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I was wrong. Modern variants vs. Key Issues
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66 posts in this topic

I believed that these modern variants selling for $1,000+ would have to fall because they were so expensive compared to older key issues.  I was wrong.  Key issues were too cheap relative to the prices of modern variants.

AF #15, Hulk #181, ASM #300, anything that's 25+ years old, key, and classic, has been on fire.  What changed?  Nothing old.  It was the new that changed.  New collectors who buy new comics for $1,000+.  They don't blink buying keys for the same prices... why would they?  Keys are a bargain.

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The bubble may still burst on modern variants, and the recent increases in prices for key issues might not be sustained, but it's clear that the bubble didn't burst quickly on modern variants... and I would be very surprised if the new high prices for 25+ year old keys fall very far.  The "new market" values both and it is currently finding the balance between variants and keys at a much higher price level than most expected.

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So you are saying the recent upswing in key books is due to the modern variant market raising all ships so to speak?  I do agree most of the new hot cover variant buyers seem to be younger guys (under 30) but I'm not sure they are the ones suddenly buying up all the keys at huge price jumps.  I think the key (and especially the Golden Age keys) are seeing a jump because collectors are dropping new comics in droves and putting all this typically spent money into keys.  If a guy my age suddenly stops spending $100 a month on new books he will quickly have a nice nest egg set aside for that IH 181 he always wanted - who cares about the price.  All the money in the market is now (well maybe 90%) concentrated on a select few mega keys and prices are jumping with the demand.  New, young buyers may be adding a bit of fuel to the fire but I still see most keys going to the 40 - 60 year old guys compared to the young gun 25 year olds.

Edited by 1Cool
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6 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

So you are saying the recent upswing in key books is due to the modern variant market raising all ships so to speak?  I do agree most of the new hot cover variant buyers seem to be younger guys (under 30) but I'm not sure they are the ones suddenly buying up all the keys at huge price jumps.  I think the key (and especially the Golden Age keys) are seeing a jump because collectors are dropping new comics in droves and putting all this typically spent money into keys.  If a guy my age suddenly stops spending $100 a month on new books he will quickly have a nice nest egg set aside for that IH 181 he always wanted - who cares about the price.  All the money in the market is now (well maybe 90%) concentrated on a select few mega keys and prices are jumping with the demand.  New, young buyers may be adding a bit of fuel to the fire but I still see most keys going to the 40 - 60 year old guys compared to the young gun 25 year olds.

My belief that the sudden increases in prices for decades-old key issues are due to something "new", rather than something that's been happening for a while.  I attributed that to "new collectors for old books" but you're saying it's "new behavior for old collectors".

Interesting... hm

I do believe that collectors even considering paying $1,000+ for a modern Wolverine who see they could get the 44-year-old first full appearance and classic cover Hulk #181 for under $1,000 was a disparity in the market.  It made the modern Wolverine too expensive or the Hulk #181 too cheap.  Since we haven't seen the modern Wolverine variant take a dive below $1,000+, it shouldn't be surprising that pretty much ANY copy of Hulk #181 is rising higher than that.

 

 

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4 hours ago, valiantman said:

My belief that the sudden increases in prices for decades-old key issues are due to something "new", rather than something that's been happening for a while.  I attributed that to "new collectors for old books" but you're saying it's "new behavior for old collectors".

Interesting... hm

I do believe that collectors even considering paying $1,000+ for a modern Wolverine who see they could get the 44-year-old first full appearance and classic cover Hulk #181 for under $1,000 was a disparity in the market.  It made the modern Wolverine too expensive or the Hulk #181 too cheap.  Since we haven't seen the modern Wolverine variant take a dive below $1,000+, it shouldn't be surprising that pretty much ANY copy of Hulk #181 is rising higher than that.

 

 

In my (rife with stupid) youth, I paid close to $3 grand for a 9.8 copy of the Wolverine 145 Nabisco variant (in '06 I believe).  And in hindsight, back in '06, how many 181s could I have potentially bought instead with that money?  Or held onto the cash for a bit longer and put it to better use in the stock market?  Or...yeah, I basically set that money on fire.  Lessons learned the hard way sometimes.  :frustrated:

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25 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

In my (rife with stupid) youth, I paid close to $3 grand for a 9.8 copy of the Wolverine 145 Nabisco variant (in '06 I believe).  And in hindsight, back in '06, how many 181s could I have potentially bought instead with that money?  Or held onto the cash for a bit longer and put it to better use in the stock market?  Or...yeah, I basically set that money on fire.  Lessons learned the hard way sometimes.  :frustrated:

Exactly. Similar situation... 

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1 minute ago, mattn792 said:

@valiantman -- I knew I wouldn't like the answer to my question...time for some doh!

I guess it gets worse... sorry... the $2,800 investment in Wolverine #145 Nabisco variant, assuming it was a CGC 9.8, has a most recent sale of $1,250. :sorry:

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1 minute ago, valiantman said:

I guess it gets worse... sorry... the $2,800 investment in Wolverine #145 Nabisco variant, assuming it was a CGC 9.8, has a most recent sale of $1,250. :sorry:

Yeah, I definitely found that out when I dumped it.  If there's ANY silver lining to be had...I bought a 9.6 copy for $200 back in 2013, and it's now an SS 9.8.

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8 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

Yeah, I definitely found that out when I dumped it.  If there's ANY silver lining to be had...I bought a 9.6 copy for $200 back in 2013, and it's now an SS 9.8.

Hypothetical question since you think you messed up in 2006...

In 2018, if you were offered a stack of 28 copies of CGC 9.8 Wolverine 145 Nabisco variant or a stack of 14 copies of CGC 4.0 Hulk #181, which would you pick (and why)? hm

(Yes, there are infinite third options that I'm sure everyone is trying to imagine they would prefer instead, but I'm asking about just these two.)

Edited by valiantman
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5 hours ago, valiantman said:

My belief that the sudden increases in prices for decades-old key issues are due to something "new", rather than something that's been happening for a while.  I attributed that to "new collectors for old books" but you're saying it's "new behavior for old collectors".

Interesting... hm

I do believe that collectors even considering paying $1,000+ for a modern Wolverine who see they could get the 44-year-old first full appearance and classic cover Hulk #181 for under $1,000 was a disparity in the market.  It made the modern Wolverine too expensive or the Hulk #181 too cheap.  Since we haven't seen the modern Wolverine variant take a dive below $1,000+, it shouldn't be surprising that pretty much ANY copy of Hulk #181 is rising higher than that.

 

 

I would fit in the old collector new habit.  late 30s and no longer have space for new books all the time.  All those sold books and saved cash has gone towards expensive keys.  Non of if left the hobby.

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38 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Good example.  I was specifically thinking of the Wolverine #1 (2010) Campbell variant, but yours is an earlier example of the same concept.

Your question may have been rhetorical, but let's use GPA and figure it out.

" in hindsight, back in '06, how many 181s could I have potentially bought instead with that money?" ("close to $3 grand")

Let's call it $2,800, since you said "close to $3 grand".

In 2006:

CGC 9.4 Hulk #181 was between $1,800 and $2,800, so let's say $2,300 = today it would be $8,000

CGC 9.0 Hulk #181 was between $740 and $1,275, so let's say $1,000 = today it would be $5,200

CGC 8.0 Hulk #181 was between $400 and $847, so let's say $625 = today it would be $4,200

CGC 6.0 Hulk #181 was between $223 and $400, so let's say $320 = today it would be $2,600

CGC 4.0 Hulk #181 was between $178 and $225, so let's say $200 = today it would be $2,000

CGC 2.0 Hulk #181 was between $130 and $170, so let's say $150 = today it would be $1,200

 

For $2,820 you could have purchased a 9.4, 6.0, and 4.0, so the total would be $12,600

For $2,800 you could have purchased 2 at 9.0 and 4 at 4.0, so the total would be $18,400

For $2,800 you could have purchased 14 copies at 4.0, so the total would be $28,000

Even though no copies of CGC 9.6 Hulk #181 sold under $3,550 in 2006, let's say you were able to get one for $2,800.  It would be worth $11,000.

 

Did everyone expect the correct answer for investing in Hulk #181 slabs in 2006 to be buying as many 4.0 as possible? hm

Post is only 33 minutes old and Hulk 181 prices are already out of date lol.  Man this book is hot.  If you have a lead on 9.0 for 5k let me know.

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2 minutes ago, slg343 said:

I would fit in the old collector new habit.  late 30s and no longer have space for new books all the time.  All those sold books and saved cash has gone towards expensive keys.  Non of if left the hobby.

Thanks for the comment... when you sold all your books, were you selling modern variants ($100+) or selling non-key issues of older books... or just runs of commons... or what? hm

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1 minute ago, slg343 said:

Post is only 33 minutes old and Hulk 181 prices are already out of date lol.  Man this book is hot.  If you have a lead on 9.0 for 5k let me know.

I used the last 3 sales, since the most recent sale could be an anomaly... but it's true... some of those most recent sales were weeks ago.

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Just now, valiantman said:

Thanks for the comment... when you sold all your books, were you selling modern variants ($100+) or selling non-key issues of older books... or just runs of commons... or what? hm

Sold both a lot of expenses variants from 2006-2009 range and I absolutely stopped buying those $100-$300 variants and used that money elsewhere.  I believe it is even worse now with variants dropping.  I am not a dealer buy I regularly pick up lots of say 50 books 1:1000 1:2000 type variants for a fraction of initial sell price and sell them for profit but no where near day one release prices ( I don't count this as collecting because I buy them solely to flip). 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Hypothetical question since you think you messed up in 2006...

In 2018, if you were offered a stack of 28 copies of CGC 9.8 Wolverine 145 Nabisco variant or a stack of 14 copies of CGC 4.0 Hulk #181, which would you pick (and why)? hm

(Yes, there are infinite third options that I'm sure everyone is trying to imagine they would prefer instead, but I'm asking about just these two.)

Well the initial obvious reaction is "181 homie!"  But with this particular issue, there actually is more to the story to consider since its not just any old modern.  Scarcity comes into play with the 145 Nabisco because no one is really sure how many of them are out there, or what condition they're in (the mail away 102.5 is even worse in this regard). 

With that said, I'd still have to say the 181s.  While demand for those may cool off somewhat compared to what we're seeing now, it still commands its own market, whereas the market on the 145 has never recovered to the initial hysteria levels it experienced.  And is there really a catalyst that is going to reinvigorate Wolverine 145 mania?  I suppose if they ever put Apocalypse: The 12 into movie or Netflix series form, but that's about it. 

So, 145 may be a key for the 1988 set and the dedicated Wolverine collector, but 181 is a key, period.  Many say THE key of the Bronze Age.  Investing in 145s would be like trying to time the stock market, investing in 181s would be akin to putting your money in an S&P 500 fund -- its going to appreciate over time, and if its value ever hits zero, then the comic market itself has collapsed.

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8 minutes ago, slg343 said:

Sold both a lot of expenses variants from 2006-2009 range and I absolutely stopped buying those $100-$300 variants and used that money elsewhere.  I believe it is even worse now with variants dropping.  I am not a dealer buy I regularly pick up lots of say 50 books 1:1000 1:2000 type variants for a fraction of initial sell price and sell them for profit but no where near day one release prices ( I don't count this as collecting because I buy them solely to flip). 

I realize we are only two data points, but you're in your late 30s converting your collection to keys.  I'm in my early 40s, but I started buying some of the 1960s keys a few years ago in mid-grade, about the same time you did.  Since then, I have purchased more books from pre-WWII (pre-1942) in the past few months than I did in 20 years.   Why am I suddenly buying pre-WWII?  Because I literally had no idea that nice-looking (low/mid grade) complete copies of 1940 issues of Action Comics were under $1,000.  That blows my mind.  I must have assumed they were far beyond that kind of price when I started collecting in the 1990s.  We're talking about books that survived the paper drives of the war and survived an additional 20+ years before Spider-Man arrived.  That's crazy that there's a modern variant that's $5,000+ and Action Comics #twentysomething is $500.  I'm putting my money where my mouth is. :cloud9:

Edited by valiantman
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3 minutes ago, mattn792 said:
27 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Hypothetical question since you think you messed up in 2006...

In 2018, if you were offered a stack of 28 copies of CGC 9.8 Wolverine 145 Nabisco variant or a stack of 14 copies of CGC 4.0 Hulk #181, which would you pick (and why)? hm

(Yes, there are infinite third options that I'm sure everyone is trying to imagine they would prefer instead, but I'm asking about just these two.)

Well the initial obvious reaction is "181 homie!"  But with this particular issue, there actually is more to the story to consider since its not just any old modern.  Scarcity comes into play with the 145 Nabisco because no one is really sure how many of them are out there, or what condition they're in (the mail away 102.5 is even worse in this regard). 

With that said, I'd still have to say the 181s.  While demand for those may cool off somewhat compared to what we're seeing now, it still commands its own market, whereas the market on the 145 has never recovered to the initial hysteria levels it experienced.  And is there really a catalyst that is going to reinvigorate Wolverine 145 mania?  I suppose if they ever put Apocalypse: The 12 into movie or Netflix series form, but that's about it. 

So, 145 may be a key for the 1988 set and the dedicated Wolverine collector, but 181 is a key, period.  Many say THE key of the Bronze Age.  Investing in 145s would be like trying to time the stock market, investing in 181s would be akin to putting your money in an S&P 500 fund -- its going to appreciate over time, and if its value ever hits zero, then the comic market itself has collapsed.

Thanks for answering.  We haven't seen a similar problem with other modern variants that sold/sell for $1,000+, but the statement that you made is interesting:  "is there a catalyst that is going to reinvigorate Wolverine 145 mania?"

I think it's interesting that there are modern variants above $5,000 now... and they either have to keep going up forever or stall at some point.  At that time, when someone is trying to sell a $5,000+ modern variant book without finding buyers... will we ask the same question?  "is there a catalyst that is going to reinvigorate modern variant mania?"

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1 minute ago, valiantman said:

Thanks for answering.  We haven't seen a similar problem with other modern variants that sold/sell for $1,000+, but the statement that you made is interesting:  "is there a catalyst that is going to reinvigorate Wolverine 145 mania?"

I think it's interesting that there are modern variants above $5,000 now... and they either have to keep going up forever or stall at some point.  At that time, when someone is trying to sell a $5,000+ modern variant book without finding buyers... will we ask the same question?  "is there a catalyst that is going to reinvigorate modern variant mania?"

I don't see how we don't ask that question.  And expanding on the point, what is it that is really driving demand now?  Scarcity of the books (1:1000, 1:10000, etc)?  FOMO?  Completionism?  I honestly don't know the answer to that.

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