Comic Book Value Speculation - $3000 to Spend 2 2

[darkstar]

On 2/24/2018 at 1:58 PM, ComicConnoisseur said:

I seriously would expect you to get that at a cheaper price in 5 years. Seems a good many people are losing interest in it. 

 

On 2/24/2018 at 2:01 PM, october said:

Agreed. WD 1's best days are behind it. I expect it to continue a slow downhill slide from here. 

 

[Dark Knight]

I think the WD franchise is still as big as ever with a whole lot of followers and fans.  I don't think the WD 1 book will slide down in price any time soon.  From the last few sales, seems to be selling as much as it has been for a year or two now.  And with the new series that just aired last night, it will reinforce its popularity again.  

[raybowles]

On Saturday, February 24, 2018 at 12:01 PM, october said:

Agreed. WD 1's best days are behind it. I expect it to continue a slow downhill slide from here. 

The one constant claim on these boards over the years is members predicting the downhill slide of Walking Dead #1.  So far every single member has been wrong.

At $500 (CGC 9.8) I heard it would never get higher and it was time to take the money and run. Months later I heard the same thing when it was worth $1,000. Same thing happened at 1,500, $2,000, and now at $2,500.

The show still draws over 10 million viewers every week. The comic still sells well. Season 9 was renewed and Fear the Walking Dead season 4 starts in a couple of months.

Bottom Line: Members predicting the comic will start losing its value is hilarious at this point. I'm glad I never took this advice. Most of my key purchases have been financed by me selling my duplicate WD  copies that all doubled or tripled in value.  Of course it could happen (big drop in value) but nobody knows for sure. 10 years from now the book could easily be worth $5,000.  

The print run for issue #1 is less than 7,500 copies plus years from now when the show eventually ends you know they will make a movie or 2 which will help increase the value.

IMO if WD #1 drops big time I think most of the comic market will drop with it 

 

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by raybowles
Spelling

[sonicyouth1]

People have stopped asking for it at shows this last year so I'm assuming we'll know more this convention season.

where do you get 10 million from..you are about 3 million off the mark bud. Its a fact season 8 had the lowest number of viewers since season 2. http://deadline.com/2017/11/walking-dead-ratings-hit-low-six-years-andrew-lincoln-norman-reedus-amc-1202213137/

This spring/summer we'll see what's selling at shows... so far this year the big books to have on your wall (dealers) are

 

Fantastic Four 48-49, 52

Hulk 181

Af 15

 

Dealers are selling out of FF 48 before doors open. Hulk 181 and AF 15 is no surprise. I think people are prepared to shell out mega bucks this year for them but not Walking Dead. If owned a Walking Dead 9.8 I'd trade it in a heartbeat for a nice 9.0+ FF 48 or Hulk 181. which is something I wouldn't have said 2 years ago.

 

 

 

[raybowles]

1 hour ago, sonicyouth1 said:

People have stopped asking for it at shows this last year so I'm assuming we'll know more this convention season.

where do you get 10 million from..you are about 3 million off the mark bud. Its a fact season 8 had the lowest number of viewers since season 2. http://deadline.com/2017/11/walking-dead-ratings-hit-low-six-years-andrew-lincoln-norman-reedus-amc-1202213137/

This spring/summer we'll see what's selling at shows... so far this year the big books to have on your wall (dealers) are

 

Fantastic Four 48-49, 52

Hulk 181

Af 15

 

Dealers are selling out of FF 48 before doors open. Hulk 181 and AF 15 is no surprise. I think people are prepared to shell out mega bucks this year for them but not Walking Dead. If owned a Walking Dead 9.8 I'd trade it in a heartbeat for a nice 9.0+ FF 48 or Hulk 181. which is something I wouldn't have said 2 years ago.

 

 

 

This was written this past October:

Including Season 8, all of the season premieres now rank, from first to last according to demo rating, as follows:
Season 5 (8.7, 17.29 million)
Season 7 (8.4, 17.03 million)
Season 4 (8.2, 16.11 million)
Season 6 (7.4, 14.63 million)
Season 3 (5.8, 10.86 million)
Season 8 (5.0, 11.4 million)
Season 2 (3.8, 7.26 million)
Season 1 (2.7, 5.35 million)

Nevertheless, “The Walking Dead” is one of few shows that could experience such a steep decline and still remain in solid ratings shape. Compared to the other top-rated scripted shows on television, it remains the number one show on television in the key demo.

One more thing I never said Walking Dead #1 was the best investment in comics.  I never compared it to any of the 3 books you listed above.  In fact if I had $3,000 to invest it would not be one of my top 10 picks.  My point is for ample years I have read time after time members predicting the decline of this comic/series.  On every occasion they have been wrong.   Nobody knows how long this show will remain on the air and nobody knows what the value will be 10 years from now but if I had to guess it would be worth a lot more 10 years from now.  One thing a lot of people are forgetting is the print run for issue #1.  There are less than 7,300 copies out there and even this past month I could not find any issues of Walking Dead before issue #100 at 7 different comic stores in Orange County.  

The series is not as hot as it once was but it still draws millions of people each week and besides Game of Thrones it's the only TV show I consistently hear people talk about when I'm at work/church/out in the public.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by raybowles

[oakman29]

4 hours ago, raybowles said:

The one constant claim on these boards over the years is members predicting the downhill slide of Walking Dead #1.  So far every single member has been wrong.

At $500 (CGC 9.8) I heard it would never get higher and it was time to take the money and run. Months later I heard the same thing when it was worth $1,000. Same thing happened at 1,500, $2,000, and now at $2,500.

The show still draws over 10 million viewers every week. The comic still sells well. Season 9 was renewed and Fear the Walking Dead season 4 starts in a couple of months.

Bottom Line: Members predicting the comic will start losing its value is hilarious at this point. I'm glad I never took this advice. Most of my key purchases have been financed by me selling my duplicate WD  copies that all doubled or tripled in value.  Of course it could happen (big drop in value) but nobody knows for sure. 10 years from now the book could easily be worth $5,000.  

The print run for issue #1 is less than 7,500 copies plus years from now when the show eventually ends you know they will make a movie or 2 which will help increase the value.

IMO if WD #1 drops big time I think most of the comic market will drop with it 

 

 

I completely agree. 

Ive heard this same thing about many comics, including AF 15, TMNT 1, etc. etc. 

I personally think that WD 1 is THE grail of the modern age,and that it will keep rising in price.

You have the perfect storm. Desirability, low production, and now an icon in pop culture.

There are far too few books, and far too many people wanting one.

I said this before, and I'll say it again. This book will one day get to the price range of the TMNT 1's

So naysayers have fun with your predictions, it will happen regardless of your thoughts of demise.

[NoMan]

3 hours ago, raybowles said:

 I could not find any issues of Walking Dead before issue #100 at 7 different comic stores in Orange County.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What comic shops in Orange County have a good selection of vintage comics? I really think I traversed that place. There's the guy that has the shop with lots of $1.00 - 2.00 BA and CA books that are great deal for reading books, but a "Wall Book" back issue kinda shop, where?

[october]

Looks like I hit a nerve with The Walking Dead fan boys.

Sorry to burst your collective bubbles, but check out GPA. A lot of red arrows in almost every grade. Most prices are either flatlined or well off of their highs, 9.6s especially. Obviously it's always going to be a desired book, and never going to be cheap, but I also don't see it spiking enough for it to ever be a particularly good place to park money. 

[raybowles]

8 hours ago, oakman29 said:

I completely agree. 

Ive heard this same thing about many comics, including AF 15, TMNT 1, etc. etc. 

I personally think that WD 1 is THE grail of the modern age,and that it will keep rising in price.

You have the perfect storm. Desirability, low production, and now an icon in pop culture.

There are far too few books, and far too many people wanting one.

I said this before, and I'll say it again. This book will one day get to the price range of the TMNT 1's

So naysayers have fun with your predictions, it will happen regardless of your thoughts of demise.

+1.  Great post IMO.

[october]

Here are the average monthly price charts for 9.8, 9.6 and 9.4. What about these looks encouraging? Great looking if you bought in 2015 or earlier, not so much if you bought and held after that. 

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by october

[october]

8 hours ago, oakman29 said:

I completely agree. 

Ive heard this same thing about many comics, including AF 15, TMNT 1, etc. etc. 

I personally think that WD 1 is THE grail of the modern age,and that it will keep rising in price.

You have the perfect storm. Desirability, low production, and now an icon in pop culture.

There are far too few books, and far too many people wanting one.

I said this before, and I'll say it again. This book will one day get to the price range of the TMNT 1's

So naysayers have fun with your predictions, it will happen regardless of your thoughts of demise.

Except it isn't rising in price. At all. 

[october]

Here's viewership. Yes, a lot of people still watch, but the trend is obvious and it doesn't paint a positive picture. 

 

 

[1Cool]

I don't watch the show anymore since its just way too slow a show compared to other shows I watch.  I use to buy Walking Dead books if they looked nice and now I won't grab them unless they are dirt cheap.  The few I've got left are not selling so why add to the inventory of ice cold books.  I of course don't have keys left but in general I don't see anyone searching for WD books and none of the dealers are buying that I've seen.  The books are not Preacher cold but still not where I'd put my money.

Edited February 27, 2018 by 1Cool

[Dick Pontoon]

On 2/25/2018 at 12:09 PM, NoMan said:

I'm still interested in the question of how far back does movie hype speculation go if anyone's got an answer. Did media (tv) speculation start with marvel's 1967 animated stuff?

No. Movie/media hype speculation didn’t begin until Batman in the '90s. And it’s only been in the last 10-odd years or so that it has really ramped up.

In the old days prices generally moved upwards slowly and steadily over a period of years.

[darkstar]

3 hours ago, october said:

Looks like I hit a nerve with The Walking Dead fan boys.

This response? Again?

I will repost what I wrote the last time my argument for investing in Walking Dead #1 long-term was suggested because I'm a fan of the property.

"But you see, you've made the mistake in believing that I am a fan of The Walking Dead. I've read the first issue once, never owned it, and it remains the only issue I've ever read from the series. The lowest issue I've ever owned was #38 and I believe I've owned probably less than twenty Walking Dead books ever. I've seen the first season of the show in its entirety, after that I've watched episodes from time to time. You don't need to be a fan of the book or the show to recognize the property's place in modern comics or comic book history."

You should pay special attention to that last sentence, because it will have a far larger impact on the book's value for the rest of our lives than the fact the property once had a television show or two.

3 hours ago, october said:

Sorry to burst your collective bubbles, but check out GPA. A lot of red arrows in almost every grade. Most prices are either flatlined or well off of their highs, 9.6s especially. Obviously it's always going to be a desired book, and never going to be cheap, but I also don't see it spiking enough for it to ever be a particularly good place to park money. 

Sorry to burst your bubble, but what the book is doing right now is irrelevant to what the book will be doing long term. Also, a spike would imply instability, which is not something you want when "parking" money in an investment. 

[RockMyAmadeus]

16 hours ago, raybowles said:

 

The print run for issue #1 is less than 7,500 copies

 

 

[Logan510]

3 hours ago, october said:

Except it isn't rising in price. At all. 

Pfft. Who in their right mind is going to take cold, hard data over feeling and opinion? Get with it already

[darkstar]

43 minutes ago, Logan510 said:

Pfft. Who in their right mind is going to take cold, hard data over feeling and opinion? Get with it already

For starters, you should probably take into account recency bias before attempting to prognosticate long-term.

[october]

19 minutes ago, darkstar said:

For starters, you should probably take into account recency bias before attempting to prognosticate long-term.

No one is talking about long term. The timeframe is 2-5 years as stipulated in the first post. If you think two straight years of flatlined or declining prices and a 50% drop in viewership aren't relevant in that time frame, all I can say is "good luck".

[mackenzie999]

If you end up buying IH181 raw, don't forget to check for the value stamp.