CGC census is high, but there aren't enough keys 5 5

[valiantman]

I think we can all agree that the demand exceeds supply for books like Action Comics #1 or Detective Comics #27, and we can see that the CGC Census is hundreds of times higher for books like Hulk #181 and Amazing Spider-man #300... so we say those books are plentiful.  There are under 20,000 copies of Amazing Spider-man #300 on the CGC census, after almost 20 years.  On one hand, it's everywhere... it's easy to find.  On the other hand, only 20,000 people can own one.  Are there more than 20,000 people who want one?  Then there aren't enough.  Are there more than 10,000 people who want to own a Hulk #181 slab?  There aren't enough.  More will be graded for sure, but what if there are 20,000 people who want a copy?  That could take another 20 years of slabbing.

Meanwhile, Gemstone sells about 30,000 to 50,000 copies of the Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide each year.  We don't know how many collectors there are, but people who are willing to pay $20+ for a price guide are likely to be interested in owning key issues eventually... since they obviously own or collect something.  A million people go to comic conventions.  Tens of millions go to comic movies.  400,000+ copies of the latest issue of Batman sold last month.  Fewer than 20,000 can own a CGC slab for ANY comic book because there isn't a book with 20,000 on the CGC Census.  Recent price increases almost across the board for key issues are a reflection of something that is more than a handful of new collectors buying. 

The fact that only a hundred people can own Action Comics #1 or Detective #27, and thousands of people have absolutely given up on ever owning a copy.. hasn't caused the prices to fall. They've skyrocketed. People may give up on ever owning a copy of Amazing Fantasy #15 or even Hulk #181, and those who are buying now aren't expecting them to be cheaper in the future.  Do more than 20,000 people want to own a CGC slab for Amazing Spider-man #300?  That's fewer than 10 copies per U.S. county, ignoring that we know there are thousands of slabs outside the U.S.  I think that we're going to run out of slabs for every key... if we haven't already.  The gap between the prices for the first appearances of major characters and the prices of every other comic book is going to widen even more.  Even if there are always copies available on Ebay, even if there are tens of thousands on the CGC census, even if collectors can get raw copies anywhere.  It won't be enough.  Not for the major characters... maybe not even for second tier characters.  It will be more than just Superman and Batman first appearances that can't be afforded.  It will be Wonder Woman, Captain America, Spider-man, Hulk, Iron Man, Thor, Wolverine, Flash, Supergirl, Uncle Scrooge, Venom, Deadpool... if everyone, everywhere, knows that comic book character, then it will not be possible to affordably own the first appearance.  We're going to see 20 or 30 books from 1938 to 1991 skyrocket... and we'll be wishing we had bought them like shares of Apple stock 15 years ago, rather than just having "one for the collection" or zero copies because "it's still on my want list".

Edited August 17, 2018 by valiantman

[valiantman]

2 minutes ago, bababooey said:

Too many words? 

OK, then just read this:

"It will be more than just Superman and Batman first appearances that can't be afforded.  It will be Wonder Woman, Captain America, Spider-man, Hulk, Iron Man, Thor, Wolverine, Flash, Supergirl, Uncle Scrooge, Venom, Deadpool... if everyone, everywhere, knows that comic book character, then it will not be possible to affordably own the first appearance.  We're going to see 20 or 30 books from 1938 to 1991 skyrocket... and we'll be wishing we had bought them like shares of Apple stock 15 years ago, rather than just having "one for the collection" or zero copies because "it's still on my want list"."

[Jeffro.]

Too slow baba.  

[bababooey]

1 minute ago, valiantman said:

Too many words? 

No, I read it but deleted the gif because it wasn't animating.

[bababooey]

1 minute ago, Jerkfro said:

Too slow baba.  

 

[valiantman]

2 minutes ago, bababooey said:

4 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Too many words? 

No, I read it but deleted the gif because it wasn't animating.

Gotcha... but I'm sure it was too many words for someone. 

[valiantman]

Here's the short, short version:

 

Always buy whatever comics you like, but if you want to invest... ask an 8-year-old and an 88-year-old who a comic book character is.  If they BOTH know... then there will soon be a time that the first appearance will be unaffordable, even if the CGC Census currently appears to be "overflowing".  Invest in the ones you can still afford.

[BlowUpTheMoon]

 

12 minutes ago, valiantman said:

  9 minutes ago, bababooey said:

9 minutes ago, bababooey said:

No, I read it but deleted the gif because it wasn't animating.

[bababooey]

Thanks BUTM.

[RockMyAmadeus]

The census isn't the only thing high around here...

[RockMyAmadeus]

Yeah, thanks buttem.

[valiantman]

11 minutes ago, BlowUpTheMoon said:

 

It's funny because compared to my normal posts, there aren't many numbers.  There's not even a single comic book dollar amount and I normally use several. 

Edited August 17, 2018 by valiantman

[Not A Clone]

I see what you're saying. I like numbers too. The unknown factor is how many copies are out there that are in collector's hands that won't be graded. I know several collector's that won't slab anything. So we can eliminate these types from pursuing one of the slabs. 

[comicwiz]

While the census tells an interesting story (thanks for the analysis @valiantman) it really only plays a part in this dynamic of understanding what drives demand, and conversely, values to rise.

IMHO, syndication and the silver screen are inextricably linked to the success of a character, and consumers gravitating to wanting to own their origin issue. This may not have as direct a correlation with books like Action Comics #1 and Detective Comics #27 - there's just not enough copies out there to suitably meet the demand, even if it's a small pool of buyers at that value threshold.

There's also some funny stuff going on with census numbers unfortunately, and I can't see us just using a fixed number like 1% as a statistical control to offset CPR because the monetizing action on a particular issue ebbs and flows based on how hot that character becomes after a ----------script, sequel or new movie is announced. I'd further speculate that books like Hulk 181 have been CPR'd continously for at least a decade, and the percentage of resubs would probably be higher than on a book like Hulk 271.

Then if we break it out to copies in competing company's slabs, the divisive culture competition in grading caused, and just the usual suspects that cause people to feel disenfranchised, or just prefering to pursue raw books, the supply factor is hard to parse out as clearly as the supply/demand scenario for pinnacle keys like Action 1 and Tec 27.

It's funny, the one thing you did say that hit home was this:

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

We're going to see 20 or 30 books from 1938 to 1991 skyrocket

I say it's funny because in other hobbies, I sometimes wonder how they are able to sustain so much interest without having even a handful of full-time dealers or dedicated auction houses to allow collectors to be able to grow and build their collections. And here in our comic hobby, we very easily have the most full-time comic dealers, the most auction and consignment sites, and a staggeringly consistent streak of successful event auctions with new record sale benchmarks year after year. I already have seen the kind of debasing you talk about, where the inquiries a dealer gets are the same 10 or 12 books everyone else wants. I'd say I started really noticing this after the first Avengers movie (2012), so 6 or so later, we haven't really seen a thinning out we'd expect, because lets face it, it's difficult to justify the overhead in operating a brick and mortar and even virtual dealer sites when people are only after 20-30 books.

The hobby continues to defy logic - big collections continue to get absorbed, even though "run collecting" is supposed to be dead. Key issues continue to climb in value, whether or not there are 2000 or more copies on the census. People aren't shying away because of the story the census tells - if anything, it's causing them to think they need to hop on the next big thing before it's too late. Somehow this hobby continues to find a way to maintain it's relevance and stature (easily a top 3) in the big boy collecting categories.

Edited August 17, 2018 by comicwiz

[ExNihilo]

Very small issue, I have often wondered how many signature series books were previously slabbed and aren't deleted from the census.  On the few occasions that I sent in a blue label book, I always made sure to send the label in as well so they could update their records.  But I wonder how many other people do this.  Like I said, the difference in the end is probably only a fraction of a percentage.

[valiantman]

17 minutes ago, comicwiz said:

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

We're going to see 20 or 30 books from 1938 to 1991 skyrocket

I say it's funny because in other hobbies, I sometimes wonder how they are able to sustain so much interest without having even a handful of full-time dealers or dedicated auction houses to be able to build their collections. And here in our comic hobby, we very easily have the most full-time comic dealers, the most auction and consignment sites, and staggeringly consistent successful event auctions with new record sale benchmarks year after year. I already have seen the kind of debasing you talk about, where the inquiries a dealer gets are the same 10 or 12 books everyone else wants. I'd say I started really noticing this after the first Avengers movie (2012), so 6 or so later, we haven't really seen a thinning out we'd expect. Somehow, big collections continue to get absorbed. Key issues continue to climb in value, whether or not there are 2000 or more copies on the census. People aren't shying away, and somehow this hobby continues to find a way to maintain it's relevance and stature (easily a top 3) in the big boy collecting categories.

It is (or should be) pretty clear which books are absolutely not going to fall (unless the whole industry goes away like Beanie Babies)... they are the first appearances of household names.  I don't mean comic book collector households, I mean all households.  The 8-year-old and 88-year-old know who they are characters.  There's no doubt that the first appearances for ancillary characters are also solid books, since some collectors prefer Dr. Octopus and some prefer Green Goblin and some prefer Venom, but they all collect Spider-Man... and AF #15 and ASM #1 are the natural Spider-Man "must haves".  I've been on this board since 2002, so I've seen the discussions of Bronze Age books are too plentiful for over 15 years.  That hasn't stopped Hulk #181 skyrocketing.  We've got Amazing Fantasy #15 (1962) behaving as if it was a bigger key than just about any book printed in the 1940s or 1950s.  The reason is that Amazing Fantasy #15 was 40 years old in 2002, while 1940 was 62 years earlier.  Now, it's Amazing Fantasy at 56 years old and 1940 was 78 years ago... both of those are at least two generations back.  Bronze age books like Hulk #181 are 44 years old.  That's also two generations back.  Action #1 was "my grandpa's generation" when I started collecting, but it was only 52 years old. There are now kids at comic conventions who can say Hulk #181 was "my grandpa's generation" because it's 44.  The old Golden, Silver, and Bronze age gaps don't matter... they're all two generations ago.  The supply is the only thing keeping Hulk #181 from matching AF #15 or Action #1 in terms of pricing, but I don't think the supply is high enough to keep Hulk #181 from being $2,500 for ANY complete copy.  It will be $10,000 for a mid-grade.  It will be $100,000 for a CGC 9.8... and all of those prices still pale in comparison to Amazing Fantasy #15.  If the child and the great-grandma both know the character, the first appearance will be in the stratosphere.

Edited August 17, 2018 by valiantman

[valiantman]

7 minutes ago, ExNihilo said:

Very small issue, I have often wondered how many signature series books were previously slabbed and aren't deleted from the census.  On the few occasions that I sent in a blue label book, I always made sure to send the label in as well so they could update their records.  But I wonder how many other people do this.  Like I said, the difference in the end is probably only a fraction of a percentage.

It could be half a percent or it could be 20%, but either way, the CGC Census is showing a number that is higher than the available slabs in the world.  If 20,000 copies on the CGC Census already isn't enough, it's even worse if the number of copies in the real world is 16,000 to 19,999.

[comicwiz]

7 minutes ago, valiantman said:

The supply is the only thing keeping Hulk #181 from matching AF #15 or Action #1 in terms of pricing, but I don't think the supply is high enough to keep Hulk #181 from being $2,500 for ANY complete copy.  It will be $10,000 for a mid-grade.  It will be $100,000 for a CGC 9.8... and all of those price still pale in comparison to Amazing Fantasy #15.  If the child and the great-grandma both know the character, the first appearance will be in the stratosphere.

The one thing you are overlooking is consumer dynamics in a rapidly changing market environment. For example, I once PM'd someone on a comic art page, and suggested a trade for a key character issue, and the person had no idea what I was talking about. In another example, someone limelhighted a wax or resin of a superhero character, and mentioned the issue for that characters frst appearance, and they didn't even know why I mentioned that issue number. How do people collect something like original art or 3D preproduction figures and not have some basis, history or understanding of those characters in the comic format? Makes no sense to me, but somehow, this "disruptor" makes it impossible to conclude the patterning you're suggesting. There's a lot more options for collectors to interact with these characters than there ever has been before.

Edited August 17, 2018 by comicwiz

[valiantman]

5 minutes ago, comicwiz said:

The one thing you are overlooking is consumer dynamics in a rapidly changing market environment. For example, I once PM'd someone on a comic art page, and suggested a trade for a key character issue, and the person had no idea what I was talking about. In another example, someone limelhighted a wax or resin of a superhero character, and mentioned the issue for that characters frst appearance, and they didn't even know why I mentioned that issue number. How do people collect something like original art or 3D preproduction figures and not have some basis, history or understanding of those characters in the comic format? Makes no sense to me, but somehow, this "disruptor" makes it impossible to conclude the patterning you're suggesting. There's a lot more options for collectors to interact with these characters than there ever has been before.

Agreed, but there is no doubt that someone interested in comic books for a particular character will check out their options when purchasing comic books of that character.  They may have no idea which books mean what if they're being introduced to comic books through original art or resin sculptures, but those are auxiliary individuals and not reflective of the people seeking comic books.

[NoMan]

Dazzler is up on the wall now at 20$ (RAW). I've thought about buying ROM #1 and the like just to see what happens. I bought an Eternals 1 for about 8 bucks about 2 years ago. This hobby is beyond strange

Edited August 17, 2018 by NoMan