Dealers / Rinse and Repeat model 7 7

[shane1956]

After watching various You Tube clips and interviews based around Vincent Zurzolo and Stephen Fisher of Metropolis comics I started pondering a few things . I'll start by saying both are without a doubt experts in this field and clearly very successful in what they do .  In one video from about 3 years ago , Zurzolo makes a comment to the effect  that we have only entered the "adolescent phase" of comic book values . He's very convincing and his opinion is well presented in interview after interview. That said , I started to ponder the question below. 

Put aside for a moment the fact that there are new finds. Here the big vintage comic dealers buy up these raw collections at a steep discount , have them graded , and sell at a nice profit margin. My query is on the following area .A large part of the business of major vintage dealers seems to be that they acquire an already graded CGC book from a motivated seller , flip it to the next motivated buyer at a profit , re-acquire it or  a similar example , mark it up , and sell it. The mark up is on the expectation that the next buyer will pay more for the same product . Rinse and repeat. 

Take Amazing Fantasy 15 as an obvious example. Many if not the majority of books we have seen sold for years now are dealer "rinse and repeats". This entire model seems to be held up on the fundamental expectation the these key books will keep going higher and higher or by extending on Mr. Zurzolo's comment until they reach adulthood so to speak.  

Clearly , those who deal in vintage comics as a primary source of income or as a way to supplement their income must recognize the obvious "rinse and repeat" aspect of what has been going on for years now. With so much time and finances invested into owning such a major business like Metropolis do these dealers ever get concerned that there is a ceiling to the same AF #15 5.0 being sold over and over again ? Higher and higher with each turn giving a bit more out of a perpetual return. 

I guess my questions are :1) How much juice can you squeeze out of the same lemon? 2) With so much invested in this business do you see a great deal of juice left in the lemon over the long term?  3) When do you see this adolescent phase reaching adulthood ?

I don't have the answer ; i'm not sure anyone does. However, what do people think?  

 

 

 

 

Edited August 12, 2018 by shane1956

[Not A Clone]

8 hours ago, shane1956 said:

After watching various You Tube clips and interviews based around Vincent Zurzolo and Stephen Fisher of Metropolis comics I started pondering a few things . I'll start by saying both are without a doubt experts in this field and clearly very successful in what they do .  In one video from about 3 years ago , Zurzolo makes a comment to the effect  that we have only entered the "adolescent phase" of comic book values . He's very convincing and his opinion is well presented in interview after interview. That said , I started to ponder the question below. 

Put aside for a moment the fact that there are new finds. Here the big vintage comic dealers buy up these raw collections at a steep discount , have them graded , and sell at a nice profit margin. My query is on the following area .A large part of the business of major vintage dealers seems to be that they acquire an already graded CGC book from a motivated seller , flip it to the next motivated buyer at a profit , re-acquire it or  a similar example , mark it up , and sell it. The mark up is on the expectation that the next buyer will pay more for the same product . Rinse and repeat. 

Take Amazing Fantasy 15 as an obvious example. Many if not the majority of books we have seen sold for years now are dealer "rinse and repeats". This entire model seems to be held up on the fundamental expectation the these key books will keep going higher and higher or by extending on Mr. Zurzolo's comment until they reach adulthood so to speak.  

Clearly , those who deal in vintage comics as a primary source of income or as a way to supplement their income must recognize the obvious "rinse and repeat" aspect of what has been going on for years now. With so much time and finances invested into owning such a major business like Metropolis do these dealers ever get concerned that there is a ceiling to the same AF #15 5.0 being sold over and over again ? Higher and higher with each turn giving a bit more out of a perpetual return. 

I guess my questions are :1) How much juice can you squeeze out of the same lemon? 2) With so much invested in this business do you see a great deal of juice left in the lemon over the long term?  3) When do you see this adolescent phase reaching adulthood ?

I don't have the answer ; i'm not sure anyone does. However, what do people think?  

 

 

 

 

Good questions that I'm not qualified to answer. Would like to see what others think though. If prices on keys always went up there would be a point where even a 0.5 Hulk #181 would eventually price itself out of range for nearly everyone. I would imagine the economy would keep prices in line. If the economy takes an extended dip, someone would undoubtedly have to sell something & settle for less than they paid, bringing the average price down. That's all I got.

[Mercury Man]

The biggest concern and health of comic values will be the 'Next' Generation.   Model Trains and Stamp Collectors have gone the way of the Do-Do.  Young people don't care about rare Lionel Model trains or elusive mint Stamps.  The average age of this demographic of collectors keeps inching up and up. That is not good for their hobby.  

It will be interesting to see what happens with print comics and our hobby.  I think some of the main keys will always be solid.  But look at what happens to a lot of the first appearance villains when the movies come out.  The books sell well, and quite a bit, then they come to earth.  Avengers #55 comes to mind.  Now that Thanos has had his moment, interested to see what happens with his first appearance prices.   Don't get me started on the variant books.  Look out beloooooow......

[HENRYSPENCER]

No different than your treasuries.  Corporations in a healthy economy buy back their shares and resell for profit all the time.  Such practices are vital to maintaining consumer interest.

[1Cool]

I'm not sure I 100% understand the question but since there is so much product out in the world I see very little reason to worry about the process falling apart anytime soon.  Big dealers buy from small dealers . . small dealers hunt all over to pick up close out sales from local comic shops . collectors die and people may grab books for cheap from the family which starts the process all over again.  Graded books get cracked out to get grade bumps and hot books are popping up every week.  There has to a ceiling for hot keys books but even if books hit the ceiling there are a ton of people who don't know the current prices of books so I'd not be too worried about dealers being able to find books to flip.  The biggest worry I see is the shear number of dealers/sellers/flippers keeps going up each years so the competition may make it tough for big dealers to get in enough books to keep making a living at it but so far things seem to be running smoothly for most the people I talk to.

[Junkdrawer]

Comic books have been proven over the years to be assets. In most cases they will appreciate in value. By having your finger on the pulse of the hobby, both ears and eyes open, live and breath Comics each day, scan upcoming auctions, check results etc etc etc, you will have a better understanding of what to buy, when to sell, and what is the difference between a good deal and a not so good deal. You may also want to understand untapped potential as a way to make better purchases and I’m talkin pressable defects. Why wait for a movie

[DanCooper]

16 hours ago, Mercury Man said:

The biggest concern and health of comic values will be the 'Next' Generation.   Model Trains and Stamp Collectors have gone the way of the Do-Do.  Young people don't care about rare Lionel Model trains or elusive mint Stamps.  The average age of this demographic of collectors keeps inching up and up. That is not good for their hobby.   

I think we are seeing this effect in some areas of the comic hobby already like in certain Golden Age titles (i.e. Star Spangled, Comic Cavalcade, etc.) Also, the "run" collector has seemed to be slowly disappearing from comic landscape recently.

But, the hobby remains to have a strong foundation in keys, pedigrees, high profile collector collections and certain cover specialties like Good Girl and horror. This should sustain for the long haul.

 

[RCheli]

Well, I am by no means a big-time dealer, but I'll tell you this. The money is not in the big books, at least as far as profit margin is concerned. For a book you have at $1000 on your wall, you may have paid $800 and will take $900. So while $100 is great and all, you make 12% on that book. (There are exceptions, of course.)

The stuff in the boxes, however, is your cash cow. Those books that cost anywhere from $1 to $30 (or whatever) may have cost you a fraction of that. So those $1 and $3 books are all profit. And if you leave a show selling a long-box or two per table of that stuff, you're doing pretty well.

And that $1000 book you sold for $900? Well, the next dealer will probably have $1050 on it and happily sell it for $975 (or see that his price point is too high and end up selling it for $900 or $850). 

[NoMan]

4 minutes ago, RCheli said:

Well, I am by no means a big-time dealer, but I'll tell you this. The money is not in the big books, at least as far as profit margin is concerned. For a book you have at $1000 on your wall, you may have paid $800 and will take $900. So while $100 is great and all, you make 12% on that book. (There are exceptions, of course.)

The stuff in the boxes, however, is your cash cow. Those books that cost anywhere from $1 to $30 (or whatever) may have cost you a fraction of that. So those $1 and $3 books are all profit. And if you leave a show selling a long-box or two per table of that stuff, you're doing pretty well.

And that $1000 book you sold for $900? Well, the next dealer will probably have $1050 on it and happily sell it for $975 (or see that his price point is too high and end up selling it for $900 or $850). 

.

Edited August 13, 2018 by NoMan

[G.A.tor]

The comic book collector buys as much the dealer , as the book. There is an inherent relationship that the best dealers cultivate. 

Metro, bob storms, greg Reece, Richie bedrock, harley, Ritter, etc etc all buy and sell the same books at about the same prices. What is different about them vs eBay and lessor successful sellers is that they are selling not only the book, but themselves. They are market supports, have their fingers on the pulse of their customer demands, and provide a quality book at a quality price with quality service. Wash, rinse, repeat is a by product of the market. Cream rises and dust settles!

[fett]

16 hours ago, Mercury Man said:

The biggest concern and health of comic values will be the 'Next' Generation.   Model Trains and Stamp Collectors have gone the way of the Do-Do.  Young people don't care about rare Lionel Model trains or elusive mint Stamps.  The average age of this demographic of collectors keeps inching up and up. That is not good for their hobby.  

It will be interesting to see what happens with print comics and our hobby.  I think some of the main keys will always be solid.  But look at what happens to a lot of the first appearance villains when the movies come out.  The books sell well, and quite a bit, then they come to earth.  Avengers #55 comes to mind.  Now that Thanos has had his moment, interested to see what happens with his first appearance prices.   Don't get me started on the variant books.  Look out beloooooow......

after Age of Ultron I didn't see any fans wearing Ultron shirts. I am seeing a ton of Thanos T-shirts-just Thanos on the shirt, no other Marvel character. 

[Shadow Images]

On 8/13/2018 at 5:51 AM, 1Cool said:

.  The biggest worry I see is the shear number of dealers/sellers/flippers keeps going up each years so the competition may make it tough for big dealers to get in enough books to keep making a living at it but so far things seem to be running smoothly for most the people I talk to.

This is the biggest problem in the collecting world today. There are fewer collectors and more "I'm going to make a million dollars" flippers. This is in most all hobbies today. People are not necessarily in it for the love of the hobby but some perceived notion that they are going to make a ton of money. The collecting market weather it is cars, toys,comics, etc. is not a replacement for a savings/retirement fund and the way society has become there is constant bubbles to burst in every investment.

Edited August 21, 2018 by Shadow Images

[october]

2 hours ago, RCheli said:

Well, I am by no means a big-time dealer, but I'll tell you this. The money is not in the big books, at least as far as profit margin is concerned. For a book you have at $1000 on your wall, you may have paid $800 and will take $900. So while $100 is great and all, you make 12% on that book. (There are exceptions, of course.)

The stuff in the boxes, however, is your cash cow. Those books that cost anywhere from $1 to $30 (or whatever) may have cost you a fraction of that. So those $1 and $3 books are all profit. And if you leave a show selling a long-box or two per table of that stuff, you're doing pretty well.

And that $1000 book you sold for $900? Well, the next dealer will probably have $1050 on it and happily sell it for $975 (or see that his price point is too high and end up selling it for $900 or $850). 

Making 20x or 30x on something you paid a dollar for is nice, but I'd still rather buy a book for $900 and sell for $1000. 

I don't fill my wallet with percentage points. $100>$30.

[Ken Aldred]

2 hours ago, fett said:

after Age of Ultron I didn't see any fans wearing Ultron shirts. I am seeing a ton of Thanos T-shirts-just Thanos on the shirt, no other Marvel character. 

The initial Thanos storyline hasn’t finished yet. We’re in a cliffhanger situation, only effectively halfway through it. Plus, the Mad Titan’s a much better character.

But, I digress from the thread’s topic, which is about money, not content.

Edited August 13, 2018 by Ken Aldred

[shadroch]

When you squeeze a lemon, it loses some juice and eventually runs dry. An AF 15 can change hands 100 times without losing its "juice".

[1Cool]

Why would anyone consider the current comic market in it's adolescent phase?  If late 60s and early 70s were the baby phase of comic book collecting (and dealers) then the 80s and early 90s would have to be the adolescent phase.  I'd say we are definitely squarely in the middle of the adult phase of comic book collecting & dealers.  There is still plenty of life left but if you surmise old age will kick in within the next 20 - 30 years then how could these be the teen years of the comic market?

[valiantman]

50 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

Why would anyone consider the current comic market in it's adolescent phase?  If late 60s and early 70s were the baby phase of comic book collecting (and dealers) then the 80s and early 90s would have to be the adolescent phase.  I'd say we are definitely squarely in the middle of the adult phase of comic book collecting & dealers.  There is still plenty of life left but if you surmise old age will kick in within the next 20 - 30 years then how could these be the teen years of the comic market?

It doesn't matter when the comic market started because the only people selling at the actual comic value for decades were professional dealers. Everyone else had to accept a significant discount by selling to those professional dealers.  Sure, anyone could buy books at the actual market value, but not just anyone could sell.  With Ebay and CGC, every owner of a legitimate key issue at a legitimate CGC grade could finally participate in the same selling market, with maybe 10% of a sale lost to the venue fees, rather than 20% to 95% of sales lost to the local dealer. The original post said the "adolescent" comment was 3 years ago, so that was 2015.  Ebay and CGC were just adolescent companies... and even early adopter Ebay and CGC non-professional comic sellers hadn't been involved more than a few years.

[FN-2199]

1 hour ago, 1Cool said:

Why would anyone consider the current comic market in it's adolescent phase?  If late 60s and early 70s were the baby phase of comic book collecting (and dealers) then the 80s and early 90s would have to be the adolescent phase.  I'd say we are definitely squarely in the middle of the adult phase of comic book collecting & dealers.  There is still plenty of life left but if you surmise old age will kick in within the next 20 - 30 years then how could these be the teen years of the comic market?

I believe International markets will heat up. Technology and more efficient supply chains will be created lowering the price of shipping which will open up new markets. Think 80s mail order => today's internet => next phase

How many Canadians complain about shipping and they are right across the border? Many are buying low grade + shipping when the same money in the U.S. buys high grade. What about the rest of the world? I get a decent amount of interest in my eBay store from South Americans until I tell them how much shipping is and my best customer is in Africa. 

[1Cool]

36 minutes ago, valiantman said:

It doesn't matter when the comic market started because the only people selling at the actual comic value for decades were professional dealers. Everyone else had to accept a significant discount by selling to those professional dealers.  Sure, anyone could buy books at the actual market value, but not just anyone could sell.  With Ebay and CGC, every owner of a legitimate key issue at a legitimate CGC grade could finally participate in the same selling market, with maybe 10% of a sale lost to the venue fees, rather than 20% to 95% of sales lost to the local dealer. The original post said the "adolescent" comment was 3 years ago, so that was 2015.  Ebay and CGC were just adolescent companies... and even early adopter Ebay and CGC non-professional comic sellers hadn't been involved more than a few years.

I guess the quote says Zurzolo was talking about comic prices which I guess is hard to quantify since who knows how high key book prices will go in the future.  I think you would be hard pressed to say the average non-key comic book is in its adolescence.

I would agree the age of the individual comic sellers is definitely still new but in terms of squeezing the lemon I don't see how having a thousand sellers helps or hurts the comic selling life cycle.  If i had to pick I would say the multitude of sellers hurts the life cycle since now supply is easily able to far outpace demand more so in then the old days.  From a buying / collector stand point we have never been in a better situation.

[1Cool]

1 minute ago, FN-2199 said:

I believe International markets will heat up. Technology and more efficient supply chains will be created lowering the price of shipping which will open up new markets. Think 80s mail order => today's internet => next phase

How many Canadians complain about shipping and they are right across the border? Many are buying low grade + shipping when the same money in the U.S. buys high grade. What about the rest of the world? I get a decent amount of interest in my eBay store from South Americans until I tell them how much shipping is and my best customer is in Africa. 

Interesting thought but i highly doubt the International market will develop into a juggernaut of comic book buyers.  They could develop cheap teleporters which would reduce shipping prices but $20 to ship a package across the world seems pretty cheap considering jet fuel cost and the man power necessary to deliver a package across the world.  I personally do not see International shipping charges going anywhere but up in the near future. 

I'm glad you do some good business with International buyers but I'd estimate I do about 10% of my sales to Canada and maybe 5% to other countries.  These numbers have been pretty steady over the last decade with a small uptick every time the Canadian dollar does well against the USD.