Action Comics #1 Cover OA...still exists?!?
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47 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I'm of the view that you almost always have to consider it from the usual suspects POV, because all the mooted alternatives (Saudi princes, Russian oligarchs, Eminem, Hugh Jackman, Tobey Maguire, etc.) invariably never end up walking away with any of this stuff.  That's not to say that no billionaires, foreigners or celebrities are into this material, as tth2 always incorrectly paints my view - but, empirically, if any of those end up winning big pieces, it's because they have been into comics for a long time (e.g., Lucas, Hariri, Cage, Lasry, etc.).  No museum board or celebrity or investment fund without a prior, longstanding personal connection to the comic world is going to suddenly decide they need to drop $15 or $20 million on the Action #1 cover if it became available.  And, no one in our hobby is going to think they need to pay 5-7x the cost of an Action #1 9.0 or 10x a Ditko Spidey complete story or 10-15x the Hulk #181 cover or 30-40 covers of the quality of ASM #50, Silver Surfer #4, etc. to buy something like this.  Ain't gonna happen.  2c 

I get that view, its persuasive in a way.    I just don't have that same level of conviction because this would rightfully be an extreme outlier.    Action 1 9.0 and ditko stories aren't even the comparables.    Mile High Action 1 and the AF15 story are the comparables.    And those aren't likely to sell any time soon.     Hulk 181 cover isn't a bad comparable and its one where we'd actually potentially see a sale one day, but I'm clearly more bullish than you on what that would sell for.    You seem to be pegging it at what, 1m?    I'd say 2+.   Maybe that's exuberance on my part as its certainly a huge check to write.    Its no Ron Wilson.  :banana:       But I really don't think so.     I think the 181 cover would be fought tooth and nail.   I think its many times more desirable than the 180 page 2c  (although the numbers would get big enough to limit what would otherwise be the multiple).

I think a prospective bidder for 181 would know its the best thing they are likely to see in years and years, and would have Herge and Uderzo and Crumb and Frazetta price points to work with beyond the 180 price point.    Now, all of those are flawed comparables in one way or another.     But that's a truly "holy cow" kind of piece.    I think you're underselling it.

Edited by Bronty

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1 hour ago, Bronty said:

...admission will be free!

Oh. Didn't catch that. I'm on the wrong coast to even give a eff :)

1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

I think it will be viable - they're casting a wide net with traditional representative art, illustration art, comic art, movie-related art, children's book-related art, digital art, etc.  Plus, it's Lucas, it's L.A./Hollywood, it's going to be in a space and building that people will want to check out, etc.  Even if they got the Action #1 cover (if it existed), it wouldn't be the main draw for most by any stretch of the imagination. 2c 

I'm not sure it will be viable. The future capital of the financial world (and thus the cultural world to follow) is not going to be London, Paris, or NYC - it'll be somewhat further...East ;) Maybe the next decade or even two will be high times for Western narrative art and the Lucas but I don't believe that will be the case beyond that. What do 6 billion Red Chinese give a fig about...Indiana Jones? Surely they have their own historical and contemporary cultural touchstones? I wouldn't know...which is why I'll be left out (of course!)

I do think Action #1 is the touchstone of Western Superiority via Imperialism though. For as long as that matters lol

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6 minutes ago, vodou said:

What do 6 billion Red Chinese give a fig about...Indiana Jones?

And I'll add if it's Mumbai instead, well they're still pissed the Thuggee didn't come out on top in Indy 2!

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24 minutes ago, Bronty said:

I get that view, its persuasive in a way.    I just don't have that same level of conviction because this would rightfully be an extreme outlier.    Action 1 9.0 and ditko stories aren't even the comparables.    Mile High Action 1 and the AF15 story are the comparables.    And those aren't likely to sell any time soon.     Hulk 181 cover isn't a bad comparable and its one where we'd actually potentially see a sale one day, but I'm clearly more bullish than you on what that would sell for.    You seem to be pegging it at what, 1m?    I'd say 2+.   Maybe that's exuberance on my part as its certainly a huge check to write.    Its no Ron Wilson.  :banana:       But I really don't think so.     I think the 181 cover would be fought tooth and nail.   I think its many times more desirable than the 180 page 2c  (although the numbers would get big enough to limit what would otherwise be the multiple).

I think a prospective bidder for 181 would know its the best thing they are likely to see in years and years, and would have Herge and Uderzo and Crumb and Frazetta price points to work with beyond the 180 price point.    Now, all of those are flawed comparables in one way or another.     But that's a truly "holy cow" kind of piece.    I think you're underselling it.

10-15x on a $15-20 million range is anywhere from $1 million to $2 million.  I think Hulk #181 would be guaranteed at $1 million hammer by any auction house lucky enough to get it, so $1.2 million would be the likely floor including the BP (with the reserve being met easily IMO).  I suspect that $2 million would contain the action, though, and would peg a $2 million+ result at 25% probability or less.  Not implausible, but, improbable for sure.  It's a great cover and would be contested tooth and nail, sure, but, is it really worth 5-10 large art Romita ASM covers?  If you're saying that Hulk #181 is worth, say, $2.5 million, where does that put GSXM 1?  Is it worth more than, say, the entire ASM #33 complete story?  

I think a lot of people just think "oooh, shiny!!" whenever something big hits the auction block (or the thought of something big as in the case of Hulk #181 and Action #1, the latter of which we aren't even sure still exists) and invariably end up overestimating how much people will actually pay for them. 2c  

Edited by delekkerste

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7 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

10-15x on a $15-20 million range is anywhere from $1 million to $2 million.  I think Hulk #181 would be guaranteed at $1 million hammer by any auction house lucky enough to get it, so $1.2 million would be the likely floor including the BP (with the reserve being met easily IMO).  I suspect that $2 million would contain the action, though, and would peg a $2 million+ result at 25% probability or less.  Not implausible, but, improbable for sure.  It's a great cover and would be contested tooth and nail, sure, but, is it really worth 5-10 large art Romita ASM covers?  If you're saying that Hulk #181 is worth, say, $2.5 million, where does that put GSXM 1?  Is it worth more than, say, the entire ASM #33 complete story?  

I think a lot of people just think "oooh, shiny!!" whenever something big hits the auction block (or the thought of something big as in the case of Hulk #181 and Action #1, the latter of which we aren't even sure still exists) and invariably end up overestimating how much people will actually pay for them. 2c  

You're asking the wrong guy.    In that position, I'd be willing to trade a WHOLE lot of Romita for the Hulk 181 cover ;)   5-10 covers would be a starting point :insane:

Edited by Bronty

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15 minutes ago, Bronty said:

You're asking the wrong guy.    In that position, I'd be willing to trade a WHOLE lot of Romita for the Hulk 181 cover ;)   5-10 covers would be a starting point :insane:

OA according to Bronty: :insane: 

John Romita Sr. :boo:

Herb Trimpe :banana:

Boris Vallejo (worship) 

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30 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

OA according to Bronty: :insane: 

John Romita Sr. :boo:

Herb Trimpe :banana:

Boris Vallejo (worship) 

yuk yuk.   You forgot Ron Wilson and Kent Burles.

Point is, there's a whole lot of not particularly special covers that are quite valuable.   A hulk 181 cover to me should be a whole other stratosphere.   And given that you're saying 2m+ is possible, we aren't so far apart on that.     Ergo, Trimpe rules!  :banana:

Frankly all three of those artists are ones I only collect if I particularly like the subject matter.    All three have done pieces well worth owning, and many pieces that I wouldn't care to own largely based on what the subject matter was.     To state the obvious, at the end of the day any discussion about 181 is purely about subject matter.    And you can't beat 181 for subject matter across the last 50 years or so.     Is there even a more valuable piece that we know for sure exists?   One could make the argument that it might be the most valuable piece of american comic oa extant.    

For the record, I'd peg it at the very low 2's.   2.1, 2.2, that sort of thing.    +/- 500k

Edited by Bronty

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44 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Herge and Uderzo and Crumb and Frazetta price points

 

1 hour ago, Bronty said:

Mile High Action 1 and the AF15 story are the comparables. 

I think the AF 15 story is the only thing that might apply here. Frazetta, Hulk 181, and the rest are not the cultural milestones that first Superman or Spider-man are. Action 1 cover OA is not comic art, it is a major piece of Americana. Hence my "Rockwell money" comment earlier. If there were no such thing as a Lucas Museum in the mix, I'd say a larger museum would be well-advised to acquire it. (A side question... Does anyone know if the Smithsonian only takes donations or do they make purchases?)

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2 hours ago, delekkerste said:

traditional representative art, illustration art, comic art, movie-related art, children's book-related art, digital art,

Which of these will be the main draw, in your opinion?

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If someone is willing to pay $3.5 Million for one of the two 9.0 Action #1 comic copies, I’d think the OA for the cover would fetch at least that. It’s a cultural artifact that goes beyond comic collecting, and OA collecting. 

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25 minutes ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

If someone is willing to pay $3.5 Million for one of the two 9.0 Action #1 comic copies, I’d think the OA for the cover would fetch at least that. It’s a cultural artifact that goes beyond comic collecting, and OA collecting. 

I don't think anyone doubts 3.5m, the question is, what's the number?  5?  10?   15?   20?

I think the MH action 1 is 5-10m in today's market.     I guess I think the OA to the cover would be roughly equivalent to the MH copy, perhaps slightly above but not much.    So perhaps the talk of 15-20 is unjustified.   

At the end of the day this is all mental masturbation as it likely doesn't exist.

The Hulk 181 cover is a better mental exercise (ahem) to me, as it does exist and would be valued in a range that makes guessing a little easier.

Edited by Bronty

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53 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Frankly all three of those artists are ones I only collect if I particularly like the subject matter.    All three have done pieces well worth owning, and many pieces that I wouldn't care to own largely based on what the subject matter was.     To state the obvious, at the end of the day any discussion about 181 is purely about subject matter.    And you can't beat 181 for subject matter across the last 50 years or so.     Is there even a more valuable piece that we know for sure exists?   One could make the argument that it might be the most valuable piece of american comic oa extant.    

For the record, I'd peg it at the very low 2's.   2.1, 2.2, that sort of thing.    +/- 500k

I think Hulk #181 is super cool, but, I'd find it a little sad if that was the pinnacle of American comic book OA valuation-wise, in much the same way people were bemoaning the ASM #328 cover being the recordholder (and then co-recordholder) for American OA at public auction.  That said, I'm struggling to think of what might be worth more that we know to still exist. I mean, certainly there are certainly Marvel Silver Age complete stories that are worth more.  And there are Frazetta paintings worth more (and Lichtenstein paintings too lol), though, those aren't really OA.  

But, a single OA cover/splash/page/strip that we know for sure is still around?  I dunno - how about the best page from AF #15 (not available to buy anymore, of course)?  Has WSF #29 appreciated to Hulk #181 levels yet (doubt it)?  Does the GA Cap #1 cover exist (as was mooted some years ago), and, if so, would it fetch more?  Would the best page from ASM #1 complete story (yes, known to exist) do it?  How about FF #1 (not 100% on this one, but I believe this one is said to still be around as well)?  Which Ditko ASM covers are known to have survived (I know there are at least 3, and probably more)?  Would GSXM 1 outpace Hulk 181 or would the freshness of the latter blow the former out of the water?  How about the first Peanuts Sunday?  Whoops, The Cabal just called and wants me to ix-nay on the alking-tay about these ieces-pay... :juggle: 

Egad, could it be that Hulk #181 by Herb Trimpe is the most valuable single piece of American OA out there?? :facepalm: 

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2 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Egad, could it be that Hulk #181 by Herb Trimpe is the most valuable single piece of American OA out there?? :facepalm: 

Too much jumping around. Are we parsing out comic book story art from strip art? Yes or no? Peanuts #1 may or may not be part of the Hulk 181 conversation then. Anyway, this all same old same old for the same unanswered question: what's worth more in this hobby: the fine art of sequential art or the context? Foster Prince Valiant, Raymond Flash Gordon, or Peanuts #1, or Trimpe Hulk, McSpidey anything, etc etc? Until that question has a better answer you will not get the answer to "single most valuable blah blah".

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45 minutes ago, BCarter27 said:

 

I think the AF 15 story is the only thing that might apply here. Frazetta, Hulk 181, and the rest are not the cultural milestones that first Superman or Spider-man are. Action 1 cover OA is not comic art, it is a major piece of Americana. Hence my "Rockwell money" comment earlier. If there were no such thing as a Lucas Museum in the mix, I'd say a larger museum would be well-advised to acquire it. (A side question... Does anyone know if the Smithsonian only takes donations or do they make purchases?)

They make purchases, but, they aren't spending Rockwell money on comic book art using mostly government (re: taxpayer-funded) funds.

I'm sure the Met would gladly take the Action #1 cover as a donation, but, dropping Rockwell money on it when there are no comps or precedents to support it...good luck getting that through any of their acquisitions committees.  

43 minutes ago, BCarter27 said:

Which of these will be the main draw, in your opinion?

People will hear "Lucas" in the name and want to check out the Star Wars and other movie-related art and artifacts is my guess.  

37 minutes ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

If someone is willing to pay $3.5 Million for one of the two 9.0 Action #1 comic copies, I’d think the OA for the cover would fetch at least that. It’s a cultural artifact that goes beyond comic collecting, and OA collecting. 

Comic people always think that big books/OA pieces transcend the hobby; I don't think that is actually the case most of the time. 

15 minutes ago, Bronty said:

I think the MH action 1 is 5-10m in today's market.     I guess I think the OA to the cover would be roughly equivalent to the MH copy, perhaps slightly above but not much.    So perhaps the talk of 15-20 is unjustified.   

Yes, we had this discussion a few years ago on the Boards in the GA Comics section IIRC - which would fetch more, the MH Action #1 or the Action #1 cover OA (if the latter existed).  IIRC, it was a close vote; I think the OA cover might have narrowly won the poll.  I voted for the MH Action #1 - it's the best copy of the most important comic book ever.  Very easy to understand - it's the pinnacle of the comic book collecting hobby, which dwarfs the OA hobby in numbers and size.  Even to outsiders, it's a much easier sell - it's best of the best of something they can understand.  In comic OA, I think there is a lot more variability in what people value.  I bet a lot of people in the hobby don't even know who drew the Action #1!  I doubt all the legions of die-hard Kirbyites are going to think the Action #1 is the pinnacle of the OA hobby, not by a longshot.  Think all the Jim Lee and Greg Capullo fans think the Action #1 is the ne plus ultra of the OA hobby?  Doubt it.  

That said, it only takes two to tango, so I agree that, in the end, the cover and the MH copy both probably come out around the same value.  Personally, even though I'm an OA guy, I'd take the MH copy any day of the week and twice on Sunday over the cover OA.  It's inarguably the best of the best of the best in the comic book hobby (which, again, is like orders of magnitude larger and more popular than OA).  The cover art?  Not my bag, baby.  

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Just comic book OA.   Just single pages.   Not full stories.   

And yes Gene, the top piece known IS the Hulk 181 cover.     Embrace it.    :banana:

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

  Personally, even though I'm an OA guy, I'd take the MH copy any day of the week and twice on Sunday over the cover OA.  It's inarguably the best of the best of the best in the comic book hobby (which, again, is like orders of magnitude larger and more popular than OA).  The cover art?  Not my bag, baby.  

I would have a hard time making the choice myself, and I usually prefer oa too

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I'd run over the Mile High Action 1 in this to get to the OA-

gallery-1495643399-bonhamsferrari.jpeg?r

 

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What is the best piece of Kirby art known to exist? Suspected to exist?

 

... and I am happy to hear that a Hulk piece of art is at the top of the heap in this discussion!

Edited by JadeGiant

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1 hour ago, JadeGiant said:

What is the best piece of Kirby art known to exist? Suspected to exist?

 

... and I am happy to hear that a Hulk piece of art is at the top of the heap in this discussion!

even though the only reason the Hulk piece is in discussion was because Wolverine showed up in it?  Wolverine could have shown up in Mr. Nobody #181 and it might have the same effect! :)

Malvin

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14 hours ago, delekkerste said:

I think Hulk #181 is super cool, but, I'd find it a little sad if that was the pinnacle of American comic book OA valuation-wise, in much the same way people were bemoaning the ASM #328 cover being the recordholder (and then co-recordholder) for American OA at public auction.  That said, I'm struggling to think of what might be worth more that we know to still exist. I mean, certainly there are certainly Marvel Silver Age complete stories that are worth more.  And there are Frazetta paintings worth more (and Lichtenstein paintings too lol), though, those aren't really OA.  

But, a single OA cover/splash/page/strip that we know for sure is still around?  I dunno - how about the best page from AF #15 (not available to buy anymore, of course)?  Has WSF #29 appreciated to Hulk #181 levels yet (doubt it)?  Does the GA Cap #1 cover exist (as was mooted some years ago), and, if so, would it fetch more?  Would the best page from ASM #1 complete story (yes, known to exist) do it?  How about FF #1 (not 100% on this one, but I believe this one is said to still be around as well)?  Which Ditko ASM covers are known to have survived (I know there are at least 3, and probably more)?  Would GSXM 1 outpace Hulk 181 or would the freshness of the latter blow the former out of the water?  How about the first Peanuts Sunday?  Whoops, The Cabal just called and wants me to ix-nay on the alking-tay about these ieces-pay... :juggle: 

Egad, could it be that Hulk #181 by Herb Trimpe is the most valuable single piece of American OA out there?? :facepalm: 

I think most of those key Marvel Silver Age covers still exist somewhere. If so, Cover to AF #15 would be it. 

I’ve heard the Cap #1 Cover rumor too. If so, that might be it. (Who has it? Joe Simon’s family?) But I’m fairly confident that many of the Marvel Silver age covers still exists. 

We know the complete interior art from #AF 15 & TTA 27 exists. We know at least some from JOM 83 and TOS 39 exists. 

FF #1? Hulk #1? I don’t know. 

If the interior art exists, that’s strong evidence the covers do too. Someone thought they were important enough to preserve. The question is, where are the covers, which is the subject of a whole ‘nother thread.

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