CGC census is high, but there aren't enough keys 5 5

[entalmighty1]

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Since this is my topic, I feel like I should point out that no one has suggested that the majority of copies are slabbed.

I was mainly just reinforcing what @kimik said.  

It does (or should) play into the supply part of your topic.  I see LOTS of Hulk 181's available at almost every show I go to.  I'm beyond confused at this book's sudden stratospheric price increase.

[valiantman]

1 minute ago, Bomber-Bob said:

I'm not sure I understand what this thread is about ? As someone else mentioned, too many words. I read the original post a couple times can't find a question in there ? Also, the title says 'CGC census is high, but there aren't enough keys' , What the heck does that mean ? 

There are lots of copies of key issues like Hulk #181 and ASM #300 on the CGC census.  People have spent about 15 years on this very board talking about how that's plenty.  How it's more supply than demand.  I say that it's not enough.  Thanks for chiming in.

[ADAMANTIUM]

1 minute ago, Bomber-Bob said:

I'm not sure I understand what this thread is about ? As someone else mentioned, too many words. I read the original post a couple times can't find a question in there ? Also, the title says 'CGC census is high, but there aren't enough keys' , What the heck does that mean ? 

More people wanting CGC slabs than there are CGC slabs..... resulting in not enough keys in slabs than people looking for these keys.... resulting in prosperity for these key's for the future.... especially compared to the thousands that see comic book movies and or other related products and/or material  

[valiantman]

1 minute ago, entalmighty1 said:

I was mainly just reinforcing what @kimik said.  

It does (or should) play into the supply part of your topic.  I see LOTS of Hulk 181's available at almost every show I go to.  I'm beyond confused at this book's sudden stratospheric price increase.

Gotcha.  In terms of decades of popularity, the big 3 are well-known, and I think we can also identify the big 5.

Superman = first appearance too expensive

Batman = first appearance too expensive

Spider-man = first appearance too expensive

Hulk = first appearance too expensive

Wolverine = first appearance is becoming too expensive

The Big 5 are too expensive... or they will be... as soon as Hulk #181 settles.  

I think the Big 10 and Big 20 will be too.

[sfcityduck]

35 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Gotcha.  In terms of decades of popularity, the big 3 are well-known, and I think we can also identify the big 5.

Superman = first appearance too expensive

Batman = first appearance too expensive

Spider-man = first appearance too expensive

Hulk = first appearance too expensive

Wolverine = first appearance is becoming too expensive

The Big 5 are too expensive... or they will be... as soon as Hulk #181 settles.  

I think the Big 10 and Big 20 will be too.

Big big problem with your analysis.  Which of those is not like the others?

It is pretty common knowledge that any books published after 1964 were actively collected by a large and developed comic fandom.  It's the pre-1964 books which are rare.  

Grouping IH 181 with those other books ignores supply and demand.

[sfcityduck]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

You didn't get jumped on by me.  My post says there are 10,000 slabs of Hulk 181 and that the number could be 20,000... but will it take 20 more years of slabbing?  What's the demand?  I don't think 20,000 will be enough.

Why will it take 20 more years of slabbing?  Are you projecting that 1,000 IH 181 are sent to CGC per year or do you think CGC lacks the capacity to slab 10K comics in a year?

The supply already outpaces demand.  Unlike with the big GA keys, we've never seen a period when a IH 181 was not readily available for purchase -- really we're talking a 100+ on any given day.  

Hard to believe that Wolverine will ever become hotter than he is today.

[Lazyboy]

52 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Since this is my topic, I feel like I should point out that no one has suggested that the majority of copies are slabbed.

*in this thread... so far

Anyway, I heard a rumor that people could own comics without having them encased in rigid plastics. My collection would seem to support that.

How high is the specific demand for CGC graded copies, really?

[Lazyboy]

2 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

First, CGC has changed the hobby.  Covers matter more than first appearances.

Bull

2 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

  That's exactly why IH 181 is worth more than IH 180. 

I had no idea that CGC was so powerful that they affected things that happened almost two decades before they existed.

[1950's war comics]

I know one thing..... raw and especially graded cards and coins are twenty times easier to sell pack and ship than comics.....

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, sfcityduck said:

Big big problem with your analysis.  Which of those is not like the others?

It is pretty common knowledge that any books published after 1964 were actively collected by a large and developed comic fandom.  It's the pre-1964 books which are rare.  

Grouping IH 181 with those other books ignores supply and demand.

Neither Hulk #1 nor Amazing Fantasy #15 are rare. The only legitimately rare books on that list are Action #1 and Tec #27.

As has been discussed before, the extant amount of copies of AF #15 numbers in the tens of thousands. Hulk #1 is probably not substantially lower.

Fandom was not large and developed by, or even shortly after, 1964. It would take another 10-20 years for that to happen.

Hulk #181 may be night and day compared to AF #15 and Hulk #1...maybe...but AF #15 and Hulk #1 are even moreso compared to Action #1 and Tec #27.

And there are GA keys...Pep #22, for example, or Suspense Comics #3...which make Action #1 and Tec #27 look fairly common.

[RockMyAmadeus]

For further emphasis:

There are 10,772 copies of Hulk #181 on the census as of right now.

There are 2,988 copies of Amazing Fantasy #15

There are 1,552 copies of Hulk #1

There are 67 copies of Detective #27

There are 69 copies of Action #1

For every AF #15 on the census, there are 3.6 copies of Hulk #181

For every Hulk #1 on the census, there are 6.9 copies of Hulk #181

But for every Detective #27, there are 44.6 copies of AF #15, and 23.2 copies of Hulk #1

For every Action #1, there are 43.3 copies of AF #15 and 22.5 copies of Hulk #1

AF #15 and Hulk #1 = not rare.

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, Lazyboy said:

3 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

First, CGC has changed the hobby.  Covers matter more than first appearances.

Bull

Quote

  That's exactly why IH 181 is worth more than IH 180. 

I had no idea that CGC was so powerful that they affected things that happened almost two decades before they existed.

It's the time machine they keep in the back.

[RockMyAmadeus]

And none of these numbers takes into account resubmissions, which doesn't much matter with the Hulks or AF #15s, but probably has an impact on the Tec #27 and Action #1 numbers.....

[valiantman]

These numbers are proving my point.

Solid mid-grade Action 1 and Detective 27 are $1,000,000 comics.

A solid mid-grade AF #15 is (or soon will be) a $100,000 comic.

A solid mid-grade Hulk #181 will be a $10,000 comic.

A solid mid-grade ASM #300 will be a $1,000 comic.

The number of existing copies (including raws) tracks well with these prices.

[ADAMANTIUM]

11 minutes ago, valiantman said:

These numbers are proving my point.

Solid mid-grade Action 1 and Detective 27 are $1,000,000 comics.

A solid mid-grade AF #15 is (or soon will be) a $100,000 comic.

A solid mid-grade Hulk #181 will be a $10,000 comic.

A solid mid-grade ASM #300 will be a $1,000 comic.

The number of existing copies (including raws) tracks well with these prices.

It's also proving the point that there are not enough keys of vastly known characters to meet the vast all be it diverse type's of demand. Well known character equals possibility, and that possibility diminishes as these more well known characters out price demand.

 

Edited August 18, 2018 by ADAMANTIUM

[Readcomix]

4 hours ago, valiantman said:

No argument, but 20 years of CGC slabbing has only gotten us to 10,000.  How quickly will we get to 20,000?

We might never; there is the possibility the vast majority prefer raw. Since two decades in, the vast majority likely remain raw, we need to at least consider that. 

[Ryan.]

Hulk 180 > Hulk 181

 

 

 

[sfcityduck]

4 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

 

AF #15 and Hulk #1 = not rare.

Compared to IH 181, they are much rarer.  Which was my point.  We all know that SA Marvel's are much more common than GA comics.  

Which is, contrary to your assertion, in part due to the vibrant comic fandom that was developed in the early 1960s.  Some folks forget that comic fandom was started by DC fans.  Stan Lee gave it a big boost in the 60s, but it was up and running.  Look at when comic fanzines got started, when the first comic con was, when mail order dealers first became a real thing, when comic stores opened, and you'll see that comic fandom did NOT, as you assert, become a significant thing sometime after 1974.  That is absurd.  

From 1964 on, comics were being actively collected by droves of fans.  It was a real thing.  It impacts the availability of high grade comics pre- and post-.  

[Broke as a Joke]

There are many out there with high grade Hulk 181's in their closets that dont even know CGC exists.  

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 minute ago, sfcityduck said:

Compared to IH 181, they are much rarer.  Which was my point.  We all know that SA Marvel's are much more common than GA comics.  

Which is, contrary to your assertion, in part due to the vibrant comic fandom that was developed in the early 1960s.  Some folks forget that comic fandom was started by DC fans.  Stan Lee gave it a big boost in the 60s, but it was up and running.  Look at when comic fanzines got started, when the first comic con was, when mail order dealers first became a real thing, when comic stores opened, and you'll see that comic fandom did NOT, as you assert, become a significant thing sometime after 1974.  That is absurd.  

From 1964 on, comics were being actively collected by droves of fans.  It was a real thing.  It impacts the availability of high grade comics pre- and post-.  

Your point was that Hulk #181 didn't belong in the group with the other four books, since it was "not like the others." AF #15 and Hulk #1 "aren't like the others", and, in fact, are much, much CLOSER to Hulk #181 than they are Action #1 and Tec #27.

You're going to have to define what you mean by "droves", when the first SDCC was attended by, what, about 500 people in 1970...? 

If we're talking "absurd", I think it's the idea that an undefined assertion of what constituted a "large and developed fandom" in 1964 would fit the bill. 

If...and this is a gigantic if....there were 1,000 comic book collectors (that is, people who didn't just buy new comics, read them, and toss them. I mean people who actively saved and preserved them, and/or sought out back issues) in the entire country of 205 million in 1970, I'd be very, very surprised.

In reality, there were TWO starts to comics fandom...the first with EC in the early 50s, which essentially died with EC, and the second, which started in the early 60s, with folks like Don & Maggie Thompson, Jerry Bails, and Roy Thomas, among others. We're talking about people who number in the dozens.

Not something I would call "large and developed."

It took the Direct market and the rapid growth of what was called "the comics specialty store"...numbering a couple dozen in 1975 around the nation, to several hundred by 1980....to make that "large and developed comics fandom"...depending, again, entirely on what the words "large" and "developed" mean.