Getting back on collecting after 15 year absence, new collecting bubble? 0

[Ladic]

So I started collecting around early 90's just when Image was starting, so I lived thru the whole bubble and burst thing, I stopped collecting around early 2000's.

In the last few months I have slowly starting to collecting a little again but I have noticed a new trend in which there are a zillion covers for a particular comic. You get the hottest artists doing limited run on covers and these can cost from $20ish and up and more if you buy signed from them. It seems to be very popular among collectors.

My questions is, will this be a new bubble? do people long term would really care about 80 different comics for a particular spider man issue? or is this a bubble ready to burst?

[MadGenius]

I hope this turns out to be a bubble, because I'm not a fan of variant covers in general. 50/50 ratios are fine, but I wouldn't mind if incentive variants and limited edition runs go away.

[ADAMANTIUM]

10 minutes ago, MadGenius said:

I hope this turns out to be a bubble, because I'm not a fan of variant covers in general. 50/50 ratios are fine, but I wouldn't mind if incentive variants and limited edition runs go away.

I almost think that they would have to, to rise, stay, or keep value.

Kind of like the rai #0's that are gaining traction...

It would be nice to get a little reprieve. 

They would eventually come ago again in the future though.

 

[ExNihilo]

2 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

I almost think that they would have to, to rise, stay, or keep value.

Kind of like the rai #0's that are gaining traction...

It would be nice to get a little reprieve. 

They would eventually come ago again in the future though.

 

Agreed, I think what we're seeing is a cyclical nature in marketing and promotions.  I stopped collecting around 97 and when I returned around 2004, the market had changed.  Gone were the hologram, foil, and die cut covers.  Replaced with just a book and a standard cover.  Fast forward to 2015 and I started yearning for the occasional hologram or foil cover.  Nostalgia was taking hold.  At the time, I didn't realize that foil variants were all the rage on the convention scene.  This slowly made it's way to the market where we saw a slew of lenticular and foil covers from the big 2.  But as quickly as it has returned, it's already worn out its welcome having grown too large, too fast.  I hope the incentive variants get cut back.  Maybe have a bidding system that allows different shops to exclusively have the rights for the incentive cover for a particular book.  For example, maybe Midtown places the highest bid and they have the exclusive right to the incentive variant for Amazing Spider-Man #1.  But then maybe KRS Comics gets the rights for ASM #2.  And maybe comicsketart gets it for ASM #3.  (Or better yet, the publishers limit which books can have inventive variants and which can't, thus eliminating the likelihood that some random book like Renew Your Vows #11 gets a worthless variant cover.)  This way the collecting markets tastes are satiated without a flood of 50 incentive variants diluting the market.  The shops get a bump in revenue from the book sales, the publishers get a cut from the bidding rights, and the market as a whole doesn't suffer.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Oh yes...it's a Bubbilicious bubble.

Who knows where it ends. 

 

[TYPE-R]

It's been bubbling since before I joined this board. There's always something new and exciting that'll end up crashing the market.

Collect what makes you happy and if the bubble bursts you'll still have comics you love.

[revat]

it is a bubble, but not one that I think will burst in any type of a dramatic way.  More like a series of bubbles that inflate until they deflate slightly and a new bubble takes place.  And not a bubble that would put you really at risk if you're just buying stuff you like.  I don't think many of even the most speculative people are going All-In on thousands of variant after variant after variant.  They buy what they like, maybe a few more to sell.  And if the value goes out of them, they can sell them online for minor losses.  The internet is a cushion to soften any crash.

[itcamefromthecopperage]

I don't think its a bubble in the comic book market in general, its more like a foam or froth. Some titles and types of comics are definitely overvalued and oversaturated. Anything related to a movie or TV show currently out or coming out soon definitely seems pricey, and the recent variant craze seems exhausted.  Individual issues can heat up and cool down seemingly overnight.  Collectible comic books in general are expensive, but so are all types of assets: houses, stocks, fine art, and all manner of appreciable assets are expensive. But this is driven more by macro-economic trends than anything specific to do with comic books.  Interest rates are low, consumptive spending is down, the economy is doing well and people and companies are flush with cash to invest into things. I wouldn't say we are seeing a market-wide speculative bubble like we saw in the 90's.  My advise: go slow, don't overextend yourself. Look for value in-between the bubbles of the foam.

Edited June 12, 2018 by itcamefromthecopperage

[valiantman]

The market for slabbed comics is following (and has pretty much always followed) the market for slabbed sportscards.  There are a large number of slabbed comics today which will not sell for the cost of slabbing even in CGC 9.8 grades because no one wants the books. The same thing happened in slabbed cards a decade ago.  If a CGC 9.8 slabbed comic isn't worth the cost of slabbing, you can be sure that the raw comic is pretty much worthless, too.  The expansion of the number of variants combined with the decreasing counts (or at least, the apparent decrease in counts for 1:100, 1:200, 1:500, etc.), means that there are 100, 200, and 500 "nothing special" comics for every one copy that is... and "nothing special" comics aren't a good way to spend $3.99.

There is still a market for outrageous sportscard slabs - 1-of-100, 1-of-10, 1-of-1 unique - but the number of people playing in that $10,000+ market for recent cards is probably just dozens.  The same thing will happen (if it hasn't happened already) as the rare variants for comics get "rarer and rarer"... there will be a Spider-man book that has 50 copies worldwide... or 10 copies... or 5 copies... or a completely one-of-a-kind no-one-else-will-ever-have-it Spider-man... or Batman... or Red Gwenomaryjcarnageoblin Morales.

At that point, much like the sportscard market, there will be two distinct markets... insanely rare recent... and classic books printed before the variant insanity.  The comics caught in between (post-2000 books, most of the 1:10, 1:20, 1:50 books purchased for $10, $20, and $50) without a huge character with incredible appeal across the board, will unfortunately, be mostly worthless.

I believe the bubble will pop on $20 to $50 recent books.  Classic key issues will probably be fine (they could fall, but not bubble-pop), and $1,000 comics will probably always have buyers who like to play at the high roller table, but $1,000 in 1:20 variants for unimportant issues could be worth $200 overnight... and no one will really be surprised.  

At some point, all books worth $20+ need a reason to sustain the $20+.  "It used to be considered rare" is not going to sustain the market.

Edited June 12, 2018 by valiantman

[itcamefromthecopperage]

One other thing, beware of FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out.  At the end of the day is the root cause of just about any asset bubble.  I can assure you, you aren't missing out.  Just ask anyone who paid 7,8, or 9 hundred dollars for an Ultimate Spider-man #1 back in 2005.  

 

 

Edited June 12, 2018 by itcamefromthecopperage
Rookie poster

[WolverineX]

The bubble popping has started.  I'm tapping out soon.  Getting too much fatigue from all these covers...

[MGH]

6 hours ago, Wolverinex said:

The bubble popping has started.  I'm tapping out soon.  Getting too much fatigue from all these covers...

Yep 

..... Just one more and I'm done... Just one 

Until I see next awesome variant.. 

[story cover & art by...]

just don't buy them... I don't... Ive been collecting bronze age myself...

[Mercury Man]

The only bubbles bursting are the variant freaks.   I actually still READ everything I buy.   I try to start topics on what people thought about the recent storyline in 'X' and it's mostly 1 or 2 responses then crickets.  I buy the usual cover, read the story once or twice, then file away in my run.   The variant freaks will drop out when the bubble does burst, and I will still own what I love, a comic I purchased at cover price, that is still probably worth less than what I paid for it.  Nobody buys a book at Barnes & Noble thinking it will go up in value.  That is how I treat Modern Newly Released comics. 

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

10 hours ago, Mercury Man said:

The only bubbles bursting are the variant freaks.   I actually still READ everything I buy.   I try to start topics on what people thought about the recent storyline in 'X' and it's mostly 1 or 2 responses then crickets.  I buy the usual cover, read the story once or twice, then file away in my run.   The variant freaks will drop out when the bubble does burst, and I will still own what I love, a comic I purchased at cover price, that is still probably worth less than what I paid for it.  Nobody buys a book at Barnes & Noble thinking it will go up in value.  That is how I treat Modern Newly Released comics. 

I've found that mostly the boards here aren't good for discussing the stories themselves, but more focused on the hobby. Kinda makes sense considering it's the board of a company that makes reading your book impossible. Gotta search out those boards elsewhere

[Mercury Man]

3 hours ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

I've found that mostly the boards here aren't good for discussing the stories themselves, but more focused on the hobby. Kinda makes sense considering it's the board of a company that makes reading your book impossible. Gotta search out those boards elsewhere

Yeah, it's ironic that we are in a hobby with the word 'book' in it, but many don't actually read the insides. 

[Bomber-Bob]

On 6/12/2018 at 5:35 PM, itcamefromthecopperage said:

One other thing, beware of FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out.  At the end of the day is the root cause of just about any asset bubble.  I can assure you, you aren't missing out.  Just ask anyone who paid 7,8, or 9 hundred dollars for an Ultimate Spider-man #1 back in 2005.  

 

That's a good example. I forgot all about Ultimate Spider-Man #1. That was big in the day, a few variants also.   

[fastballspecial]

Really the age old advice works here, but what you like and what you can afford.

There is new growth in our hobby from the art side of it with people like just covers. Hawkman 2 last week was a prime example.
Beautiful cover. Buyers may never read the book. 

We currently have speculator web sites who run polls weekly collecting date on users who unwittingly give it in the name of a giveaway.
Not saying its a bad thing, but it is data. There goal is to build a speculation site similar to wizard years ago. Good or bad for the hobby? Not 
for me to judge, just laying out what I see.

The ability to buy books has never been more accessible, but the quality really isn't good right now overall. Its seems to get good for awhile then
fall back down again. The art has definitely suffered as artists can get more money doing a cover then a book now and its faster.

I really thought Batman 50 would have a dramatic change in the market, but it looks like it wasn't enough yet. The rise of online retailers
really concerns me as well as their customer service with some just isn't very good.

I don't think we are there yet, but I definitely not putting any money in variants unless I see them for $1.

Edited July 25, 2018 by fastballspecial

[Octavius]

For someone such as myself, who reads mainly online, the variants are of particular interest. I have personally bought issues I never would have, for example the Artgerm variants of Supergirl, purely due to the art on the covers. I may never read the books, but I do enjoy collecting the artwork strictly for the art itself.

Do not get me started on all the variants available for Zenescope however, my credit card hates me.

[jason4]

On 6/13/2018 at 3:32 PM, story cover & art by... said:

just don't buy them... I don't... Ive been collecting bronze age myself...

I’m done with variants. Have 5 I really like no more than 100 dollars each and now I’m back focusing on completing amazing Spider-Man 1-100 silver age. I like these books and feel a lot better buying them than any 500.00 modern variant with no reason to own except the cover.