What percent of existing copies of Action 1, Detective 27, Superman 1, and Batman 1 are already CGC graded? 1 1

[Chicago Boy]

YES !!!!!!!   FINALLY.!  A WIN FOR THE HOBBY !!  Thx for letting the community know !

[Chicago Boy]

And Voldy separated trimmed from restored !  Hear ! Hear !  Wish cgc would  make that change for the good if the hobby imo 

[alexgross.com]

but how many copies of the big 4 or big 5 might be hidden in attics and unknown to the owners? does that still happen?

[Chicago Boy]

1 hour ago, Lukesaurus said:

 CBCS just launched their census so anyone looking can get a more detailed picture of the total number of graded copies . Or not.

 

20 minutes ago, www.alexgross.com said:

but how many copies of the big 4 or big 5 might be hidden in attics and unknown to the owners? does that still happen?

Finds Still happen. We’ll never know how many copies. 

[fishbone]

Rick has answered numerous times, with his unparalleled knowledge of these things, his guestamation of the number of non-registered, not-yet-slabbed mega keys, especially AC#1

I'm good with that.

[waaaghboss]

So cbcs has 7 graded action comic 1's.  I'm surprised it's not a bit higher, but I'm not familiar with grading companies.  17 graded detective 27's. 104 Superman 1's, and 60 Batman 1's.

And apparently I'm the owner of the highest graded and only submitted copy of single series 1.  *struts*

 

Edited April 30, 2020 by waaaghboss

[Wayne-Tec]

8 hours ago, fishbone said:

Rick has answered numerous times, with his unparalleled knowledge of these things, his guestamation of the number of non-registered, not-yet-slabbed mega keys, especially AC#1

I'm good with that.

@G.A.tor Rick, what is your % estimate as of today?

30% of existing copies slabbed? 20%? 10%?

[Dark Knight]

3 hours ago, waaaghboss said:

So cbcs has 7 graded action comic 1's.  I'm surprised it's not a bit higher, but I'm not familiar with grading companies.  17 graded detective 27's. 104 Superman 1's, and 60 Batman 1's.

And apparently I'm the owner of the highest graded and only submitted copy of single series 1.  *struts*

 

Now that's a whole lotta Supes 1 graded given how rare it is to find in any grade .  I wonder if most of it are just single pages 

[Lukesaurus]

64 are single pages . 

[Chicago Boy]

2 hours ago, Lukesaurus said:

64 are single pages . 

One of the Tec 27’s is a legitimate back cover. I think this census ( population report ) is very in depth and the pictures plus page quality etc are a plus. Assuming this detail is what took so dang long 

[G.A.tor]

10 hours ago, Wayne-Tec said:

@G.A.tor Rick, what is your % estimate as of today?

30% of existing copies slabbed? 20%? 10%?

Same as before. Nothing has changed 

[namisgr]

How much redundancy do people think there is in the CGC census figures for the biggest keys?  There must be examples of resubmissions where the original submission wasn't disclosed to CGC and removed from their census.

[telerites]

4 minutes ago, namisgr said:

How much redundancy do people think there is in the CGC census figures for the biggest keys?  There must be examples of resubmissions where the original submission wasn't disclosed to CGC and removed from their census.

I know there have been some threads showing examples especially with CPR and spine realignment.  To the best of memory, some were "bigger" keys where the original label evidently wasn't returned and stayed on the census.  I also think some books went through multiple iterations of CPR with all previous grades remaining on the census.  Some now also reside in a Voldy slab I would guess.

So nothing helpful - maybe someone has kept up as best as possible to have some guess.

I remember a 'Tec 27 jumping from PLOD 9.2 to PLOD 9.4.  I found that thread -

 

[rob_react]

4 minutes ago, telerites said:

Some now also reside in a Voldy slab I would guess.

 

The biggest, basically insane, example is the Rockford Detective #27 which, for no reason I can understand, swapped companies (it remains a 6.0)

[Chicago Boy]

46 minutes ago, rob_react said:

The biggest, basically insane, example is the Rockford Detective #27 which, for no reason I can understand, swapped companies (it remains a 6.0)

That 3.0 on their census is a stunner 

[Wayne-Tec]

On 7/27/2018 at 7:19 PM, G.A.tor said:

my estimate is 150+ of action 1 and tec 27 and with already 250+ batman 1 slabbed, I think my 300-500 est is pretty safe... Captain America 1 might be a tad less than Bat 1, and I think superman 1 a tad less than that...

but no one knows

I don't want to speak for you Rick, but by those estimates and for the sake of discussion, lets say there are...

Numbers in parenthesis represent the total number of slabbed CGC/Voldy copies (0.5 and above)

 

Action #1

175 total

(75) slabbed (43%)

Detective #27

175 total

(77) slabbed (44%)

Superman #1

300 total

(174) slabbed (58%)

Captain America #1

350 total

(186) slabbed (53%)

Batman #1

400 total

(301) slabbed (75%)

 

Perhaps Batman #1 is the exception here, with 3/4 of existing copies already being slabbed.

But s far the other four books, we're looking at roughly 50% of existing copies remaining raw, undiscovered or in private collections.

[Chicago Boy]

2 hours ago, Wayne-Tec said:

I don't want to speak for you Rick, but by those estimates and for the sake of discussion, lets say there are...

Numbers in parenthesis represent the total number of slabbed CGC/Voldy copies (0.5 and above)

 

Action #1

175 total

(75) slabbed (43%)

Detective #27

175 total

(77) slabbed (44%)

Superman #1

300 total

(174) slabbed (58%)

Captain America #1

350 total

(186) slabbed (53%)

Batman #1

400 total

(301) slabbed (75%)

 

Perhaps Batman #1 is the exception here, with 3/4 of existing copies already being slabbed.

But s far the other four books, we're looking at roughly 50% of existing copies remaining raw, undiscovered or in private collections.

Roughly 50% ?!  That sure seems like a Heck of a lot Action 1’s & Tec 27’s “ unaccounted for “   Throw Marvel 1 in this discussion 

[Wayne-Tec]

40 minutes ago, Chicago Boy said:

Roughly 50% ?!  That sure seems like a Heck of a lot Action 1’s & Tec 27’s “ unaccounted for “   Throw Marvel 1 in this discussion 

This is all speculation of course, it could be over or under 50%.

But using 50% as a point of discussion, we can somewhat break down collectors into 2 groups.

 

(Group A) Those who have slabbed their copies:

• Preferred books slabbed.
• Wanted the physical protection slabs provide.
• Wanted restoration-check.
• Slabbed them to maximize return on investment.
• Purchased their copy slabbed.

 

(Group B) Those who have kept their copies raw:

• Have no desire to sell (too wealthy for it matter)
• Have no desire to sell (love for the books outweighs financial incentive)
• Don't feel comfortable shipping valuable books and are not tempted/comfortable enough to fly them down personally.

 

Within Group B, what % of owners could benefit from the 6-7 figure compensation (pay for a grandchild's college for instance), but choose not to sell because their love for the book outweighs that incentive.

Within Group B, what % of owners are so wealthy that 6-7 figure compensation doesn't tempt them enough to sell?

Within Group A, what % of owners bought a slabbed copy and have held onto that copy ever since, never re-selling.

Those are all fair questions to ask.

If you're curious if 50% slabbed/50% raw is an accurate guesstimate, you have to ask yourself, which group do you feel has more members?

If you feel there are more collectors matching Group A, then you'd have to guess that more than 50% of existing copies have already been slabbed.

If you feel there are more collectors matching Group B, then you'd have to guess that more than 50% of existing copies remain raw.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Wayne-Tec

[Chicago Boy]

Let’s expand on this just a bit : How many RAW Action 1’s , Tec 27, & / or Marvel 1’s do you CURRENTLY know exist ?  I personally know of 4 RAW Action 1’s. ( and have heard of at least 2 more ).  

[Dark Knight]

I'm guessing that there are roughly 50 raw copies of Action 1 and Tec 27, and more confident that the number for each is under 100 raw copies. With social media, the buzz around valuations for mega key books, Google and other search engines, word of mouth, etc. I feel that the people who are not comic collectors/dealers and no nothing about it or don't seem to care but have a copy would likely sell for the money. In contrast, those who are in this hobby and have a raw copy would likely keep raw until it's time to sell.   I suppose the major players who have an Action 1, Tec 27, etc. raw can easily be accounted for.  So best to start from there with a count.