Too rare to rise? 2 2

[RockMyAmadeus]

2 minutes ago, batman_fan said:

52 minutes ago, rjpb said:

All the more so when that's the only content you can see in a slab.

Very true, maybe we should introduce the concept of “classic back cover”. Could create a whole new driver to get people to pay exorbitant prices for books. 

Eventually, someone will invent a cube, wherein books can be paged through, front to back, while preserving the grade....

(Don't laugh, someone's probably already thinking about such a silly idea.)

[KirbyJack]

1 hour ago, batman_fan said:

Very true, maybe we should introduce the concept of “classic back cover”. Could create a whole new driver to get people to pay exorbitant prices for books. 

I’m thinking about the ad on the back cover of All-Winners #2.

[valiantman]

18 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

 

I'd posit the following demand based explanations for the discrepancy:

* NYWF has a lousy cover.  It does not feature a superhero, and they mis-colored Superman's cameo head shot.  In contrast, Superman 6 is a cool early Superman cover. In the GCG world, this may be the only explanation you need.

* Superman is part of one the most actively collected runs of GA comics by DC collectors.  NYWF is an oddity.

* Superman 6 trades for less money.  In 2018, it is still less expensive than NYWF was in 2006.  Less cost means bigger buyer pool.  The dollar increase in value of Superman 6 is less than the dollar value increase in value of NYWF.  That alone can explain why it has increased more in value percentage-wise than NYWF. 

Finally, to your bigger point.  There are examples of rare books which have tremendously appreciated in dolar value with little (or even no) intervening sales.  It all goes back to demand.  The WW ashcan might be an interesting test case for your theory.

Backing up my selection of NYWF 1939 and Superman #6 for the comparison, I recognize that NYWF 1939 is an oddity, but we're talking about a pre-Superman #1 full story which was 67 years old in 2006 (the start of my comparison).  Agreed, it doesn't have the same buyer pool or cool Superman cover as Superman #6, but it never has. Its oddness and buyer pool in the market in 2006 were no different than 2018. Did it become "more odd" somehow in the past 12 years?

I selected Superman #6 specifically because it isn't contemporary with NYWF 1939 and it does have a nice cover, but it's months later than the first issue of Superman, and it's not even in the first 5 issues of Superman.  Its place in the market and the features that Superman #6 brings to the market are the same in 2018 as they were in 2006.

You seem to be suggesting with "less cost means bigger buyer pool" that there might be a ceiling for rising prices in the four-figure area, but there are books which fly quickly at five-figure and six-figure prices.

Is $5,000 (or somewhere near it) an obstacle that books need extra help to surpass... because once books reach $10,000, it's often just a minute before they're pushing $20,000? 

Actually, that makes sense.  Comfort zones of book prices for collectors.  Many collectors are exclusive to the "under $20" zone, some might use $50 or $100, but there are definitely some who don't venture above $500. A few collectors stretch to $2,000 or $3,000 limits... but once $5,000 becomes possible, then we may really be talking about buyers who are just as comfortable at $20,000 as they are at $5,000.

That seems to be what happened with Amazing Fantasy #15.   Once every complete copy in all grades passed $5,000, prices jumped past $20,000 in VG as if it was no big deal. 

 

Edited August 23, 2018 by valiantman

[IngelsFan]

8 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Actually, that makes sense.  Comfort zones of book prices for collectors.  Many collectors are exclusive to the "under $20" zone, some might use $50 or $100, but there are definitely some who don't venture above $500. A few collectors stretch to $2,000 or $3,000 limits... but once $5,000 becomes possible, then we may really be talking about buyers who are just as comfortable at $20,000 as they are at $5,000.

This is so damn true!

[bluechip]

27 minutes ago, KirbyJack said:

I’m thinking about the ad on the back cover of All-Winners #2.

There are many great back covers.   Challenger 1 (anti-racist story);  Human Torch 2 (with unpublished Hitler-Stalin cover to Young Allies 1, which also appears on USA 2 -- making it the only known cover with Hitler on the front and the back); many with pin-ups, of course.  Timely had great ads on the back of many covers in the early 40s.  And I like the silver age Marvel covers which have ads on the back for Marvel models.

[bluechip]

3 hours ago, october said:

Interesting example. Putting together a set of Centaurs, or even a run of Centaurs, is a daunting (if not near-impossible) task for any collector without a large bankroll and good connections within the hobby. A-Man 26 does well at auction because it has a well-known reputation for scarcity and high prices have driven out a handful of lower grade copies over the past few years, but there are other Centaurs that are tougher that languish....even "cool" issues. I am halfway done with my AMF 1-10 run in 7.0+ and after watching these books for years I still think they are undervalued. My copies are probably worth about what I paid for them, because there are no interim sales to support price increases or generate collector interest. Much more common (and significantly less cool) books in my collection have skyrocketed while these remain underappreciated because of their scarcity. Awareness comes before desire, and there are a ton of people still unaware because they just don't show up. 

When things get a reputation for scarcity they can do well.   The Honus Wagner card never had any reason to become valuable except its early reputation for scarcity.   That story got handed down over generations and to this day that card is sought after by people for that and no other reason.

But when books don't have a singular reputation for scarcity they don't get that benefit.

One big thing working against rare items is that when people can't deliver a copy of the book they aren't going to push it to prospective buyers.  

If you call a few dozen dealers and say you are interested in the Sub-mariner, some might tell you about Marvel 1 or Motion Picture Funnies 1, but most will not and all of them will, quite understandably, focus on whatever subby books they can easily get and sell to you. 

[sfcityduck]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

Agreed, it doesn't have the same buyer pool or cool Superman cover as Superman #6, but it never has. Its oddness and buyer pool in the market in 2006 were no different than 2018. Did it become "more odd" somehow in the past 12 years?

 

The interval between 2000 and 2006 was only six years.  The interval between 2000 and 2018 is 18 years.  I'd say that's a huge factor.  It's not that the NYWF became more odd, it is that the importance of covers has increased as CGC's influence on the market has grown and changed buyer behavior.

Edited August 23, 2018 by sfcityduck

[Timely]

4 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

That whole run has been stagnant for a long time. I like MMC but don't own any; I've avoided buying them because they seem to be on their way down. I've purchased some scarcer books that probably aren't going anywhere, but that's only been because buying opportunities are limited. The MMC issues, including number 9, are all relatively easy to find if you have the money. I'd buy one if I could get a bargain; otherwise, what's the rush? Most new collectors care more about the movie and T.V. tie-ins than anything else, and Subby and the GA Torch just don't have much pop-cultural capital.

You must be joking!

[valiantman]

21 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

* NYWF has a lousy cover.  It does not feature a superhero, and they mis-colored Superman's cameo head shot.

As a counter-point to this, I consider many aspects of science fiction as a whole indebted to the 1939 New York World's Fair. Amazing photographs of the various depictions of the park layout, the exhibits, sleek gizmos and gadgets, and all the futuristic designs of "The World of Tomorrow".  It's easy to see how Disney's Epcot Center, the first "world of tomorrow" that I ever experienced as a child, owed much of its success to the 1939 World's Fair, which was 45+ years earlier.  So, New York World's Fair 1939 comic book establishes the backdrop of the fair itself, the Trylon and Perisphere.  The big title written in the ALL CAPS ITALICS like the word ACTION and that classic font for the unitalicized COMICS underneath.  Reminds me of some famous D.C. comic title drawn in red that I can't think of... Activity Comics #1?  Something like that.  

Quickly establishing that there are 96 pages in this comic book, the book basically features the same "avatars" that we use on this board, with a headshot in a circle and the character name.  First to be featured among these is Superman.  Remember, this book is earlier than Superman #1 and probably created earlier than Action Comics #12, so there would have been exactly 3 comic book covers with Superman's head visible.  Action #1, #7, and #10.  The size of his head is probably biggest on NYWF 1939, compared to Action 1, 7, and 10, so you might forgive the colorist who took the artist's note of "bl" and assumed "blond"... that's how new the character of Superman was at the time.  Zatara got the focus on the cover of Action Comics #12, with a small Superman sidebar, so NYWF 1939 reverses that order and puts Superman above Zatara... arguably Action Comics #12 is even celebrating the opening of NYWF 1939 with that futuristic ship and Zatara cover.  A CGC 2.5 Action #12 sold for $7,000+.

Edgar Church was reduced to grabbing his own mid-grade copy from a back issue bin, since the book was tougher for him to find than a nice copy of Action #1. 

Then, near the bottom right, there's some new character that no one has ever heard of... Sand-something?  Sandman?  It's just his first appearance, so whatever.  We can probably assume Sandman's 2nd appearance in Adventure Comics #40 sells for less than his first appearance, since NYWF 1939 is not just the first appearance of Sandman... it's a pre-Superman #1 story, too.  Maybe $3,000 for the Adventure #40 in CGC 6.0?  Sounds about right.  What?  $27,000 five years ago?  Weird.

But, you're right... this 4th Superman cover is lousy in comparison to Superman #6, which came out over a year later, probably a twenty-ish cover and thirty-ish appearance of Superman, featuring the exhilarating action of Superman flying, rescuing, breaking through... uh, standing there... against a detailed backdrop of a tank, a train, the city, a circle.  Not a perisphere circle like the cover of NYWF 1939... just... a circle.

Edited August 23, 2018 by valiantman

[october]

16 minutes ago, Timely said:

5 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

That whole run has been stagnant for a long time. I like MMC but don't own any; I've avoided buying them because they seem to be on their way down. I've purchased some scarcer books that probably aren't going anywhere, but that's only been because buying opportunities are limited. The MMC issues, including number 9, are all relatively easy to find if you have the money. I'd buy one if I could get a bargain; otherwise, what's the rush? Most new collectors care more about the movie and T.V. tie-ins than anything else, and Subby and the GA Torch just don't have much pop-cultural capital.

You must be joking!

Timely issues don't seem to be appreciating at quite the same rate as some other things (horror, GGA) but that's like saying a Ferrari sucks because it's not as fast as a spaceship. 

[RockMyAmadeus]

I love that Egdar bought his copy of NYWF second-hand as one of the discounted 15c leftover copies. That's such a cool confluence of factors.

 

[sfcityduck]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

 

 

But, you're right... this 4th Superman cover is lousy in comparison to Superman #6, which came out over a year later, probably a twenty-ish cover and thirty-ish appearance of Superman, featuring the exhilarating action of Superman flying, rescuing, breaking through... uh, standing there... against a detailed backdrop of a tank, a train, the city, a circle.  Not a perisphere circle like the cover of NYWF 1939... just... a circle.

It's the first Superman pin-up front cover (Superman 1 has the pin-up back cover), has the cool signature by Clark Kent, and to my eyes captures the very essence of early GA Superman art.  NYWF?  As a cover, it's busy, has an overly large logo, a cartoon character I don't recognize, and five tiny little cameos.  It's not as good a cover.

I agree that from my perspective, which rates comic history above cover content, NYWF is a cooler comic.  But, the way I think is not consistent with the CGC mentality.  We live in a world where Suspense 3 is valued above many comics that are much much more important to comic history because of their content.

[valiantman]

8 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

I agree that from my perspective, which rates comic history above cover content, NYWF is a cooler comic.  But, the way I think is not consistent with the CGC mentality.  We live in a world where Suspense 3 is valued above many comics that are much much more important to comic history because of their content.

So, we agree.  There's a problem that needs to be corrected and we're on the same side. The revolution has begun! 

[Timely]

1 hour ago, october said:

Timely issues don't seem to be appreciating at quite the same rate as some other things (horror, GGA) but that's like saying a Ferrari sucks because it's not as fast as a spaceship. 

Leading Comics are stagnant. Star Spangled Comics are stagnant. Marvel Mystery Comics are NOT stagnant.  If that were the case I'd be winning every one I bid on.  I loose 95%+ of the time as 1 or more people bid higher than me.  And I'm a pretty aggressive buyer!

[sfcityduck]

28 minutes ago, valiantman said:

So, we agree.  There's a problem that needs to be corrected and we're on the same side. The revolution has begun! 

Actually, I think the revolutionaries won sometime between 2000 and 2018.  History has passed us by. 

[rjpb]

I hear Gingersnap is in the next JLA movie, so the book may be ready to move.

[valiantman]

6 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

Actually, I think the revolutionaries won sometime between 2000 and 2018.  History has passed us by. 

I'm 42. 

[valiantman]

Just now, rjpb said:

I hear Gingersnap is in the next JLA movie, so the book may be ready to move.

Actually, I heard that the "journalist" kid on the front of NYWF 1939 is a young Peter Parker.  That kid has a future in the talking picture shows!  

[valiantman]

6 hours ago, rjpb said:

Nothing with 56 copies on the census is rare.

I gotta address this.  "Rare" is used on this board for everything from recent variants to Gerber 10s to last night's top sirloin.

If this is a hobby that is global, one that has decades of literature about collecting, one that currently has 4.1 million listings on Ebay within the Comics category that include the word "Comics"... then anything with 4,100 copies would be 1,000-to-1 rarer than what's on Ebay right this moment.

56 is rare.  56 isn't rare.  There's no good answer to this debate.

[path4play]

23 hours ago, valiantman said:

I figured I would need to come up with some examples. 

Uh... ok. 

Between 2006 and 2018, the price for a CGC 6.0 New York World's Fair 1939 (April/May 1939) moved from $3,900 to $6,000, a +54% change.  In 2006, a CGC 6.0 Superman #6 (late-1940) sold for $700, and the most recent sale was $2,800, a +300% change.

Why would one book have a six-fold change compared to the another?  Different characters?  Not in this case.  Different supplies?  Maybe... if there were too many copies of the +54% book, and not enough of the +300% book?  Makes sense, but it's the opposite.

There were 28 universal copies of NYWF 1939 on the CGC Census in 2006, and there are 56 copies now... twice as many.  There were 30 universal copies of Superman #6 on the CGC Census in 2006, and there are 126 copies now... more than four times as many.

What's going on?  The one with more supply had such a different rise in prices, when you might expect the extra supply to dilute the prices.

There were 10 sales of CGC 6.0 Superman #6 between 2006 and 2018.  There was one sale of CGC 6.0 NYWF 1939 between 2006 and 2018.    

One had an "active" market of one sale per year, and the other only had one additional sale in a decade.

Was NYWF 1939 too rare to rise?

I've posited this myself.  Acknowledging there are literally dozens of factors that effect pricing, I too have at least felt (lacking any real empirical evidence, just observation) if a book is so rare that it virtually never comes up the interest level can seem muted, whereas books that are churning and rising seem to continue to generate further feeding frenzy.