One week old. 1 in 100. Already $2k? 3 3

[FlyingDonut]

2 hours ago, october said:

If you think the collectibility of golden age romance and crime books is gone, you should take a closer look at the market. Both are hot right now, especially noteworthy covers or covers by certain artists.

People aren't buying romance or crime books. They're buying artists and covers - the genre is sort of irrelevant. The vast majority of them have not retained their value.

[RockMyAmadeus]

2 minutes ago, FlyingDonut said:

2 hours ago, october said:

If you think the collectibility of golden age romance and crime books is gone, you should take a closer look at the market. Both are hot right now, especially noteworthy covers or covers by certain artists.

People aren't buying romance or crime books. They're buying artists and covers - the genre is sort of irrelevant. The vast majority of them have not retained their value.

Which is another new facet of the hobby, that didn't exist 20, 15, or maybe even 10 years ago (though I admit that's stretching it a bit.)

This book: 

...back in the 80s and 90s, this book had a guide value of about the same as the books around it. It was "broken out", and had a bit more value  because it was used in SOTI and the Senate investigation, but it wasn't even as valuable as #20:

Now....#22 has left all the others in the dust. It's not even close. It sells for 10 or more times #21 and #23, and significantly more than #20.

And it's just because of that cover. It's a new-ish phenomenon, that simply didn't exist in the pre-slabbing era.

Will we see more of this...? Probably.

[october]

42 minutes ago, FlyingDonut said:

People aren't buying romance or crime books. They're buying artists and covers - the genre is sort of irrelevant. The vast majority of them have not retained their value.

There are hundreds of examples of desirable crime and romance books, possibly thousands...and the genre certainly is not irrelevant. If it was, Baker war books wouldn't be selling for 1/20th what the romance issues are going for. 

I have sold no-name artist romance issues for hundreds of dollars. If people like the image, it sells. 

And the ENTIRE HOBBY is cover-centric now outside of first appearances. Hard to use that as a criticism of these genres in particular. 

[CKinTO]

3 hours ago, jsilverjanet said:

I hear that a lot - that this behavior isn’t helping - can someone elaborate?

money and new collectors (investors I guess) in the hobby is better than less collectors and less money

everyone says it, so what’s the consequence?

Here's my view as a mid-30s collector who's in many ways the classic "rule of 25" buyer. Collected comics in late 80s/early 90s, stopped for 20 years, and over past few years with nostalgia as a driving force, picking up a lot of keys / 1st apps of characters I grew up with (X-Men, Spider-Man, etc.) I had no appreciation of the 90s crash while it was happening as a kid, but here's my view on how all the "new spec money" can hurt: 

- Spec money generally interested in flipping, not medium-long term holds, or for the PC. The influx of money brings about the expectation that prices will keep going up, and the FOMO aspect of not paying up for a book that it will cost more tomorrow
- For those selling, it's great. For buyers, prices get bid up hard. Prices go up for everyone. Even for the long-term collectors, they have to pay more and more money for books, competing against the spec buyer
- Something happens to trigger a correction (at this point, probably general economy related, recession, long sustained stock market correction etc.)
- Bottom falls out, no bids on books where prices have spiralled out of control, prices tank (especially for expensive books $1k+, $5k+, 10k+, $50k+ etc.). Dealers (and weekend warrior dealers) who are sitting on tons of $ of inventory run out of liquidity, need to sell asap, and it all piles on

Bottom line, imo the spec money while great on the way up, makes the crash that much harder / faster, and a lot of the market that had to buy on the way up are faced with the reality of the "market value" of their books dropping a lot from what they bought it at. Either they liquidate too (piling on to the influx of supply, contributing to more price drops) or they get so disillusioned that they get turned off of buying comics forever (or for a long time), which makes the recovery take longer too, as their bid is no longer in the market. 

For anyone who's lived in a city with a big real estate boom (especially one where there's a big foreign investment component, and real estate flippers in turn, which I liken to the "spec bid"), there are a lot of similarities. Great while it's going up (for homeowners especially who bought beforehand), but lots of new buyers get priced out or have to stretch in a rising price market, and then if/when correction comes, it's that much more painful. That's why governments try to curb these overly exuberant markets as the belief is that net-net, long-term, the market is healthier with slower rises and slower declines (than the hard run-up and crash). 

[Cozmo-One]

2 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Yes, but you made the claim that nobody has heard of Spider Gwen outside of the comics community, which is true. Irrespective of the value of this particular variant, it's also true that nobody ever heard of Groot, RR, or Star Lord outside the comics community, either, but I guarantee you...under the right circumstances, people would be paying $2k for something featuring those guys, a week after they came out. I'm not disagreeing with you, but if the criteria is "no one's ever heard of Spider Gwen, and probably never will"...I don't think that's a valid angle to look at it from. While that's true NOW...it may not be true TOMORROW, or at some point in the future.

Based on the amount of merchandising (even mainstream) that is out there for Spider-Gwen/Ghost Spider, I think her name is somewhat out there, even for non-comic book people.  However, I'm at a loss as to the cuckoo bananas prices on this variant.

I posted in another thread earlier this summer, but I had to buy this for my daughter (who admittedly is at least interested in comics).

[Mercury Man]

2 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

While that's true NOW...it may not be true TOMORROW, or at some point in the future.

 You're right, I have no crystal ball.  I am just baffled that people think these books are wise purchases for a 1 week old comic book. 

[RockMyAmadeus]

3 minutes ago, Mercury Man said:

2 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

While that's true NOW...it may not be true TOMORROW, or at some point in the future.

 You're right, I have no crystal ball.  I am just baffled that people think these books are wise purchases for a 1 week old comic book. 

You and me both. It's a special species of madness, for sure.

[WolverineX]

There’s got to be some element of price manipulation imo

[ygogolak]

On 11/2/2018 at 11:30 PM, Mercury Man said:

You seriously comparing a $2K off the shelf one week later variant to a .25 cent or $1 new comic that took years of storytelling, lore and movies to build up value?

Are you ponying up $2K for the Spider Gwen Variant if you are so confident?  I can post funny pics too....

It has nothing to do with the current flavor variant. You said nobody is going to care about Spider Gwen and I stated they same was said about Deadpool.

[camera73]

22 hours ago, FlyingDonut said:

Not all. Ones where the character hasn't been published in years and years will still have value, but it isn't sustainable. Batman, Superman, Captain America, Wonder Woman - those are fine. The Golden Age comic books you're thinking of are fine. The ones you're not thinking of are dogs - this one, for example, that had a print run higher than ANY comic published now.  I'll sell this comic on eBay this week for $10 because everyone who ever heard of Sunset Carson is - at least - 70 years old.

My perspective on this particular topic:

1) Current variants are marketed toward more middle-aged collectors. So, the Rule of 25 does not apply, if we can agree on that point.

2) The world of teenage boys is difficult to understand, even if you get paid to advertise to them. I teach teenagers and their interests are so diverse, that it is almost impossible to summarize what they are into. I'd list YuGiOh, Pokemon, Marvel movies, iPhones, all modern gaming systems and games, as well as fads like, Kendama in my guess for the youth of the 21st century (so far). Don't forget that today's girls may also grow up to be collectors, so Disney, MLP and a few other properties are possible.

We are into Funko pops! but that has mostly been an adult phenomenon, so many in our 'cult' are attempting to gauge how much of a lifespan they'll enjoy.

3) Reading the commentary around the Rule of 75, it looks like some folks are focused on the publication dates of Golden Age books. At that time, comics were 10 cents, shared and swapped, meaning there was not too much of that wish-I-could-get-that feeling. For Golden Age comics, there were a lot of us young boys staring at OSPGs in the 70s and 80s, when they were at the height of their popularity, and dreaming of the day when we could track down older books.

That pushes the expiration date for comics of the 40s and 50s up about thirty to forty years after their publication.

[RockMyAmadeus]

8 hours ago, CKinTO said:

Here's my view as a mid-30s collector who's in many ways the classic "rule of 25" buyer. Collected comics in late 80s/early 90s, stopped for 20 years, and over past few years with nostalgia as a driving force, picking up a lot of keys / 1st apps of characters I grew up with (X-Men, Spider-Man, etc.) I had no appreciation of the 90s crash while it was happening as a kid, but here's my view on how all the "new spec money" can hurt: 

- Spec money generally interested in flipping, not medium-long term holds, or for the PC. The influx of money brings about the expectation that prices will keep going up, and the FOMO aspect of not paying up for a book that it will cost more tomorrow
- For those selling, it's great. For buyers, prices get bid up hard. Prices go up for everyone. Even for the long-term collectors, they have to pay more and more money for books, competing against the spec buyer
- Something happens to trigger a correction (at this point, probably general economy related, recession, long sustained stock market correction etc.)
- Bottom falls out, no bids on books where prices have spiralled out of control, prices tank (especially for expensive books $1k+, $5k+, 10k+, $50k+ etc.). Dealers (and weekend warrior dealers) who are sitting on tons of $ of inventory run out of liquidity, need to sell asap, and it all piles on

Bottom line, imo the spec money while great on the way up, makes the crash that much harder / faster, and a lot of the market that had to buy on the way up are faced with the reality of the "market value" of their books dropping a lot from what they bought it at. Either they liquidate too (piling on to the influx of supply, contributing to more price drops) or they get so disillusioned that they get turned off of buying comics forever (or for a long time), which makes the recovery take longer too, as their bid is no longer in the market. 

For anyone who's lived in a city with a big real estate boom (especially one where there's a big foreign investment component, and real estate flippers in turn, which I liken to the "spec bid"), there are a lot of similarities. Great while it's going up (for homeowners especially who bought beforehand), but lots of new buyers get priced out or have to stretch in a rising price market, and then if/when correction comes, it's that much more painful. That's why governments try to curb these overly exuberant markets as the belief is that net-net, long-term, the market is healthier with slower rises and slower declines (than the hard run-up and crash). 

This is a good explanation of the speculator market.

[RockMyAmadeus]

(This thread is a great conversation, by the way.)

[WolverineX]

4 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

This is a good explanation of the speculator market.

Where is this from?

 

8 hours ago, CKinTO said:

Here's my view as a mid-30s collector who's in many ways the classic "rule of 25" buyer. Collected comics in late 80s/early 90s, stopped for 20 years, and over past few years with nostalgia as a driving force, picking up a lot of keys / 1st apps of characters I grew up with (X-Men, Spider-Man, etc.) I had no appreciation of the 90s crash while it was happening as a kid, but here's my view on how all the "new spec money" can hurt: 

- Spec money generally interested in flipping, not medium-long term holds, or for the PC. The influx of money brings about the expectation that prices will keep going up, and the FOMO aspect of not paying up for a book that it will cost more tomorrow
- For those selling, it's great. For buyers, prices get bid up hard. Prices go up for everyone. Even for the long-term collectors, they have to pay more and more money for books, competing against the spec buyer
- Something happens to trigger a correction (at this point, probably general economy related, recession, long sustained stock market correction etc.)
- Bottom falls out, no bids on books where prices have spiralled out of control, prices tank (especially for expensive books $1k+, $5k+, 10k+, $50k+ etc.). Dealers (and weekend warrior dealers) who are sitting on tons of $ of inventory run out of liquidity, need to sell asap, and it all piles on

Bottom line, imo the spec money while great on the way up, makes the crash that much harder / faster, and a lot of the market that had to buy on the way up are faced with the reality of the "market value" of their books dropping a lot from what they bought it at. Either they liquidate too (piling on to the influx of supply, contributing to more price drops) or they get so disillusioned that they get turned off of buying comics forever (or for a long time), which makes the recovery take longer too, as their bid is no longer in the market. 

For anyone who's lived in a city with a big real estate boom (especially one where there's a big foreign investment component, and real estate flippers in turn, which I liken to the "spec bid"), there are a lot of similarities. Great while it's going up (for homeowners especially who bought beforehand), but lots of new buyers get priced out or have to stretch in a rising price market, and then if/when correction comes, it's that much more painful. That's why governments try to curb these overly exuberant markets as the belief is that net-net, long-term, the market is healthier with slower rises and slower declines (than the hard run-up and crash). 

Great summary... so what should pick up then?  stay out of every modern now?

[camera73]

2 hours ago, Wolverinex said:

 

Great summary... so what should pick up then?  stay out of every modern now?

I'd say 'Hell No!' to that idea. There are true keys coming out of moderns and collectors with a little imagination and patience are going to reap the rewards.

There are first appearances of future stars happening at a rapid rate. Look at Harley Quinn - a huge success twenty years in the making. Funny that Marvel learned the most from the love that she's been getting (Spiderverse and Marvel Rising). 

One problem with variant speculation is that the values run counter to true price evolution. The real winners tend to be keys (events, 1st apps, storylines, revolutionary concepts) that are discovered over time and see gradual price increases - very similar to a stock chart. Of course, there are (sometimes permanent) downturns, but that is how you know that the collecting masses are solidly behind a book.

Quick increases in a newer issue may indicate a flood of money into initial purchases, but does nothing to confirm that the price point is sustainable.

[divad]

2 hours ago, Wolverinex said:

Where is this from?

 

Great summary... so what should pick up then?  stay out of every modern now?

You should never ever buy books off the rack retail. 

Edited November 5, 2018 by divad

[Dangercow]

Some pricey Ironheart #1 variant pre-sales just showed up on eBay...trend may continue

Edited November 6, 2018 by Dangercow

[the blob]

On ‎11‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 3:43 PM, ygogolak said:

Rule of 25 is always in play.

 

On ‎11‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 9:41 PM, Mercury Man said:

Normal circumstances, sure, I mean even X-Force #1 is somehow selling again, but who is going to micro-manage these variants, especially trying to thump thousands of dollars out of them years from now?!  Unless somebody starts a thread on a certain variant *ahem ahem*, (and keeps pounding away at it), these will fall in line with the rest of the bunch.  Seriously, nobody is going to give a rats arse about SPIDER GWEN GHOST SPIDER.   Certainly not at $2K. 

When the music stops somebody will be left holding a worthless comic with no chair to sit in. 

Wait what were talking about....see, I already forgot about it. 

There aren't that many variants that have hit $500+. I agree, it's hard to keep track of all of this stuff, but the numbers are pretty darn small, etc. But for $2K can't you get a pretty nice piece of one-of-a-kind OA. For $1250 you can get this... https://www.ebay.com/itm/AMAZING-COMICS-1-CGC-6-5FINE-1944-SCHOMBURG-TIMELY-YOUNG-ALLIES-COVER/152248176288?hash=item2372b2cea0:g:1cIAAOSwt5hYcCR8:rk:28:pf:0    $1900 gets you this .... https://www.ebay.com/itm/Marvel-Mystery-68-Timely-CGC-8-0-Crippen-copy/253960475706?hash=item3b2139543a:g:YEsAAOSwZPdbsmhO   Yes, I don't get $2K for a new variant cover

[the blob]

On ‎11‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 11:48 AM, FlyingDonut said:

People aren't buying romance or crime books. They're buying artists and covers - the genre is sort of irrelevant. The vast majority of them have not retained their value.

I dunno about pre-code crime. Yes, the guide was dumb high on those, but I think they sell for a lot more now than when I was buying them in the mid-90s. Were other books better investment vehicles? Yes, with a few classic cover exceptions.

As for 50s romance, outside of artists/classic covers, when were these sought after? In the 80s? 70s? At this point there is a market for them if they have a 10 cent cover price and are presentable.

[Second Blight]

3 hours ago, Dangercow said:

Some pricey Ironheart #1 variant pre-sales just showed up on eBay...trend may continue

pricey ? The book isnt available until the end of the month. Plus, the lack of sellers, right now, shouldn't scare people into paying alot for the variants. Just wait

Also, this is the wrong thread to post that in.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Second Blight

[the blob]

On ‎11‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 9:13 PM, FlyingDonut said:

OK.

The Rule of 25 simply states that the hot collectible at any one time is what 37-42 year old men wanted to buy 25 years previously when they were 12-17 year old boys. It doesn't matter what the collectible is - that's the sweet spot for nostalgia, 25 years and above.

The Rule of 25 has never been proven wrong. Of course, you may miss as to what the hot collectible is but whatever was desired by a teenage boy 25 years previously will become what the new hot collectible du jour is. 25 years previous from now was 1993-94.

If you want to make some money, you should be buying the things that teenage boys wanted to buy in 1999 and sticking them away for a couple of years.

There also is the corollary - the Rule of 75 - which states that something will become not collectible 75 years later, because all of the people who were collecting that stuff are dead. Stamps. Westerns. Postcards. etc. etc.  It also never has been proven wrong. The big thing now is furniture. The price on high end collectible furniture has cratered - that's because all the people who collected furniture are getting rid of it because they're dying off, and no one is buying.

Punisher War Journal 7 is 29 now.