!!!!!

 

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2 hours ago, kimik said:

How is Ant-Man 2 doing after the main events of earlier this year? It is tanking even with an extended summer release with no other superhero film competition that benefited GotG and Suicide Squad. There is no guarantee that a Surfer film would fare any better as a B lister. After Black Panther, DP 2 and Infinity War, I think that most comic movie goers were tapped out and it is showing. Mind you, I thought the first Ant-Man film was bad and that Rudd is a weak leading actor (but a decent supporting one) so the box office result is not a surprise. 

We will likely be seeing a market oversaturation soon on comic movies, but until they hit the point where they are generating negative returns they will keep being pumped out. Even if it does not crack $500M WW, Ant-Man is still likely in the black which is all that matters. I would prefer that the studios keep the B and C listers as supporting characters in broader ensemble films/guests in the A list character feature flicks. That way they are still used on the big screen, but the oversaturation point can be delayed or eliminated.

Not sure where you're getting the idea that Ant Man & The Wasp tanked.  The movie has already turned a profit and it hasn't even been released in China yet.  The movie is projected to cross the $600M mark WW before all is said and done.  Sure, it didn't bring in Black Panther or Infinity War type numbers, but it was never expected to either.

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1 hour ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

You are trying to compare Ant-Man to Silver Surfer? :facepalm:

btw just so everybody knows my good friend Kimik is one of the biggest DC fans I ever encountered on these boards.

That's cool, and I respect that.

But most of us know Marvel movies is what is considered cool and lightning up the social media sites and Hollywood box office.

I will stand by my decision the Silver Surfer movie will beat the next Green Lantern movie at box office.

Honestly, it won't even be close.

:foryou:

 

I agree that comparing Ant-Man and Silver Surfer is like comparing David and Goliath.  The Surfer is one of the most well known Marvel heroes outside of Spidey, Cap, and Hulk.  I think his following teeters on cult-like as I would imagine many non-Marvel fans could tell you who he is.  If you assume a good film and a good trailer are put forth to build hype, then there's no reason why a Surfer movie wouldn't be a smash.  I do not think that simply putting out a Surfer movie though GUARANTEE'S bigger numbers than something like Ant-Man.  Look at Venom.  Hugely popular character, but not a lot of love for the trailers that have been put forth.  And if that follows the likes of FF or ASM2, it's possible that fans might stay home.  All i'm saying is a name doesn't equal box office success.  Secondly, the slate of films that we've gotten have been largely Earth based.  That means it's probably easier to do practical effects.  GotG has been in space, but I think they've made good use of sets and what not.  The Silver Surfer meanwhile spends A LOT of time in space.  I would imagine the production budget would be greater than that of Ant-Man & The Wasp.  Lastly, if you look at the leading men in the Marvel movies to date, you've gotten a lot of lead actors who have been able to pull in female audiences.  Hemsworth, Evans, Pratt, Holland.  Girls swoon over the first 3.  And as for Holland, I was at D23 last year and when he came on stage, boy did the crowd go wild.  The Silver Surfer is gonna be CG.  There won't be some attractive guy there for girls to stare at.  I think when you take all of that into consideration, the Silver Surfer has more of an uphill battle than you may realize.  I think given a well written/produced movie with good word of mouth, $700-$750M would be a theoretical top end estimate.

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A few points here (and for the record, the Surfer is a favorite of mine- been collecting Surfer related books since my childhood during the late '70s).

I'm delighted to see the pride some are taking with having a FF 48 in their collections. FF 48 is the most significant key book to hit the stands during the "later" Silver Age period between '65 - '69 and has always been a a must have book for the first appearances of the Surfer and Galactus -a cameo that is defined in the story's title and a key component to the story. Sure Galactus appears in the last panel but his presence is felt throughout the pages- after all, are we not introduced to the Herald of Galactus? Can we define the Herald without the Devourer of Worlds?. 

The Surfer cannot be compared to Wolverine. Wolverine became the most popular Marvel character on account of his antihero quality and the X-Men. The X-Men surpassed the Fantastic Four along time ago at the dawn of the beginning of the Mutant of Age of Comics. The evolution of Wolverine is unique to the Bronze Age and distinguishes him from his Silver Age Marvel predecessors because he simultaneously grew as an individual character and as part of the most successful team in comic book history. 

Everyone around here knows what my thoughts are about (movies + speculation = artificial/temporary comic book value increase). However, I will mention that with all the hype and speculation about a Surfer-Galactus movie, I'm amazed that there's an assumption the Surfer & Galactus will get a movie before Dr. Doom? Haven't even heard Doom's name mentioned? Haven't seen a FF 5 thread discussing Victor's role in the Fantastic Four and what he means to the success of the great Silver Age team (emphasis on Silver Age)? Wow, Disney is buying Fox entertainment and it's the Surfer and Galactus but no Doom? Incredible (more on this later).

The concept of a superhero family team whose alter egos experience the problems and tensions that many in the real world encounter is the basic formula for the Fantastic Four's success. This concept, however, has already been used in movies so its novelty is wearing off. Back to Incredible. Disney has already come out with an extremely successful franchise of a family of superheroes that has worldwide popularity which translates into, for some, "anyone who sees it must be a fan." Many of us have seen the classic Disney animated films so it means we are fans and go out and buy all things Mickey Mouse- including Mickey's comic books. The Incredibles are the family superhero franchise and will continue to have their place based on the success of the first 2 animated films. Nevertheless, some will say they're not live action films so they don't count. Good luck with that argument in the movie world of CGI special effects.

Let me suggest that those of you who have a FF 48 but don't own FF 5 - get Doom's first appearance. Both are must haves for any Silver Age collection especially since the Silver Age was the apex of their greatness. 

Thankfully, most have at least one copy of FF 48 in their collection and there are always plenty more out there for those that don't have one. The greatest late SA key is also the most accessible. Enjoy your FF 48. I love mine.

 

Edited by bronze johnny
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8 hours ago, ExNihilo said:

Not sure where you're getting the idea that Ant Man & The Wasp tanked.  The movie has already turned a profit and it hasn't even been released in China yet.  The movie is projected to cross the $600M mark WW before all is said and done.  Sure, it didn't bring in Black Panther or Infinity War type numbers, but it was never expected to either.

Box office is over $400 million against a sub-$200 million budget. It will probably make $100 million in profit when it's all said and done. 

I think any studio would take that type of failure any day of the week. 

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7 hours ago, october said:
15 hours ago, ExNihilo said:

Not sure where you're getting the idea that Ant Man & The Wasp tanked.  The movie has already turned a profit and it hasn't even been released in China yet.  The movie is projected to cross the $600M mark WW before all is said and done.  Sure, it didn't bring in Black Panther or Infinity War type numbers, but it was never expected to either.

Box office is over $400 million against a sub-$200 million budget. It will probably make $100 million in profit when it's all said and done. 

I think any studio would take that type of failure any day of the week. 

It wasn't too long ago that if a movie grossed $200-300MIL it was a big deal.

Are we really at the point now that if a movie doesn't hit $1BIL it sucked? lol

A movie about a clear C tier character tops $500MIL and people are saying it's a flop? Wow.

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22 hours ago, kimik said:

IH 181 is plentiful in grade and kept going up, along with how many other keys that are easy to find. What hurt FF #48 is outside of the specualtive runup we are finally seeing now, there was low to middling demand for it. As we have seen with countless other books, demand drives prices more than lower supply. Silver Surfer is maybe a 2nd tier character if you want to go with a broad definition, but that is it. 

I would suggest much of what hurt FF48 is the failed attempt to realize the character on the silver screen (ironic) and Fox's overall inability to make much of the FF franchise in general. I wouldn't think that there was ever low to middling demand for his first appearance, but it did seem like that "next level" of popularity beyond the printed page was outside of his potential until the current merger spec.

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35 minutes ago, Martin Sinescu said:

I would suggest much of what hurt FF48 is the failed attempt to realize the character on the silver screen (ironic) and Fox's overall inability to make much of the FF franchise in general. I wouldn't think that there was ever low to middling demand for his first appearance, but it did seem like that "next level" of popularity beyond the printed page was outside of his potential until the current merger spec.

Was the Silver Surfer that bad in FF 2?  I really didn't think those two movies were bad at all.  The Marvel Cinematic Universe has taken the game to a whole new level, but those two FF movies stand up OK for their time IMHO.  As I recall (it's been a while) the Surfer was portrayed faithfully as an alien trying to figure out humanity and therefore vulnerable to getting caught off guard by Doom ... and he makes a big sacrifice at the end that highlights his power to heal over his power to hurt.  I remember the Surfer coming across as noble and pure and a little bit aloof / unknowable and a little bit naive, which for a first appearance seems about right.  A second movie with the Surfer would presumably allow for a lot more development.

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18 hours ago, ExNihilo said:

I agree that comparing Ant-Man and Silver Surfer is like comparing David and Goliath.  The Surfer is one of the most well known Marvel heroes outside of Spidey, Cap, and Hulk.  I think his following teeters on cult-like as I would imagine many non-Marvel fans could tell you who he is. 

Agree SS > AM.  But Surfer is definitely a tier or two below Spidey/Cap/Hulk.  Everyone knows who they are.  Outside of video game players, non-comic/Marvel fans will not know Surfer.

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On 8/13/2018 at 11:25 PM, VintageComics said:

Yeah, I don't rate the cover to FF #49 higher than 48 either. Always loved #48.

Did you know, you sold me my FF48 about 8-9 years ago?  8.0 - guess how much you sold it to me for (Canadian).

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14 hours ago, tdotcbc84 said:

Did you know, you sold me my FF48 about 8-9 years ago?  8.0 - guess how much you sold it to me for (Canadian).

If I had to guess, maybe $300-400 US? So maybe $500 CAN?

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16 hours ago, 234wallst said:

Agree SS > AM.  But Surfer is definitely a tier or two below Spidey/Cap/Hulk.  Everyone knows who they are.  Outside of video game players, non-comic/Marvel fans will not know Surfer.

That was my point. SS is more equivalent to Ant-Man than Spidey/Cap/Hulk. He is a supporting character like Ant-Man, not a leading one like the others. 

The rest of my point was that as the hero film market becomes oversaturated there should be a corresponding drop in box office takes. Look at Ant-Man 2 - after the huge success of BP, then Infinity War and another strongish DP movie, there is less interest in a solo film for a 2nd/3rd tier property. Could a Surfer stand-alone film be a success? Sure, and a success for it would be the $600 million range, or possibly a bit higher due to the amount of CGI the film will need. However, getting it over the $700 million or $800 million hump would be a much more difficult task. Looking at how many films Marvel has in development, and what AT&T/DC likely will as well, I can see a point soon where the competition between 2nd and 3rd tier property films reduces the box office takes. The studios would be better off leaving those characters as supporting heroes in the big ensemble or top tier property films instead of oversaturating the market. If they want more exposure, do better on the small screen.

Edited by kimik
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16 hours ago, Martin Sinescu said:

I would suggest much of what hurt FF48 is the failed attempt to realize the character on the silver screen (ironic) and Fox's overall inability to make much of the FF franchise in general. I wouldn't think that there was ever low to middling demand for his first appearance, but it did seem like that "next level" of popularity beyond the printed page was outside of his potential until the current merger spec.

FF #48 was a slow seller even last year before the Disney rumors started. A high demand book is one that you can sell copies of at every show (i.e. IH 181 the past 20 years) - FF #48 was not at that level as it would take a number of shows to sell one. It was a low to middling demand book even in early 2017, and would likely still be at that level without the merger speculation. It will be interesting to see what happens to prices if Disney does not announce (not feature, just announce) Surfer in a film within the next year. Will the speculators keep holding their copies? Or, will they dump them to chase the next hot book?

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On 8/17/2018 at 1:43 AM, ExNihilo said:

Not sure where you're getting the idea that Ant Man & The Wasp tanked.  The movie has already turned a profit and it hasn't even been released in China yet.  The movie is projected to cross the $600M mark WW before all is said and done.  Sure, it didn't bring in Black Panther or Infinity War type numbers, but it was never expected to either.

As I stated in the Ant-Man 2 thread, I viewed $600M to be a success for this film (which was lower than what others were posting), but I don't think it will get there. Even with China release looming, I think it is going to struggle to hit that mark due to the release schedule. Thanks to the long delay, how many Chinese viewers will not have already seen it online or elsehwere? It also has MI - Fallout releasing on August 31st in China, where the last MI film did $135M, which will mean increased competition at the theatre. 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, kimik said:

FF #48 was a slow seller even last year before the Disney rumors started. A high demand book is one that you can sell copies of at every show (i.e. IH 181 the past 20 years) - FF #48 was not at that level as it would take a number of shows to sell one. It was a low to middling demand book even in early 2017, and would likely still be at that level without the merger speculation. It will be interesting to see what happens to prices if Disney does not announce (not feature, just announce) Surfer in a film within the next year. Will the speculators keep holding their copies? Or, will they dump them to chase the next hot book?

I wouldn't say it was a slow to middling book.

It was a 'normal' selling key for me for years meaning it did pretty well. Every copy I ever had sold (and I've sold copies from VG to CGC 9.8 (at least 3 or 4 copies).

I remember the last sale of my CGC 9.8 before the book started to dry up in grade. It was about 7 or so years ago and the buyer was terrified he was over paying as the book was softening. I think he paid low teens for the book.

Compared to how quickly movie books go now, yes it was 'slow' but back then EVERYTHING was 'slower'.

But that 'slow' was normal back then. Now we have a new normal.

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On 8/16/2018 at 11:50 PM, ComicConnoisseur said:

You are trying to compare Ant-Man to Silver Surfer? :facepalm:

btw just so everybody knows my good friend Kimik is one of the biggest DC fans I ever encountered on these boards.

That's cool, and I respect that.

But most of us know Marvel movies is what is considered cool and lightning up the social media sites and Hollywood box office.

I will stand by my decision the Silver Surfer movie will beat the next Green Lantern movie at box office.

Honestly, it won't even be close.

:foryou:

 

What happened to Suicide Squad ($740M WW) or Justice League ($650M WW)? :devil:

On 8/16/2018 at 7:23 PM, ComicConnoisseur said:

I guarantee if they make a Silver Surfer movie Marvel style it will beat Justice League, Suicide Squad and Green Lantern at the world wide box office.

You missed/I was not clear with my point, but that is fine. My point is this - there is no guarantee that any 2nd or 3rd tier Marvel or DC character is guaranteed to be a $600M+ movie, let alone a $700M+ film. Especially with the number of films in planning/pre-production/early production. The market is going to become oversaturated with hero films and we will see more fatigue from movie-goers as a result. FWIW, I think that Ant-Man 2 is suffering from that since it came along after BP, IW, and DP2.

 

 

Edited by kimik
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