Crazy Run up on price than crash and burn. And I mean BURN! 3 3

[Aweandlorder]

It's ok everyone is having fun. It's Friday everyone's having fun. I'm just sick this whole week w a cold and 101 temp so I can't join the fun 

[LordRahl]

4 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

Forgot if this was mentioned pages back, but Green Lantern 76 in CGC 9.6.

From what I believe is a record-high (for a 9.6 Bronze book) GPA price of $30,500 in June 2009 to the last listed sale price of $5,856 in Aug. 2017.

Yeah -- it was a "scarce-in-high-grade no-9.8s-then-on-the-census" deal but it's still more than an 80% loss on a high-grade Bronze key in less than 10 years.

That GL sale doesn't really belong in this discussion. There are lots of examples (both bronze and silver) of single highest graded, first to market copies that sell for huge premiums over what subsequent copies sell for when they show up in the same grade. It's the "I have to have the best and there's only 1 copy RIGHT NOW" phenomenon. I think the people paying those premiums realize that even on hard to find in grade books, they are losing money because others will be graded in that grade in the future. I just think those people (like Brulato) don't care, want it now and are willing to pay the premium to not wait until the second or third copy show up.

[RockMyAmadeus]

5 hours ago, James J Johnson said:

I'll start a thread about the relative values of the three books over the past 35 years using Overstreet and GP data. None of it will be my opinion or my data. When you show up to troll me, simply refute 35 years of Overstreet and 15 years of GP data. I'm sure you will. You're a troll. Nothing more. And not a very good one. I've got things to do. You carry on, and carry on, and carry on, Miss.  I must say, in your own way, you are amusing. But not "amusing" as intended, I suspect!  

Newbs be funny. Look at my join date, newb. Look at my post count. Do you think I have 13+ years and 50k posts just by trolling newbs...? No one is "trolling" you, though, I suspect you think this song is about you too. 

Here's the best advice anyone could ever give you about getting along here: type less, read more. Then you won't change your story mid-stream and focus on irrelevant minutiae because you got caught by Cal. 

Now shhh....I'm reading my Strawberry Shortcake....

 

 

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

5 hours ago, James J Johnson said:

Well, you're not bored now! I still can't understand how a thread on comics that soared, then crashed and burned has anything to do with IMSM 1 Sub 1 IM 1, and RockMyAmadeus' incessant, trolling assertions that he's so much smarter than I am, assertions that I've yet to see proven despite his non-empirical insistence on the matter.

Someone's got a crush.... 

[RockMyAmadeus]

4 hours ago, spreads said:

4 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

Forgot if this was mentioned pages back, but Green Lantern 76 in CGC 9.6.

From what I believe is a record-high (for a 9.6 Bronze book) GPA price of $30,500 in June 2009 to the last listed sale price of $5,856 in Aug. 2017.

Yeah -- it was a "scarce-in-high-grade no-9.8s-then-on-the-census" deal but it's still more than an 80% loss on a high-grade Bronze key in less than 10 years.

You know what's even more starting and dramatically overlooked in those time periods - June 2009 was just a few months when the equity markets and the credit markets were in TOTAL DISTRESS.  I mean, to take 30K and put it in a comic book, instead of any STOCK (or real-estate in most markets) is even more starting.  It would be considerably different if someone bought a book in 2006 and 2007 and sold in 2009, but to buy right after the global meltdown and then sell for a huge loss after a 10 year period - where EVERY ASSET CLASS had a huge run-up - is even more ridiculous.

But that number wasn't real. Yes, $30k exchanged hands, sure, but that book was never really that valuable, ever.

The reason it sold for that much is because of the massive buildup, on this board and elsewhere, of this book being the only, or one of the only, bronze age keys to not have a 9.8 on the census, and the repeated suggestions, and outright claims, that there never would be. And when that book sold, there was only a single 9.6 on the census....that one....and had been the only 9.6 for around 5 years already.

Just like all the rest of the "not at all rare, but not (yet) represented on the census" books of 2005-2010, the price it sold for was entirely artificial.

If the buyer and other bidders had only waited, they would have paid a lot less.

BUT....I will grant you that the price of that sale did, in turn, inspire people to turn their books in to cash out, and now there are 2 9.8s and 19 9.6s....a number that would probably be a little smaller had that $30k sale not taken place. But the next sale, for 25% less, of NEW 9.6 showed how artificial that $30k number really was.

The exact same thing happened in coins (though it happened a lot faster), and, I suspect, other graded collectible markets.

[Gatsby77]

57 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

But that number wasn't real. Yes, $30k exchanged hands, sure, but that book was never really that valuable, ever.

The reason it sold for that much is because of the massive buildup, on this board and elsewhere, of this book being the only, or one of the only, bronze age keys to not have a 9.8 on the census, and the repeated suggestions, and outright claims, that there never would be. And when that book sold, there was only a single 9.6 on the census....that one....and had been the only 9.6 for around 5 years already.

Just like all the rest of the "not at all rare, but not (yet) represented on the census" books of 2005-2010, the price it sold for was entirely artificial.

If the buyer and other bidders had only waited, they would have paid a lot less.

BUT....I will grant you that the price of that sale did, in turn, inspire people to turn their books in to cash out, and now there are 2 9.8s and 19 9.6s....a number that would probably be a little smaller had that $30k sale not taken place. But the next sale, for 25% less, of NEW 9.6 showed how artificial that $30k number really was.

The exact same thing happened in coins (though it happened a lot faster), and, I suspect, other graded collectible markets.

Okay -- but it wasn't a massive decline after that first sale. The GPA average of the first three sales of the book in 9.6 -- involving at least two different copies --  was $26,000.

Three sales in 9.6 at an average of $26,000 is a fairly short time span is a more reliable indicator of value than sole-first-to-market, no?

Still a massive decline for a blue chip key in the years since, given that the book has recently sold for less than $6,000.

 

Also, I've made that exact same "wait and see argument" for Copper books ranging from GI Joe 21 to Batman 428 to Harbinger 1 to Wolverine 35.

In each of those cases, I think we'll see a steady continued census growth of 9.8 copies -- as in fact we have already for all but Wolverine 35.

 

[James J Johnson]

1 hour ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Newbs be funny. Look at my join date, newb. Look at my post count. Do you think I have 13+ years and 50k posts just by trolling newbs...? No one is "trolling" you, though, I suspect you think this song is about you too. 

Here's the best advice anyone could ever give you about getting along here: type less, read more. Then you won't change your story mid-stream and focus on irrelevant minutiae because you got caught by Cal. 

Now shhh....I'm reading my Strawberry Shortcake....

 

 

 

 

You're definitely barking up the wrong tree, miss, I'm just not interested, and I don't know what I could have stated to lead you to believe that I am. You remind me of a girl in my class when I was back in public school. Everybody would throw themselves all over her, she was "Miss Popularity", and although I wasn't the best looking, the smartest, the richest, or the funniest dude, for some reason, only God knows why, she singled me out to be the focus of her attention. And the more I ignored her and didn't return her advances, the worse her obsession got, a fatal attraction type, much like you, dear. I'd try to avoid her and she'd pop out of bushes. It was weird and quite uncomfortable and embarrassing to tell the truth. But I was more embarrassed for her than I was for me, much like this business here.

I have no idea what your posts with the dog pictures and the little boy on Spider-man's lap were meant to invoke, but like that girl in school, you and your dogs are barking up the wrong tree. Ironically, if you're a male, and I'm still not sure as to your gender, you're way off base, I'm not diverse. And as I suspect, if you're female, I'm just not interested, thanks but no thanks. You're wasting your time pitching woo in my direction, dear.

Edited June 16, 2018 by James J Johnson

[october]

35 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

GI Joe 21

 

I remembered when 9.8s of this book were a "thing", so I checked GPA. Here is the graph. Ugh. Not a good look. 

 

Edited June 16, 2018 by october

[sfcityduck]

10 minutes ago, James J Johnson said:

 You remind me of a girl in my class when I was back in public school. Everybody would throw themselves all over her, she was "Miss Popularity"

No one who regularly posts on Comics General is Mr., Miss, Ms., or Mrs. Popularity ... unless you spell that with a capital "L".  

If you want good discussions, go to GA.  If you just want lowest common denominator arguments, you're in the right place.  I now regret that a seemingly good thread caused me to waste my time reading page after page of pointless argument culminating in one guy boasting about his post counts and another harkening back to his glory days in "public school" (are you a Brit?).  No wonder the GA guys say to avoid this board.

[VintageComics]

8 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

8 hours ago, NoMan said:

I can't help but agree with this. I just find the films themselves sooooooo bad.

I find the Marvel Cinematic Universe is why I am still even interested in the comic book scene.

Avengers Infinity War and the Black Panther movies are why I am still interested in what happens with these characters and keep coming back.

 

     Imagine if there were no comic book movies at all and the comic book hobby was relying on $4.99 monthly comics to keep the hobby relevant? That would in fact be sad.

Like your excursion into crypto currency, you only find it exciting because there is money to be made.

But to longtime hobbyists, the volatility and flakiness of speculators (what's 'awesome' one day is not awesome the next) is indeed pretty sad.

Where would the hobby be if we didn't have movies? Probably moving along at a slower pace, with less volatility, but steadily forward as it has been for 70 years. 

[James J Johnson]

 

1 minute ago, sfcityduck said:

No wonder the GA guys say to avoid this board.

What a shame! If only they knew what they were missing. I'm going to visit that section and post an invitation to this thread. RSVP, casual attire OK, BYOB.

[James J Johnson]

12 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

No one who regularly posts on Comics General is Mr., Miss, Ms., or Mrs. Popularity ... unless you spell that with a capital "L".  

If you want good discussions, go to GA.  If you just want lowest common denominator arguments, you're in the right place.  I now regret that a seemingly good thread caused me to waste my time reading page after page of pointless argument culminating in one guy boasting about his post counts and another harkening back to his glory days in "public school" (are you a Brit?).  No wonder the GA guys say to avoid this board.

I'm back. I did it! I took the CGC cross-forum shuttle to the Golden age area and posted an invitation here! Hopefully, some of them will reacquaint themselves with Comics General:

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

20 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

Okay -- but it wasn't a massive decline after that first sale. The GPA average of the first three sales of the book in 9.6 -- involving at least two different copies --  was $26,000.

Three sales in 9.6 at an average of $26,000 is a fairly short time span is a more reliable indicator of value than sole-first-to-market, no?

Still a massive decline for a blue chip key in the years since, given that the book has recently sold for less than $6,000.

 

Also, I've made that exact same "wait and see argument" for Copper books ranging from GI Joe 21 to Batman 428 to Harbinger 1 to Wolverine 35.

In each of those cases, I think we'll see a steady continued census growth of 9.8 copies -- as in fact we have already for all but Wolverine 35.

 

No. 

Those three sales all occurred when the census was still sparse. 

You can follow the trail right on down after that $25,000 sale.

These books have all, with very few exceptions, followed the exact same model: low census population, followed by increasing pressure on the market, followed by a burst of new examples to the market, followed by a leveling off to reflect the actual real scarcity of each book in each grade. 

In the case of GL #76, the census went from a single copy in 9.6 in 2009 to SIXTEEN copies in 9.6 by 2013, a mere four years later. There have, since then, only been 3 more copies added to the census, about 1 a year, until we arrive at the total of 19 as it stands today. Is the census going to explode again like it did from 2009 to 2013? Probably not. You might see doubling over time, but I can say, with complete assurance, that you'll never see the census go up 16-fold for that book in that grade ever again.

Same with Harby #1. A 9.8 sells for $2500, and all of sudden, everyone loses their minds. The census explodes. Prices level off. And, finally, the census levels off to a slow, steady trickle. 280 9.8s of all flavors, with pockets coming in here and there, but no doubling over and over, like we saw from 2009 to 2013. 

Same with ASM #301. Four years ago, on this very board, a certain member insisted that ASM #301 was "not rare in any grade, even 9.8!"...at that time, there were something in the neighborhood of 80 copies in 9.8, in all flavors. Now, four years later? There are 124. About a 52% increase in four years, despite massive market pressure to "make more." That's compared to a total of 1,006 9.8 #300s, 647 #299s, and 609 #298s. Oddly enough, #302 is still "rare on the census" at 101 total 9.8s, but I suspect that's because the book is still in its "hasn't really caught everyone's attention yet" stage, unlike #301.

Clearly, the vast majority of these books has had their "come to the census" moments in the last 10 years. You're not going to see the same explosive growth for these books anywhere near the scale that you already have...and that's true, whether it's a Daredevil #168, a GI Joe #21, a Secret Wars #8, or a New Mutants #98.

Comic books simply are not rare, even in ultra high grade, past about 1964.

[RockMyAmadeus]

16 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

No one who regularly posts on Comics General is Mr., Miss, Ms., or Mrs. Popularity ... unless you spell that with a capital "L".  

If you want good discussions, go to GA.  If you just want lowest common denominator arguments, you're in the right place.  I now regret that a seemingly good thread caused me to waste my time reading page after page of pointless argument culminating in one guy boasting about his post counts and another harkening back to his glory days in "public school" (are you a Brit?).  No wonder the GA guys say to avoid this board.

No one is "boasting" about his post counts. It was an illustration to demonstrate a point. You're doing the very thing that you're complaining about. If you want good conversation, then 1. contribute your own good conversation, 2. don't tolerate childish, unproductive commentary (you know, like someone constantly posting about someone else not "letting go"), and 3. don't add your own childish, unproductive comments like this one here.

It's a pretty easy formula to follow.

[RockMyAmadeus]

36 minutes ago, James J Johnson said:

You're definitely barking up the wrong tree, miss, I'm just not interested, and I don't know what I could have stated to lead you to believe that I am. You remind me of a girl in my class when I was back in public school. Everybody would throw themselves all over her, she was "Miss Popularity", and although I wasn't the best looking, the smartest, the richest, or the funniest dude, for some reason, only God knows why, she singled me out to be the focus of her attention. And the more I ignored her and didn't return her advances, the worse her obsession got, a fatal attraction type, much like you, dear. I'd try to avoid her and she'd pop out of bushes. It was weird and quite uncomfortable and embarrassing to tell the truth. But I was more embarrassed for her than I was for me, much like this business here.

I have no idea what your posts with the dog pictures and the little boy on Spider-man's lap were meant to invoke, but like that girl in school, you and your dogs are barking up the wrong tree. Ironically, if you're a male, and I'm still not sure as to your gender, you're way off base, I'm not diverse. And as I suspect, if you're female, I'm just not interested, thanks but no thanks. You're wasting your time pitching woo in my direction, dear.

 

[James J Johnson]

2 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

No. 

Those three sales all occurred when the census was still sparse. 

You can follow the trail right on down after that $25,000 sale.

These books have all, with very few exceptions, followed the exact same model: low census population, followed by increasing pressure on the market, followed by a burst of new examples to the market, followed by a leveling off to reflect the actual real scarcity of each book in each grade. 

In the case of GL #76, the census went from a single copy in 9.6 in 2009 to SIXTEEN copies in 9.6 by 2013, a mere four years later. There have, since then, only been 3 more copies added to the census, about 1 a year, until we arrive at the total of 19 as it stands today. Is the census going to explode again like it did from 2009 to 2013? Probably not. You might see doubling over time, but I can say, with complete assurance, that you'll never see the census go up 16-fold for that book in that grade ever again.

Same with Harby #1. A 9.8 sells for $2500, and all of sudden, everyone loses their minds. The census explodes. Prices level off. And, finally, the census levels off to a slow, steady trickle. 280 9.8s of all flavors, with pockets coming in here and there, but no doubling over and over, like we saw from 2009 to 2013. 

Same with ASM #301. Four years ago, on this very board, a certain member insisted that ASM #301 was "not rare in any grade, even 9.8!"...at that time, there were something in the neighborhood of 80 copies in 9.8, in all flavors. Now, four years later? There are 124. About a 52% increase in four years, despite massive market pressure to "make more." That's compared to a total of 1,006 9.8 #300s, 647 #299s, and 609 #298s. Oddly enough, #302 is still "rare on the census" at 101 total 9.8s, but I suspect that's because the book is still in its "hasn't really caught everyone's attention yet" stage, unlike #301.

Clearly, the vast majority of these books has had their "come to the census" moments in the last 10 years. You're not going to see the same explosive growth for these books anywhere near the scale that you already have...and that's true, whether it's a Daredevil #168, a GI Joe #21, a Secret Wars #8, or a New Mutants #98.

Comic books simply are not rare, even in ultra high grade, past about 1964.

While this is all true, IMO, the same engine driving the interest in the character, the success of the movie and it's ability to have breathed life into the character, is driving the GL comic title market. Aside from Show 22, which is in demand in and of itself, as a first appearance from a lower print run era, what's been the performance of Show 23, 24, and GL 1-40? These books are dirt cheap compared to other titles, especially Marvel SH from the same era. I remember seeing GL 2-5 selling for more, years ago, pre-movie, in grades like CGC 8.0 to 9.2, than they do today, years post movie.

[sfcityduck]

1 minute ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

No one is "boasting" about his post counts. It was an illustration to demonstrate a point. You're doing the very thing that you're complaining about. If you want good conversation, then 1. contribute your own good conversation, 2. don't tolerate childish, unproductive commentary (you know, like someone constantly posting about someone else not "letting go"), and 3. don't add your own childish, unproductive comments like this one here.

It's a pretty easy formula to follow.

LOL!  I love irony. (It's the hypocrisy that is unattractive).

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 minute ago, sfcityduck said:

LOL!  I love irony. (It's the hypocrisy that is unattractive).

No irony here. You might notice, I'm not the one complaining about the thread....................

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

The phenomenon, as I mentioned before, isn't a new one. It's entirely census driven, and happened to 99.99475% (estimated) of all the comics represented on the census.

The same thing happened in coins in 1989-1990, only it happened much, much faster, because of the presence of two, rather than one, "top-tier" grading companies (PCGS and NGC.) 

Here's an excellent article about it, which mirrored the experience in comics to a great degree:

https://www.nationalsilverdollarroundtable.org/the-market-crash-of-‘90/

I highly recommend anyone interested in this aspect of the market to read this article, and then tell me how you could easily exchange "MS-65" for "CGC 9.8"....

[VintageComics]

7 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

Parino's losses on the "pay copy" MC 1 and the Church Flash Comics 1 seem to be written off by many as just his mistake and illustration of the perils of overpaying in private transactions.

The scarier scenario for many, IMHO, is actually the example of the Church run of Flash Comics.  That was not Parino.  And those books were bought at auction, I think, then sold at auction for a lot less.  And a very similar scenario has happened with high grade Barks Duck books.  The lesson of those examples is that auction prices can plummet if just one strong bidder exits the market without someone having come into the market to take his place. 

Folks that think that high grade GA comics will inevitably increase in value are not paying attention to the market history.

Parrino got out in a fire sale to raise money for something else. Had he held onto the books longer he may not have lost much if anything.

When you talk about the Flash Church run, are you talking about the Gary Keller collection that Heritage auctioned off 10 years ago when the housing market crashed?

Gary also sold out of necessity and he sold a massive collection relatively shortly after purchasing much of it. Most of his collection was gobbled up by dealers with very deep pockets (Verzyl brought TONS of old Gary Keller books to San Diego the following year) and they have since resold for huge profits.

The lesson here really, is not to get in or out too quickly.