One week old. 1 in 100. Already $2k? 3 3

[the blob]

"For anyone who's lived in a city with a big real estate boom (especially one where there's a big foreign investment component, and real estate flippers in turn, which I liken to the "spec bid"), there are a lot of similarities. Great while it's going up (for homeowners especially who bought beforehand), but lots of new buyers get priced out or have to stretch in a rising price market, and then if/when correction comes, it's that much more painful. That's why governments try to curb these overly exuberant markets as the belief is that net-net, long-term, the market is healthier with slower rises and slower declines (than the hard run-up and crash)."

Shhhh. I just need the madness that is the Brooklyn RE market to last another 10-15 years until I am semi-retired and my youngest is off to college. I know there will be ups and downs, but if I am where I am now adjusted for inflation in 10-15 I will be fine. By then I might have managed to get my collections manageable enough to move to a bungalow in an over 55 community....(just kidding)

 

[I like pie]

If these people buying this book raw at $600-$700 are doing so because they're loaded and just need to have it right away, that's cool. To each their own. I've done things similar.

If they are hoping it's going to retain it's value or even go up , in 6 months time , they're going to have a bad time.

[FlyingDonut]

Its a little early, but voila! 2000 Pokemon cards are blowing up.Who could have known!

[the blob]

1 hour ago, FlyingDonut said:

Its a little early, but voila! 2000 Pokemon cards are blowing up.Who could have known!

There is a lot of fake Pokemon out there so certification is key. For shi@@ts and giggles my son buys fake booster boxes from china and other than a few misprints they look legit. The give away is that the card stock is actually better quality than real Pokemon cards. They use playing card stock and real Pokemon are thinner.

[october]

How are my 25-30 year old Canseco and McGwire rookies doing? Those were the cards everyone wanted but could not afford 25 years ago.

Still waiting for those Beanie Baby investors to cash in, now that the craze is 25 years old.

[ygogolak]

17 hours ago, the blob said:

Punisher War Journal 7 is 29 now.

Always liked 6 better.

Jim Lee isn't a hot artist right now. Personally I don't like much of his new published work. If it was a Todd McFarlane cover I bet it would be worth more than $1-2.

[divad]

On 11/6/2018 at 2:54 PM, the blob said:

Punisher War Journal 7 is 29 now.

I guess you missed that window . . . 

 

 

[CKinTO]

On 11/4/2018 at 9:20 PM, Wolverinex said:

Great summary... so what should pick up then?  stay out of every modern now?

 

On 11/4/2018 at 11:55 PM, camera73 said:

The real winners tend to be keys (events, 1st apps, storylines, revolutionary concepts) that are discovered over time and see gradual price increases - very similar to a stock chart. Of course, there are (sometimes permanent) downturns, but that is how you know that the collecting masses are solidly behind a book.

Quick increases in a newer issue may indicate a flood of money into initial purchases, but does nothing to confirm that the price point is sustainable.

Yes, I agree with this. Obviously everyone is welcome to buy what they like, but for me, I generally stay away from books where the "rarity" is the driving force of the price appreciation. So that's eg. high incentive ratio variants (1:100, 1:500, 1:1000) of otherwise non-key books. This Spider-Gwen Ghost Spider variant is a good example for what I personally avoid. I agree what keeps a book valuable longer term is 1st appearances of characters that have long-term staying power, and so I generally channel my larger dollar purchases to those. Maybe that means you miss out on something that could've gone up in price, but I'm primarily a collector (and reader of new comics) and rarely sell, so I'm ok missing out on those potential opportunities. I think long-term, you'll have a lot more "losses" than "wins" if you chase the volatile spec. 

 

[fastballspecial]

1 hour ago, CKinTO said:

On ‎11‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 8:20 PM, Wolverinex said:

Great summary... so what should pick up then?  stay out of every modern now?

 

On ‎11‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 10:55 PM, camera73 said:

The real winners tend to be keys (events, 1st apps, storylines, revolutionary concepts) that are discovered over time and see gradual price increases - very similar to a stock chart. Of course, there are (sometimes permanent) downturns, but that is how you know that the collecting masses are solidly behind a book.

Quick increases in a newer issue may indicate a flood of money into initial purchases, but does nothing to confirm that the price point is sustainable.

Yes, I agree with this. Obviously everyone is welcome to buy what they like, but for me, I generally stay away from books where the "rarity" is the driving force of the price appreciation. So that's eg. high incentive ratio variants (1:100, 1:500, 1:1000) of otherwise non-key books. This Spider-Gwen Ghost Spider variant is a good example for what I personally avoid. I agree what keeps a book valuable longer term is 1st appearances of characters that have long-term staying power, and so I generally channel my larger dollar purchases to those. Maybe that means you miss out on something that could've gone up in price, but I'm primarily a collector (and reader of new comics) and rarely sell, so I'm ok missing out on those potential opportunities. I think long-term, you'll have a lot more "losses" than "wins" if you chase the volatile spec. 

 

Yeah you can already see it. The book has fallen quite a bit the last 5 out 6 sales.

 

Edited November 11, 2018 by fastballspecial

[ygogolak]

1 hour ago, fastballspecial said:

Yeah you can already see it. The book has fallen quite a bit the last 5 out 6 sales.

 

Yes, there were only about 4 listed when it hit its highs. Once people saw $700 I'm sure they said screw it and listed theirs. Now not only has the price come down, but shill bidders are in the mix.

Wait until this initial wave of copies dries up and then we will see what the demand is. That's assuming Diamond doesn't drop 100 of them on the market in 6 months.

[fastballspecial]

I agree the book will hold some value as its a nice cover, but the manipulation of the book at the beginning is now 
showing the true demand weeks later. I feel sorry for the individuals that paid $700+ or bought that slab.

 

Edited November 11, 2018 by fastballspecial

[Jaydogrules]

33 minutes ago, fastballspecial said:

I agree the book will hold some value as its a nice cover, but the manipulation of the book at the beginning is now 
showing the true demand weeks later. I feel sorry for the individuals that paid $700+ or bought that slab.

 

That slab did not sell.  And the attempted manipulation continues, unabated.  There were three "sales" yesterday and every single one was fraudulent.  

-J.

[ygogolak]

2 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

That slab did not sell.  And the attempted manipulation continues, unabated.  There were three "sales" yesterday and every single one was fraudulent.  

-J.

I really wish eBay would do something. The slab was an agreed to BIN price. Then the buyer said they couldn't pay. Like you said, the new auctions were all shilled.

[Mercury Man]

3 hours ago, fastballspecial said:

I agree the book will hold some value as its a nice cover, but the manipulation of the book at the beginning is now 
showing the true demand weeks later. I feel sorry for the individuals that paid $700+ or bought that slab.

 

I don't.  It's market correction.  No different than losing money on any other 'investment', which is what these people are trying to make it. 

[Kwan Chang]

This is the exact conversation that was had for the edge of spider-verse #2 and look at that book now.

 

[Awax]

2 hours ago, Kwan Chang said:

This is the exact conversation that was had for the edge of spider-verse #2 and look at that book now.

 

But that book at least has a first appearance of a character. 

[CKinTO]

Yes, that's a bit of a different conversation... I imagine the discussion on EOSV2 was that Spider-Gwen the character wasn't going anywhere, so her 1st app wouldn't be worth that much. Obviously there's tons of 1st apps that don't amount to much (usually because the character doesn't amount to anything but obviously supply as well), and so speculation on whether any given character will become big (or get a movie) and thus their 1st app will become valuable is all too-frequent. 

[lighthouse]

On 11/10/2018 at 6:56 PM, ygogolak said:

Wait until this initial wave of copies dries up and then we will see what the demand is. That's assuming Diamond doesn't drop 100 of them on the market in 6 months.

And that's exactly why gambling on low print run variants is challenging. Diamond doesn't mess with the distribution of 1 in 500 or 1 in 1000 variants. Those are handled by a specific office at Diamond that keeps all the overstock until they can confirm how many damage replacements are needed, handles the damage replacements themselves (not shipped as part of a normal weekly delivery), and then disposes of the excess.

But 1 in 25s, 1 in 50s, and 1 in 100s? Diamond keeps piles of overstock with the main inventory at the distribution centers and periodically dumps excess on the market 6 months or a year later (in some cases even longer). We have ordered loads of 1 in 25s and 1 in 50s months after their release for $2.00 net cost. And even on "common" variants, they can swamp a market. Diamond dumped hundreds of Thanos 13 lenticulars on the market at $2 net cost just a couple weeks ago. Now regular covers sell for $40-80 raw, and the lenticulars can be had for $6. The lenticulars will likely be absorbed, and if anyone cares about CGR in the future, the prices will get closer together as the lenticulars come up. But it was quite the deluge.

[Mercury Man]

On 11/12/2018 at 1:47 PM, lighthouse said:

Diamond dumped hundreds of Thanos 13 lenticulars on the market at $2 net cost just a couple weeks ago. Now regular covers sell for $40-80 raw, and the lenticulars can be had for $6.

Months ago when the lenticulars came out, my LCS asked why I didn't want them and the regular-plain covers instead.  My 'sarcastic' logic was;  "Eerybody is going to want lenticulars, but the regular covers are going to be the rare ones".  I'm a flippin' genius.