What is happening to WD #1 value?!?! 3 3

[Kevin...]

I, along with many collectors, have considered WD 1 one of the most solid rock solid moderns out there for several years...but over the last year or so have just seen some disturbing trends, NM copies are down nearly 20%. IMO the show has just lost it's edge, is it tied to the show that closely? Time to liquidate or buy now?

Thoughts...

Edited May 13, 2018 by Kevin...

[FineCollector]

5 minutes ago, Kevin... said:

I, along with many collectors, have considered WD 1 one of the most solid rock solid moderns out there for several years...

Somewhere in there is your answer, I'm just not sure if you'll see it.

[Kevin...]

1 minute ago, FineCollector said:

Somewhere in there is your answer, I'm just not sure if you'll see it.

I don't see it actually. Hence the thread. Pls enlighten me!

I would agree that Moderns are more volatile than older books, but relative to other high price moderns I think most collectors would agree that WD1 has traditionally been pretty solid. Are you saying this is wrong?

[ygogolak]

It will probably be a blue chip forever. How big of a window are you looking at for market fluctuation?

[Kevin...]

Just now, ygogolak said:

It will probably be a blue chip forever. How big of a window are you looking at for market fluctuation?

Roughly 18 months. Based on some rough GPA analysis looks like it's been trending downward since late '16. Something that may be bigger than just a few random sales.

I hope it will be....hell, there's even Walking Dead theme park rides now!

[jason4]

It’s not just number one I’ve lost a lot on many key issues the last year. 

I see it continuing to rot (pun) in price and would sell now but if you hold you need to probably hold for at least 5 years to not lose money and hope it has a revival. Just my guess. 

[fastballspecial]

Walking Dead is suffering from fatigue and its fan base is frustrated with the new show. Its not a key I would be buying currently or
anytime in the future unless you want it for your personal collection. If that's the case then now wouldn't be a bad time to pick it up
while prices are now lower.

[Kevin...]

1 minute ago, fastballspecial said:

Walking Dead is suffering from fatigue and its fan base is frustrated with the new show. Its not a key I would be buying currently or
anytime in the future unless you want it for your personal collection. If that's the case then now wouldn't be a bad time to pick it up
while prices are now lower.

Well said brother, I think u nailed it. 

[500Club]

There are historical precedents for what you are seeing.

After Marvel overused the Punisher in the 90s, ASM 129 was soft for several years.  Often, these serve as good entry points.

[miraclemet]

17 minutes ago, 500Club said:

There are historical precedents for what you are seeing.

After Marvel overused the Punisher in the 90s, ASM 129 was soft for several years.  Often, these serve as good entry points.

The difference possibly being that once the show is done, is there a reasonable revival? Punisher had his comeback, and then haste bump from the Netflix show. 

It's only a good entry point if there's a future revival...but some things just stay dead (see what I did There?)

Say the show dies out over the next 3-4 years.... What's the IP to revive? Zombies aren't exclusive to Wd, and if the revival is new stories, maybe not from Kirkman then does it keep the ties to the comic (meaning does it make people want to go buy the comic and help keep the #1 desirable?)

[WolverineX]

2 hours ago, fastballspecial said:

Walking Dead is suffering from fatigue and its fan base is frustrated with the new show. Its not a key I would be buying currently or
anytime in the future unless you want it for your personal collection. If that's the case then now wouldn't be a bad time to pick it up
while prices are now lower.

+1 Lots of fatigue from the show... lots of people are not watching it anymore

[WolverineX]

8 minutes ago, miraclemet said:

The difference possibly being that once the show is done, is there a reasonable revival? Punisher had his comeback, and then haste bump from the Netflix show. 

It's only a good entry point if there's a future revival...but some things just stay dead (see what I did There?)

Say the show dies out over the next 3-4 years.... What's the IP to revive? Zombies aren't exclusive to Wd, and if the revival is new stories, maybe not from Kirkman then does it keep the ties to the comic (meaning does it make people want to go buy the comic and help keep the #1 desirable?)

Exactly, this isn't TMNT

[miraclemet]

9 minutes ago, Wolverinex said:

Exactly, this isn't TMNT

Agreed from an IP perspective.

Only way I could see a semi- revival was if someone bought it as a horror movie franchise, but again, the stories would be totally different cause movies arent episodic like the book and the TV show.

[divad]

Zed's dead baby . . . Zed's dead. 

 

[lightninglad]

I see Walking Dead as being akin to Star Trek. It'll die out with the masses, still have a cult following, and have a revival at some point.  But it may be 30 years down the road.

The quality of the core show has definitely hurt product all around.

[Grib]

25 minutes ago, lightninglad said:

I see Walking Dead as being akin to Star Trek. It'll die out with the masses, still have a cult following, and have a revival at some point.  But it may be 30 years down the road.

The quality of the core show has definitely hurt product all around.

So if I was in my 30's it would be wise to buy and hold on for 20-25 years than sell when it gets revived. When I was young I thought about buying Spider-Man #1 for $300.00 but I figured it was way to much. Stupid me . If you have money and time, play.

[Grendel72]

Even if WD #1 9.8 does peter out to say $800 , its still quite remarkable for a non super hero book. I honestly never imagined it would reach the prices it did. Certainly the best has come and gone. I still follow the show and buy the omnibus when it comes out but not sure how long I will continue. 

[1Cool]

Walking Dead comics are due for a large price drop across the board.  Those arguing the books would maintain their prices without a hit show are fooling themselves.  I'm not saying Waling Dead 1 will be a $1 book but I do think the prices may drop in half for pretty much every book if the show doesn't reinvent itself.  All things come to an end.

[F For Fake]

IF WD 1 drops to half price, I'll pick one up, for sure. The show may be sputtering out, and I'm sure we've long since seen the peak of the show's popularity, but that book is still ridiculously low-printed compared to current, and I'd say future, demand. Only, what, 7000 of them to go around? Even if the show is canceled, and fandom continues to taper off, that whole property was an honest to goodness cultural phenomenon. Things that are that popular don't just disappear forever. There will always be demand for the book, as the #1 key of the modern age. It may drop quite a bit, but it will never go away. WD 1 isn't a flash in the pan like Sixth Gun or whatever. That book is legit.

[AnthonyTheAbyss]

Last night a CGC 9.8 auction copy sold for $2,200 (one bid).  I don't know how legit that was because of the single bid...but it's the latest data point.