Yep, we are in the 1990's collectibles pre-crash 2 2

[musicmeta]

The comics I want to keep, I'm keeping and I don't care what the market does.  Unless you're a dealer doing this full time for your living, you shouldn't "depend" on your comic books for additional income..It's great that we can all do this right now  to help feed our collecting interests but WHEN the market turns south, you should still be ok if your comics substantially drop in value.   That being said, I do hope WHEN the comic markets takes that down turn, I hope the comic book dealers have a contingency plan. 

[Mercury Man]

On 4/25/2018 at 12:59 PM, spreads said:

Sure that 60k item could definitely crash tomorrow, but unless there is a sudden dramatic macro-socioeconomic event it's not likely a whole collectible asset class (like comics) will crash.

It's the gimmick play that ruins it.  Variants- gimmick.  1 of 1 super rare rookie- gimmick.   Things we collect, do well without the gimmicks.  When people start placing extreme values on something that hasn't even been released or in the public's hands yet, that is not good for the hobby (sports cards in this case).  Sure this baseball card will not affect the comic book side.   But you are seeing similar things again, trying to pry peoples money away under the guise of - "if it's rare, it must be worth it" in our hobby."   This New Zealand Mint recent release is very reminiscent of the crapola from the 1990's.  GEM MINT 10 Graded by CGC if you like.

[spreads]

10 hours ago, Mercury Man said:

It's the gimmick play that ruins it.  Variants- gimmick.  1 of 1 super rare rookie- gimmick.   Things we collect, do well without the gimmicks.  When people start placing extreme values on something that hasn't even been released or in the public's hands yet, that is not good for the hobby (sports cards in this case).  Sure this baseball card will not affect the comic book side.   But you are seeing similar things again, trying to pry peoples money away under the guise of - "if it's rare, it must be worth it" in our hobby."   This New Zealand Mint recent release is very reminiscent of the crapola from the 1990's.  GEM MINT 10 Graded by CGC if you like.

I get that, but what percentage do these 'gimmicks' represent of the total collectible comic market?   I'm willing to wager it's < .001%.   Revat and Valiantman both commented on the differences between the 90s and now, did you read their posts?

The definition of a crash is a systematic macro event that has a significant affect on every participant in that industry - e.g. the banking crisis of 2008.  I was actively trading in the equity markets; having both long and short positions in many of those stocks.  Lehman brothers, Merrill, JPM, etc. etc.   No one was spared, but the banks that were lesser affected - Canadian banks in particular - ended up stronger after the dust settled.  

Edited April 27, 2018 by spreads

[AGGIEZ]

Not even close to the 90's...talk to me when POGS make a comeback.

[deadleg]

[ComicConnoisseur]

2 hours ago, spreads said:

I get that, but what percentage do these 'gimmicks' represent of the total collectible comic market?   I'm willing to wager it's < .001%.   Revat and Valiantman both commented on the differences between the 90s and now, did you read their posts?

The definition of a crash is a systematic macro event that has a significant affect on every participant in that industry - e.g. the banking crisis of 2008.  I was actively trading in the equity markets; having both long and short positions in many of those stocks.  Lehman brothers, Merrill, JPM, etc. etc.   No one was spared, but the banks that were lesser affected - Canadian banks in particular - ended up stronger after the dust settled.  

Good points.

Also I will add both the stock market and real estate markets are as good or if not better than ever.

Both the comic book and sports cards markets can adapt to any variant/refractor bubble because there are just way too many different niches now,and it is not a one glove fits all mentality.

So if this Otani rookie card or any of the Amazing Spider-Man modern variants become worthless over night it will not destroy the markets because the markets are much more than the .001% niche variant/refractor market.

Edited April 27, 2018 by ComicConnoisseur

[1Cool]

12 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Good points.

Also I will add both the stock market and real estate markets are as good or if not better than ever.

Both the comic book and sports cards markets can adapt to any variant/refractor bubble because there are just way too many different niches now,and it is not a one glove fits all mentality.

So if this Otani rookie card or any of the Amazing Spider-Man modern variants become worthless over night it will not destroy the markets because the markets are much more than the .001% niche variant/refractor market.

This comment did make me think the current market is more similar to the 90s then I original thought.  The variant market is pushing stores to buy 100 copies to get to the 1:100 variant but they only need 55 copies to fill orders.  The 1:100 copy may make it worthwhile but it leaves 45 copies of the book sitting in a back room ready to be blown out at $1 or 2x$1 in a future sale.  This basically means most new books will have a really tough time being worth anything since supply exceeds demand.  The 55 who bought the book for $3.99 go to sell in the future and find out their books are worth $0.50 and they stop buying new books so now there is only 50 people buying and 50 sitting in the back room.  Eventually there is a tipping point where the variants are not worth the effort but until then it's just a massive amount of books being published sitting in back room (very similar to the 90s).

[spreads]

25 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Also I will add both the stock market and real estate markets are as good or if not better than ever.

I made these comments in my first post, it's not just that these asset classes are at the highest valuations, they provide additional cushion to related asset classes/discretionary spending (like comics) because they offer collateralized-borrowing. 

Again, to say the this is the 90s is grossly ignoring the changes in consumer credit/spending, interest rates, etc. that has a major influence on the economy. 

[spreads]

10 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

This comment did make me think the current market is more similar to the 90s then I original thought.  The variant market is pushing stores to buy 100 copies to get to the 1:100 variant but they only need 55 copies to fill orders.  The 1:100 copy may make it worthwhile but it leaves 45 copies of the book sitting in a back room ready to be blown out at $1 or 2x$1 in a future sale.  This basically means most new books will have a really tough time being worth anything since supply exceeds demand.  The 55 who bought the book for $3.99 go to sell in the future and find out their books are worth $0.50 and they stop buying new books so now there is only 50 people buying and 50 sitting in the back room.  Eventually there is a tipping point where the variants are not worth the effort but until then it's just a massive amount of books being published sitting in back room (very similar to the 90s).

So I am not an expert on this at all, but business models of local comic stores have also changed dramatically (offering different products and service beyond just floppies).  There are threads that you can find online where LCS owners actually break-down the 'weedy details' of ordering variants (cost, break-even, gross and net margins, etc. etc). 

As an added anecdote, a few years back I was chatting with the long-established owner of my LCS about ordering variants (for myself) and he even pointed-out the risk to the consumer using the 90s as an example.  So I think the risk of established LCS going under over variants is pretty low (it would be one of many factors in their demise). 

The 90s was really an example of 'putting all your eggs in one basket'....for all the shops that went out of business I bet there was very little risk analysis done when they were putting these big orders in to their distributors - I was just a kid then seeing copies of over-ordered books on the shelf - so I would like others to chime in with greater specifics. 

[ComicConnoisseur]

Also it should be noted in the early1990s the LCS was basically the big way with comic books, now a little something called the internet has changed things drastically for the comic book market to make it a different model.

lol.

 

[revat]

1 hour ago, 1Cool said:

This comment did make me think the current market is more similar to the 90s then I original thought.  The variant market is pushing stores to buy 100 copies to get to the 1:100 variant but they only need 55 copies to fill orders.  The 1:100 copy may make it worthwhile but it leaves 45 copies of the book sitting in a back room ready to be blown out at $1 or 2x$1 in a future sale.  This basically means most new books will have a really tough time being worth anything since supply exceeds demand.  The 55 who bought the book for $3.99 go to sell in the future and find out their books are worth $0.50 and they stop buying new books so now there is only 50 people buying and 50 sitting in the back room.  Eventually there is a tipping point where the variants are not worth the effort but until then it's just a massive amount of books being published sitting in back room (very similar to the 90s).

Yes, stores buy a ton to fill the rare limited variant demand.  BUT any fall would be gradual.  If a dealer bought $1000 worth of comics for a given month to get two comics they could sell for $500 each, but suddenly they couldn't get $500 per variant, they could still sell to some insufficiently_thoughtful_person online for $400 nearly immediately, and they could still blowout the backstock (even online) to at least break even.  But in the 90's, the market was limited to the immediate area, so if you had no one to buy your $500 variant, you might just be stuck with it, and also nowhere to sell your million common floppies. 

But now you can advertise easily and cheaply online (or social media) to sell online or to have blowout sales in your store, or to blowout your extra copies for nickels (not pennies) on the dollar (to at least get some money back).  And then having broken even this month (at worst), you could adjust your model on the fly with some internet research and adjust your ordering fairly easily compared to the old days, when you would have much less info about market trends, and you might not be able to adjust until its too late.  So if you're a moderately savvy LCS owner now you should be able to adjust reasonably quickly and smartly, and if not then you would probably fail anyways.  Then for a few months people might order less, people print less, but completionists still want to complete, barring larger macroeconomic issues, I would think.

[Foley]

Random off topic question:

Does Wayne Gretzky still own that T-206 Honus Wagner? The one that's high grade but almost certainly trimmed?

[valiantman]

23 minutes ago, Foley said:

Random off topic question:

Does Wayne Gretzky still own that T-206 Honus Wagner? The one that's high grade but almost certainly trimmed?

Arizona Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick has the Gretzky T-206 Wagner.  It was definitely trimmed, Bill Mastro admitted it.

http://beta.nydailynews.com/sports/i-team/mastro-admits-cutting-honus-card-article-1.1482098

Fun fact: I was able to see the card in person when it "toured the U.S." courtesy of Wal-Mart.  Biggest moment in my teenage sports card collecting years... just seeing it. 

Edited April 27, 2018 by valiantman

[Foley]

30 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Arizona Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick has the Gretzky T-206 Wagner.  It was definitely trimmed, Bill Mastro admitted it.

http://beta.nydailynews.com/sports/i-team/mastro-admits-cutting-honus-card-article-1.1482098

Fun fact: I was able to see the card in person when it "toured the U.S." courtesy of Wal-Mart.  Biggest moment in my teenage sports card collecting years... just seeing it. 

Wow, what a scumbag. Undisclosed trimming, shill bidding etc.

Very cool you got to see it, I'm jealous. It's graded and slabbed, correct? And the trimming wasn't caught by the grading service?

[the blob]

On ‎4‎/‎24‎/‎2018 at 10:15 AM, Mr.Mcknowitall said:

It does and it is, and is passive in nature, as to when to receive the best economical return, thanks to the Internet and ESPN.

 

On ‎4‎/‎24‎/‎2018 at 8:24 AM, DocHoppus182 said:

This.  I have a friend that's owned a comic/sports card shop for 25 years.  In talking with him over the years and based on what I've seen, the sports card market is a bit smaller than it used to be in the 80s/90s but it's bigger than it has ever been within the market itself (if that makes sense).

Yeah, I don't understand what you're saying?  Is it because they have $25 packs they didn't have in the 90s, so the dollar volume is higher, though fewer packs/cards are sold? And the focus is on a few hot rare cards that can go for a ton (rather than a bunch of $10 cards like back in the 90s), and commons, even rookie commons, are completely worthless? I see this at my shop sometimes. A guy goes through a box of some expensive packs where he spent $200-$300 on the box, keeps all the special cards, which he says he will be selling, and just gives the commons back to the shop, which sticks them into some $1 for 50 card grab bag or 5-10 cent a card box.

[the blob]

3 hours ago, spreads said:

So I am not an expert on this at all, but business models of local comic stores have also changed dramatically (offering different products and service beyond just floppies).  There are threads that you can find online where LCS owners actually break-down the 'weedy details' of ordering variants (cost, break-even, gross and net margins, etc. etc). 

As an added anecdote, a few years back I was chatting with the long-established owner of my LCS about ordering variants (for myself) and he even pointed-out the risk to the consumer using the 90s as an example.  So I think the risk of established LCS going under over variants is pretty low (it would be one of many factors in their demise). 

The 90s was really an example of 'putting all your eggs in one basket'....for all the shops that went out of business I bet there was very little risk analysis done when they were putting these big orders in to their distributors - I was just a kid then seeing copies of over-ordered books on the shelf - so I would like others to chime in with greater specifics. 

With print runs on all but a few books where they are, there doesn't seem to be much room for 90s style gluts. But yes, I do see my LCS toss multiples of books in the cheap-o box, probably because they ordered extras to get a variant. The supply seems to get absorbed. The new books eventually get bought and the drek box returns to being mostly unsellable 90s overstock books until infused with some new stuff.

[spreads]

1 hour ago, the blob said:

With print runs on all but a few books where they are, there doesn't seem to be much room for 90s style gluts. But yes, I do see my LCS toss multiples of books in the cheap-o box, probably because they ordered extras to get a variant. The supply seems to get absorbed. The new books eventually get bought and the drek box returns to being mostly unsellable 90s overstock books until infused with some new stuff.

Even if the supply doesn't get absorbed, I think most of these shops have zero cost into a lot of these book because of the variants. 

I'm still amazed there are as many card dealers as comic guys in my town; I don't know if any are collectors or if they're all speculators.

Edited April 27, 2018 by spreads

[badback83]

4 hours ago, the blob said:

 

Yeah, I don't understand what you're saying?  Is it because they have $25 packs they didn't have in the 90s, so the dollar volume is higher, though fewer packs/cards are sold? And the focus is on a few hot rare cards that can go for a ton (rather than a bunch of $10 cards like back in the 90s), and commons, even rookie commons, are completely worthless? I see this at my shop sometimes. A guy goes through a box of some expensive packs where he spent $200-$300 on the box, keeps all the special cards, which he says he will be selling, and just gives the commons back to the shop, which sticks them into some $1 for 50 card grab bag or 5-10 cent a card box.

I guess I didn’t describe the point I was trying to make very well.  My bad.  What I meant was that it’s my friend’s experience that there is a lot less people in the market now versus the 90s but the hobby is still very big within the group that does still collect and/or deal.  

Im not sure what Mr.McKnowitall meant.

[kidcolt]

The card hobby have moved to high end products. It isn’t a kid hobby anymore and the cards aren’t like the old stuff. Packs with four cards in it sell for $600, yes you can still get $5-10 packs but the $600 ones sell out. Cards of guys like Lebron, Sidney Crosby and whoever is the new hot baseball player can easily sell for $15,000 - $60,000. Old vintage cards that are professionally graded and in high grade are selling for millions. Look up the PSA 10 Wayne Gretzky rookie and now this week a Mickey Mantle rookie. Also go on eBay and look up a Lebron exquisite rookie card and Sidney Crosby  and Mcdavid cup rookies. The hobby also have gone to epscks where you can buy packs of your favorite sets and open them online. You can redeem the cards you want. The card hobby is different but still healthy. The 

Edited April 28, 2018 by kidcolt

[ADAMANTIUM]

And to think I bought a 5.0 Nolan Ryan rookie, waited 3 years, and was happy to sell it for the price that I bought it from Becket to a local shop; BVG 5.0 excellent for $300, this was a couple years ago though.