Are comics gaining more respect as a valid investment outside of the comic collecting community? 8 8

[Mercury Man]

6 hours ago, skypinkblu said:

How many of you can live in a comic book?  They aren't terribly practical for shelter in rain or snow;)

My house appreciated in value enough for me to buy another nice one without a mortgage and some comics, too.

Not to mention, say you live there 15-20-30 years, yes you will need to do things like a roof, upgrades, fence etc.  Costs associated with living in it. EVEN after all of that, if you just broke even over those years when you sold it, it still beats paying rent which goes into a black hole. 

[kimik]

17 hours ago, Mercury Man said:

If I go to a bank and ask for a loan, they are going to ask about my assets. 

I will tell them (and this is all just an example, not what I own)

A) $150,000 equity in real estate

B) $20,000 in checking and savings 

C) $5,000 in Mutual funds

D) a paid off 2012 SUV

E) $8,000 in comic books

Which one of the above do you think will not factor into their decision about getting me a loan? 

It depends on the bank. I always list my collectibles as an asset and they note it down in my net worth statement. 

[kimik]

 

13 minutes ago, Mercury Man said:

Not to mention, say you live there 15-20-30 years, yes you will need to do things like a roof, upgrades, fence etc.  Costs associated with living in it. EVEN after all of that, if you just broke even over those years when you sold it, it still beats paying rent which goes into a black hole. 

That really depends on where you live and when you bought your home. People seem to view real estate as running up in value slowly and steadily, but it is more bubble oriented than the stock market with long cycles of price correction and stagnation in between 3 - 5 year spikes. If you bought a house at the peak of the 1977 - 81 bubble here in Alberta, you would not have seen the same price levels until 2003/04. If you bought it during the peak of the 2007/08 bubble, you are likely still down in a lot of markets (even in top neighbourhoods). As interest rates rise, demand will taper and values may fall further since people cannot afford to finance as high of prices. We are likely heading that way now.

We own real estate, equities, and my collectibles, and the biggest issue with real estate IMHO is that it is way less liquid than the other two asset classes. Equities take 1 minute to buy or sell, whether for a profit or a loss when you need/want to. I can liquidate all of my comics within a week if I needed to (sooner for the keys). However, real estate takes weeks or months and even then, if the market turns, you cannot sell it. That is the biggest issue with real estate - unless you are selling in one of the shorter run up periods, it is far less liquid than other asset classes (even in high demand areas/neighbourhoods). 

[october]

19 minutes ago, kimik said:

 

We own real estate, equities, and my collectibles, and the biggest issue with real estate IMHO is that it is way less liquid than the other two asset classes. Equities take 1 minute to buy or sell, whether for a profit or a loss when you need/want to. I can liquidate all of my comics within a week if I needed to (sooner for the keys). However, real estate takes weeks or months and even then, if the market turns, you cannot sell it. That is the biggest issue with real estate - unless you are selling in one of the shorter run up periods, it is far less liquid than other asset classes (even in high demand areas/neighbourhoods). 

There are also a lot more costs and legal headaches associated with liquidating real estate. On the other hand, the profits from real estate may be tax sheltered depending on the details. 

Determining the best investment is nuanced, so I just try to own both. 

Edited June 19, 2018 by october

[kimik]

Just now, october said:

There are also a lot more costs and legal headaches associated with liquidating real estate. On the other hand, the profits from real estate may be tax sheltered. 

Determining the best investment is nuanced, so I just try to own both. 

My wife likes real estate, I prefer equities - there is a lot less manual labor in equities. 

[october]

10 minutes ago, kimik said:

My wife likes real estate, I prefer equities - there is a lot less manual labor in equities. 

There are pros and cons to both. Real estate (that you don't live in) requires more work and legal headaches, as well as upkeep costs like property taxes and maintenance, is susceptible to damage or misuse, but spins off substantial monthly rental income. Stocks are extremely liquid, require no upkeep, may pay dividends and may get hit less by the tax man. Comics are (arguably) the most fun to own, require no upkeep, but are susceptible to loss/theft/damage. All three may lose value. 

I understand comics FAR, FAR better than I do the real estate market or stocks, so I choose to use my spare money to deal in them. I have been far more successful doing that than I would have been dumping my discretionary, non-retirement money into rental properties or stocks that I a) don't understand the market for and b) don't have an interest in. So far it has worked well. That said, is something like an ASM 1 slab purchased at fair market value a replacement for traditional investment vehicles like stocks and bonds? I don't think so. I would rather bet my long-term investment funds on the overall strength of the US economy than I would on the comic market. 

Edited June 19, 2018 by october

[Pete Marino]

so, I ran the number real quick in an online calculator.

the one thing you guys are missing is dividends.  It's one of the biggest factors in investing in the DJIA vs comics.

when you reinvest your dividends, from 1961 to today your return is 25,023.440%, just over 10% annually.

Here's a link you can try out yourself

https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/

[october]

2 minutes ago, Pete Marino said:

so, I ran the number real quick in an online calculator.

the one thing you guys are missing is dividends.  It's one of the biggest factors in investing in the DJIA vs comics.

when you reinvest your dividends, from 1961 to today your return is 25,023.440%, just over 10% annually.

Here's a link you can try out yourself

https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/

That's true, but those numbers you gave once again don't account for inflation. Using the inflation adjusted calculator in that link we get a much lower 2,883% return over that time period. ~6% annually. 

[Pete Marino]

1 minute ago, october said:

That's true, but those numbers you gave once again don't account for inflation. Using the inflation adjusted calculator in that link we get a much lower 2,883% return over that time period. ~6% annually. 

which is still over a 28x return over inflation, and very few people think of return over inflation vs true returns.

Either way, it's a lot more than the about 4x that people were trying to talk about to start this conversation.

Edited June 19, 2018 by Pete Marino

[Artboy99]

42 minutes ago, kimik said:

 

That really depends on where you live and when you bought your home. People seem to view real estate as running up in value slowly and steadily, but it is more bubble oriented than the stock market with long cycles of price correction and stagnation in between 3 - 5 year spikes. If you bought a house at the peak of the 1977 - 81 bubble here in Alberta, you would not have seen the same price levels until 2003/04. If you bought it during the peak of the 2007/08 bubble, you are likely still down in a lot of markets (even in top neighbourhoods). As interest rates rise, demand will taper and values may fall further since people cannot afford to finance as high of prices. We are likely heading that way now.

We own real estate, equities, and my collectibles, and the biggest issue with real estate IMHO is that it is way less liquid than the other two asset classes. Equities take 1 minute to buy or sell, whether for a profit or a loss when you need/want to. I can liquidate all of my comics within a week if I needed to (sooner for the keys). However, real estate takes weeks or months and even then, if the market turns, you cannot sell it. That is the biggest issue with real estate - unless you are selling in one of the shorter run up periods, it is far less liquid than other asset classes (even in high demand areas/neighbourhoods). 

I bought my Condo in the mentioned 2007/08 bubble. I paid $190,000 for the small 1 bedroom I live in. Today the city assessment for property taxes states the value is $155,000. If I tried to sell it I would be fortunate to get $130,000 due to current market which is a buyers market: lots of properties available.

[kimik]

10 minutes ago, Pete Marino said:

so, I ran the number real quick in an online calculator.

the one thing you guys are missing is dividends.  It's one of the biggest factors in investing in the DJIA vs comics.

when you reinvest your dividends, from 1961 to today your return is 25,023.440%, just over 10% annually.

Here's a link you can try out yourself

https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/

Agree wholeheartedly re: power of dividend investing. Over the long haul it is the way to go, with some more speculative cap gains type investments mixed in as well to provide the short term gains to build a nice portfolio with.

[Mercury Man]

2 hours ago, Artboy99 said:

I bought my Condo in the mentioned 2007/08 bubble. I paid $190,000 for the small 1 bedroom I live in. Today the city assessment for property taxes states the value is $155,000. If I tried to sell it I would be fortunate to get $130,000 due to current market which is a buyers market: lots of properties available.

Right now in my part of Florida, houses are lasting less than a week and getting asking price.  One just listed around the block from me on Saturday....Contract Pending Monday.  

[Mystafo]

I'd like to thank this thread as well as FFS and his cheerleader 50's whatever for adding to my ignore list (I didn't have one until this year,  now 10 deep).

I look forward to never having to read your brapp again. 

[piper]

5 hours ago, Artboy99 said:

I bought my Condo in the mentioned 2007/08 bubble. I paid $190,000 for the small 1 bedroom I live in. Today the city assessment for property taxes states the value is $155,000. If I tried to sell it I would be fortunate to get $130,000 due to current market which is a buyers market: lots of properties available.

City Assessments in our fair city are notoriously low relative to fair market value.

[FSF]

First off, we can selectively choose all sorts of individual stocks that had astounding returns over whatever period of time we want to play with.  The bottom line is, someone who knows nothing about stocks can dump their money into a widely diversified ETF and call it a day and the returns should easily outpace even the best of most all comic returns (and I think ALL grail comics because they don't have the MAIN and really ONLY advantage of starting from such a low point anymore), let alone the entire comic market which will not yield any return in my opinion and return a huge negative.

Two, everyone is looking back in hindsight to prove their comic "investment" returns but we all know that if even 1 measly percent kept their Action 1s or AF15s or FF1s in VF+ condition, the values would be a fraction of what they are today.  Comics, like cards and coins, really only go through one or maybe two major secular spikes.  IMO, that happened with the 1980s/90s and then the first several years of CGC.  Since then, the returns on a total basis (even excluding 99% which are dreck) have not been by any means that great.

Do you folks realize that the vast majority of certified "investment" grade coins are worth LESS than they were over 30 and in many cases 40 years ago.  I'm talking in NOMINAL dollars at that.  Chew on that for a bit and try convince yourself why comics are so special.

Also, I'm not sure who posted that real estate taxes are the only expense they have but I seriously hope they just forgot to mention insurance.

[BlowUpTheMoon]

Boston Corbett? 

[RockMyAmadeus]

19 minutes ago, FSF said:

Do you folks realize that the vast majority of certified "investment" grade coins are worth LESS than they were over 30 and in many cases 40 years ago.  I'm talking in NOMINAL dollars at that.

Depends what you're referring to, and the time period in question.

Without a doubt, 99% of all such coins are worth more, adjusted for inflation, than they were in 1978. Much more. But, since certification didn't functionally exist in 1978 (it did...sorta), then it required buyers to have a good eye and an ability to grade.

30 years ago, however, was the height of the Census Bubble, so yes, the vast majority of common high grade coins are worth less, and have never recovered...but that was a function of the Census Bubble, not the wider economy. 

Same thing happened to comics.

[FSF]

19 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Depends what you're referring to, and the time period in question.

Without a doubt, 99% of all such coins are worth more, adjusted for inflation, than they were in 1978. Much more. But, since certification didn't functionally exist in 1978 (it did...sorta), then it required buyers to have a good eye and an ability to grade.

30 years ago, however, was the height of the Census Bubble, so yes, the vast majority of common high grade coins are worth less, and have never recovered...but that was a function of the Census Bubble, not the wider economy. 

Same thing happened to comics.

I agree that the census bubble had a lot to do with that.  But by no means is that the only factor.  Prior to PCGS/NGC, raw MS65 Morgans, Walkers, etc. which comprised a huge portion of the then "investment grade rare coins" were selling for several hundred dollars in the preceding 6-8 years (though the numbers vary depending on exactly when).  Also, I'm sure we can agree those were inferior grades compared to certification.  Of course they don't grade as tight as they did in the late 1980s, which is an entirely different matter.  Also, an entire series like Barbers, in all denoms, are less then they were back when and are going begging for collectors today.  We're talking about a series that legitimately is pretty scarce/rare but affordable and yet they can't really find a collecting audience aside from the obligatory type collectors.

 

[fastballspecial]

11 hours ago, HeyMoe said:

What would make the neighborhood go to hell?

renting

 

[1950's war comics]

2 minutes ago, FSF said:

I agree that the census bubble had a lot to do with that.  But by no means is that the only factor.  Prior to PCGS/NGC, raw MS65 Morgans, Walkers, etc. which comprised a huge portion of the then "investment grade rare coins" were selling for several hundred dollars in the preceding 6-8 years (though the numbers vary depending on exactly when).  Also, I'm sure we can agree those were inferior grades compared to certification.  Of course they don't grade as tight as they did in the late 1980s, which is an entirely different matter.  Also, an entire series like Barbers, in all denoms, are less then they were back when and are going begging for collectors today.  We're talking about a series that legitimately is pretty scarce/rare but affordable and yet they can't really find a collecting audience aside from the obligatory type collectors.

 

might be time for me to put that Barber quarter collection together that  i always wanted too , especially since i am just a collector and not an investor

1901 s Barber in a nice original lookingVG has always been a holy grail of mine