I was wrong. Modern variants vs. Key Issues 0

[Jaydogrules]

3 hours ago, Chuck Gower said:

7-9 years isn't enough time to establish it holding value.

7-9 years it's the same 100 people selling the book back and forth to each other.

Will it hold it's value when new collectors enter the market or will they not be interested because it's only power was its speculation amongst a small subset of collectors hellbent on convincing the world that its scarcity was the only thing it needed to make it valuable.

Lots of weird assumptions here.   Though I do see your disdain for variants and the variant market is firmly intact.  

-J.

 

[valiantman]

16 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

This is an interesting analysis.  

But hulk 181 is a top 5 book in the hobby. Wolverine 145 Nabisco is not even a top 50 variant.  

So let's do this with one of the top 10 variants like ASM 667, 678, Wolverine 1 Campbell/deadpool and/or UXM 510 partial sketch.  

-J.

There was a time that Wolverine 145 Nabisco was a Top 10 Variant in the hobby... when it was about 8 years old.  Now that it's 20 years old, it isn't a big deal.  

If you want me to do the same comparison with your Top 10 Variant list of books that are about 8 years old... then I guess we'll see in 2030 how you did.

[comicartfan]

One of the things that I didn't see mentioned here is emotion. When a book comes out and whether it's a variant or just a hot book, the majority of modern comic buyers are aware of it. There is the spike in interest and the book becomes difficult to obtain. What happens is that collectors start to get FOMO. They want what someone else has or better, what someone else "can't get". This is basic human thinking. I want what my buddy doesn't have, so I can show it to him....brag a little and basically feel a little better about myself. 

This doesn't last of course, as other have said. 

 

[mattn792]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

There was a time that Wolverine 145 Nabisco was a Top 10 Variant in the hobby... when it was about 8 years old.  Now that it's 20 years old, it isn't a big deal.  

If you want me to do the same comparison with your Top 10 Variant list of books that are about 8 years old... then I guess we'll see in 2030 how you did.

This.  I bought a 9.4 Hulk 181 back in May or June of this year.  I'd be willing to wager that had I instead used that money on an Uncanny 510 variant, when we fast forward to 2030 I'd be ready to walk in front of a bus for once again setting my money on fire with another stupid variant purchase.

Edited August 17, 2018 by mattn792
Hulk add!

[Jaydogrules]

21 minutes ago, valiantman said:

There was a time that Wolverine 145 Nabisco was a Top 10 Variant in the hobby... when it was about 8 years old.  Now that it's 20 years old, it isn't a big deal.  

If you want me to do the same comparison with your Top 10 Variant list of books that are about 8 years old... then I guess we'll see in 2030 how you did.

Moving the goal posts already, I see.

-J.

[valiantman]

38 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

There was a time that Wolverine 145 Nabisco was a Top 10 Variant in the hobby... when it was about 8 years old.  Now that it's 20 years old, it isn't a big deal.  

If you want me to do the same comparison with your Top 10 Variant list of books that are about 8 years old... then I guess we'll see in 2030 how you did.

Moving the goal posts already, I see.

-J.

I don't know what you want me to do.  Cherry-pick your best scenario?

OK.  The comparison was buying a Top 10 Variant in 2006 and comparing it to investing in a classic key issue instead.

Your Top Modern Variant list doesn't have many Top 10 Variants to use in 2006, so let's use Batman #608 RRP.

The 2006 price for a CGC 9.8 Batman #608 RRP was between $1,300 and $3,000.

Let's say you somehow bought two copies of CGC 9.8 Batman #608 RRP for $2,800 in 2006.

They would currently be worth $11,000.  That's identical to the worst-performing scenario posted earlier for investing in Hulk #181 in 2006, and far below the $28,000 that would be possible for a stack of CGC 4.0 Hulk #181 purchased in 2006 for the same $2,800 cost.

That's cherry-picking your best available data, and it's $11,000 (Batman #608 RRP) vs. $28,000 (Hulk #181).

[bababooey]

[1Cool]

Wow - we have taken a huge turn from the OP's question.  Does anyone think the high prices realized by the modern variant market caused people to see keys as a deal which is causing the huge increases?  I don't think so because so few comic collectors (especially older ones) know anything about the modern variant market so the prices in that section of the market don't really faze the majority.  I would agree the money being made from the variant craze could be transitioning to older keys if the tarnish is wearing off of those books.  I only put my toe in that section of the pool so I have no idea if money is flowing out of it.  But I do not think people are saying "Wow - that variant sold for $2,000 so FF 48 have got to be $2,000 since they are way cooler".  Two different supply and demand curves since the collectors seem to be seperate.

[BlowUpTheMoon]

2 hours ago, Aweandlorder said:

One could use that as an example about different eras. Not just keys vs variants. For example it always baffled me that someone would pay 10k+ for a WD 1 9.9 when you could get a mid grade X-Men 1 for that money. 

Obviously you're not a student of Boston Corbett's School of Thought.

[Jaydogrules]

15 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I don't know what you want me to do.  Cherry-pick your best scenario?

OK.  The comparison was buying a Top 10 Variant in 2006 and comparing it to investing in a classic key issue instead.

Your Top Modern Variant list doesn't have many Top 10 Variants to use in 2006, so let's use Batman #608 RRP.

The 2006 price for a CGC 9.8 Batman #608 RRP was between $1,300 and $3,000.

Let's say you somehow bought two copies of CGC 9.8 Batman #608 RRP for $2,800 in 2006.

They would currently be worth $11,000.  That's identical to the worst-performing scenario posted earlier for investing in Hulk #181 in 2006, and far below the $28,000 that would be possible for a stack of CGC 4.0 Hulk #181 purchased in 2006 for the same $2,800 cost.

That's cherry-picking your best available data, and it's $11,000 (Batman #608 RRP) vs. $28,000 (Hulk #181).

You're saying I'm "cherry picking" yet you're cherry picking hulk 181- a book that has literally tripled in value in some grades over the last two months. 

And why are you now using 2006 as a year for a point of comparison? What's special about that year? Variants weren't anywhere near as big then as they are now. Incentive variants were barely even being introduced then. 

So sorry, you haven't actually cherry picked "the best available data".  That would be ASM 667, 678, UXM 510, etc- The ones that I already mentioned that you conveniently ignored because they evidently don't comport to the arbitrary year of 2006 that you suddenly want to use.  So if you're going to cherry pick one of, if not "the" hottest book of the year that's up 300% in two months, (Hulk 181) to make a point about vintage books, how about I get to pick the best representative example from the top modern variants for the counterpoint?  I pick ASM 667 Dell'otto (anyone surprised? lol)  How would $2800 spent in let's say, 2012 on that book look today (that might have gotten you four copies back then if you could have found them)? 

-J. 

[mattn792]

10 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

You're saying I'm "cherry picking" yet you're cherry picking hulk 181- a book that has literally tripled in value in some grades over the last two months. 

And why are you now using 2006 as a year for a point of comparison? What's special about that year? 

Ummm, because I originally brought it up when recounting a regrettable purchase, and we ran with it from there. You’re getting bent out of shape over nothing.

[Jaydogrules]

20 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

Ummm, because I originally brought it up when recounting a regrettable purchase, and we ran with it from there. You’re getting bent out of shape over nothing.

Yes I am aware why he used it for your example.  

What I don't know is why he continued to use it for mine.  

-J.

[valiantman]

37 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

 I pick ASM 667 Dell'otto (anyone surprised? lol)  How would $2800 spent in let's say, 2012 on that book look today (that might have gotten you four copies back then if you could have found them)? 

-J. 

But you couldn't have found them.  Zero graded copies sold in 2012.  We're talking about your own MOST VALUABLE MODERN VARIANTS topic, which you started in April 2016.

So, let's see, the very next sale of ASM #667 Dell'Otto after you started that topic was $4,000 for a CGC 9.6.

Since that book is Spider-man, let's instead put $4,000 into Amazing Spider-Man #1 in April 2016 (because $4,000 wouldn't buy any AF #15 in 2016). 

$4,000 spent in April 2016 for Spider-man #1:

Scenario A) One copy of CGC 4.0 Amazing Spider-man #1

Scenario B) Two copies of CGC 1.5 Amazing Spider-man #1

Scenario C) Two copies of CGC 1.0 and one CGC 0.5 Amazing Spider-man #1

All of these are the 2nd best Spider-man key, since Amazing Fantasy #15 wasn't available for $4,000.

ASM #667 Dell'Otto variant, CGC 9.6, purchased for $4,000 in 2016 would be worth $8,000 now (would it?  The last sale was $8,000 but the 9.8 sold for $10,000 and 9.6 isn't usually 80% of 9.8... it's usually 50%).

Scenario A) would be worth $7,600

Scenario B) would be worth $8,200

Scenario C) would be worth $8,300

So, the short-term result of the absolute best modern variant being discussed in April 2016 is equal to investing in the 2nd best classic Spider-man issue at the same time, even though ASM #1 had no 50-page cheerleading CGC Board topic for those two years. 

The long-term result is to-be-determined.

[Jaydogrules]

4 hours ago, valiantman said:

But you couldn't have found them.  Zero graded copies sold in 2012.  We're talking about your own MOST VALUABLE MODERN VARIANTS topic, which you started in April 2016.

So, let's see, the very next sale of ASM #667 Dell'Otto after you started that topic was $4,000 for a CGC 9.6.

Since that book is Spider-man, let's instead put $4,000 into Amazing Spider-Man #1 in April 2016 (because $4,000 wouldn't buy any AF #15 in 2016). 

$4,000 spent in April 2016 for Spider-man #1:

Scenario A) One copy of CGC 4.0 Amazing Spider-man #1

Scenario B) Two copies of CGC 1.5 Amazing Spider-man #1

Scenario C) Two copies of CGC 1.0 and one CGC 0.5 Amazing Spider-man #1

All of these are the 2nd best Spider-man key, since Amazing Fantasy #15 wasn't available for $4,000.

ASM #667 Dell'Otto variant, CGC 9.6, purchased for $4,000 in 2016 would be worth $8,000 now (would it?  The last sale was $8,000 but the 9.8 sold for $10,000 and 9.6 isn't usually 80% of 9.8... it's usually 50%).

Scenario A) would be worth $7,600

Scenario B) would be worth $8,200

Scenario C) would be worth $8,300

So, the short-term result of the absolute best modern variant being discussed in April 2016 is equal to investing in the 2nd best classic Spider-man issue at the same time, even though ASM #1 had no 50-page cheerleading CGC Board topic for those two years. 

The long-term result is to-be-determined.

So now we are arbitrarily using the date I stated a thread about 12 different variants as the point of reference?  Why? The variants were selling very well long before I started the thread. Hence why I started the thread.  So your characterization of the thread as "cheerleading" is disingenuous.  Plus, how many Spider-man "cheerleading" threads are there in the SA forum ?  I'll give you a hint- a lot.  Including a dedicated AF 15 and Spider-Man 1 appreciation threads. Maybe just maybe Spider-Man is really, really popularity.  And maybe, just maybe that's why people are waiting to spend top dollar on one of his rarest and hardest to find issues. Maybe ?

So if you don't want to start the clock at 2012 and instead start it at 2016 for the analysis, that's fine.  But there was another sale of a 9.6 ASM 667 in April 2016 for $3550 (the $4,000 copy you're talking about sold in June).  So let's use that, and $3,550 for the baseline (and still use the later $8,000 sale that you used as the "B" sale).

Using something similar to your scenarios that would have gotten an:

A) 3.5 copy of ASM 1, that would be worth a high of $7200 now (-$800 compared to the 667)

B) Two 1.0 copies of ASM 1, that would be worth a combined $6,450 now (-$1,550 compared to the 667)

C) Three 0.5 copies of ASM 1 that would be worth a combined $7,050 now (-$950 compared to the 667).

So in short, when you take your finger off the scale, one 9.6 copy of the 667 would have easily outperformed the second most historically important book of Marvel's most popular character and one of the top books of the SA (even multiple low grade copies of it).

Guess what- the 678 and UXM 510 (and likely Wolverine 1 Deadpool and a few others from the most valuable modern variant list) would have also outperformed as well, in terms of percentage gains, if not outright dollars and cents especially if you start the analysis period at 2012.

-J.

Edited August 17, 2018 by Jaydogrules

[valiantman]

Okeydoke.  We've both given our examples.  I think people can judge for themselves.

[paul747]

6 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

So now we are arbitrarily using the date I stated a thread about 12 different variants as the point of reference?  Why? The variants were selling very well long before I started the thread. Hence why I started the thread.  So your characterization of the thread as "cheerleading" is disingenuous.  Plus, how many Spider-man "cheerleading" threads are there in the SA forum ?  I'll give you a hint- a lot.  Including a dedicated AF 15 and Spider-Man 1 appreciation threads. Maybe just maybe Spider-Man is really, really popularity.  And maybe, just maybe that's why people are waiting to spend top dollar on one of his rarest and hardest to find issues. Maybe ?

So if you don't want to start the clock at 2012 and instead start it at 2016 for the analysis, that's fine.  But there was another sale of a 9.6 ASM 667 in April 2016 for $3550 (the $4,000 copy you're talking about sold in June).  So let's use that, and $3,550 for the baseline (and still use the later $8,000 sale that you used as the "B" sale).

Using something similar to your scenarios that would have gotten an:

A) 3.5 copy of ASM 1, that would be worth a high of $7200 now (-$800 compared to the 667)

B) Two 1.0 copies of ASM 1, that would be worth a combined $6,450 now (-$1,550 compared to the 667)

C) Three 0.5 copies of ASM 1 that would be worth a combined $7,050 now (-$950 compared to the 667).

So in short, when you take your finger off the scale, one 9.6 copy of the 667 would have easily outperformed the second most historically important book of Marvel's most popular character and one of the top books of the SA (even multiple low grade copies of it).

Guess what- the 678 and UXM 510 (and likely Wolverine 1 Deadpool and a few others from the most valuable modern variant list) would have also outperformed as well, in terms of percentage gains, if not outright dollars and cents especially if you start the analysis period at 2012.

-J.

J

Honestly man you have a CAP #1, your moderns will never ever touch that book! If i had a CAP #1 i would never argue on the boards, heck if I had a CAP #1 I would not even argue with the wife.

[Spawn1709]

I like modern variants! I wouldn't spend that much on one though. Anything over $5,000 is a bit too much for me. I have a bunch of modern variants that all cost in the hundreds of dollars.

Edited August 18, 2018 by Spawn1709

[justafan]

1 hour ago, paul747 said:

J

Honestly man you have a CAP #1, your moderns will never ever touch that book! If i had a CAP #1 i would never argue on the boards, heck if I had a CAP #1 I would not even argue with the wife.

Talk about a comic that appreciated in value over the last 15 years.  A CGC 6.5 Cap #1 went from $16k in 2003 to $175k in 2018.  Low to mid grade will tend to have higher appreciation because the higher end books are more scarce and so change hands less frequent, have a smaller market, but most importantly: they have most of their valuation already in the price.  The lower and mid grades appeal to a larger market, have more turnover which can consistently grow GPA prices, and since they tend to be more affordable can be considered to be undervalued as higher grades move out of reach.

J, ASM 667 is an anomaly.  It isn't the rule, it is the exception and unfortunately there just aren't a whole lot of them floating around.  If you could obtain 28 copies of 667 and release them once every 6 months you would still see appreciation in prices since the ASM completist market easily outnumbers the available quantity + 28 more.  Now if we are truly going to compare apples to apples, let's say an equal number of ASM 667's entered the market as there are hulk 181's.  There are 10,772 graded copies of IH 181 on the census (2800+ in 9.0 or better).  If you brought 10,772 copies of ASM 667 to market slowly but all in one year, you would begin to see price declines.  Why?  because the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) quotient would decrease.  Once folks realize another will be available soon, you'll see the prices begin to drop by at least 1-2k in the first few months.  FOMO (never seeing being able to buy another copy) is what's behind collectors who own them not wanting to sell them in any grade and for those that do can justify super high prices.  IH 181 isn't rare just like AF15's aren't rare.  They just have a much larger market. 

AF15 market includes - All spidey collectors  + investors + dealers

IH 181 market includes - All Hulk collectors + All Wolverine Collectors + investors + dealers

ASM 667 market includes - Spidey Completists (small fraction of Spidey collectors) + Dell'Otto Art collectors (small fraction of comic fans) + investors + dealers

You can see where the market for AF15 or IH181 seriously outweighs the market for ASM667 collectors which is why those less scarce books do so well.   

Now I don't think we'll ever see 10k ASM 667 copies hit the market so that book is safe as a potential investment long term but only so long as spidey modern completists exceed the number of available copies just like AF15 and IH 181 books will continue to be great investments so long as the spidey, hulk, and wolverine fans continue to grow and exceed the number of available copies for sale.

I do think that we are about to see what happened with the ASM 667 variant occur soon and that's what's propping up the variant market.  FOMO.  After ASM 797, 800, double-digit variants + multiple 1:1000 variants, many modern completists and variant spidey collectors are getting exhausted and we're seeing extreme saturation.  I have an entire long box full of all the 796-800 variants.  It's not just a financial issue but will soon be a space issue.  At this rate, I'll need 1 long box for every 2-3 issues.  If I keep going to ASM 1000 I'll need to rent a storage unit to house all my books.  So it's possible one of the variants in the next several issues will be under-ordered due to variant saturation and that will become the next ASM 667 but it could take a while since comic shops like Unknown, ComicXposure, ComicMint, etc are flush with cash from the ASM and Venom variants.  In effect, thosse comic shps are now the distributors.  Marvel publishes the comic, Diamond takes the orders, and Comic Shops now pay hot artitsts to provide a limited number cover and they set the price. 

So what's my point: yeah, SA/BA comics are starting to look a lot more attractive even at their GPA climbing prices over multitudes of modern variants that are become too numerous to be considered rare even for those artificially limited to 600 copies which still exceed the total graded ASM 667 copies. 

 

[jsilverjanet]

1 hour ago, paul747 said:

J

Honestly man you have a CAP #1, your moderns will never ever touch that book! If i had a CAP #1 i would never argue on the boards, heck if I had a CAP #1 I would not even argue with the wife.

the cover is ugly compared to the brilliant work of the modern Da Vinci, aka Dell Otto

[paul747]

9 hours ago, jsilverjanet said:

the cover is ugly compared to the brilliant work of the modern Da Vinci, aka Dell Otto

Dell Otto does have a great style, in my opinion but his "hot" will settle in, and he is no different that when Ross or other modern greats got hot, it will settle and already has. As for that Cap #1 Its Pretty as XXXX!! Cap #1-7 are just unreal.

Edited August 18, 2018 by paul747