Cliff R. Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Let's say that you are a very consistent grader, and able to grade within plus or minus one grade every time. Let's also say that you're equally likely to undergrade, overgrade, or get a bullseye. Let's see how many points you would have after round 8. You've graded 16 books. 5 will be undergraded, 5 will be overgraded, and 5 will be bullseyes. The remaining book will most likely be over or under. 3 points for each over and under = 3 x 11 = 33 5 points for each bullseye = 5 x 5 = 25 58 points total. What are the odds of getting double bullseyes? 1 in 9. Quadruple bullseyes? 1 in 81 The current 2 leaders are better than this. kav, jcjames and 1950's war comics 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skypinkblu Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 (edited) On 6/27/2018 at 5:15 PM, Cliff R. said: Let's say that you are a very consistent grader, and able to grade within plus or minus one grade every time. Let's also say that you're equally likely to undergrade, overgrade, or get a bullseye. Let's see how many points you would have after round 8. You've graded 16 books. 5 will be undergraded, 5 will be overgraded, and 5 will be bullseyes. The remaining book will most likely be over or under. 3 points for each over and under = 3 x 11 = 33 5 points for each bullseye = 5 x 5 = 25 58 points total. What are the odds of getting double bullseyes? 1 in 9. Quadruple bullseyes? 1 in 81 The current 2 leaders are better than this. I don't usually join these contests, so I have no stake here, but I'd like to say something in response to your comment. I think that what Ryan. said hits the mark. You are grading through plastic, don't sweat it. A lot of it is guessing between two grades and you are not factoring in luck along with grading skills. As for the 2 leaders, I only know one of them, but I've known him for years, one of the nicest people on the forum and he's a very good grader, so forgive me #2, but Go Dwayne!! great job! Good luck of course to everyone else as well. Edited June 29, 2018 by skypinkblu extra "the" Azkaban and ADAMANTIUM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cliff R. Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, skypinkblu said: I don't usually join these contests, so I have no stake here, but I'd like to say something in response to your comment. I think that the what Ryan. said hits the mark. You are grading through plastic, don't sweat it. A lot of it is guessing between two grades and you are not factoring in luck along with grading skills. As for the 2 leaders, I only know one of them, but I've known him for years, one of the nicest people on the forum and he's a very good grader, so forgive me #2, but Go Dwayne!! great job! Good luck of course to everyone else as well. Hi Sharon, I can usually guess a CGC grade within +/- 3 grades. My simplified mathematical model was just a goal to shoot for. I'm not in the contest this year, but it looks like fun. And frustration. skypinkblu, thirdgreenham and ADAMANTIUM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kav Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, Cliff R. said: Hi Sharon, I can usually guess a CGC grade within +/- 3 grades. My simplified mathematical model was just a goal to shoot for. I'm not in the contest this year, but it looks like fun. And frustration. I can always get within 0.5, or some other number, of the actual grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hudson Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, kav said: I can always get within 0.5, or some other number, of the actual grade. I have not lost more than one point on any book I have guessed on so far! kav and skypinkblu 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skypinkblu Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 2 hours ago, Cliff R. said: Hi Sharon, I can usually guess a CGC grade within +/- 3 grades. My simplified mathematical model was just a goal to shoot for. I'm not in the contest this year, but it looks like fun. And frustration. One of the problems is, the graders are human and therefore not perfectly consistent. The other problem is, the contestants are human and not robots;) Huge kudos to Andy and Shin for doing the contest and of course all the brave contestants. Cliff R., Cocomonkey, 1950's war comics and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hudson Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 51 minutes ago, skypinkblu said: Huge kudos to Andy and Shin for doing the contest and of course all the brave contestants. THIS DESERVES AN OLD FASHION +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azkaban Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 4 hours ago, skypinkblu said: I don't usually join these contests, so I have no stake here, but I'd like to say something in response to your comment. I think that what Ryan. said hits the mark. You are grading through plastic, don't sweat it. A lot of it is guessing between two grades and you are not factoring in luck along with grading skills. As for the 2 leaders, I only know one of them, but I've known him for years, one of the nicest people on the forum and he's a very good grader, so forgive me #2, but Go Dwayne!! great job! Good luck of course to everyone else as well. thanks Sharon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
