• When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.

Art Prices
3 3

257 posts in this topic

Today at comic art con, I had the pleasure of speaking with many fellow collectors about the market and prices of art in general.

One thing that almost everyone agrees on, when you are trying to buy, prices in most cases are high.  But a question I asked other collectors and ask collectors here is this.....

In 2008, we felt prices were high. Today, we regret not buying more or say how cheap things were then. When we move forward another 10 years, what will we say about prices today? With OA being such a young hobby, its hard to know for sure. Will prices keep going up at the same rate? Slow down?

So if you see a piece you love and can afford, isn't it better just to bite the bullet and buy it? In 10 years you may look back and regret it?

Thoughts?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@AnkurJ your premise is correct as long as you see the market going up. I know that for comics and toys and such - every year new stuff costs more than previous years. and yesterday's prices on most items usually feel cheaper when looking back.   a lot of folks I meet will say about a purchase ' its expensive' - but not if you try to imagine what that item might cost in the future. I think for me any way - its got mostly to do with budget. how much do I have to spend.  Even if I feel an item will go up, - I am constrained to some extent by my budget. Also  - it is possible to overpay for stuff.  For example when buying of coolyness. Perhaps the market will catch up to their prices in the future - but how long is that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A+ level material is never going to drop in price only increase. Its not a matter of if it will increase. Its by how much and how quickly.

Take for example the recent Romita  asm #100 cover . This  particular cover is never going to go down in value.

In fact it will only increase. And at a rate greater than anyone can imagine. The sky is the limit on this cover.

Why you ask? Well, its so unique because it has 34 head shots plus the largest full figure of Spider-man on any Romita ASM cover. All done in Romita's prime!

( and it does not hurt that its a milestone 100 issue, only second marvel title to reach 100 issues at the time )

Take for instance the Silver Surfer #4 cover. Its one of a kind . One of the most iconic Marvel covers EVER.

No matter what the price tag you can't replace it so someone will always pay a premium for it.

Same with the ASM #100, Same with ASM #50, Same with ASM #122 , etc....... if you can't replace it . Than it's  A+ level material and you will never lose on it.

 

Remember if it's A+ MATERIAL it will always be treated as such. Now the trick is to understand what category your purchase falls under .

Once you understand that you can price accordingly . Original Comic book art is still in its infancy stages. There is tons of art that is undervalued.

Give it another 5 years and wait how the market booms. How long have you heard about the bubble bursting ?

The reality is that its purely wishful thinking. While it is true that some art will always appreciates at a faster rate than other art, for one reason or another .

The truth of the matter is that quality will always fetch a high price. Buy what you love , buy what you can afford.

And understand that this is art, so not everyone will agree with you. Educate yourself  first . And than trust in yourself that you have a good enough eye for quality.

Than just buy, buy, buy! or in 5 years you may cry! cry! cry!

Educate your self first and foremost!  

Also those super high end examples i mentioned like the  Romita ASM #100 cover are just that,.... examples.  

There are many examples of wonderful underrated original art for reasonable prices  ( $500-$1200 a page).

This art will mature nicely over time . Look what happened with the Don Heck market in the last 5 years .

Artists like Jose Luis Garcia Lopez, and Steve Rude are super under valued. 

You can purchase quality original art on any budget.  You just have to ask yourself what quality means to you?

Edited by MarvelComicsArt
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

7 hours ago, AnkurJ said:

So if you see a piece you love and can afford, isn't it better just to bite the bullet and buy it? In 10 years you may look back and regret it?

This subject has come up before, some of which by me.  IMO, if you are looking to buy stuff as a long term investment with a 20 year horizon, OA is a lousy idea. Collectibles, in general, have values which rise and fall with generations. So, what used to be booming hobbies in toy trains and porcelain dolls is sinking or dead. We also had a boom/bust in Beanie Babies (and artificial collectible). 

If the average collector is in his (and from what I can tell, this is mostly a male hobby) mid-40's to mid-50's, I think there is still at least 10 good years left for very good material. Other stuff will generally go up or be static, with some drops at the lower end. 

My suggestion is you buy what you like, but only from "free cash" and not investment funds.

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Prices are too high, I am now out of the running for most of the 70s-80s art. The thing that is the oddest to me is there used to be a pecking order to artists page values, but look at any big auction and you see the lesser artists' work prices rapidly climbing towards the true giants. You just scratch your head and wonder who is paying so much for that artist's work. I think you all have seen it, if you haven't, you must be the guy buying expensive bad art ; )

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it would be a mistake to say that original art prices will continue to climb, even if we restrict it to A+ material. We may already be seeing some leveling off of prices for some A+ art already. There was a time when some of Kirby's silver age art were sold at some of the highest prices at that time. But I do not believe any of it sold for what Romita's ASM #100 did. Now I am not saying ASM #100 was not worth it and I am not comparing the artistic or historic significance between the two artists. But there was a time when Kirby art consistently went for more than Romita art, but I wonder if we are not seeing a shift in how the art market values them. I would not expect to see Kirby prices drop anytime soon, but it is possible that the price of Kirby art may not be on the same upward trajectory that they once were.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  Plenty of Kirby goes for big bucks.   Refer to gumbydarnit’s post.   I think what you are seeing there is what he was referring to.    Context (title, character, first appearance, publisher, etc etc ) is becoming more important than artist in many ways with pages or covers by artists not traditionally well regarded hitting high sums if the piece is memorable for any reason.   

And honestly, that’s how it should be IMO.  

In the same vein a Romita can sell for more than a Kirby if it’s the right Romita.    And a Frenz can sell for more than a Romita if it’s the right Frenz.   And a Larsen could sell for more than Frenz if it’s the right Larsen.   Etc

Edited by Bronty
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am not saying that the right Romita could not go for more than a Kirby, just that there was a time that no Romita went for any where near the best Kirby work. And if context has become more important than artist, than that alone would indicate a change affecting price trajectories. The idea that value of original art will always go up is, IMO, not justified. While that has been the case in the past if you look at other collectables you will see that such a trajectory is not always maintained. There was a time when paintings from the French Academy got the highest prices but tastes changed and prices dropped dramatically. Now ASM #100 may in fact be exceptional and not indicative of change in the valuation of Romita art, but I believe there is at least one dealer who has priced another Romita ASM at 400K. If we are seeing a shift in taste then we can expect to see a shift in pricing as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nothing goes up forever. Collectors have limited funds (unfortunately). Pieces which go for record highs in auctions may end up with the winners' curse.

2008 may not be a good starting point as this is when credit became relatively easier to obtain due to the quantitative easing measures taken by central banks. Record low interest rates helped push up prices. Production prices in China have also increased as quality of life improved resulting in higher prices asked for new pieces (statues and toys). In the past 10 years, there has not been a major recession or downturn - it will be interesting to see how the OA market (and the larger comic market) fares when the next major downturn happens. Another factor which is pushing up prices would be the collectors aged between 40 to 55 who are now at their earning prime.  They may be buying OA for nostalgic reasons, reminding of their childhood memories (I am guilty of that) hence, paying beyond rationale. A collector who collected GA OA, commented that he saw the same crazy buying for GA OA years ago, only to see subsequently limited interest for GA OA. 

I think whether today's OA prices can continue to sustain would be whether the next generation of collectors (the 20 to 40 cohort) will have the same interest and where would be the subsequent generation of comic collectors come from - my children are not into comics, they are simply too distracted by other stuff on the internet ...

  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1.  High quality assets can be risky, and low quality assets can be safe - it all depends on what you pay.  No asset is so good that it can't become a bad buy at too high a price (no, these aren't quotes by Vodou, they're from billionaire investor Howard Marks)

2.  Demography is destiny.  

3.  The trend is your friend...until it ends.  Just ask the Thanksgiving Turkey:

"Consider a turkey that is fed every day," Taleb writes.  "Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race 'looking out for its best interests,' as a politician would say.  "On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief."

"Consider a collector of original comic art.  Every single auction result and dealer price increase will firm up the collector's belief that it is the general rule of life that OA prices go up over time and that other collectors and dealers are all looking out for their best interest in terms of maintaining/increasing market prices.  Just look at how well the market fared in 2008, they will say, even though the largest cohort of collectors today (41-50) was 10 years' younger then and will be 10 years older in 2028 and will be AARP members 10 years further still in 2038.  One day they will wake up and incur a revision of belief."

5aafd6272c691_turkeytaleb.png.47db41d53b7bea1592c588db427e2dfb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is an interesting thought.

Has anyone got an example, within their own collection, of a piece which they held for too long, with regrets?

David

(edit)  I have numerous examples within my collection which have gone down in FMV (IMO), but I'm trying hard to think of any art that I regret buying.

OK, I just remembered all the Jaime Diaz Studio Brazil "Little Lulu" art I got.  Two or three hundred dollars worth at auction.  And still probably worth the three dollars a page I paid.  But, still no regrets!  With many color guides!

Edited by aokartman
clarify
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, LonelyPost said:

Nothing goes up forever. Collectors have limited funds (unfortunately). Pieces which go for record highs in auctions may end up with the winners' curse.

2008 may not be a good starting point as this is when credit became relatively easier to obtain due to the quantitative easing measures taken by central banks. Record low interest rates helped push up prices. Production prices in China have also increased as quality of life improved resulting in higher prices asked for new pieces (statues and toys). In the past 10 years, there has not been a major recession or downturn - it will be interesting to see how the OA market (and the larger comic market) fares when the next major downturn happens. Another factor which is pushing up prices would be the collectors aged between 40 to 55 who are now at their earning prime.  They may be buying OA for nostalgic reasons, reminding of their childhood memories (I am guilty of that) hence, paying beyond rationale. A collector who collected GA OA, commented that he saw the same crazy buying for GA OA years ago, only to see subsequently limited interest for GA OA. 

I think whether today's OA prices can continue to sustain would be whether the next generation of collectors (the 20 to 40 cohort) will have the same interest and where would be the subsequent generation of comic collectors come from - my children are not into comics, they are simply too distracted by other stuff on the internet ...

  

This is similar to what I wrote in a Comics General post the other day (you can substitute OA examples for the comic book anecdotes):

Eventually, it is far more likely to be demographics/aging that causes this hobby/market to enter into a long-term secular decline, not an economic downturn (though, that may certainly accelerate/accentuate it).  The market looks great right now, but, the long-term seeds of decline were planted in the mid-1990s when future generations' interests were split into an infinite number of directions with the sweeping changes of the Information Age.  Future generations simply will not have the numbers, interest or financial resources in the aggregate to clear the market at today's prices, let alone ever-escalating prices.  Most Boomers and Gen Xers couldn't even buy their collections over again from scratch if they had to; the Millennials and Gen Zers, not even having the same level of exposure/interest, let alone having as good earning prospects or the benefit of the easiest interest rate and most bubblicious asset value conditions to build wealth, will have NO chance whatsoever [to clear the market at current, let alone even higher prices].  NONE [as in its almost a mathematical impossibility; at best, they will be able to clear certain segments of the market at current/higher prices - maybe that's the A+ material, maybe it's the low-end, or, maybe this is all just wishful thinking].

I've long since stopped trying to pinpoint when the inflection point will occur, but, it's like a cumulative probability function:  the farther out you go, the greater the chance that we will have hit the secular peak of the hobby where it doesn't get any better for the vast majority of the market.  I mean, sure, maybe there's a case to be made that Action #1, etc. remain on upward trajectories (though, frankly, I do not subscribe to that theory...but, that is another debate), but, there will come a point when the vast majority of the market hollows out over time.  10 years?  20 years?  30 years?  I'd say within 30 years is a near-metaphysical certainty, and that even 20 years is probably a stretch.  Not that the market/hobby will implode overnight by any means (and, let me be clear:  no one is saying that it's going away completely or that truly iconic, desirable books will suddenly become near-worthless), but, 20 years from now?  Yeah, I'm pretty sure by that point we will be looking back and saying the best days of the hobby are behind it.  Demography is Destiny. 2c 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

1.  High quality assets can be risky, and low quality assets can be safe - it all depends on what you pay.  No asset is so good that it can't become a bad buy at too high a price (no, these aren't quotes by Vodou, they're from billionaire investor Howard Marks)

2.  Demography is destiny.  

3.  The trend is your friend...until it ends.  Just ask the Thanksgiving Turkey:

"Consider a turkey that is fed every day," Taleb writes.  "Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race 'looking out for its best interests,' as a politician would say.  "On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief."

"Consider a collector of original comic art.  Every single auction result and dealer price increase will firm up the collector's belief that it is the general rule of life that OA prices go up over time and that other collectors and dealers are all looking out for their best interest in terms of maintaining/increasing market prices.  Just look at how well the market fared in 2008, they will say, even though the largest cohort of collectors today (41-50) was 10 years' younger then and will be 10 years older in 2028 and will be AARP members 10 years further still in 2038.  One day they will wake up and incur a revision of belief."

5aafd6272c691_turkeytaleb.png.47db41d53b7bea1592c588db427e2dfb.png

very well said and illustrated !!! Will use this for future reference with fellow OA collectors 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

This is similar to what I wrote in a Comics General post the other day (you can substitute OA examples for the comic book anecdotes):

Eventually, it is far more likely to be demographics/aging that causes this hobby/market to enter into a long-term secular decline, not an economic downturn (though, that may certainly accelerate/accentuate it).  The market looks great right now, but, the long-term seeds of decline were planted in the mid-1990s when future generations' interests were split into an infinite number of directions with the sweeping changes of the Information Age.  Future generations simply will not have the numbers, interest or financial resources in the aggregate to clear the market at today's prices, let alone ever-escalating prices.  Most Boomers and Gen Xers couldn't even buy their collections over again from scratch if they had to; the Millennials and Gen Zers, not even having the same level of exposure/interest, let alone having as good earning prospects or the benefit of the easiest interest rate and most bubblicious asset value conditions to build wealth, will have NO chance whatsoever [to clear the market at current, let alone even higher prices].  NONE [as in its almost a mathematical impossibility; at best, they will be able to clear certain segments of the market at current/higher prices - maybe that's the A+ material, maybe it's the low-end, or, maybe this is all just wishful thinking].

I've long since stopped trying to pinpoint when the inflection point will occur, but, it's like a cumulative probability function:  the farther out you go, the greater the chance that we will have hit the secular peak of the hobby where it doesn't get any better for the vast majority of the market.  I mean, sure, maybe there's a case to be made that Action #1, etc. remain on upward trajectories (though, frankly, I do not subscribe to that theory...but, that is another debate), but, there will come a point when the vast majority of the market hollows out over time.  10 years?  20 years?  30 years?  I'd say within 30 years is a near-metaphysical certainty, and that even 20 years is probably a stretch.  Not that the market/hobby will implode overnight by any means (and, let me be clear:  no one is saying that it's going away completely or that truly iconic, desirable books will suddenly become near-worthless), but, 20 years from now?  Yeah, I'm pretty sure by that point we will be looking back and saying the best days of the hobby are behind it.  Demography is Destiny. 2c 

Speaking to my kids who are now 19 and 16, drove home your above observations. Although they are surrounded by books, comics and comic related stuff, they have zero interest in comics. None of my friends are into comics and neither are their children. We are a dying breed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, hmendryk said:

I am not saying that the right Romita could not go for more than a Kirby, just that there was a time that no Romita went for any where near the best Kirby work. And if context has become more important than artist, than that alone would indicate a change affecting price trajectories. The idea that value of original art will always go up is, IMO, not justified. While that has been the case in the past if you look at other collectables you will see that such a trajectory is not always maintained. There was a time when paintings from the French Academy got the highest prices but tastes changed and prices dropped dramatically. Now ASM #100 may in fact be exceptional and not indicative of change in the valuation of Romita art, but I believe there is at least one dealer who has priced another Romita ASM at 400K. If we are seeing a shift in taste then we can expect to see a shift in pricing as well.

Nothing stands still.   Tastes change, demographics driving the market (bronze is hot!  Then copper is hot!   Now 90s is hot!) change and affect values.    New school has gone up over and over again as the collecting population ages.    Romita was once new school to the Kirby/ditko old school.    That time has long since passed and so you’d not just notice Romita pieces catching up to ditto you’d expect it (much as I abhor the idea as I think ditko is far more desirable).    Yet even as I type that I am reminded it’s spiderman not ditko or Romita that is really collected here and if neither had worked on Spider-Man (and marvel in general) no one would care about either of them.     

If people stop caring about Spider-Man at these prices then as Gene suggests it all falls apart whether it’s ditko, Romita, McFarlane, whatever

Edited by Bronty
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

... (no, these aren't quotes by Vodou, they're from billionaire investor Howard Marks)

Aw...wtf did I do to get singled out? ;)

Gil Cohen Executioner ta da moon baby!!!!!!!! lollollol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bronty said:

Yet even as I type that I am reminded it’s spiderman not ditko or Romita that is really collected here and if neither had worked on Spider-Man (and marvel in general) no one would care about either of them.     

Too true. Romita would still be regarded as a gga (of a sort) artist and thus niche collected, same as Matt Baker. Ditko...phew...falling more into the Wolverton, Kurtzman, et al school of extreme 'cartooning'. Niche again, but not uncollectible. But also NOT 6 figures :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, vodou said:

Too true. Romita would still be regarded as a gga (of a sort) artist and thus niche collected, same as Matt Baker. Ditko...phew...falling more into the Wolverton, Kurtzman, et al school of extreme 'cartooning'. Niche again, but not uncollectible. But also NOT 6 figures :)

100% .    Which takes us full circle on this little discussion as it’s context (character , publisher, era) driving the value much more so than artist

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
3 3