CGC census is high, but there aren't enough keys 5 5

[comicwiz]

27 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Agreed, but there is no doubt that someone interested in comic books for a particular character will check out their options when purchasing comic books of that character.  They may have no idea which books mean what if they're being introduced to comic books through original art or resin sculptures, but those are auxiliary individuals and not reflective of the people seeking comic books.

I agree to a certain extent. These are segments which more commonly become pathways to evolved collecting. There is a skip or advancement happening, and it's impossible to tell whether it's related to accessibility, high census populations, or the market pricing out would be collectors. In relation to your analysis on the census, buying into an only example OA page or figural sculpt at $1K might seem the better buy for growth we saw in the early 2000's when we became members of this forum. With my experience on these boards and in other collecting categories, I read it as people seeing more growth potential in these areas without having to break their bank. Less than 10 years ago, I was buyiing CGC 8.5's in multiples for $850 (or less) on these very boards, and at that time Hulk 181 seemed to have stalled to the point where some of these books would linger for a few days or even weeks before I waited to make a move on them. No takers now just means a page or sculpt in a Facebook group seems far more attractive than a book which has a high population or staleness factor working against it given how long it's been bandied around, and how many are out there.

Edited August 17, 2018 by comicwiz

[sfcityduck]

Comic books are not an "investment" in the same sense that business or real estate ownership is.  Why?  Because a comic book does not generate a stream of income.  Businesses can generate revenues and real estate can generate rents and crops.  Comic books generate no significant income.  

"But wait!," you say, "it is an equity investment!"  That is just a fancy way of saying that a comic is only worth what the next guy will pay for it.  In other words, while demand can drive the price higher, lack of demand can cause the price to plummet.  The history of the hobby has seen both occur. 

We all know of hot books where the bottom fell out.  Pretending that prices can only go up is naive.  If you want to see this with a sound effect, watch an episode of "Vintage Antiques Roadshow" where they show appraisals from 15 years ago and then re-appraise the item for today's market.  Most items are plummeting in price because the demand for many categories of antiques has dramatically changed ($30K Bowie knife in 2003 now valued at $15K is one example I noted on last week's episode).  

The comic market on the highest end, Action 1, is not the same market on the lower end for IH 181.  The supply and demand issues are different, but they both exist. 

For IH 181, it is highly questionable that the demand for IH 181 slabs outpaces demand.  10,000+ copies of have been slabbed, and there seems to be an endless supply for sale on eBay, at conventions, and at stores.  Lots of deals out there.  And many older collectors, like myself, have raw copies we bought in the 70s and 80s before CGC that we don't bother getting slabbed because we don't intend to sell ... yet.  So the prospects for a supply surge is present.

For Action 1, high prices have shrunk the supply and demand pool down into double digits.  There are very very few market participants on the highest end of the market, and it is notable that the guy who has paid the top two prices for Action 1s is now sitting on the sidelines.  The guy who paid the fourth highest price is now dead.  At most there are only four active collectors have ever paid more than $1M for a comic book.  So the notion that prices for a high end book like Action 1 will continue on the present trajectory is by no means certain.  Especially if the many collectors sitting on unslabbed Action 1s decide to sell off their copies.  Most GA collectors believe that the 69 Action 1s on the Census is a minority of the total copies, with conventional wisdom suggesting there are between 150 to 300 copies out there.  Many of us know collectors who possess unslabbed Action 1s.  And, for example, the guy I know with one has vowed to sell his when he turns 65 in a few years.  He has already started liquidating his massive collection that he first started accumulating in the 1960s.  He's not alone in that profile.  So the prospects for an increase in supply that will impact Action 1 price trajectories is also high.

I would not be surprised if IH 181 and Action 1 prices flatten out within the next five to ten years.  Will they drop?  Much more likely for IH 181 than Action 1, but anything is possible.  Buy what you love, because you may end up holding it for longer than you want or having to take a bit of a loss for the privilege of ownership.  

 

Edited August 18, 2018 by sfcityduck

[valiantman]

3 minutes ago, comicwiz said:

I agree to a certain extent. These are segments which more commonly become pathways to evolved collecting. There is a skip or advancement happening, and it's impossible to tell whether it's related to accessibility, high census populations, or the market pricing out would be collectors. In relation to your analysis on the census, buying into an only example OA page or figural sculpt at $1K might seem the better buy for growth we saw in the early 2000's when we became members of this forum. With my experience on these boards and in other collecting categories, I read it as people seeing more growth potential in these areas without having to break their bank. Less than 10 years ago, I was buyiing CGC 8.5's in multiples for $850 (or less) on these very boards, and at that time Hulk 181 seemed to have stalled to the point where some of these books would linger for a few days or even weeks before I waited to make a move on them. No takers now just means a page or sculpt in a Facebook group seems far more attractive than a book which has a high population or staleness factor working against it given how long it's been bandied around, and how many are out there.

Agreed... I'm not suggesting that comic books are a superior alternative to original art.  Each piece is unique, so there's no GPA average for the original art market. Even if there was a GPA for original art, it would be more like real estate where there would be "comparables" but no matching item sales (other than the prior sale for the exact same unique item).  That's a different kind of market altogether, with nuance for basically every item, and certainly a different kind of market than slabbed comics (or slabbed coins or slabbed cards).  I'm sure there are ways to collect original art in quantity, but there's no way to invest in multiples of the same item.

[valiantman]

7 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

Comic books are not an "investment" in the same sense that business or real estate ownership is.  Why?  Became a comic book does not generate a stream of income.  Businesses can generate revenues and real estate can generate rents and crops.  Comic books generate no significant income.  

"But wait!," you say, "it is an equity investment!"  That is just a fancy way of saying that a comic is only worth what the next guy will pay for it.  In other words, while demand can drive the price higher, lack of demand can cause the price to plummet.  The history of the hobby has seen both occur. 

We all know of hot books where the bottom fell out.  Pretending that prices can only go up is naive.  If you want to see this with a sound effect, watch an episode of "Vintage Antiques Roadshow" where they show appraisals from 15 years ago and then re-appraise the item for today's market.  Most items are plummeting in price because the demand for many categories of antiques has dramatically changed ($30K Bowie knife in 2003 now valued at $15K is one example I noted on last week's episode).  

The comic market on the highest end, Action 1, is not the same market on the lower end for IH 181.  The supply and demand issues are different, but they both exist. 

For IH 181, it is highly questionable that the demand for IH 181 slabs outpaces demand.  10,000+ copies of have been slabbed, and there seems to be an endless supply for sale on eBay, at conventions, and at stores.  Lots of deals out there.  And many older collectors, like myself, had raw copies we bought in the 70s and 80s before CGC that we don't bother getting slabbed because we don't intend to sell ... yet.  So the prospects for a supply surge is present.

For Action 1, high prices have shrunk the supply and demand pool down into double digits.  There are very very few market participants on the highest end of the market, and it is notable that the guy who has paid the top two prices for Action 1s is now sitting on the sidelines.  The buy who paid the fourth highest price is now dead.  At most there are only four active collectors have ever paid more than $1M for a comic book.  So the notion that prices for a high end book like Action 1 will continue on the present trajectory is by no means certain.  Especially if the many collectors sitting on unslabbed Action 1s decide to sell off their copies.  Most GA collectors believe that the 69 Action 1s on the Census is a minority of the total copies, with conventional wisdom suggesting there are between 150 to 300 copies out there.  Many of us know collectors who possess unslabbed Action 1s.  And, for example, the guy I know with one has vowed to sell his when he turns 65 in a few years.  He has already started liquidating his massive collection that he first started accumulating in the 1960s.  He's not alone in that profile.  So the prospects for an increase in supply that will impact Action 1 price trajectories is also high.

I would not be surprise if IH 181 and Action 1 prices flatten out within the next five to ten years.  Will they drop?  Much more likely for IH 181 than Action 1, but anything is possible.  Buy what you love, because you may end up holding it for longer than you want or having to take a bit of a loss for the privilege of ownership.  

All of this is true, and the overall demand for comic books may fall, especially when people are tired of the comic book movies.  Superhero comics books could easily become more like westerns when the movies end, since both western movies and western comics don't sell like they used to... but that's a danger for the entire comic book hobby.  If you don't want to invest in comic books, then don't.  That's simple enough. 

But if you do want to invest in comic books, I'm confident that the first appearances of the absolute top characters in pop culture, are more likely to sustain their prices or grow more quickly than any other books in the hobby.  I'm doubtful that anyone is going to use my advice to buy a $3M copy of Action Comics #1 and risk losing money, but if anyone is trying to decide between purchasing a high grade Hulk #182 and a low grade Hulk #181 for the same price, they should pick the Hulk #181.  That advice goes doubly for anyone considering a $1,000+ modern variant of Wolverine when a copy of Hulk #181 is available for the same price.  The key first appearances are going to separate, far more than they have now.  The gap will widen, even as supply increases.

[sfcityduck]

17 minutes ago, valiantman said:

But if you do want to invest in comic books, I'm confident that the first appearances of the absolute top characters in pop culture, are more likely to sustain their prices or grow more quickly than any other books in the hobby.  I'm doubtful that anyone is going to use my advice to buy a $3M copy of Action Comics #1 and risk losing money, but if anyone is trying to decide between purchasing a high grade Hulk #182 and a low grade Hulk #181 for the same price, they should pick the Hulk #181.  That advice goes doubly for anyone considering a $1,000+ modern variant of Wolverine when a copy of Hulk #181 is available for the same price.  The key first appearances are going to separate, far more than they have now.  The gap will widen, even as supply increases.

While I generally agree with your sensible statement, I do have two caveats.

First, CGC has changed the hobby.  Covers matter more than first appearances.  That's exactly why IH 181 is worth more than IH 180.  What's the cheapest 1963 Marvel first appearance of a big character and why?

That's also why many books in the GA market are surging despite having ZERO pop culture significance - the most obvious example being Suspense 3.  

Second, as the plentiful keys increase in value out of reach of buyers, the market's potential for sustaining a correction due to the "I can't afford my own collection" effect occurs.  This effect happens because a lot more folks were buying, and are now holding, keys when they were much more common on the market.  As the keys increase in value, the incentive for those "ordinary folk" collectors to cash in multiplies, and the potential for a supply correction increases.  This is also true if the demographic of the holders of those keys are similar (e.g., the kids who were born in 1950 and buying Marvel's off the stands in the 60s are now 68 and entering retirement, thus the potential that they (and those born later in the 50s) will exit the market in greater numbers around the same time is a real and increasing risk). 

Edited August 17, 2018 by sfcityduck

[valiantman]

2 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

While I generally agree with your sensible statement, I do have two caveats.

First, CGC has changed the hobby.  Covers matter more than first appearances.  That's exactly why IH 181 is worth more than IH 180.  What's the cheapest 1963 Marvel first appearance of a big character and why?

That's also why many books in the GA market are surging despite having ZERO pop culture significance - the most obvious example being Suspense 3.  

Second, as the plentiful keys increase in value out of reach of buyers, the market's potential for sustaining a correction due to the "I can't afford my own collection" effect occurs.  This effect happens because a lot more folks were buying, and are now holding, keys when they were much more common on the market.  As the keys increase in value, the incentive for those "ordinary folk" collectors to cash in multiplies, and the potential for a supply correction increases.  This is also true if the demographic of the holders of those keys are similar (e.g., the kids who were born in 1950 and buying Marvel's off the stands in the 60s are now 68 and entering retirement, thus the potential that they (and those born later in the 50s) will exit the market in greater numbers around the same time is a real and increasing risk). 

Agreed.  I think we have the same mindset on this, if you also agree that the collectors exiting/cashing-out are going to impact the supply of every book in their collection, so the non-keys (with lesser demand) are a worse place to be holding than the keys.

[kimik]

2 hours ago, valiantman said:

I think we can all agree that the demand exceeds supply for books like Action Comics #1 or Detective Comics #27, and we can see that the CGC Census is hundreds of times higher for books like Hulk #181 and Amazing Spider-man #300... so we say those books are plentiful.  There are under 20,000 copies of Amazing Spider-man #300 on the CGC census, after almost 20 years.  On one hand, it's everywhere... it's easy to find.  On the other hand, only 20,000 people can own one.  Are there more than 20,000 people who want one?  Then there aren't enough.  Are there more than 10,000 people who want to own a Hulk #181 slab?  There aren't enough.  More will be graded for sure, but what if there are 20,000 people who want a copy?  That could take another 20 years of slabbing.

Meanwhile, Gemstone sells about 30,000 to 50,000 copies of the Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide each year.  We don't know how many collectors there are, but people who are willing to pay $20+ for a price guide are likely to be interested in owning key issues eventually... since they obviously own or collect something.  A million people go to comic conventions.  Tens of millions go to comic movies.  400,000+ copies of the latest issue of Batman sold last month.  Fewer than 20,000 can own a CGC slab for ANY comic book because there isn't a book with 20,000 on the CGC Census.  Recent price increases almost across the board for key issues are a reflection of something that is more than a handful of new collectors buying. 

The fact that only a hundred people can own Action Comics #1 or Detective #27, and thousands of people have absolutely given up on ever owning a copy.. hasn't caused the prices to fall. They've skyrocketed. People may give up on ever owning a copy of Amazing Fantasy #15 or even Hulk #181, and those who are buying now aren't expecting them to be cheaper in the future.  Do more than 20,000 people want to own a CGC slab for Amazing Spider-man #300?  That's fewer than 10 copies per U.S. county, ignoring that we know there are thousands of slabs outside the U.S.  I think that we're going to run out of slabs for every key... if we haven't already.  The gap between the prices for the first appearances of major characters and the prices of every other comic book is going to widen even more.  Even if there are always copies available on Ebay, even if there are tens of thousands on the CGC census, even if collectors can get raw copies anywhere.  It won't be enough.  Not for the major characters... maybe not even for second tier characters.  It will be more than just Superman and Batman first appearances that can't be afforded.  It will be Wonder Woman, Captain America, Spider-man, Hulk, Iron Man, Thor, Wolverine, Flash, Supergirl, Uncle Scrooge, Venom, Deadpool... if everyone, everywhere, knows that comic book character, then it will not be possible to affordably own the first appearance.  We're going to see 20 or 30 books from 1938 to 1991 skyrocket... and we'll be wishing we had bought them like shares of Apple stock 15 years ago, rather than just having "one for the collection" or zero copies because "it's still on my want list".

It is not rocket science. Some boardies/collectors have been building multiples of keys and hot covers for a while now..........

[valiantman]

Just now, kimik said:

It is not rocket science. Some boardies/collectors have been building multiples of keys and hot covers for a while now..........

... and why did they do that? 

[kimik]

53 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

And many older collectors, like myself, had raw copies we bought in the 70s and 80s before CGC that we don't bother getting slabbed because we don't intend to sell ... yet.  So the prospects for a supply surge is present.

 

I tried to say this in another thread re: there being a lot of HG copies of IH 181 locked into long held collections and got jumped on for even suggesting it since all of the high grade copies have already been slabbed.  

[Martin Sinescu]

I think it's flawed to assume all these thousands of people want a CGC-graded copy of a first appearance. We are a small niche of comic fandom.

[valiantman]

Just now, kimik said:

56 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

And many older collectors, like myself, had raw copies we bought in the 70s and 80s before CGC that we don't bother getting slabbed because we don't intend to sell ... yet.  So the prospects for a supply surge is present.

 

I tried to say this in another thread re: there being a lot of HG copies of IH 181 locked into long held collections and got jumped on for even suggesting it since all of the high grade copies have already been slabbed.  

You didn't get jumped on by me.  My post says there are 10,000 slabs of Hulk 181 and that the number could be 20,000... but will it take 20 more years of slabbing?  What's the demand?  I don't think 20,000 will be enough.

[valiantman]

Just now, Martin Sinescu said:

I think it's flawed to assume all these thousands of people want a CGC-graded copy of a first appearance. We are a small niche of comic fandom.

Possibly, but there are tens of millions of slabs for coins... and that doesn't seem to stop the coinies who don't need no stinkin' plastic.  We're nowhere near tens of millions of slabs for comics... and coins aren't exactly a pop culture phenomenon.

[RockMyAmadeus]

4 minutes ago, kimik said:

I tried to say this in another thread re: there being a lot of HG copies of IH 181 locked into long held collections and got jumped on for even suggesting it since all of the high grade copies have already been slabbed.  

Silly people. There are millions of copies of high grade key books that haven't seen the inside of a slab.

CGC has slabbed...4 million now? Still less than the print run of Superman #75.

There are billions and billions of comic books in existence. The vast majority of comics produced since 1965 have been saved in the tens of thousands (including Hulk #181.)

In fact, I wouldn't at ALL be surprised if 75% OR MORE of the copies initially sold (excluding returns, of course) of Hulk #181 still exist today.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if NINETY per cent of those copies still exist.

That's somewhere between 50-150,000 copies floating around.

[RockMyAmadeus]

3 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Possibly, but there are tens of millions of slabs for coins... and that doesn't seem to stop the coinies who don't need no stinkin' plastic.  We're nowhere near tens of millions of slabs for comics... and coins aren't exactly a pop culture phenomenon.

But coins are an everyday use item, passing through the hands...still...of tens of millions of people in the US, and billions around the world, every day.

[valiantman]

3 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

In fact, I wouldn't at ALL be surprised if 75% OR MORE of the copies initially sold (excluding returns, of course) of Hulk #181 still exist today.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if NINETY per cent of those copies still exist.

That's somewhere between 50-150,000 copies floating around.

No argument, but 20 years of CGC slabbing has only gotten us to 10,000.  How quickly will we get to 20,000?

[valiantman]

1 minute ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

7 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Possibly, but there are tens of millions of slabs for coins... and that doesn't seem to stop the coinies who don't need no stinkin' plastic.  We're nowhere near tens of millions of slabs for comics... and coins aren't exactly a pop culture phenomenon.

But coins are an everyday use item, passing through the hands...still...of tens of millions of people in the US, and billions around the world, every day.

Plus, there are all those Halloween costumes for Washington, Kennedy, and Lincoln (who always walks the other way down the sidewalk). 

[MGsimba77]

3 hours ago, valiantman said:

Too many words? 

OK, then just read this:

"It will be more than just Superman and Batman first appearances that can't be afforded.  It will be Wonder Woman, Captain America, Spider-man, Hulk, Iron Man, Thor, Wolverine, Flash, Supergirl, Uncle Scrooge, Venom, Deadpool... if everyone, everywhere, knows that comic book character, then it will not be possible to affordably own the first appearance.  We're going to see 20 or 30 books from 1938 to 1991 skyrocket... and we'll be wishing we had bought them like shares of Apple stock 15 years ago, rather than just having "one for the collection" or zero copies because "it's still on my want list"."

I agree with you. In my view it's easy to get cought up in the supply side numbers but totally miss the current or potential future demand side numbers.

How many 10 year olds went to see infinity war & as a result will now get hooked on marvel comics? How many become interested after Black panther?... Or Venom? The possibilities have just expanded infinitely due to MCU now having all it's toys back! These high grade bronze early copper keys will only become less & less available as years go by not more. The MCU will ensure that demand for keys or comics in general will remain high. 

 

[entalmighty1]

32 minutes ago, kimik said:

I tried to say this in another thread re: there being a lot of HG copies of IH 181 locked into long held collections and got jumped on for even suggesting it since all of the high grade copies have already been slabbed.  

I know for a fact I've seen multiple pictures on these very forums of collectors with at least a dozen raw copies in their collections, many high grade.  To suggest even the majority of copies are slabbed is probably an overestimation of CGC's impact.

[valiantman]

3 minutes ago, entalmighty1 said:

36 minutes ago, kimik said:

I tried to say this in another thread re: there being a lot of HG copies of IH 181 locked into long held collections and got jumped on for even suggesting it since all of the high grade copies have already been slabbed.  

I know for a fact I've seen multiple pictures on these very forums of collectors with at least a dozen raw copies in their collections, many high grade.  To suggest even the majority of copies are slabbed is probably an overestimation of CGC's impact.

Since this is my topic, I feel like I should point out that no one has suggested that the majority of copies are slabbed.

[Bomber-Bob]

I'm not sure I understand what this thread is about ? As someone else mentioned, too many words. I read the original post a couple times can't find a question in there ? Also, the title says 'CGC census is high, but there aren't enough keys' , What the heck does that mean ?