Fantastic Four #48 Thread 3 3

[shane1956]

No only that but, I would add that FF #48 has an iconic cover while ST110 and Hulk 180 are a little bland by comparison  Like it or not in the age of CGC books cover is often king. 

Edited April 17, 2018 by shane1956

[Callaway29]

16 minutes ago, KirbyJack said:

The Surfer is only one part of FF 48's appeal. 

True, but my point stands. Perhaps them not being on the cover IS subconsciously part of the “price suppression” as well. Personally, I’m one of those “Hulk 180 is the true first appearance” guys, so I’m just making an objective observation here, that’s been made before...but not nearly as frequently as the other two keys I mentioned.

[fantastic_four]

2 hours ago, shane1956 said:

the hard CGC census evidence does NOT support the notion that "Huge" amounts exist in high grade

Yes, definitely, because you could just think that the importance of the key accounts for why it has been submitted more.  It's the ideas in these forums of dealers with stacks of high grade copies of FF 48 in the 1970s and 1980s along with multiple copies with Mile High 2 certificates that establish it was present in multiple warehouse finds.  That's in addition to MUCH higher numbers for non-key issues from the same month on all the other Marvel titles suggesting something about that month makes something special about those issues being found in warehouses.

[Kevin76]

28 minutes ago, fantastic_four said:

Yes, definitely, because you could just think that the importance of the key accounts for why it has been submitted more.  It's the ideas in these forums of dealers with stacks of high grade copies of FF 48 in the 1970s and 1980s along with multiple copies with Mile High 2 certificates that establish it was present in multiple warehouse finds.  That's in addition to MUCH higher numbers for non-key issues from the same month on all the other Marvel titles suggesting something about that month makes something special about those issues being found in warehouses.

Well its unfortunate that these "warehouse copies" didn't maintain their NM/MT condition over the years. 

[tdotcbc84]

7 hours ago, fantastic_four said:

Yes, definitely, because you could just think that the importance of the key accounts for why it has been submitted more.  It's the ideas in these forums of dealers with stacks of high grade copies of FF 48 in the 1970s and 1980s along with multiple copies with Mile High 2 certificates that establish it was present in multiple warehouse finds.  That's in addition to MUCH higher numbers for non-key issues from the same month on all the other Marvel titles suggesting something about that month makes something special about those issues being found in warehouses.

Can you comment a little bit more about the Mile High 2 Certificates?

I'm so lost   You make it sound like there is a fort knox of comic books somewhere.

 

Please entertain me with a history story    And are these comics still stored away???

[fantastic_four]

I think I said almost everything I know about why February/March 1966 Marvels are so much more available than other Silver Age Marvels.  My understanding is that all the warehouse finds containing those issues were bought by dealers by the 1980s.  The only specific one I know details of was Mile High 2 which was bought by Chuck in 1985.  I have no real idea how many were in warehouses, why they were there, or what the average grades of them were, but I think Chuck claims that his Mile High 2 comics were unsold newsstand copies that were returned to the distributor and were supposed to be destroyed but weren't.  I'm not sure he knows for sure that all of the millions of comics were there for the same purpose though.  

Aside from simply noticing through the CGC Census that Feb/Mar 1966 Marvels are clearly more abundant than surrounding issues from the middle Silver Age, my source for all this is dealers who posted what they knew here in these forums.  I'll search around and see if I can find some of their posts.  The ones I saw were in the mid-2000s, and searching those is quite a pain with our search function.

Edited April 18, 2018 by fantastic_four

[Callaway29]

Regardless of abundance, I'm confident this book's future is bright. Which means, I'm also confident I'll regret recently selling my ticket.... There's a lot of wisdom in acquiring multiple copies of books you believe in...

[fantastic_four]

47 minutes ago, Callaway29 said:

I'm confident this book's future is bright.

I'm skeptical due to the supply.  Undoubtedly even with the jump it took last year it has performed worse for me over the last decade than every other Silver Age key I own.  Not that I care all that much because it's one of my top five favorite Silver Age stories and the story that got me into collecting FF to begin with.

If a really good film featuring Silver Surfer or Galactus came out I'd feel differently.  But dollar for dollar FF 52 has been a far better buy for the past two decades.  Not because it's in more demand--definitely the demand for FF 48 is very high and it's a MAJOR mid-Silver key, if not THE major mid-Silver key--but because the supply is significantly lower for FF 52 it has appreciated far more, even years ago before the movie was announced.

Edited April 18, 2018 by fantastic_four

[fantastic_four]

Does anyone know why the issue jumped in price last year?

[fantastic_four]

56 minutes ago, fantastic_four said:

1 hour ago, Callaway29 said:

I'm confident this book's future is bright.

I'm skeptical due to the supply.  Undoubtedly even with the jump it took last year it has performed worse for me over the last decade than every other Silver Age key I own.  Not that I care all that much because it's one of my top five favorite Silver Age stories and the story that got me into collecting FF to begin with.

Note I'm referring here only to the amount of increase per year it will continue to see.  I definitely have no reason to think it will go down, I just don't see any reason for now why it would break from its past performance of not increasing at anywhere close to the same rate as other Silver Age Marvel keys.  I'm sure it will continue to increase at a rate that beats inflation as it has to date.

[Kevin76]

5 hours ago, fantastic_four said:

I'm skeptical due to the supply.  Undoubtedly even with the jump it took last year it has performed worse for me over the last decade than every other Silver Age key I own.  Not that I care all that much because it's one of my top five favorite Silver Age stories and the story that got me into collecting FF to begin with.

If a really good film featuring Silver Surfer or Galactus came out I'd feel differently.  But dollar for dollar FF 52 has been a far better buy for the past two decades.  Not because it's in more demand--definitely the demand for FF 48 is very high and it's a MAJOR mid-Silver key, if not THE major mid-Silver key--but because the supply is significantly lower for FF 52 it has appreciated far more, even years ago before the movie was announced.

FF 52 is another common book, People could say they are skeptical because of the supply of Hulk 181's...look how that is turning out?  Besides, FF 48 has a much better cover than the 52. It's all about demand, it's not like they printing up more FF 48's with 6 other variant covers by 6 different artists. I wouldn't worry about FF 48's future. You won't be digging these up in dollar boxes saying "Wow, I remember when these used to sell for thousands,now they are dollar books!  

[shane1956]

It's a fair comment to say that it's one of if not the biggest key book post 1963. After you get past the original Marvel releases of ASM 15, TOS 39, X-Men #1, etc , this book is THE book for serious Marvel collectors. It's not going down in price or demand. The Silver Surfer is key to the Marvel Universe. 

[Jaydogrules]

....and in other news.

A 7.5 just sold for  $2k on eBay.  

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Fantastic-Four-48-1st-App-Silver-Surfer-CGC-7-5-Press-It-For-NM-Results/112941868046?hash=item1a4bdc240e:g:N2AAAOSwgONa0-Fc&redirect=mobile

Book ain't going nowhere.  

-J.

[tdotcbc84]

19 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

....and in other news.

A 7.5 just sold for  $2k on eBay.  

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Fantastic-Four-48-1st-App-Silver-Surfer-CGC-7-5-Press-It-For-NM-Results/112941868046?hash=item1a4bdc240e:g:N2AAAOSwgONa0-Fc&redirect=mobile

Book ain't going nowhere.  

-J.

So does this effectively make my 8.0 worth more than $2kUSD?

Right right right?

[oakman29]

32 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

....and in other news.

A 7.5 just sold for  $2k on eBay.  

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Fantastic-Four-48-1st-App-Silver-Surfer-CGC-7-5-Press-It-For-NM-Results/112941868046?hash=item1a4bdc240e:g:N2AAAOSwgONa0-Fc&redirect=mobile

Book ain't going nowhere.  

-J.

WOW! Even at that price I wouldnt sell mine.

[fantastic_four]

14 hours ago, Kevin76 said:

FF 52 is another common book

The Census tells a different story.

• FF 48 - 37 9.8, 84 9.6, 114 9.4
• FF 52 - 5 9.8, 13 9.6, 31 9.4
• Spidey 33 - 39 9.8, 107 9.6, 114 9.4

There are four times as many high grade copies of #48 as there are of #52.  But you could plug in any other early to mid Silver Age key in place of FF #52 and get similar multiples of available supply as compared to #48.

48 isn't the only issue that's in high supply due to warehouse finds; #44 is similarly available.  So is #59.  There are a few others I'd have to search my memory and the Census for to recall them.  I hunted for nosebleed copies of FF throughout the 2000s, so I eventually became familiar with their scarcity and populations.

[Callaway29]

2 hours ago, fantastic_four said:

The Census tells a different story.

• FF 48 - 37 9.8, 84 9.6, 114 9.4
• FF 52 - 5 9.8, 13 9.6, 31 9.4
• Spidey 33 - 39 9.8, 107 9.6, 114 9.4

There are four times as many high grade copies of #48 as there are of #52.  But you could plug in any other early to mid Silver Age key in place of FF #52 and get similar multiples of available supply as compared to #48.

48 isn't the only issue that's in high supply due to warehouse finds; #44 is similarly available.  So is #59.  There are a few others I'd have to search my memory and the Census for to recall them.  I hunted for nosebleed copies of FF throughout the 2000s, so I eventually became familiar with their scarcity and populations.

This came up recently on the boards, and the consensus was it's a "common" book...but not in high grade. That's the distinction...

However, with the drastic price increase, I'm sure the CGC census is already climbing...

[Kevin76]

8 hours ago, fantastic_four said:

The Census tells a different story.

• FF 48 - 37 9.8, 84 9.6, 114 9.4
• FF 52 - 5 9.8, 13 9.6, 31 9.4
• Spidey 33 - 39 9.8, 107 9.6, 114 9.4

There are four times as many high grade copies of #48 as there are of #52.  But you could plug in any other early to mid Silver Age key in place of FF #52 and get similar multiples of available supply as compared to #48.

48 isn't the only issue that's in high supply due to warehouse finds; #44 is similarly available.  So is #59.  There are a few others I'd have to search my memory and the Census for to recall them.  I hunted for nosebleed copies of FF throughout the 2000s, so I eventually became familiar with their scarcity and populations.

I'm sure there's more than 114 people in this world that want a 48 in 9.4  

Edited April 19, 2018 by Kevin76

[Kevin76]

17 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

....and in other news.

A 7.5 just sold for  $2k on eBay.  

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Fantastic-Four-48-1st-App-Silver-Surfer-CGC-7-5-Press-It-For-NM-Results/112941868046?hash=item1a4bdc240e:g:N2AAAOSwgONa0-Fc&redirect=mobile

Book ain't going nowhere.  

-J.

Not to mention the terrible wrap 

[fantastic_four]

22 minutes ago, Kevin76 said:

8 hours ago, fantastic_four said:

The Census tells a different story.

• FF 48 - 37 9.8, 84 9.6, 114 9.4
• FF 52 - 5 9.8, 13 9.6, 31 9.4
• Spidey 33 - 39 9.8, 107 9.6, 114 9.4

There are four times as many high grade copies of #48 as there are of #52.  But you could plug in any other early to mid Silver Age key in place of FF #52 and get similar multiples of available supply as compared to #48.

48 isn't the only issue that's in high supply due to warehouse finds; #44 is similarly available.  So is #59.  There are a few others I'd have to search my memory and the Census for to recall them.  I hunted for nosebleed copies of FF throughout the 2000s, so I eventually became familiar with their scarcity and populations.

I'm sure there's more than 114 people in this world that want a 48 in 9.4  

Just as there were tens of millions of people in this world who would have wanted any of the million dollar houses that tanked in the housing bubble.  The question in any market is how many are willing to pay more than market price for a desirable item to keep pushing it up in price?  When you know the next ComicLink auction will have yet another 9.4 or 9.6 copy of FF 48, that number pushes downward over time in relation to the prospect of being able to buy another 9.4 copy of FF #52 when a copy only shows up every 6 to 12 months.