Advice please: Blue Chip vs. Diversity 4 4

[Stan Singh]

I'm faced with a decision to trade a few of my smaller pieces for one big piece! Understanding that the answer to this question is somewhat, 'to each their own', and that people should buy what they love... when it comes to making the best decision based on protecting the value of your collection... Is it better to build a collection owning several examples from your favorite artist or owning one, blue chip piece? And why? For ex. Will a blue chip retain value better? Maybe the opposite? Would love your thoughts. 

Thanks!

[jjonahjameson11]

Yes, you should sell me your McSpidey cover and your other Spidey covers to fund your big purchase, Stan!  

[Stan Singh]

25 minutes ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

Yes, you should sell me your McSpidey cover and your other Spidey covers to fund your big purchase, Stan!  

That might be in the cards ;)... not the mcfarlane though unless I get blown away. If you're serious, email me. Stanton.singh@hotmail.com. 

[AnkurJ]

One primo piece will always appreciate more than multiple smaller pieces imo.

[delekkerste]

26 minutes ago, AnkurJ said:

One primo piece will always appreciate more than multiple smaller pieces imo.

I think this is a common belief, but is not necessarily supported by the facts. I suspect that there are a good number of Byrne X-Men pages that have appreciated more than the larger/primo #137 DPS has since the latter sold at Heritage in 2003 (of course it resold a couple/few years ago), because they started at a such smaller base and had room to run.  I can name many examples where primo pieces have been kneecapped in appreciation from starting at a high base. I don't think one can make any blanket statements about what will appreciate more without considering what is/isn't already embedded in the price. 

Similarly, we even saw huge compression on the comics side of the hobby - Hulk 181 9.8 is only barely above the peak it reached a decade ago while lower grade copies have been multi-baggers since then. 

Bottom line: the primo piece is not always the better financial bet.  From a collecting perspective, I personally would go for the primo over multiple smaller examples in most instances, but that is more of a collecting consideration than a financial one. As a collector, I want my very favorite and/or the very best examples that I can get of something, so I would opt for quality over quantity unless I had a specific nostalgic or other attachment to the less expensive piece(s). 

Edited August 25, 2018 by delekkerste

[AnkurJ]

Could the minimal financial increase of primo pieces be due to how infrequently they are traded? 

A case in point would be the ASM 59 cover. It traded hands between three dealers over the course of many years. Went from $10k to $100k to around $300k and now sold to a collector for around $400k. This is just one example but has Romita interior increased at the same percentage? I’m sure some examples have but not the majority.

[delekkerste]

1 hour ago, AnkurJ said:

Could the minimal financial increase of primo pieces be due to how infrequently they are traded? 

A case in point would be the ASM 59 cover. It traded hands between three dealers over the course of many years. Went from $10k to $100k to around $300k and now sold to a collector for around $400k. This is just one example but has Romita interior increased at the same percentage? I’m sure some examples have but not the majority.

I heard from multiple sources that the cover was available for $300K when it was stickered at $400K.  I dunno if that's where JR bought it and/or if there was trade involved, but, I think that is the real valuation benchmark.  Even if JR paid more, I think if he had to turn around and sell it right now, $300K is the real value. 

And, yes, many of the better Romita ASM pages will have far outpaced this cover between the time Anthony sold it and now.  

I don't think the frequency of transactions plays any part in the equation. Even if there weren't recent  sale data points, we can certainly estimate where values are/were at any given point in time. 

Edited August 25, 2018 by delekkerste

[Sooners151]

Long term, what about when the opposite occurs and the market corrects?  Wouldn't a blue chip have a greater probability of retaining more of its value than a group of lesser pieces?

[Rick2you2]

3 hours ago, AnkurJ said:

One primo piece will always appreciate more than multiple smaller pieces imo.

No. Lesser priced good quality pieces will do better, all things being equal. More people can afford lower priced pieces, so there is more competition. In simple numbers, a $1,000 piece is easier to sell for $2,000 than a $50,000 piece for $100,000.

But, all things have to actually be equal. Some stuff runs up steadily and hits a wall. Other stuff just sits; some keeps zooming.

I would not buy a single primo piece for a different reason: I like to look at variety.

[stinkininkin]

5 hours ago, Stan Singh said:

I'm faced with a decision to trade a few of my smaller pieces for one big piece! Understanding that the answer to this question is somewhat, 'to each their own', and that people should buy what they love... when it comes to making the best decision based on protecting the value of your collection... Is it better to build a collection owning several examples from your favorite artist or owning one, blue chip piece? And why? For ex. Will a blue chip retain value better? Maybe the opposite? Would love your thoughts. 

Thanks!

That Hush post from the other day bearing fruit perhaps?  hmmm...

Seriously, no one perfect answer, but you are getting some very astute responses here.  Good luck!

[shadroch]

Having multiple items allows you to sell a percentage of your collection. Owning a single key does not.

 

[Madman1138]

This is exactly what I have been doing recently, trading several smaller pieces for better single pieces. I think as long as your collection is well diversified with large and small value pieces, it will all balance out in the end. I do it to both thin out the collection and to get the "upgraded" pieces. 

As far as value and trading, a single high value item can be more difficult to trade off as it takes a lot of value for someone to match it and that can be an issue if you don't like enough of what they have, they don't have a similar large item, etc. Smaller value items are easier to trade as you can stack the value on your side in various ways. 

In the end, I just think of it in a cold and rational way. Would I rather have these several pieces or this one large single piece? (I usually take the single, larger piece)

[dem1138]

5 hours ago, AnkurJ said:

Could the minimal financial increase of primo pieces be due to how infrequently they are traded? 

A case in point would be the ASM 59 cover. It traded hands between three dealers over the course of many years. Went from $10k to $100k to around $300k and now sold to a collector for around $400k. This is just one example but has Romita interior increased at the same percentage? I’m sure some examples have but not the majority.

When was this cover 10K?  When Anthony first had it at cons in the early 2000s it definitely wasn't 10K.  I seem to recall something in the 60K-80K price range even back then.

[Compson]

6 hours ago, delekkerste said:

I think this is a common belief, but is not necessarily supported by the facts. I suspect that there are a good number of Byrne X-Men pages that have appreciated more than the larger/primo #137 DPS has since the latter sold at Heritage in 2003 (of course it resold a couple/few years ago), because they started at a such smaller base and had room to run.  I can name many examples where primo pieces have been kneecapped in appreciation from starting at a high base. I don't think one can make any blanket statements about what will appreciate more without considering what is/isn't already embedded in the price. 

Similarly, we even saw huge compression on the comics side of the hobby - Hulk 181 9.8 is only barely above the peak it reached a decade ago while lower grade copies have been multi-baggers since then. 

Bottom line: the primo piece is not always the better financial bet.  From a collecting perspective, I personally would go for the primo over multiple smaller examples in most instances, but that is more of a collecting consideration than a financial one. As a collector, I want my very favorite and/or the very best examples that I can get of something, so I would opt for quality over quantity unless I had a specific nostalgic or other attachment to the less expensive piece(s). 

Might the same be true of panel pages having more room to run?  Covers and splash pages command such a large premium, and if new buyers who are not pure speculators enter the field, they are likely to start at the low end.

[Panelfan1]

Another more fundamental question to ask is 'how does Stan define PRIMO?'

Is prime simply A list artist, Title and content - or is it also a Key Issue(first appearance, famous story etc..)? And how does that compare to the pieces being given up?

I started a thread a while back on 'would you trade most or all your collection for one expensive piece if art.  At the time, most responses said no because their collections were meaningful and pairing it down to 1 was too restrictive.  

The fact is - no one can predict the future. Better to invest in other stuff than art - but if the one piece happens to provide the collector with more joy than all the pieces he's giving up put together - than regardless of the market - their is a gain to be had.

[tth2]

My answer is "both".  A diverse number of blue chips is the best way to go.

[AnkurJ]

2 hours ago, dem1138 said:

When was this cover 10K?  When Anthony first had it at cons in the early 2000s it definitely wasn't 10K.  I seem to recall something in the 60K-80K price range even back then.

When it was first purchased by AS.

[dem1138]

Of note at that time, Anthony had the complete interiors to the Dr. Strange story for Strange Tales #114 and this cover and they sat...and sat...and sat.  Anthony would not break up the Dr. Strange story which was the big reason that took so long to sell.

[romitaman]

8 hours ago, AnkurJ said:

When it was first purchased by AS.

Anthony purchased the ASM 59 cover for i believe 11k the seller told me...but what year was that?? that was in the late 90s i think..and Anthony couldnt get the cash out of the asm 59 so he traded it for 2 large art Covers....1 was a JLA...and i think possibly a TOS Ironman was the other.... plus a small amount of cash....I got the ASM 59 for a 1960s kirby thor cover......and another Large art cover  and a fair amount of cash in 2016....

i could be off a little. but I dont see how any of this correlates to today and perceived values of art........

what i do know is.......TIMING is EVERYTHING........ (whether you are selling..or buying)

Look at the jim Aparo market.....his KEY Spectre and Batman art has doubled & even tripled in just over 1 year.

Edited August 26, 2018 by romitaman

[Rick2you2]

4 hours ago, romitaman said:

 

Look at the jim Aparo market.....his KEY Spectre and Batman art has doubled & even tripled in just over 1 year.

I’m not sure I would look at it that way because I don’t recall seeing major pieces on the market for several prior years. In that event, those sales recently may have been the result of pent up demand and some overheated bidding. Some of his more common stuff was on the market and it was moving up pretty consistently, at least for Phantom Stranger art, which roughly paralleled that rise.

Edited August 26, 2018 by Rick2you2