Silver age Pence vs Cent 2 2

[serling1978]

8 minutes ago, valiantman said:

The market is heavily driven by math, even if collectors themselves aren't math lovers (or don't want to believe it comes down to math). 

Here's what I mean:

There are 1,800 CGC graded copies of Incredible Hulk #1 (1962) and let's say that 99% of buyers prefer the "cents" edition to the "pence".  There's a long-term well-established market for both types where the "pence" copies are significantly cheaper than "cents".

The same CGC census shows 97.5% of the graded copies are "cents" and 2.5% are "pence"... and since 99% of our hypothetical buyers prefer "cents", there is more demand (99%) than supply (97.5%) for cents copies... but what would it take for that to change?

Do more than half of collectors need to switch (change their thinking) to preferring "pence" to make them worth more than cents copies?

I don't think so. 

I think if just 3% of these hypothetical collectors decided they'd like a "pence" copy, instead of the hypothetical 1%, the prices could flip.  After all, there are only 2.5% pence copies and 3% demand would be "too little supply" for pence.  Meanwhile, 97.5% cents copies with 97% of the demand would be "too much supply" for cents.

Math hurts my brain, but i think that made sense

[Kevin.J]

1 hour ago, serling1978 said:

Damn. Sounds like you have some serious runs (no poop joke intended ).  Is there a separate thread about runs? I'd like to get in on that......

You could always start one 

[serling1978]

7 minutes ago, Kevin.J said:

You could always start one 

Haha I might. I'll search first so I'm not "that guy". 

[Frisco Larson]

5 hours ago, valiantman said:

The market is heavily driven by math, even if collectors themselves aren't math lovers (or don't want to believe it comes down to math). 

Here's what I mean:

There are 1,800 CGC graded copies of Incredible Hulk #1 (1962) and let's say that 99% of buyers prefer the "cents" edition to the "pence".  There's a long-term well-established market for both types where the "pence" copies are significantly cheaper than "cents".

The same CGC census shows 97.5% of the graded copies are "cents" and 2.5% are "pence"... and since 99% of our hypothetical buyers prefer "cents", there is more demand (99%) than supply (97.5%) for cents copies... but what would it take for that to change?

Do more than half of collectors need to switch (change their thinking) to preferring "pence" to make them worth more than cents copies?

I don't think so. 

I think if just 3% of these hypothetical collectors decided they'd like a "pence" copy, instead of the hypothetical 1%, the prices could flip.  After all, there are only 2.5% pence copies and 3% demand would be "too little supply" for pence.  Meanwhile, 97.5% cents copies with 97% of the demand would be "too much supply" for cents.

I agree that statistics play a significant role in determining markets trends, but that's not the entire picture. I believe that there are still FAR more uncertified copies of BOTH cents and pence copies of Hulk #1 out there in the collecting community, so going by CGC's census alone will only give you a portion of extant copies to draw your conclusions from (and we should probably include copies graded by other grading companies too). I think many other factors play into this subject. For example, many collectors may be bound to a budget when considering a key issue purchase and the price spread alone may influence them to purchase a pence copy over a cents copy, not because they prefer it, but more likely because it's what they can afford. In that particular case, one would be misguided if they believed the pence copy was purchased due to preference, rather than economics. Which brings up the point that nobody really knows for sure why someone purchases one version over the other (unless of course they TELL you). Also, some collectors don't buy or want their comics certified as they prefer to get their hands on them and read them. The copies they'd be interested in would be "undocumented" in the statistics you're using to draw your conclusions, but they are still every bit as much of a factor in the marketplace. Additionally, using quantified census numbers and inserting hypothetical guesses as to how many collectors want which books is far from a scientific process and would likely produce inaccurate results. I don't think that simply "crunching the numbers" will provide an accurate overall picture when trying to predict price increases in comics, especially when you're working with incomplete information. There are a lot of variables to consider. My 2c.

[valiantman]

The ungraded books (cents or pence) do not factor into the graded market, nor are they even quantifiable, so leaving a mathematical variable open that can't be used is a waste of time (and text to even suggest it). Call it an unknown and ignore it. 

 

We've got 20+ years of CGC grading in the CGC census with 97.5% cents and 2.5% pence for Hulk #1 on over 1,800 copies. 

 

If we can't draw any conclusions after 20 years of grading, I'm thinking your tombstone should read "wake me up in 1,000 years and tell me how the cents/pence thing turned out. I didn't want to be hasty."

[Kevin.J]

I still think we are looking at this with an "experts" eye, a lot of people I used to know who collect comics just dont look that deep into it, some have collections from when they were a kid, the are like me and couldnt care less if if its a Pence or Cents, I bet some here in the UK dont even realise the difference.

BTW I bought a Hulk 1 Pence by choice

[Unstoppablejayd]

New addition... I personally I think the value of a pence grail can not be beat... especially if anyone ever takes notice of the scarcity vs cents.

 

[mec3437]

Totally agree.  I just bought some SA and BA X-Men pence books yesterday from a European seller.  Go figure, right?  I've been lazy about working on my X-Men pence run lately, so it's time to get back on it.

[Pantodude]

On 5/10/2020 at 3:50 PM, Frisco Larson said:

I collect a LOT of comics that most others don't, like issues from other countries for example. I personally LIKE the idea of the pence copies being available and actually would like to have a matching pence and cents copy in my collection, or at least where it's feasible to do so. I think they'll probably always be less valuable than the cents copies, as there is a tremendous herd mentality in comic collecting and I believe it would take quite a swing in popular opinion to make a significant change in the market. If I had to guess, I would say the main reason that they sell for less is that when it comes to larger sums of money, people are much more cautious and likely don't trust that there is enough of an established sales history for them to "gamble" on a foreign copy over an American one with a much larger proven sales history, but that's just a guess. If you're talking about a hundred or two, most collectors wouldn't be very concerned, but when it's multiple thousands, then then would likely question a purchase much more before making a decision. My 2c. 

Respecfully, your  does not make any sense!      Isn't the whole point that the "foreign" bit is a misconception that has resulted in an irrational price imbalance?   The Marvel pence "Type 1a"  price variants were made HERE at the same time (and on the same machines, and using the same ink, and by the same workers) as the cents version but were slated for distribution in the UK, much like the Canadian variants, which were slated for Canada.   If the Canadian variants are not considered foreign and fetch a premium due to relative scarcity, then clearly the same should hold true for the Marvel pence "Type 1a" price variants.    (Of course, if the Canadian variants ARE considered foreign and fetch a premium anyway, then the disparate treatment of the pence variants is even more irrational!)   In other words, like the Canadian  variants, whose price relies on the established sales history of the regular cents version plus a premium, the price of early SA pence versions should rely on the established sales history of the 12 cent versions plus a premium due to relative scarcity.  Not very difficult at all!   So the risk aversion, if that is the reason, is irrational. [Edited to remove incorrect reference to 35-cent versions...we're only talking about Canadian].

Edited February 9, 2021 by Pantodude

[Frisco Larson]

4 minutes ago, Pantodude said:

Respecfully, your  dont make any sense!      Isn't the whole point that the "foreign" bit is a misconception that has resulted in an irrational price imbalance?   The Marvel pence "Type 1a"  price variants were made HERE at the same time (and on the same machines, and using the same ink, and by the same workers) as the cents version but were slated for distribution in the UK, much like the 35cent versions, which were slated for Canada.   If the 35 centers are not considered foreign and fetch a premium, then clearly the same should hold true for the Marvel pence "Type 1a" price variants.     

It doesn't (or dont as you say)? What doesn't make sense to you? The fact that I think there will always be a difference? 

[Pantodude]

4 minutes ago, Frisco Larson said:

It doesn't (or dont as you say)? What doesn't make sense to you? The fact that I think there will always be a difference? 

I edited my post a bit after-the-fact, so perhaps you could look at that, but I was referring to your calling them "foreign copies"  -- the whole point made by the others in this thread is that they are NOT foreign copies.  They are treated differently for a baseless reason, when seen in the proper light of how the 35 cent variants have fared.  BTW, I initially said "it dont" trying to be cute, and I changed it knowing that some folks -- ahem -- would jump on that to be a bit annoying.  

Edited July 22, 2020 by Pantodude

[Frisco Larson]

49 minutes ago, Pantodude said:

I edited my post a bit after-the-fact, so perhaps you could look at that, but I was referring to your calling them "foreign copies"  -- the whole point made by the others in this thread is that they are NOT foreign copies.  They are treated differently for a baseless reason, when seen in the proper light of how the 35 cent variants have fared.  BTW, I initially said "it dont" trying to be cute, and I changed it knowing that some folks -- ahem -- would jump on that to be a bit annoying.  

I understand now. If you reread my initial post, I refer to them as pence copies in the beginning and it's only when I'm speaking speculatively in reference to the hesitant collector who likely doesn't understand exactly what they are, do I call them foreign copies. I say that from experience, that some collectors and dealers that I've met that don't really understand them, call them that.

I mentioned  your "dont" merely as an example of unnecessary criticism, but you already knew that.    No worries here, it's cool. 

[Frisco Larson]

Hey, check THIS out! I got this in last week!

[Frisco Larson]

This too.

[Frisco Larson]

This three.  

[Get Marwood & I]

Four coming? 

[Frisco Larson]

Just 3

[Pantodude]

Who woulda thunk that you actually dig these variants!   That's what I get for joining the party late.   Anyway, your Tales books tickled a memory of mine so I did a quick look and found this!   

This is unusual, isn't it, because it retained the MONTH under the issue number?  I haven't ever seen that.  

Edit:  Only TWO on the CGC census?  328 for the 12 centers.   My book has been around a bit, so not a slab candidate.  But only TWO?  The pattern appears to hold.  

Edited July 22, 2020 by Pantodude

[Pantodude]

I also have this one!   This thread by Colosuss is Awesome! was cool (and thanks Get Marwood & I for that thoughtful older, prior thread on variants--very well done).  I now appreciate this book more (and all the other books posted on this thread) and hope to find more in my collection.  Now I'm kinda bummed that I am almost done with my collecting projects, without having sought these out before.   My wife has been super cool with my hobby buys to date on the assumption that I was winding down last year or so.  She will kill me if I start another project for pence variants!

Edited July 22, 2020 by Pantodude

[Pantodude]

In looking for more variant goodness in my stuff, I found this.   I am assuming this "1/-" price means pence variant.  Actually means shilling!  Damn inflation.  

 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Pantodude