November HA OA auction
3 3

495 posts in this topic

645 posts
On 10/31/2018 at 1:12 PM, delekkerste said:

The early bidding has been spirited, but, given that less than 10% of lots have hit the lower end of FMV, that's about all you can say at this point.  I'm sure people are still thrill-bidding and marker bidding with little risk of consequences at this point.  

That said, nobody pays attention to the short-term gyrations of the stock market when it comes to art & collectibles markets.  Remember in the last cycle that the S&P 500 topped in October 2007 and the OA market was not just sizzling, but, absolutely molten through the summer of 2008, while Damien Hirst's solo sale in September 2008 marked the top of the fine art market for the next several years (most of those Hirst's are still underwater, LOL).  

In other words, it will take at least 9-12 months of stocks being in a downtrend before it's likely to alter anyone's bidding behavior.*

 

 

 

*Also, given how high OA prices are now vs. 2000 or 2007, for anyone who thinks that OA prices have not become more "financialized" and more sensitive to gyrations in other asset prices (thinking that OA prices will either not be affected by the next bear market in stocks and/or real estate or, even worse, thinking that they will act in a counter-trend manner and actually go up in price), I've got several bridges in the NYC area to sell you. 

Mmehdy said...The  problem with that is there are only a handful of people in the world, than can afford a Warhol...as prices rise the number of available buyers thins....once the top two bidders are sidelined, that is when the decline occurs....its gravity....so as time goes by the odds of 50 collectors paying 2-3 million are slim and none.

 

I am always impressed by the number of people who can drop thousands of dollars on decorative fine art, or illustration art.  I lean toward a continuation of higher prices on all gold, silver, and bronze comic book art.  One thing is, there is a built-in (not artist or gallery driven) limitation on the number of original pieces for any title or character, by any artist.

This creates a confidence for the buyers.  David

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,085 posts
6 hours ago, aokartman said:

I am always impressed by the number of people who can drop thousands of dollars on decorative fine art, or illustration art.  I lean toward a continuation of higher prices on all gold, silver, and bronze comic book art.  One thing is, there is a built-in (not artist or gallery driven) limitation on the number of original pieces for any title or character, by any artist.

This creates a confidence for the buyers.  David

Don't count on it. The long term prognossis is not good. This is a niche hobby with prices heavy weighted on sentimentality. As the sentimental people get older and find other things to spend  $ on, or die off, those prices can't be maintained. It's like musical chairs: whose going to be left standing when the music stops? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5,401 posts
10 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

the  problem with that is there are only a handful of people in the world, than can afford a Warhol...as prices rise the number of available buyers thins....once the top two bidders are sidelined, that is when the decline occurs....its gravity....so as time goes by the odds of 50 collectors paying 2-3 million are slim and none.

You use to say, quite forcefully, that one cannot overpay for a "masterpiece". In the context of comics/comic art. So you still believe that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42,505 posts
32 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

Don't count on it. The long term prognossis is not good. This is a niche hobby with prices heavy weighted on sentimentality. As the sentimental people get older and find other things to spend  $ on, or die off, those prices can't be maintained. It's like musical chairs: whose going to be left standing when the music stops? 

I think we're going to have to see the death of the the underlying IP driving pop culture before we see the tempo even begin to slow, much less stop, especially where it pertains to key pieces in the history of the characters that are driving current global marketing, entertainment and licensing-based commerce. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
793 posts
9 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

The only way it's going to happen, IMO, is if real moneyed interests get into it in a big way - not just the current handful of usual suspects,

I like all the stuff you said, but I'd add this: even though I think his work is genius, I can't think of any Kirby artwork that's yet been sold, or that's 100% known to exist, that would sell for $2-3 million any time soon.  

However if any of the pre-65 Marvel art does turn up, meaning the covers to the various origin issues, those are pretty good candidates for the seven figure club. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4,948 posts
3 hours ago, Nexus said:

You use to say, quite forcefully, that one cannot overpay for a "masterpiece". In the context of comics/comic art. So you still believe that?

I still do, but that does not mean you are gonna get your money back..or that it will go up....just be happy you own and enjoy it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,322 posts
2 hours ago, delekkerste said:

maybe that's not for another 15-20 years

I am sticking to my earlier predictions on the "Death of OA" timeline - middle-tier Bronze Age starts softening first in about 5-7 years. Copper and early 90s still have about 15 years on them.

Middle and low tier Silver is a little trickier to predict because of the scarcity issues (art was destroyed). But I can see Silver DC softening first before Marvel.

Also, tricky to predict is the mid-2000s "renaissance" art. Because a lot of those readers were already aged up. Maybe Ultimate Spider-Man or Blackest Night were on kids and teens radars, respectively. Runaways maybe to a lesser degree (but the bad quality of its TV adaptation has probably squashed some of that enthusiasm.) But I think a lot of other hits in that period were for adult readers.

And of course, as others have pointed out, with prices as high as they've gotten, any economic downturns will be speed bumps on these generational issues.

But across all eras, A-level's gonna A-level.

Edited by BCarter27

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4,948 posts
3 hours ago, delekkerste said:

I agree - the whole mentality of this hobby has changed, by necessity, with the price inflation of the past 20 years or so.  It's not only that someone could buy 10-15 Kirby pages back in the day vs. 1-2 now, it's also that one could afford to branch out a bit more.  A few Kirby pages, a couple of Ditko ASM pages, a BWS Conan page, a Wrightson ST page, an EC complete story...nowadays people have had to specialize a lot more, which is contributing to a lot of things starting to fall by the wayside.  

I don't know if $1K was the dividing line between this being just a hobby and an investment as well, but, let's face it, $1K doesn't take you very far these days.  I hear a lot of complaints that you can't get anything good for $10K or $15K or $25K or $50K or $100K depending on who you talk to.  And, yeah, at these prices, it's real money - it's hard for most people to say that they'd be cool with taking a big hit when they're laying out that kind of cash.  Now, sure, there is still a lot of cool stuff you can collect for 3 and 4 figures, and many people in the hobby have collections that are worth 4 figures or low 5 figures and these are definitely still numbers where it's possible to treat it as mad money and not be worried if the market goes south.  But, for the better vintage stuff...we have to be realistic about what these valuations mean for the people who collect them.  

I'm skeptical that great comic art is going to hit the heights that you and some others think will happen.  Not that it's impossible, but, I just don't see the inevitability of it when it seems like the majority of big ticket sales these days is moving Kirby cover X from Cabal Dealer A to Cabal Dealer B.  The only way it's going to happen, IMO, is if real moneyed interests get into it in a big way - not just the current handful of usual suspects, Cabal dealers and the occasional oddball rich guy here and there.  So far, it hasn't happened on anywhere near the kind of scale needed.  But, I think comic art is tricky - a lot of it is nostalgia and sentimentality, and I'm skeptical that just keeping the stories alive in cinema and TV creates the kind of maddening passion and obsession that buying and reading stories one issue, one month at a time when we were all younger and our attentions weren't splintered in an infinite number of directions that they are nowadays, did for us.  I think fine art is different - it's less about nostalgia and sentimentality and more about education, curation and the marketing machine, so, it's not really dependent on people being exposed to it at a certain time of their lives.  As long as there are rich people, they will be drawn to fine art or fine art will be drawn to them; that isn't the case with comic or illustration art at the present time.  But, we shall see what the future holds.

Oh, I agree that there are more comic and comic art collectors these days.  There are a lot fewer people buying new comics off the stands than there used to be, but, due to the magic of technology and global communications, there's no question that there's more money and serious collectors these days than there used to be. That said, what matters for the long-term health of the hobby is what happens from here going forward both in terms of the numbers of newer collectors vs. old and how much they bring to the table in terms of resources (e.g., even if there were more newer collectors coming in than older collectors coming out, if they only have 50% as much money to spend on this hobby, on average, that's not a good situation).  My fear is that that, not only will there be fewer younger collectors coming into our hobby in the coming years due to demographics, cultural changes and high prices, but, they will have less money to spend than previous generations AND also be interested in different things. Not all of them, of course, but, enough that I suspect eventually it's going to get very tough for our hobby at some point.  With luck, maybe that's not for another 15-20 years, but, the farther out we go, the more I feel it's going to be an inevitability.

You nail it down when focusing on the "younger collectors" coming Into OA/GA. The dealer to dealer sale is what has generated the historic rise in OA prices and a few..are buying into the hype that have the money. You can see prices only hyped so much that even the big OA whales are gonna buckle...then the only safeguard is dealer to dealer  sales to keep the market afloat and when a couple of them blink..its over and REAL value takes over. Again, buy what you really want and enjoy..Dont buy on the grounds that everybody else wants it or its gonna go UP forever. You will be very sorry you did. The best attitude to have is that I am going to have to keep this piece for the rest of my life..do I love it enough to say who cares what the market price is up or down...that is the true test of  masterpiece ownership. That does not mean you cannot sell or trade or upgrade your masterpieces   down the road, but just be satisfied that you don't have to look at the GPA or OA price guide every week. If the new OA/GA collectors come in as true collectors then that will lengthen the price stability of OA/GA/SA...so look at the makeup of the new collector..is the new collector buying widgets or real comic books, is the new collector buying because somebody is gonna more down the line or is it because they are true collectors. For 50 years OA/GA/SA has been on a straight line trajectory upwards overall..never assume that will last forever. Without that childhood bond, of enjoying great adventures as you were growing up..connecting with that material and going weekly to the drug store with your friends, we must look at WHO these new replacement collectors are...and what they will do when a downturn occurs...will they hang on because they love comic art or will they jump the  sinking ship like rats the minute it becomes apparent that it is not gonna sell for more...your fate, my fate is in these hands of the future collectors in terms of retaining value for what we paid in the past....the only solution for the true collector is be true to yourself when you buy and enjoy it.

Edited by Mmehdy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
326 posts

I'm not so concerned about younger collectors coming in. Who is going to buy a $75,000 Ditko Spider Man page? Not a young collector. I think the comic art market has already fractured into many sub groups like many collectible hobbies do. The collector who buys $150 sketches and pages has nothing to do with the collector who buys and sells $10,000-$100,000 pieces. If today's $500K Kirby FF cover is going to sell in 10 years, it's not going to a young collector. 

I think that art is much more an investment vehicle today than it was 50 years ago (except for the very rich who always bought art, along with real estate and stocks and bonds). 

I think if a 34 year old successful guy wants to part $250,000 in an investment for several years, comic art is so much more appealing than more traditional types of art (old master drawings, still lifes, etc). 

I don't think the collector who buys a page from Hulk 5 today  bought the comic off the stand. I  don't think it's a nostalgia purchase. I think he sees that the source material for the Marvel universe is rare, interesting, cool, and desirable. I think he recognizes that it is a 'good investment' with wide public recognition and with 'legs'. In 75 years Disney will insure that people will know who the Hulk is, just like they know who Mickey Mouse is. There's no doubt in my mind that the $35,000 Hulk 5 page today is going to be desirable, collectable and more valuable in the next 50 years. It's just a matter of how much. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,835 posts

“But, I think comic art is tricky - a lot of it is nostalgia and sentimentality, and I'm skeptical that just keeping the stories alive in cinema and TV creates the kind of maddening passion and obsession that buying and reading stories one issue, one month at a time when we were all younger and our attentions weren't splintered in an infinite number of directions that they are nowadays, did for us.  I think fine art is different - it's less about nostalgia and sentimentality and more about education, curation and the marketing machine, so, it's not really dependent on people being exposed to it at a certain time of their lives.  As long as there are rich people, they will be drawn to fine art or fine art will be drawn to them; that isn't the case with comic or illustration art at the present time.  But, we shall see what the future holds.

 

one thing that art art has that’s is really only starting in comics is scholarship; True critical writing that places comics and comic art in a historical niche that’s not (at least attempts not to be) bias. Art has had this for centuries, comics Only decades, and not  many at that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
326 posts
29 minutes ago, suspense39 said:

“But, I think comic art is tricky - a lot of it is nostalgia and sentimentality, and I'm skeptical that just keeping the stories alive in cinema and TV creates the kind of maddening passion and obsession that buying and reading stories one issue, one month at a time when we were all younger and our attentions weren't splintered in an infinite number of directions that they are nowadays, did for us.  I think fine art is different - it's less about nostalgia and sentimentality and more about education, curation and the marketing machine, so, it's not really dependent on people being exposed to it at a certain time of their lives.  As long as there are rich people, they will be drawn to fine art or fine art will be drawn to them; that isn't the case with comic or illustration art at the present time.  But, we shall see what the future holds.

 

one thing that art art has that’s is really only starting in comics is scholarship; True critical writing that places comics and comic art in a historical niche that’s not (at least attempts not to be) bias. Art has had this for centuries, comics Only decades, and not  many at that.

good point. I think we are getting there. There are more and more museum shows. Lucas' museum of narrative art is going to highlight comic art as a bone fide narrative medium. 

Rock music has much the same uphill battle, which it's winning. The release of the Beatles White Album this weekend  has been met with much interesting scholarship and reconsideration of the record that at one time was only a 'pop' record by a 'pop' group. For example there was a three day symposium at Monmouth University on the importance of the record in a historical and sociological context!

I think the sale of Master Race is great for the hobby and to your point- to increase the mainstream acceptance of comic art as a bode fide medium of artistic expression and in fact excellence. 

I think this is true (that comics are a great art form) so I am bullish on comic art as an investment as well. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1,835 posts
6 hours ago, artcollector9 said:

good point. I think we are getting there. There are more and more museum shows. Lucas' museum of narrative art is going to highlight comic art as a bone fide narrative medium. 

Rock music has much the same uphill battle, which it's winning. The release of the Beatles White Album this weekend  has been met with much interesting scholarship and reconsideration of the record that at one time was only a 'pop' record by a 'pop' group. For example there was a three day symposium at Monmouth University on the importance of the record in a historical and sociological context!

I think the sale of Master Race is great for the hobby and to your point- to increase the mainstream acceptance of comic art as a bode fide medium of artistic expression and in fact excellence. 

I think this is true (that comics are a great art form) so I am bullish on comic art as an investment as well. 

Not to get too of topic, but a good friend of mine wrote this book on the Beatles which places them as the starting point of art rock....I highly recommend it Beatles fan or not.

 

https://www.amazon.com/Magic-Circle-Beatles-Art-Rock-Records/dp/9491677438/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1541994210&sr=8-1&keywords=Jan+Tumlir

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12,207 posts

Closes this week and nothing I am hoping to take a run at is crazy high. YET!

stuff always runs up at the end of the online bidding. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52,815 posts
10 hours ago, batman_fan said:

Closes this week and nothing I am hoping to take a run at is crazy high. YET!

stuff always runs up at the end of the online bidding. 

Man, your definition of "crazy high" is very different from mine.  I'm blown away by many of the prices already.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12,207 posts
37 minutes ago, tth2 said:

Man, your definition of "crazy high" is very different from mine.  I'm blown away by many of the prices already.

It has to be what you are watching.  Stuff I am interested in like a lesser title cover is at 1/2 where I expect it to close at and all the Peanuts strips are also at about 1/2 where they will close (some 1/3).  The X-men 10 splash can't be close to the final hammer, same for the Fantastic Four 83 splash but maybe I am wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
215 posts

Does the Platinum format annoy anyone else? As crazy as it sounds, I used to make the time to follow all of the art lots in a signature auction. But there's no way I'm taking three days out of my life to watch & bid on comic art (four, if you follow the weekly auction, too). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24,413 posts
28 minutes ago, DJRome said:

Does the Platinum format annoy anyone else? As crazy as it sounds, I used to make the time to follow all of the art lots in a signature auction. But there's no way I'm taking three days out of my life to watch & bid on comic art (four, if you follow the weekly auction, too). 

I really like it actually.    The splashy stuff makes for fun viewing, and the lower value stuff I only want to watch or bid on certain lots.    I used to hate sitting through 50 lots I had no interest in either watching, or bidding on, just to get to something interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42,505 posts
39 minutes ago, DJRome said:

Does the Platinum format annoy anyone else? As crazy as it sounds, I used to make the time to follow all of the art lots in a signature auction. But there's no way I'm taking three days out of my life to watch & bid on comic art (four, if you follow the weekly auction, too). 

Platinum goes quick, at least for the art section. It's only 44 lots. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22,551 posts
42 minutes ago, DJRome said:

Does the Platinum format annoy anyone else? As crazy as it sounds, I used to make the time to follow all of the art lots in a signature auction. But there's no way I'm taking three days out of my life to watch & bid on comic art (four, if you follow the weekly auction, too). 

Nobody I've talked to is a fan of it.  When the bulk of the art is on one day, it's easy to remember and done in one shot.  I remember there were some unhappy consignors on that first Platinum Night auction last year (?) in NYC, because a lot of people had simply been unaware of the auction starting a day earlier than normal and missed out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
3 3