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November HA OA auction
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493 posts in this topic

11 hours ago, pemart1966 said:

I think that this hobby (art/comics) is heading for a massive correction probably sooner than later.  Stratospheric prices; a hobby that's NEVER really experienced a significant downturn or correction.  Let's think about this:

1.  How long it takes you to earn say $5K; $10K; $20K and up AFTER TAX dollars to buy a rare comic or piece of art?

2.  A decrease in the number of new collectors.

3.  Old time collectors that don't/can't collect any more because it's gotten to expensive or they have everything they want and don't actively collect anymore.

4.  Speculators that are currently fueling prices to some extent and that will probably run for the door as soon as the next economic downturn occurs.

5.  Old time collectors that are still active but will be looking to cash out sometime soon as they are now entering their late 50s - early 60s.  We've already had several large cash outs in the hobby and that's just the tip of the iceberg.  We will all cash out.  Either you cash out while you're living or when you die.  You don't take it with you.

There's a perfect storm brewing here for a massive correction.  Not everything will suffer to the same extent because the cream always rises to the top but there will be blood.

Mitch makes some good points.  The "good times" don't last forever - any where.  

There will be people left holding the bag when it gets ugly...and it will get ugly...

Other factors include the rising cost of just buying OA/GA...many auction houses are now charging sales tax, additional  shipping costs, going to a convention such as SDCC or NYCC costs more both for the dealers and the attendee's which makes it more difficult than the old days of easy buying.  If you buy something from Ha or comic connect  in order to break even it has to go  UP by 10/20% assuming you want to get the highest price and that is another cost factor. My concern is for the short term-I want to make a profit speculator who runs are the sign of a downturn and makes it worse, the person who does not care whether they are buying FF5 or FF255 at 9.9...it is all the same....just like a stock or bond or whatever. The connection especially in childhood to great memories of buying comics, being amazed, waiting for every Tuesday for the new comics to arrive, is hard to replace. I cannot put my head around a 650K marvel comic book cover, unless its a  ASM1 just because two rich dudes have big egos does not create actual value. That is not about the piece itself, it's about winning at any price. These crazy sale prices are bad for the long run of the hobby, and think about the guy who bought and attempted to resell, how many people out there have the ability to pay that price, let alone agree that the price paid is the true value. I repeat, buy carefully and buy what you really want to own as a true comic/OA collector....and don't  buy under  the belief that somebody is gonna pay more. This way when downturn comes  you own OA/GA that you can say, I love it..and don't care what is  the  market price...that is the way to be a winner here.

Edited by Mmehdy
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"At some point in the near or distant future, prices will be adversely effected to either a large, medium , or small degree. This will occur on all, some, or barely any fields of collecting for either a permanent or temporary amount of time."

-Savy art collector, any point between 1982-2018

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27 minutes ago, zhamlau said:

"At some point in the near or distant future, prices will be adversely effected to either a large, medium , or small degree. This will occur on all, some, or barely any fields of collecting for either a permanent or temporary amount of time."

-Savy art collector, any point between 1982-2018

Are you tth2 in disguise? :baiting:  

Given that it's November, here are some reminders that the trend - even ones that span years/decades/generations - is your friend, but only until it ends:  :preach: 

First, nothing lasts forever...even cold November Rain.

Second...presented without explanation:

1281139130_Turkeychart.png.0e3e697c309b60011ca55b78d41f479c.png

Edited by delekkerste
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6 hours ago, delekkerste said:

 

First, nothing lasts forever...even cold November Rain.

Second...presented without explanation:

1281139130_Turkeychart.png.0e3e697c309b60011ca55b78d41f479c.png

 

 

My Retort!!!

 

First off.....

GbpXJzH.gif.ecfbfe1381ab05a124a08cd05c3afe10.gif

 

 

And in conclusion!!

1253711530_bangfark.gif.15b43c1434db4799f082984f66e1c28b.gif

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On 11/6/2018 at 4:31 PM, glendgold said:

I'm very curious about the ASM 18 page hitting $216K about 10 days out from the auction.  I'm having trouble wrapping my head around a buyer going with that strategy. 

Secret reserve revealed to be...$210K (hammer - $252K w/juice)!  

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42 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Secret reserve revealed to be...$210K (hammer - $252K w/juice)!  

Yeah. 

It's an odd page.  Congrats to The Cabal member(s) who successfully buys and/or sells and/or both. 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, glendgold said:

Yeah. 

It's an odd page.  Congrats to The Cabal member(s) who successfully buys and/or sells and/or both. 

 

 

I have always loved that page since reading the issue in a reprint many years ago.  The whole story is fascinating but you gotta love the end blurb which gives an interesting window into the Lee & Ditko creative process and differences going on at the time.   One of my regrets is forgetting to bid on a page from this issue in which Spidey opts not to fight and instead calls for help from a pay phone.   I later heard it went for a song I would gladly have sung,   The reasons it went low may have been the same reasons I liked it so much.

Edited by bluechip
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23 hours ago, delekkerste said:

Secret reserve revealed to be...$210K (hammer - $252K w/juice)!  

Did that asterisk just show up?  I didn't remember seeing it before.

 

 

 

Edited by glendgold
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I don't subscribe to the 'buy what you like and even if the value goes down to zero you are ok' philosophy. 

Once art got over $1000 a page, it is an investment. It's not just fun drawings on paper-hobby purchase, not for me at least. 

It's money that belongs to my family in the end and I need to be careful with it. 

I do not see a doomsday scenario of boomers aging out and dumping collections. I think people collect differently now, than they did 20 and 30 years ago. 

I think 25 years ago with cheap art prevalent collectors still spent all their disposable income on comic art, they just got so much more for their money-- so a guy who loved Kirby might have 10-15 Kirby pages. Now with prices so high, the collection who wants Kirby gets 1-2. 

I also think a lot more people collect comics and comic art today, than 25 years ago. 

It's not that ALL comics and comic art will always go up-- market taste and other factors including purchase price etc will have a large bearing on whether one profits or loses when he sells. 

But I think in the next 20 years, top tier comic art (and we could discuss how to define that) will continue to rise to heights unthought of today. 

Just as Warhol and other art is now $50-100 Mil (and DaVinci hit $500 mil!) a great, vintage Kirby cover for $2-3 mil seems plausible, right, and inevitable. 

Edited by artcollector9
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2 hours ago, artcollector9 said:

I don't subscribe to the 'buy what you like and even if the value goes down to zero you are ok' philosophy. 

Once art got over $1000 a page, it is an investment. It's not just fun drawings on paper-hobby purchase, not for me at least. 

It's money that belongs to my family in the end and I need to be careful with it. 

I do not see a doomsday scenario of boomers aging out and dumping collections. I think people collect differently now, than they did 20 and 30 years ago. 

I think 25 years ago with cheap art prevalent collectors still spent all their disposable income on comic art, they just got so much more for their money-- so a guy who loved Kirby might have 10-15 Kirby pages. Now with prices so high, the collection who wants Kirby gets 1-2. 

I also think a lot more people collect comics and comic art today, than 25 years ago. 

It's not that ALL comics and comic art will always go up-- market taste and other factors including purchase price etc will have a large bearing on whether one profits or loses when he sells. 

But I think in the next 20 years, top tier comic art (and we could discuss how to define that) will continue to rise to heights unthought of today. 

Just as Warhol and other art is now $50-100 Mil (and DaVinci hit $500 mil!) a great, vintage Kirby cover for $2-3 mil seems plausible, right, and inevitable. 

 I agree with this statement. I can easily see prime Kirby covers go into the millions.

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3 hours ago, artcollector9 said:

I don't subscribe to the 'buy what you like and even if the value goes down to zero you are ok' philosophy. 

Once art got over $1000 a page, it is an investment. It's not just fun drawings on paper-hobby purchase, not for me at least. 

It's money that belongs to my family in the end and I need to be careful with it. 

I do not see a doomsday scenario of boomers aging out and dumping collections. I think people collect differently now, than they did 20 and 30 years ago. 

I think 25 years ago with cheap art prevalent collectors still spent all their disposable income on comic art, they just got so much more for their money-- so a guy who loved Kirby might have 10-15 Kirby pages. Now with prices so high, the collection who wants Kirby gets 1-2. 

I also think a lot more people collect comics and comic art today, than 25 years ago. 

It's not that ALL comics and comic art will always go up-- market taste and other factors including purchase price etc will have a large bearing on whether one profits or loses when he sells. 

But I think in the next 20 years, top tier comic art (and we could discuss how to define that) will continue to rise to heights unthought of today. 

Just as Warhol and other art is now $50-100 Mil (and DaVinci hit $500 mil!) a great, vintage Kirby cover for $2-3 mil seems plausible, right, and inevitable. 

I would say the prices for comic art are insane but then I'd have to come up with a whole new word for what I've seen people spend on modern art by flavor-of-the-moment hucksters.

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10 hours ago, artcollector9 said:

I don't subscribe to the 'buy what you like and even if the value goes down to zero you are ok' philosophy. 

Once art got over $1000 a page, it is an investment. It's not just fun drawings on paper-hobby purchase, not for me at least. 

It's money that belongs to my family in the end and I need to be careful with it. 

I do not see a doomsday scenario of boomers aging out and dumping collections. I think people collect differently now, than they did 20 and 30 years ago. 

I think 25 years ago with cheap art prevalent collectors still spent all their disposable income on comic art, they just got so much more for their money-- so a guy who loved Kirby might have 10-15 Kirby pages. Now with prices so high, the collection who wants Kirby gets 1-2. 

I also think a lot more people collect comics and comic art today, than 25 years ago. 

It's not that ALL comics and comic art will always go up-- market taste and other factors including purchase price etc will have a large bearing on whether one profits or loses when he sells. 

But I think in the next 20 years, top tier comic art (and we could discuss how to define that) will continue to rise to heights unthought of today. 

Just as Warhol and other art is now $50-100 Mil (and DaVinci hit $500 mil!) a great, vintage Kirby cover for $2-3 mil seems plausible, right, and inevitable. 

the  problem with that is there are only a handful of people in the world, than can afford a Warhol...as prices rise the number of available buyers thins....once the top two bidders are sidelined, that is when the decline occurs....its gravity....so as time goes by the odds of 50 collectors paying 2-3 million are slim and none.

Edited by Mmehdy
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13 hours ago, artcollector9 said:

I also think a lot more people collect comics and comic art today, than 25 years ago. 

Is this anyone else's opinion?  I thought everyone generally thought that the comic buying population had cratered--especially from 1993.  I can see some old buyers coming back, but have that many come back/been added due to investment potential or movie popularity?

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On 10/31/2018 at 1:12 PM, delekkerste said:

The early bidding has been spirited, but, given that less than 10% of lots have hit the lower end of FMV, that's about all you can say at this point.  I'm sure people are still thrill-bidding and marker bidding with little risk of consequences at this point.  

That said, nobody pays attention to the short-term gyrations of the stock market when it comes to art & collectibles markets.  Remember in the last cycle that the S&P 500 topped in October 2007 and the OA market was not just sizzling, but, absolutely molten through the summer of 2008, while Damien Hirst's solo sale in September 2008 marked the top of the fine art market for the next several years (most of those Hirst's are still underwater, LOL).  

In other words, it will take at least 9-12 months of stocks being in a downtrend before it's likely to alter anyone's bidding behavior.*

 

 

 

*Also, given how high OA prices are now vs. 2000 or 2007, for anyone who thinks that OA prices have not become more "financialized" and more sensitive to gyrations in other asset prices (thinking that OA prices will either not be affected by the next bear market in stocks and/or real estate or, even worse, thinking that they will act in a counter-trend manner and actually go up in price), I've got several bridges in the NYC area to sell you. 

Mmehdy said...The  problem with that is there are only a handful of people in the world, than can afford a Warhol...as prices rise the number of available buyers thins....once the top two bidders are sidelined, that is when the decline occurs....its gravity....so as time goes by the odds of 50 collectors paying 2-3 million are slim and none.

 

I am always impressed by the number of people who can drop thousands of dollars on decorative fine art, or illustration art.  I lean toward a continuation of higher prices on all gold, silver, and bronze comic book art.  One thing is, there is a built-in (not artist or gallery driven) limitation on the number of original pieces for any title or character, by any artist.

This creates a confidence for the buyers.  David

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