The Ongoing eBay Direct to Newsstand For Sale Ratio Project. 3 3

[RockMyAmadeus]

So, I have no idea why we didn't start this 10 years ago. I blame @valiantman . We've taken snapshots, but we've never even attempted to do a methodical analysis of the ratio of newsstand copies to Direct market copies.

Here's what I propose:

First, we nominate, say, 10 books, one or two from each short time period, from 1977 to 2017, when DC finally pulled the plug on their newsstand sales (Marvel let the ax fall in 2013.)

Then, at or around the beginning of each month, we tally up (I'll be happy to do so) the number of DIRECT market copies that are available for sale, vs. how many NEWSSTAND copies are. 

This should, over time, give us a bit of a pattern as to what is out there, keeping in mind that this is not a scientific study, because of the presence of factors over which we cannot control, like the bringing to market of copies that exist. It's critical to keep in mind that what is available at any given time only gives us the broadest clue as to what really exists, and then only in an eliminating, rather than inclusive, manner. Much like the census, which only gives us a potential ceiling for copies graded, but doesn't tell us anything about how many copies exist, or, in fact, how many copies are actually in slabs, due to resubmissions. It is only a potential number, much like these eBay numbers.

All copies will be accounted for, even ones that were listed and sold during the same calendar month.

As for the 10 (or so) books we pick, they have to be important, heavily traded (as much as possible) books. The more traded, the better. Picking, say, Amazing Spiderman #287 wouldn't work, because that book isn't nearly as heavily traded (and thus, doesn't give us as complete a picture) as, say, ASM #300 (which is an obvious choice.)

So...without further ado, let's nominate 10 books (more if necessary) and start with the project.

My nominees are:

1977-1979: Star Wars #1 (we'll have to be VERY careful to not include reprints and the 35 cent version. Only the newsstand version vs. the Direct version, which does exist!)

1979-1982: Wolverine Ltd. Series #1

1983-1987: Amazing Spiderman #252

1988-1990: Amazing Spiderman #300

1991-1995: New Mutants #98

1991-1995: Batman Adventures #12

1996-2000: Daredevil #1

2001-2005: Amazing Spiderman #36

2006-2010: Wolverine #66

2011-2017: Batman New 52 #1

 

So, feel free to nominate your candidates to track, and whatever books get the most votes, we'll use those (though there is, of course, no harm in including more.)

NOMINATION PERIOD ENDS AT 6 PM PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME ON SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2018. Whatever we have by then, that's what we'll go with.

Edited September 7, 2018 by RockMyAmadeus

[RockMyAmadeus]

Here's an example, posted in another thread by @FlyingDonut:

Quote

 

OK - and please note this is without question not statistically accurate - I've crunched a couple numbers.

2001
There are currently 59 copies of Amazing Spider-Man 36 for sale on eBay. Of those, 12 are newsstands. That's roughly a 20% ratio, which sounds about right.

Comichron shows Diamond orders of 92,765 for that book, so a ratio of 4-1 would equal about 18,867 newsstand copies.

2011
There are currently 35 copies of Amazing Spider-Man 669 for sale on eBay. Of those 2 are newstands. That's a 5.7% ratio, which again sounds about right.

Comichron shows Diamond orders of 71,944 for that book, so a 5.7% ratio would equal about 4,111 newsstand copies.

Again, not nearly accurate, but I think it passes the smell test - 20% of the direct market for a monster book in 2001 on newsstands vs. 5.7% in 2011?

 

 

[FlyingDonut]

2 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

So, I have no idea why we didn't start this 10 years ago. I blame @valiantman . We've taken snapshots, but we've never even attempted to do a methodical analysis of the ratio of newsstand copies to Direct market copies.

Here's what I propose:

First, we nominate, say, 10 books, one or two from each short time period, from 1977 to 2017, when DC finally pulled the plug on their newsstand sales (Marvel let the ax fall in 2013.)

Then, at or around the beginning of each month, we tally up (I'll be happy to do so) the number of DIRECT market copies that are available for sale, vs. how many NEWSSTAND copies are. 

This should, over time, give us a bit of a pattern as to what is out there, keeping in mind that this is not a scientific study, because of the presence of factors over which we cannot control, like the bringing to market of copies that exist. It's critical to keep in mind that what is available at any given time only gives us the broadest clue as to what really exists, and then only in an eliminating, rather than inclusive, manner. Much like the census, which only gives us a potential ceiling for copies graded, but doesn't tell us anything about how many copies exist, or, in fact, how many copies are actually in slabs, due to resubmissions. It is only a potential number, much like these eBay numbers.

All copies will be accounted for, even ones that were listed and sold during the same calendar month.

As for the 10 (or so) books we pick, they have to be important, heavily traded (as much as possible) books. The more traded, the better. Picking, say, Amazing Spiderman #287 wouldn't work, because that book isn't nearly as heavily traded (and thus, doesn't give us as complete a picture) as, say, ASM #300 (which is an obvious choice.)

So...without further ado, let's nominate 10 books (more if necessary) and start with the project.

My nominees are:

1977-1979: Star Wars #1 (we'll have to be VERY careful to not include reprints and the 35 cent version. Only the newsstand version vs. the Direct version, which does exist!)

1979-1982: Wolverine Ltd. Series #1

1983-1987: Amazing Spiderman #252

1988-1990: Amazing Spiderman #300

1991-1995: New Mutants #98

1991-1995: Batman Adventures #12

1996-2000: Daredevil #1

2001-2005: Amazing Spiderman #36

2006-2010: Wolverine #66

2011-2017: Batman New 52 #1

 

So, feel free to nominate your candidates to track, and whatever books get the most votes, we'll use those (though there is, of course, no harm in including more.)

NOMINATION PERIOD ENDS AT 6 PM PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME ON SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2018. Whatever we have by then, that's what we'll go with.

I love it - one small quibble, I think the Batman Adventures 12 will skew the data as (just my thought here) there was probably more newsstand buying of that particular book because of the type of book it was. I'd go with Amazing 365 instead.

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 minute ago, FlyingDonut said:

I love it - one small quibble, I think the Batman Adventures 12 will skew the data as (just my thought here) there was probably more newsstand buying of that particular book because of the type of book it was. I'd go with Amazing 365 instead.

I like your reasoning, but I think it's helpful precisely because there was probably more newsstand buying of that issue: it gives a broader picture.

In any event, that's why I opened it up to nominations, instead of just picking my top 10.  Whichever books get the most votes, we'll use. And there's nothing stopping us from having more than 10. I don't mind doing ASM #365 AND BA #12. 

[divad]

Use Daredevil 181. Do not use #1 issues in general as it will skew the "data." In fact it may be more representative to use before or after issues, and not the most popular in any given period.  A fun exercise, but meaningless, as discussed in other threads ad nauseum. 

[bababooey]

1 hour ago, divad said:

Use Daredevil 181. Do not use #1 issues in general as it will skew the "data." In fact it may be more representative to use before or after issues, and not the most popular in any given period.  A fun exercise, but meaningless, as discussed in other threads ad nauseum. 

I agree about first issues but I think he's choosing books by era and 1996-2000 doesn't have many books to choose from...maybe DD 380, the last issue would work? 

Also, for the record, this data will be useless and prove nothing!!!!  

Edited September 7, 2018 by bababooey

[jsilverjanet]

I’d prefer to see Spawn 1 as I think the ratio for that one would be interesting 

[jsilverjanet]

@RockMyAmadeus thank you for finally contributing something meaniful to the boards  

 

[ygogolak]

11 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

So, I have no idea why we didn't start this 10 years ago. I blame @valiantman . We've taken snapshots, but we've never even attempted to do a methodical analysis of the ratio of newsstand copies to Direct market copies.

Here's what I propose:

First, we nominate, say, 10 books, one or two from each short time period, from 1977 to 2017, when DC finally pulled the plug on their newsstand sales (Marvel let the ax fall in 2013.)

Then, at or around the beginning of each month, we tally up (I'll be happy to do so) the number of DIRECT market copies that are available for sale, vs. how many NEWSSTAND copies are. 

This should, over time, give us a bit of a pattern as to what is out there, keeping in mind that this is not a scientific study, because of the presence of factors over which we cannot control, like the bringing to market of copies that exist. It's critical to keep in mind that what is available at any given time only gives us the broadest clue as to what really exists, and then only in an eliminating, rather than inclusive, manner. Much like the census, which only gives us a potential ceiling for copies graded, but doesn't tell us anything about how many copies exist, or, in fact, how many copies are actually in slabs, due to resubmissions. It is only a potential number, much like these eBay numbers.

All copies will be accounted for, even ones that were listed and sold during the same calendar month.

As for the 10 (or so) books we pick, they have to be important, heavily traded (as much as possible) books. The more traded, the better. Picking, say, Amazing Spiderman #287 wouldn't work, because that book isn't nearly as heavily traded (and thus, doesn't give us as complete a picture) as, say, ASM #300 (which is an obvious choice.)

So...without further ado, let's nominate 10 books (more if necessary) and start with the project.

My nominees are:

1977-1979: Star Wars #1 (we'll have to be VERY careful to not include reprints and the 35 cent version. Only the newsstand version vs. the Direct version, which does exist!)

1979-1982: Wolverine Ltd. Series #1

1983-1987: Amazing Spiderman #252

1988-1990: Amazing Spiderman #300

1991-1995: New Mutants #98

1991-1995: Batman Adventures #12

1996-2000: Daredevil #1

2001-2005: Amazing Spiderman #36

2006-2010: Wolverine #66

2011-2017: Batman New 52 #1

 

So, feel free to nominate your candidates to track, and whatever books get the most votes, we'll use those (though there is, of course, no harm in including more.)

NOMINATION PERIOD ENDS AT 6 PM PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME ON SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2018. Whatever we have by then, that's what we'll go with.

How are you keeping track of a book bought one month and resold the next?

[cranky's]

1 hour ago, ygogolak said:

How are you keeping track of a book bought one month and resold the next?

Agree.  Heavy hitters like ASM300 get flipped a lot so you have the same copy popping up.  

And why not do one book for every year?  Wouldn't be that much more work.

[RockMyAmadeus]

4 hours ago, ygogolak said:

How are you keeping track of a book bought one month and resold the next?

Just like every other book. This is not a scientific study. This is only a snapshot of the ratio of each version that is available for sale on eBay, on a month to month basis.

If the same copy is "resold" or "reoffered" for sale, then it's a new "sales event." 

[RockMyAmadeus]

4 hours ago, jsilverjanet said:

@RockMyAmadeus thank you for finally contributing something meaniful to the boards  

 

I try to contribute by writing properly, so people don't have to guess what I'm trying to say...

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

2 hours ago, s.krank said:

And why not do one book for every year?  Wouldn't be that much more work.

It is. A lot of work. Counting hundreds of eBay listings gets tedious. 

But anyone who wants to expand it with their own examples I'm sure would be welcomed by those interested.

[RockMyAmadeus]

5 hours ago, jsilverjanet said:

I’d prefer to see Spawn 1 as I think the ratio for that one would be interesting 

I purposely excluded Image. Here's why: Image's newsstand program only lasted a few years, through the mid to late 90s, and then ends. I think 1996-1997 were the last Image newsstands. So, using an Image book to see the changes in ratio over a long period of time wouldn't work, because their newsstand program was so short. It would essentially be a flat line, for those 5 years. 

[jsilverjanet]

1 hour ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

I try to contribute by writing properly, so people don't have to guess what I'm trying to say...

 

Nice

[valiantman]

@RockMyAmadeus great idea!  I'm glad I don't have to do the work. 

When I have done this in the past, sorta randomly, I have focused on books which have been CGC graded, since we not only get a ratio of newsstand to direct, we also get average grades for each type.  Picking the books graded by CGC most often ensures that we have enough of a sample to be useful.  As you mention, there's no "hard science" to it, but it definitely makes sense that if we keep getting a ratio of about 20% for some year, we can be pretty sure that 20% is a good estimate.  It is more work to include the raw copies as well, but there's nothing that keeps us from gathering all the available data (slabbed or raw).  We can slice-and-dice the data by publisher, by CGC or raw, by #1 vs non-#1s, etc.

Looking for representative books by years, it's likely that if it's CGC graded often, then it's probably also available raw often... and that list would look like:

Top 5 CGC Submitted Books By Comic Year

Year	BookName	AllSubs
1977	Star Wars 1	7646
1977	Iron Fist 14	3763
1977	Ms. Marvel 1	3684
1977	Black Panther 1	2764
1977	Marvel Spotlight 32	1741
1978	Spider-Woman 1	2849
1978	X-Men 109	1339
1978	Ms. Marvel 18	1220
1978	X-Men 112	976
1978	Machine Man 1	956
1979	Amazing Spider-Man 194	4173
1979	X-Men 121	2078
1979	Daredevil 158	1999
1979	Marvel Premiere 47	1625
1979	X-Men 120	1452
1980	Savage She-Hulk 1	4098
1980	New Teen Titans 2	3575
1980	X-Men 137	3150
1980	X-Men 129	2434
1980	DC Comics Presents 26	2388
1981	X-Men 141	4203
1981	Daredevil 168	3899
1981	Uncanny X-Men 142	3723
1981	Avengers Annual 10	3410
1981	Uncanny X-Men 143	1440
1982	Wolverine Limited Series 1	12984
1982	Wolverine Limited Series 2	4227
1982	Daredevil 181	3990
1982	Wolverine Limited Series 3	3892
1982	Wolverine Limited Series 4	3512
1983	Amazing Spider-Man 238	4800
1983	Omega Men 3	3617
1983	New Mutants 1	2552
1983	Thor 337	2376
1983	Amazing Spider-Man 239	1752
1984	Marvel Super Heroes Secret Wars 8	11310
1984	Amazing Spider-Man 252	8975
1984	Tales of the Teen Titans 44	3355
1984	Transformers 1	2091
1984	Marvel Super Heroes Secret Wars 1	1886
1985	Web of Spider-Man 1	4469
1985	Saga of the Swamp Thing 37	1505
1985	Crisis on Infinite Earths 7	1491
1985	Crisis on Infinite Earths 1	1423
1985	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 3	1314
1986	X-Factor 6	4433
1986	Batman: The Dark Knight Returns 1	2992
1986	Watchmen 1	2460
1986	Batman: The Dark Knight Returns 4	2064
1986	Punisher Limited Series 1	1897
1987	Uncanny X-Men 221	2269
1987	Punisher 1	1992
1987	Batman 404	1924
1987	Uncanny X-Men 213	1556
1987	Amazing Spider-Man Annual 21	1302
1988	Amazing Spider-Man 300	17116
1988	Wolverine 1	8388
1988	Batman: The Killing Joke nn	5515
1988	Amazing Spider-Man 298	4817
1988	Incredible Hulk 340	4708
1989	Wolverine 10	2645
1989	Amazing Spider-Man 316	2488
1989	Uncanny X-Men 244	2070
1989	Sandman 1	2068
1989	Uncanny X-Men 248	1472
1990	Uncanny X-Men 266	10810
1990	New Mutants 87	7472
1990	Spider-Man 1 Silver Edition	6932
1990	Spider-Man 1	4655
1990	Spider-Man 1 Gold Edition	2631
1991	New Mutants 98	15282
1991	Infinity Gauntlet 1	5040
1991	X-Men 1	3570
1991	X-Force 2	2952
1991	Uncanny X-Men 282	2322
1992	Amazing Spider-Man 361	9873
1992	Spawn 1	9183
1992	Amazing Spider-Man 362	3206
1992	Superman: The Man of Steel 18	2837
1992	X-Force 11	2385
1993	Venom: Lethal Protector 1	4456
1993	Batman Adventures 12	4358
1993	Batman: Vengeance of Bane Special 1	2178
1993	Batman 497	2162
1993	Deadpool 1	2098
1994	Batman Adventures: Mad Love nn	1255
1994	G.I. Joe, A Real American Hero 155	541
1994	Green Lantern v3 #48	517
1994	Batman Adventures Annual 1	479
1994	Green Lantern v3 #50	457
1995	Preacher 1	2450
1995	Witchblade 1	1274
1995	Amazing Spider-Man 400 Die-Cut Cover	638
1995	X-Men: Alpha 1	563
1995	Preacher 2	523
1996	Wolverine 100 Hologram Cover	374
1996	Nightwing 1	371
1996	Preacher 13	359
1996	Superman: The Wedding Album 1 Collector's Edition	301
1996	Kingdom Come 1	270
1997	Deadpool 1	1582
1997	Spawn 1 Black & White Edition	667
1997	Incredible Hulk 449	572
1997	Superman Adventures 5	436
1997	JLA 1	326
1998	Marvel Collectible Classics: Spider-Man 1	656
1998	Daredevil v2 #1	614
1998	Marvel Authentix: Amazing Spider-Man 1	499
1998	What If... 105	484
1998	Marvel Collectible Classics: Spider-Man 2	463
1999	Batman: Harley Quinn nn	1620
1999	Wolverine 145 Nabisco Variant Cover	507
1999	100 Bullets 1	369
1999	Amazing Spider-Man v2 #1	367
1999	Birds of Prey 8	356
2000	Ultimate Spider-Man 1	3057
2000	Ultimate Spider-Man 2	1707
2000	Ultimate Spider-Man 1 Variant Cover	1450
2000	Harley Quinn 1	1413
2000	Ultimate Spider-Man 1 Dynamic Forces Edition	905
2001	Amazing Spider-Man v2 #36	5504
2001	Wolverine: The Origin 1	2977
2001	Wolverine: The Origin 2	1659
2001	Alias 1	1478
2001	Ultimate Spider-Man 5	1229
2002	Batman 608	2263
2002	Wolverine: The Origin 3	1348
2002	Ultimate Spider-Man 1/2	1289
2002	Batman 608 Second Printing	1165
2002	Wolverine: The Origin 4	1043
2003	Walking Dead 1	2952
2003	Batman 612	1383
2003	Walking Dead 2	1355
2003	Walking Dead 3	1189
2003	Superman/Batman 1	1056
2004	NYX 3	3907
2004	Superman 204	1585
2004	Ultimate Fantastic Four 1	991
2004	Walking Dead 4	941
2004	Walking Dead 6	931
2005	Walking Dead 19	2061
2005	All Star Batman & Robin, the Boy Wonder 1	1998
2005	Ultimate Spider-Man 79 Wizard World Chicago Edition	1250
2005	Supergirl 1	952
2005	New Avengers 1 Variant Cover	935
2006	Civil War 1	2355
2006	Amazing Spider-Man 529	1735
2006	Walking Dead 27	1657
2006	Civil War 3 Variant Cover	1212
2006	Wolverine: Origins 1 Wizard World Philadelphia Edit	1178
2007	Captain America 25 Variant Edition	2062
2007	Captain America 25	1909
2007	Captain America 25 Wizard World Los Angeles Editi	1487
2007	Fallen Son: The Death of Captain America 3 Sketch Edition	1267
2007	Amazing Spider-Man 539	969
2008	Hulk 1	985
2008	Walking Dead 53	971
2008	Captain America 34	951
2008	Wolverine v3 #66	923
2008	Hulk 1 Wizard World Los Angeles Editi	895
2009	The Marvels Project 1 Sketch Cover	1971
2009	Amazing Spider-Man 583 Variant Edition	1565
2009	Amazing Spider-Man 607	908
2009	Chew 1	882
2009	Walking Dead 61	853
2010	X-Men 1 Sketch Cover	2289
2010	Avengers 1 Sketch Cover	1489
2010	Wolverine 1 Sketch Edition	589
2010	Uncanny X-Force 1 Sketch Edition	465
2010	I, Zombie 1	431
2011	Batman 1	4537
2011	Ultimate Fallout 4	2283
2011	Amazing Spider-Man 648 Sketch Edition	1371
2011	Justice League 1	1130
2011	Batman 1 Variant Cover	1128
2012	Saga 1	3337
2012	Thief of Thieves 1	1848
2012	Walking Dead 100	1499
2012	Walking Dead 100 Chromium Edition	1404
2012	Batman 0 We Can Be Heroes Edition	1231
2013	Amazing Spider-Man 700	3519
2013	Walking Dead 108	2061
2013	East of West 1	1442
2013	Superior Spider-Man 1	1157
2013	Walking Dead 109 Sketch Edition	837
2014	Outcast 1	4232
2014	Edge of Spider-Verse 2	2928
2014	Amazing Spider-Man 4	1963
2014	Amazing Spider-Man 1	1837
2014	Walking Dead 127	1258
2015	Star Wars 1	1431
2015	Spider-Gwen 1	1165
2015	Darth Vader 3	1100
2015	Star Wars 1 Sketch Edition	818
2015	Star Wars 4 Boba Fett Variant Cover	711
2016	Harley Quinn 1	960
2016	All Star Batman 1	933
2016	All Star Batman 1 Jock Variant Cover	853
2016	Seven to Eternity 1	822
2016	Harley Quinn 1 Sienkiewicz Variant Cover	746
2017	Totally Awesome Hulk 22	1676
2017	Batman 21	1196
2017	Redneck 1	740
2017	Flash 21	674
2017	Teen Titans 12	623

We don't need all of these, but if we only need 10 or 20 books, it would take a pretty solid argument to pick something other than what's on this list (such as purposefully wanting to find an Ultraverse book, for example).

Edited September 7, 2018 by valiantman

[divad]

I'll just go with whatever @valiantman says as the truth! 

Edited September 7, 2018 by divad

[bffnut]

At first glance, I thought tracking graded copies would be preferable to raw, as a sort of control from counting the same issue twice. I used the same methodology when trying to determine the ratio of black vs. white mature warning labels Walking Dead #1.

However, I am concerned using graded copies would skew the data because, for the most part, I think higher grade copies are more likely to be submitted for grading and direct market copies tend to be higher grade than newsstand copies. 

Maybe, to control for that bias, you could select books that have a high value accross all grades.

[fastballspecial]

I like this good idea.

I am going to suggest from books from the other end as well as some last issues.

Conan 275
ASM 25 V2
ASM 36 V2
Thor 25 V2
Hulk 441
Hulk 449
Lobo 64
Hulk 271
SW 107
X-Men 423
Alf 48
MOTU 13
 

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

On 9/7/2018 at 2:15 AM, bababooey said:

I agree about first issues but I think he's choosing books by era and 1996-2000 doesn't have many books to choose from...maybe DD 380, the last issue would work? 

Also, for the record, this data will be useless and prove nothing!!!!  

Hulk 449 would probably be a better bet, as I imagine there will be more of those on the market as speculation increases that the Thunderbolts will appear in the movies soonish.