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Well, that was FAST.....
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20 posts in this topic

53 minutes ago, Gotham Kid said:

here's a freshly graded copy for ya ..

https://www.comicconnect.com/bookDetail.php?id=794592

 

Beauty!  Is Pep 22 the last of the 1st appearance mega grails to be considered truly “rare” by census standards? Both AA 16. MC 1 are approaching Action 1/Tec 27 numbers ( Flash 1  has passed them ) 

Edited by Chicago Boy
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On 10/7/2018 at 8:34 AM, Chicago Boy said:

Flash Comics #1 topping out at 76 copies in the census. Wasn’t it not too long ago ( within 2 years ) that it topped the census in the 30’s ???

And how many of those copies have been cracked out and resubmitted for an anticipated grade bump without the earlier census entry being removed?

Food for thought! hm

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55 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:
On 10/7/2018 at 6:34 AM, Chicago Boy said:

Flash Comics #1 topping out at 76 copies in the census. Wasn’t it not too long ago ( within 2 years ) that it topped the census in the 30’s ???

And how many of those copies have been cracked out and resubmitted for an anticipated grade bump without the earlier census entry being removed?

Food for thought! hm

+1

Exactly my thoughts also.  (thumbsu

Of course, on the other hand, this apparent reduced population count would also be offset by the number of raw copies still residing in private collections and haven't come anywhere close to a CGC grading table yet.  hm

Edited by lou_fine
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3 hours ago, Cat-Man_America said:

And how many of those copies have been cracked out and resubmitted for an anticipated grade bump without the earlier census entry being removed?

Food for thought! hm

My guess on a book like this would be few if any.  Doesn’t make sense if you’re doing the cpr thing to artificially inflate the census.  If you’re planning to sell the improved book you want it to seem rare, so you’d turn the old label in.  It’s in your self interest to do so.

Now on a super common book like hulk 181 I’m sure the census is hopelessly confounded.

Edited by szavisca
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2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

+1

Exactly my thoughts also.  (thumbsu

Of course, on the other hand, this apparent reduced population count would also be offset by the number of raw copies still residing in private collections and haven't come anywhere close to a CGC grading table yet.  hm

Well stated! However, using the CGC census to estimate rarity involves more slight of hand than other hand.  I'm curious as too what happens when collectors start to realize just how complicated it is to accurately estimate known numbers of existing books in any scarcity index.

IMO, it's reasonable to assume that the vast majority of high value, high grade GA books have been discovered and encapsulated. There will be fewer and fewer pristine (unrestored) high grade pedigree collections discovered down the road; that is the only safe prediction I'm willing to make. 

Conversely, the numbers for mid & low grades will always be less predictable for a variety of reasons, including limited interest in secure third party grading due to age related damage and/or undisclosed condition issues such as amateur restoration. That translates to less buyer, seller and auction house enthusiasm for handling ...and guaranteeing... these less profitable lower grade raw books.

Also, I'm convinced that the "offset" is much less predictable.  According to Cat's Law of Manipulative Census Information ( :wink: ), any extrapolation based on presumed quantities becomes less plausible when known copies are a) randomly miscounted through undisclosed resubmissions, and/or B) grading/encapsulation is conducted through other third party grading services and ignored by the CGC's "proprietory" census.

Alas, too much caffeine today, ...that's my excuse and I'm sticking to it! :headbang:

Edited by Cat-Man_America
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59 minutes ago, szavisca said:

My guess on a book like this would be few if any.  Doesn’t make sense if you’re doing the cpr thing to artificially inflate the census.  If you’re planning to sell the improved book you want it to seem rare, so you’d turn the old label in.  It’s in your self interest to do so.

Now on a super common book like hulk 181 I’m sure the census is hopelessly conflated.

You are talking about logic in relation to an individual seller's motivations.  Sadly, folks tend to do illogical things that aren't in their own self-interest all the time. 

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AA 16. Flash 1. Whiz 2 (1) over the last 2 years have jumped up in census numbers. I think that has contributed more than anything to the Overatreet ranking drop of Alan Scott.  Pep 22 is the only mega grail that I can think of that still has relatively low census numbers.  Although i know of 1 or 2 recently that have been discovered. 

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21 hours ago, szavisca said:

My guess on a book like this would be few if any.  Doesn’t make sense if you’re doing the cpr thing to artificially inflate the census.  If you’re planning to sell the improved book you want it to seem rare, so you’d turn the old label in.  It’s in your self interest to do so.

^^

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16 minutes ago, Gotham Kid said:
21 hours ago, szavisca said:

My guess on a book like this would be few if any.  Doesn’t make sense if you’re doing the cpr thing to artificially inflate the census.  If you’re planning to sell the improved book you want it to seem rare, so you’d turn the old label in.  It’s in your self interest to do so.

^^

And from what I've been told by one person who does the CPR game, it's best to turn the book in fully intact in its original slab.

Especially if you are doing this as a pre-screen for pressing as it kind of sets the floor on the grade and then almost guarantees a higher grade as it's kind of hard for them to justify charging you for something if it doesn't end up giving you any benefits. hm  

Sad to say, but it looks like it has come down to money for everybody along the line as long as you play the game in the way they want you to play it.  :frown:

Edited by lou_fine
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3 hours ago, domuhnator said:

More fun 73 is under 50 graded copies. Only 30 blue.

Forgot about MF 73. 49 copies. I personally know of a couple raw.  Good call but still Hovering around Whiz 2 (1)  This is another book I think the census has seen major increase in the last 24 months ....

Edited by Chicago Boy
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7 hours ago, lou_fine said:

And from what I've been told by one person who does the CPR game, it's best to turn the book in fully intact in its original slab.

Especially if you are doing this as a pre-screen for pressing as it kind of sets the floor on the grade and then almost guarantees a higher grade as it's kind of hard for them to justify charging you for something if it doesn't end up giving you any benefitshm  

Sad to say, but it looks like it has come down to money for everybody along the line as long as you play the game in the way they want you to play it.  :frown:

But that this were true!

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I looked up a few megas so I’ll put the #’s here.

Cgc total census numbers 10/10/18

Action Comics #1 - 69 copies 

Superman #1 - 143 copies 

Detective Comics #27 - 68 Copies

Batman #1 - 252 copies  

Captain America comics #1 - 164 copies 

Marvel Comics #1 - 61 copies

All Star comics #8 - 166 copies 

Sensation Comics #1 - 91 copies

Wonder Woman #1 - 159 copies  

Flash comics #1 - 77 copies 

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4 hours ago, Knightsofold said:

 

I looked up a few megas so I’ll put the #’s here.

Cgc total census numbers 10/10/18

Action Comics #1 - 69 copies 

Superman #1 - 143 copies 

Detective Comics #27 - 68 Copies

Batman #1 - 252 copies  

Captain America comics #1 - 164 copies 

Marvel Comics #1 - 61 copies

All Star comics #8 - 166 copies 

Sensation Comics #1 - 91 copies

Wonder Woman #1 - 159 copies  

Flash comics #1 - 77 copies 

Thanks for laying it out like that. You really get a feel for it that way.  Looks like Tec 27 might  have picked up 1 recently ??

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On 10/10/2018 at 3:42 PM, Knightsofold said:

 

I looked up a few megas so I’ll put the #’s here.

Cgc total census numbers 10/10/18

Action Comics #1 - 69 copies 

Superman #1 - 143 copies 

Detective Comics #27 - 68 Copies

Batman #1 - 252 copies  

Captain America comics #1 - 164 copies 

Marvel Comics #1 - 61 copies

All Star comics #8 - 166 copies 

Sensation Comics #1 - 91 copies

Wonder Woman #1 - 159 copies  

Flash comics #1 - 77 copies 

Just to add to this on the hero front from the big 2 publishers :  

All American #16 - 52 copies

Whiz Comics # 2 -  50 copies 

More Fun # 73 — 49 copies. 

Marvel Comics 1 makes an argument for the # 3 book in the hobby ? 

Pep 22 really is all by itself in terms of rareity based on the census. 

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