Any sellers here experiencing a slowdown in sales or resistance to price due to the recent stock market down trend? 1 1

[James J Johnson]

I see signs of resistance in other hobbies in March and April. Two ways it can affect this hobby's marketplace. Less confidence in the stock market = more money invested in collectibles rather than stocks. Or 2) Less confidence in the stock market = less confidence in the economy = less willing to invest in anything during the downtrend. Any sellers with input?

[ADAMANTIUM]

It could just be tax time.

People got there money back spent it on ebay coupons and there was an uptick....Mayne just back to normal?

People more well off may just now be paying taxes because they owed etc. I know a lot of businesses in richer neighborhoods that suffer this time of year. 

[James J Johnson]

9 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

It could just be tax time.

People got there money back spent it on ebay coupons and there was an uptick....Mayne just back to normal?

People more well off may just now be paying taxes because they owed etc. I know a lot of businesses in richer neighborhoods that suffer this time of year. 

Could be. Basing my observations on a number of different hobby venues, the typical springtime downward spiral appeared to me to be markedly more steep than usual. I find myself thinking "This didn't get any bids or taken outright" far more often than is usual for this time of year. I was thinking that almost 1700 point market decrease within 5 minutes may have scared off potential investors in all areas. People less willing to part with their money after seeing how that went down, and questioning how that was possible.

[1Cool]

1 hour ago, James J Johnson said:

I see signs of resistance in other hobbies in March and April. Two ways it can affect this hobby's marketplace. Less confidence in the stock market = more money invested in collectibles rather than stocks. Or 2) Less confidence in the stock market = less confidence in the economy = less willing to invest in anything during the downtrend. Any sellers with input?

Seems about the same lately- definetely not a slow down in my sales.

[James J Johnson]

14 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

Seems about the same lately- definetely not a slow down in my sales.

It's definitely more noticeable in other venues, from what I've seen. In this one, it appears that demand through movie hype is partly staving off that down trend, for now. That's the one advantage that this hobby has over others. An instant shot in the arm when a movie is released that re-perpetuates demand and interest.

[ygogolak]

No way you can relate these two. You're looking at a small window, like a Wednesday Warrior.

[ComicConnoisseur]

3 hours ago, James J Johnson said:

I see signs of resistance in other hobbies in March and April. Two ways it can affect this hobby's marketplace. Less confidence in the stock market = more money invested in collectibles rather than stocks. Or 2) Less confidence in the stock market = less confidence in the economy = less willing to invest in anything during the downtrend. Any sellers with input?

Comic books, sportscards, and video games are still strong. 

Just about any hobby that has certification does well.

A lot of the other old collectibles/hobbies have become stagnant.

Really key comics are gold as long as they keep making movies and tv shows.

A top collectible hobby right now.

Now the stamps and lionel trains I would worry about if I was a stamp or lionel train collector. My grand uncle took me to some stamp and train shows. Man, I don't think I saw anyone under 75 there.

 

 

[oakman29]

4 hours ago, James J Johnson said:

I see signs of resistance in other hobbies in March and April. Two ways it can affect this hobby's marketplace. Less confidence in the stock market = more money invested in collectibles rather than stocks. Or 2) Less confidence in the stock market = less confidence in the economy = less willing to invest in anything during the downtrend. Any sellers with input?

I try to look at it as not investing , so whether there's a down turn or a upswing  it's all the same to me. 

I'm a collector , not an investor. 

[James J Johnson]

2 hours ago, ygogolak said:

No way you can relate these two. You're looking at a small window, like a Wednesday Warrior.

Oh sure you can. Many view the stock market as a barometer of the economy. Less confidence in the economy = less willing to spend "mad-money", that is, on non-essential items. Expenditure on necessities. i.e. food, car repair, medical, tuition, etc., etc. taking precedence where doubt enters the equation. Let's face it, when push comes to shove, nobody really needs to spend $20,000 on a NM FF 52, maybe because they were impressed with the movie, but we all need to eat and sleep with a roof over our heads. And if confidence wanes that there may not be someone there to buy that same investment for at least the same $20,000, the buyer may pause and opt to pocket the money for a rainy day, or spend it elsewhere. I see all of the collectible marketplaces as part of the same system. It's one large pool, filled with a set amount of fluid, always in flux, moving from one cylinder to another, just like the stock market, and integrated with it, as such, behaving like a barometer of the economy and confidence in it.

Edited April 7, 2018 by James J Johnson

[James J Johnson]

1 hour ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

 

Now the stamps and lionel trains I would worry about if I was a stamp or lionel train collector. My grand uncle took me to some stamp and train shows. Man, I don't think I saw anyone under 75 there.

 

 

The Lionels took a hit broadside the day they started running off sets again using the old, original molds, which were warehoused.

Edited April 7, 2018 by James J Johnson

[darkstar]

6 minutes ago, James J Johnson said:

Oh sure you can. Many view the stock market as a barometer of the economy. Less confidence in the economy = less willing to spend "mad-money", that is, on non-essential items. Expenditure on necessities. i.e. food, car repair, medical, tuition, etc., etc. taking precedence where doubt enters the equation. Let's face it, when push comes to shove, nobody really needs to spend $20,000 on a NM FF 52, maybe because they were impressed with the movie, but we all need to eat and sleep with a roof over our heads. And if confidence wanes that there may not be someone there to buy that same investment for at least the same $20,000, the buyer may pause and opt to pocket the money for a rainy day, or spend it elsewhere. I see all of the collectible marketplaces as part of the same system. It's one large pool, filled with a set amount of fluid, always in flux, moving from one cylinder to another, just like the stock market, and integrated with it, as such, behaving like a barometer of the economy and confidence in it.

the amount of fluid is not set and the sales you speak of only represent a tiny amount of overall transactions within the hobby. 

[James J Johnson]

9 minutes ago, darkstar said:

the amount of fluid is not set and the sales you speak of only represent a tiny amount of overall transactions within the hobby. 

I think it is set. IMO, a certain pool of buyers each keep a certain amount of money invested into the whole. Sometimes new money comes in. Someone getting their feet wet that was told or felt it was a good arena to invest in and they jump in, but those are the tiny amount. Most of us in this hobby have a certain amount invested that IMO doesn't vary all that much. And that amount that we have invested into the books on our shelves, whether they're held short or long term is dictated by our disposable cash and willingness to sit on a certain amount of cash. How many time have you heard a collector in any venue say, "I really want that. But I'll have to sell W, X, and Y to buy Z"? I think the overall amount of money that collectors have invested into this hobby is actually fairly constant. It must be or we'd see a lot more fluctuation in prices than we do. The fact that most books tend to sell at or near the GP price points to this. There would be far more variation if what you propose is true.

Edited April 7, 2018 by James J Johnson

[James J Johnson]

1 hour ago, oakman29 said:

I try to look at it as not investing , so whether there's a down turn or a upswing  it's all the same to me. 

I'm a collector , not an investor. 

+1. I too, am a collector. That's why it's called a hobby. It's supposed to be fun. As soon as you have to stress over whether something might be sold at a loss, it's work. Not a diversion.

[Readcomix]

7 hours ago, James J Johnson said:

I think it is set. IMO, a certain pool of buyers each keep a certain amount of money invested into the whole. Sometimes new money comes in. Someone getting their feet wet that was told or felt it was a good arena to invest in and they jump in, but those are the tiny amount. Most of us in this hobby have a certain amount invested that IMO doesn't vary all that much. And that amount that we have invested into the books on our shelves, whether they're held short or long term is dictated by our disposable cash and willingness to sit on a certain amount of cash. How many time have you heard a collector in any venue say, "I really want that. But I'll have to sell W, X, and Y to buy Z"? I think the overall amount of money that collectors have invested into this hobby is actually fairly constant. It must be or we'd see a lot more fluctuation in prices than we do. The fact that most books tend to sell at or near the GP price points to this. There would be far more variation if what you propose is true.

But you also said "just like the stock market," which confused me and I'm guessing @darkstar too. The amount of money in the economy is anything but set; money is constantly being created, regularly thru the Fed's "QE," and constantly every time a mortgage is written. You certainly clarified what you were getting at above, but it's also not inconceivable that collectors are among those getting their hands on a share of the new money and playing with/alternative investing a slice of it in their hobbies.

[spreads]

7 hours ago, James J Johnson said:

Oh sure you can. Many view the stock market as a barometer of the economy. Less confidence in the economy = less willing to spend "mad-money", that is, on non-essential items. Expenditure on necessities. i.e. food, car repair, medical, tuition, etc., etc. taking precedence where doubt enters the equation. Let's face it, when push comes to shove, nobody really needs to spend $20,000 on a NM FF 52, maybe because they were impressed with the movie, but we all need to eat and sleep with a roof over our heads. And if confidence wanes that there may not be someone there to buy that same investment for at least the same $20,000, the buyer may pause and opt to pocket the money for a rainy day, or spend it elsewhere. I see all of the collectible marketplaces as part of the same system. It's one large pool, filled with a set amount of fluid, always in flux, moving from one cylinder to another, just like the stock market, and integrated with it, as such, behaving like a barometer of the economy and confidence in it.

I have 15 years experience in the equity markets (in both proprietary trading and at the institutional level (with over 50 billion in AUM)) .There's far too much randomness to put a small blip in a short period of market volatility to say that is causing a delay in sales.  I have stuff posted online and locally and there's no direct correlation why some stuff sells quicker than others - I will never be able to figure it out. 

I think if you're concerned about a downtrend in the collectible markets, you should look at the gradual rising interest rate environment we're currently in.  But this is a much, much longer-term affect.   

[darkstar]

8 hours ago, James J Johnson said:

I think it is set. IMO, a certain pool of buyers each keep a certain amount of money invested into the whole. Sometimes new money comes in. Someone getting their feet wet that was told or felt it was a good arena to invest in and they jump in, but those are the tiny amount. Most of us in this hobby have a certain amount invested that IMO doesn't vary all that much. And that amount that we have invested into the books on our shelves, whether they're held short or long term is dictated by our disposable cash and willingness to sit on a certain amount of cash. How many time have you heard a collector in any venue say, "I really want that. But I'll have to sell W, X, and Y to buy Z"? I think the overall amount of money that collectors have invested into this hobby is actually fairly constant. It must be or we'd see a lot more fluctuation in prices than we do. The fact that most books tend to sell at or near the GP price points to this. There would be far more variation if what you propose is true.

well you would be wrong.

[ygogolak]

9 hours ago, James J Johnson said:

Oh sure you can. Many view the stock market as a barometer of the economy. Less confidence in the economy = less willing to spend "mad-money", that is, on non-essential items. Expenditure on necessities. i.e. food, car repair, medical, tuition, etc., etc. taking precedence where doubt enters the equation. Let's face it, when push comes to shove, nobody really needs to spend $20,000 on a NM FF 52, maybe because they were impressed with the movie, but we all need to eat and sleep with a roof over our heads. And if confidence wanes that there may not be someone there to buy that same investment for at least the same $20,000, the buyer may pause and opt to pocket the money for a rainy day, or spend it elsewhere. I see all of the collectible marketplaces as part of the same system. It's one large pool, filled with a set amount of fluid, always in flux, moving from one cylinder to another, just like the stock market, and integrated with it, as such, behaving like a barometer of the economy and confidence in it.

Sorry, no. You're assuming everyone views their personal financials the same way as you. My comic money and my work paycheck are two separate accounts. They do not cross streams. Live within your means and you will be fine.

In regards to the window you are looking at, how does this graph look to you?

 

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

I see a sleeping gorilla, lying on an incline toward the left. but, I also see a wolf with raised hairs and ears, facing right.

Did I pass, Doc?

[Aweandlorder]

Where? On eBay?

if so, I can tell you one thing I learned about eBay. They always play with sellers listings. Like. Always

they control who's listings they will boost and who they won't and they always move it around. I'm a top seller on eBay. Been selling for close to a decade. It's always up and down for me even though I have hundreds of listing, competitive prices and a top seller status. I learned to live with it. 

And no, I won't attribute it to a down time or any economy backlash crisis because I also have an Amazon store and I can tell you that 99 percent of the time my eBay store is slow, Amazon is still kicking a** as always. Amazon is a lot more stable for me sales wise throughout the year as opposed to eBay. 

But hey, it's their system so they make the rules. I learned to accept it

Edited April 7, 2018 by Aweandlorder

[Callaway29]

14 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

Sorry, no. You're assuming everyone views their personal financials the same way as you. My comic money and my work paycheck are two separate accounts. They do not cross streams. Live within your means and you will be fine.

In regards to the window you are looking at, how does this graph look to you?

 

It looks like a graph with no context...a title and X/Y axis would be helpful.