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HA February Auction
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569 posts in this topic

12 hours ago, Frank Mozz said:

Total Newbie to this market, I know nothing & have assumed its just best to buy what I like & enjoy it at this point in my life.. Meaning this I am amazed & bewildered at the way some collectors look at just one sale or one auction & can determine this toy, this comic or this artist is now soft & on the way down or is now hot & on the way up. We all know there are trends in every hobby ( I still have all 30 copies of Dazzler 1) commenting on some high or low results is one thing But making a market prediction based on the latest Heritage, CL or CC auctions good or bad is just..........absured imo. For example, I just read for 3+ pages that Big John Buscema was on the way down or better yet that the 1970s comic art market could be trending downward ( you got all that from one auction?) really? So I just watched the Splash for  FF #112 hammer out at 43K + seems pretty good to me & I know crapola about this hobby but I know 43K is a bunch of greenbacks in the real world. So because of that sale is Big John now hot again? That's just silly & this is just one example but after 40+ yrs of collecting comics, I would suggest that to base anything even representative of where any market is trending or in this case artist be it Jack Kirby to Jay Scott Cambell it requires more input or data then one, two or even 3 auctions. I still remember when a lot of comic collectors said Golden age was on its way out in the 1990s Same guys who now own 500 copies of Shreken #1.

No one is making predictions based on just one auction.

No one said that the John Buscema market was on the way down, just that a number of pieces underperformed expectations in the last HA sale.  In fact, I stated in a podcast last year that John Buscema Conan art has been outperforming BWS Conan art, likely due in large part to the former riding the coattails of Big John's extensive superhero catalog compared to BWS' more limited one (mainstream superhero art being king these days, of course).

No one is extrapolating from just one sale that 1970s comic art is trending downward.  But, it's settled science that the real heat in the OA market is, by and large, elsewhere than 1970s comic art (again, as caveated before:  SOME EXCEPTIONS APPLY). And, a lot of the more niche/genre material from the decade has not been strong at all. Anyone who doesn't see unmistakable signs of aging out occurring in this segment is either living in a cave or is looking at the market through rose-colored glasses.

FF #112 splash going for $43K is not a huge shock when that cover is 6-figures easy. If it was the splash from a run of the mill Buscema FF issue, I'd agree, but, some of you guys seem to forget that this is a semi-key, classic Hulk vs. Thing issue. 

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17 hours ago, Frank Mozz said:

your 100% correct. But my post was based on the conclusions made in this post based on the recent HA  auction, I assume like comics & toy collectors long-time collectors & dealers have a much broader understanding on the current pulse of the OA market. However, that was not included in many of the posts I read and seemed much more focused on just the results of the recent HA auction. For example one of the post make the point that BWS splash from issue # 5 did not do as well as was expected, ok fair enough but IMHO it is a very weak example of Smiths Conan and surely not reason enough to assume BWS while not as hot as say 5 yrs ago ( I just found this out from a long time collector here on the boards) is on his way to being a bust. To me that's just absurd, I mean does anyone here not think if a classic prime BWS Conan cover came up it would not do quite well? My general point being this there are trends in every hobby highs and lows but for 40 yrs I have suffered the doomsayers prediction about everything from Star Wars to Golden age comics and after a while it just gets old. Heres my prediction based on 40 yrs of being in the collectible arena 50 yrs from now there will be a market for quality CONAN art  ( by the way it's one of the hottest current new Marvel comics)  vintage Star Wars figures and  Action comic  PS there is no hope for 1950s Westerns lol.

If a classic prime BWS Conan cover came up, of course it's going to do well. But, so what? The fact is, I know of 5 BWS Conan cover sales in the past few years (3 private, 2 public) and NONE of those prices have reached the heights reached by the covers that sold at Heritage in 2013-14 (only one is even in the same zip code).  I made a 6-figure offer for one BWS cover (a good one, but, not one of the keys) in 2012 - how much has it appreciated from that level since then?  Probably not much, and probably not at all from whatever the peak theoretical value was a few years ago.  Sure, if the #24 cover hit the market today, it would fetch hundreds of thousands of dollars.  But, hey, newsflash: it would have fetched hundreds of thousands of dollars five years ago as well. Are you just going to ignore the fact that my friend offered the owner $35K for ANY page from Red Nails a few years ago (I suspect that offer is no longer good)?  Do you think every page in the book is $35K+ now?  I doubt it.  Are you also going to ignore that both BWS Conan splashes in the last HA sale sold cheap?  Or that most panel pages from the run have largely stagnated for years?  Or that the #6 complete story, predicted as much as $200K by some BWS aficionados, sold for, what, $120 or $130K a year or two ago?  

In any case, you can't point to just the cream of the crop, whether it be FF #112 (Buscema) or Conan #24 or Red Nails (BWS) to prove a point. The Jeff Jones Wonder Woman #199 cover is a 6-figure cover, yes. But the vast majority of Jones' work is stagnating...or worse.  There's a lot of material from the '70s that people are aging out of. I think I mentioned the Ploog WWBN example in that podcast last year. There were offers for a certain cover around $24-25K by a couple of people (one of them was me) all the way back in 2010-11. I heard it sold recently for $30K. Not much appreciation 8 years later at a time when a lot of mainstream comic art has exploded in price.  And that's because demographics are taking hold for a lot of '70s material, with most of the biggest fans/collectors in their late 40s at a minimum, and many/most in their 50s/60s. The stuff that is outperforming these days is the stuff that is coming into its demographic prime (prime late '80s and '90s material) and the material that is transcending generations (e.g. Marvel Silver Age art). 2c 

Edited by delekkerste
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Context is king!     

Conan hasn't seen much publishing since 1990 or so?

BWS hasn't worked a mainstream title since....   1988?

Jones... jeez when's the last time he did something mainstream?   70's?    

Can't expect our kids to have the same interests as us.    They are going to like what they like, same as we did.   

Maybe you should be selling all your Elvgrens and buying video games and mtg hm

Edited by Bronty
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15 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Conan hasn't seen much publishing since 1990 or so?

To my knowledge, both the Dark Horse and new Marvel titles were/are solid performers. Not the crossover hit that the first Marvel title(s) were, but relative successes.

59 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

  And that's because demographics are taking hold for a lot of '70s material, with most of the biggest fans/collectors in their late 40s at a minimum, and many/most in their 50s/60s. The stuff that is outperforming these days is the stuff that is coming into its demographic prime (prime late '80s and '90s material) and the material that is transcending generations (e.g. Marvel Silver Age art). 2c 

Yuuuup. Next 5-ish years will be last gasp for the high-water prices for 70s material as piles come to market due to black hole collections aging out. The slightly younger end of that demo will pickup the pieces they've always wanted. After that, it's hot potato time.

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2 hours ago, Bronty said:

Context is king!     

Conan hasn't seen much publishing since 1990 or so?

BWS hasn't worked a mainstream title since....   1988?

Jones... jeez when's the last time he did something mainstream?   70's?    

Can't expect our kids to have the same interests as us.    They are going to like what they like, same as we did.   

Maybe you should be selling all your Elvgrens and buying video games and mtg hm

Are you kidding? Conan has seen massive amounts of publishing over the past two decades, just not at Marvel, check out the fantastic work done by other publishers like Dark Horse

A guy named Kirby, Ditko and many others have not published any new art in decades???

 Who among us was born when Detective 27 was published? My 8 yr old grandson loves Batman & Superman & Capt America ect

 Again the new Marvel Conan comic is among the best selling new titles.

Not to long ago Guardians of the Galaxy were not even mentioned in the top tier of popular properties it seems crazy in today's world to assume any character is dead, well except Westerns lol

Edited by Frank Mozz
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25 minutes ago, Frank Mozz said:

1. Are you kidding? Conan has seen massive amounts of publishing over the past two decades, just not at Marvel, check out the fantastic work done by other publishers like Dark Horse

2.  A guy named Kirby, Ditko and many others have not published any new art in decades???

3.  Who among us was born when Detective 27 was published? My 8 yr old grandson loves Batman & Superman & Capt America ect

 4. Again the new Marvel Conan comic is among the best selling new titles.

5. Not to long ago Guardians of the Galaxy were not even mentioned in the top tier of popular properties it seems crazy in today's world to assume any character is dead, well except Westerns lol

1. My mistake on Conan.   I did not realize that was the case.   

2. Nobody gives a .    You can buy charlton ditko art very cheap.   And if he hadn't worked on ASM, it would be even cheaper.    You can buy off brand kirby reasonably too.   I.e. ...  don't confuse Kirby/Ditko marvel superhero art being valuable for kirby/ditko art in general being valuable.   And this is for two of the guys on the mount rushmore of marvel artists.    Point is.. if ditko asm art is rising, its more due to the character than due to the artist.   

3.  See 'transcends generations'

4.  see 1.

5.  I hear what you're saying, but no long underwear or capes on Conan and so far its all about superheroes

 

More to the point, you're finding fault with a couple things I said, okay, whatever.   But the general point of BWS and Jones not having done anything mainstream since I was effing 10 is still true :whistle:     (And I'd argue Conan is a pretty good example of the heat in this hobby being on superheroes at the exclusion of almost everythign else).

Edited by Bronty
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11 hours ago, delekkerste said:

No one is making predictions based on just one auction.

No one said that the John Buscema market was on the way down, just that a number of pieces underperformed expectations in the last HA sale.  In fact, I stated in a podcast last year that John Buscema Conan art has been outperforming BWS Conan art, likely due in large part to the former riding the coattails of Big John's extensive superhero catalog compared to BWS' more limited one (mainstream superhero art being king these days, of course).

No one is extrapolating from just one sale that 1970s comic art is trending downward.  But, it's settled science that the real heat in the OA market is, by and large, elsewhere than 1970s comic art (again, as caveated before:  SOME EXCEPTIONS APPLY). And, a lot of the more niche/genre material from the decade has not been strong at all. Anyone who doesn't see unmistakable signs of aging out occurring in this segment is either living in a cave or is looking at the market through rose-colored glasses.

FF #112 splash going for $43K is not a huge shock when that cover is 6-figures easy. If it was the splash from a run of the mill Buscema FF issue, I'd agree, but, some of you guys seem to forget that this is a semi-key, classic Hulk vs. Thing issue. 

I assume all your points are 100% valid, I am just applying my background with toys and comics here and again ( would use the golden & silver age comics are dead reference of the 1990s, many of us lived it)  but I am sorry I just reread many of the posts in this thread and they were not presented the way you presented them above which only validates my initial point. I  am sorry when I read a post that in essence says JB art is awful and maybe people are starting to see that based on one HA auction?  I just have laugh, but hey to each his own. So yes, of course, exceptions apply or another way of saying that is the KEYS will always sell for more than the more common or less appealing pages. For example, using the case of Big John I would point out there seems to be a lot of his stuff out there so the end result of any sale would depend on the content, inker, era ect. but really Is that anything new as the same applies to comics, toys, and most collectibles doesn't it?

Edited by Frank Mozz
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I know what you're saying Frank and there's some truth in the idea that some of this is overblown at this point in time .    Some of it may be wanting to find a conclusion that suits the hypothesis.   However, it does seem reasonable to think that as the hobby ages out, the desirability and pricing of certain things will change.   The particular conclusions we can argue about, and why not, its fun to debate, but that much seems self evident.     So whether one, two, or ten auctions are sufficient evidence to conclude something, at the end of the day prices do change over time, and at the end of the day, we are talking about prices at the margins, at least so far, rather than a wholesale revaluation.

Jones is a good anecdotal example because to a certain generation he's very well respected, but to later generations he's not well known.    If price of his work is stagnating, its not hard to imagine that part of it might be due to the generation with which he's associated aging out, especially in light of the fact that he's really not associated with any mainstream characters at all.   If demographics matter, then he is an interesting study because the time of peak interest in Jones may have permanently passed. 

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I have one question to the Group related to demographics and OA price predictions, somewhat related to the recent posts on this thread.  I was thinking about creating a new thread but I might as well ask the question here.

If demographics and nostalgia are the main drivers of OA buying and pricing, who is buying '50s Sci Fi art?  I am referring not only to the Frazetta Flash Gordon cover, but also to the more regular Williamson cover that still fetched a respectful 30k plus at CLink.  I mean, these comics were published in the '50s.  Somebody who was 13 then is about 80 today....Are these really still nostalgia-driven purchases?  At the same time, one can hardly tell that these covers refer to broadly recognised mythos like Spider-Man or the Avengers, as would be the case of early Ditko or Kirby on those issues, so also context hardly applies.

So my question is, are there collectors who are driven not by nostalgia, but by the sheer quality of the art, even bejond context (I can't imagine exactly what context the Williamson cover could refer to...).  And if that is the case, doesn't that provide a favourable outlook for prices of good quality OA in the future, even beyond nostalgia and context considerations?

Carlo

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6 minutes ago, Carlo M said:

I have one question to the Group related to demographics and OA price predictions, somewhat related to the recent posts on this thread.  I was thinking about creating a new thread but I might as well ask the question here.

If demographics and nostalgia are the main drivers of OA buying and pricing, who is buying '50s Sci Fi art?  I am referring not only to the Frazetta Flash Gordon cover, but also to the more regular Williamson cover that still fetched a respectful 30k plus at CLink.  I mean, these comics were published in the '50s.  Somebody who was 13 then is about 80 today....Are these really still nostalgia-driven purchases?  At the same time, one can hardly tell that these covers refer to broadly recognised mythos like Spider-Man or the Avengers, as would be the case of early Ditko or Kirby on those issues, so also context hardly applies.

So my question is, are there collectors who are driven not by nostalgia, but by the sheer quality of the art, even bejond context (I can't imagine exactly what context the Williamson cover could refer to...).  And if that is the case, doesn't that provide a favourable outlook for prices of good quality OA in the future, even beyond nostalgia and context considerations?

Carlo

Can't say specifically to the Williamson cover but alot of the 50s art that goes for high prices are from EC Comics. Those were started to be reprinted in the 70s and 80s the best is Russ Cochran's The Complete EC Library from '79-'86. Many kids got their first exposure to EC books thru Russ' reprints and for many that is their nostalgia period of reading comics. 

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1 hour ago, Carlo M said:

I have one question to the Group related to demographics and OA price predictions, somewhat related to the recent posts on this thread.  I was thinking about creating a new thread but I might as well ask the question here.

If demographics and nostalgia are the main drivers of OA buying and pricing, who is buying '50s Sci Fi art?  I am referring not only to the Frazetta Flash Gordon cover, but also to the more regular Williamson cover that still fetched a respectful 30k plus at CLink.  I mean, these comics were published in the '50s.  Somebody who was 13 then is about 80 today....Are these really still nostalgia-driven purchases?  At the same time, one can hardly tell that these covers refer to broadly recognised mythos like Spider-Man or the Avengers, as would be the case of early Ditko or Kirby on those issues, so also context hardly applies.

So my question is, are there collectors who are driven not by nostalgia, but by the sheer quality of the art, even bejond context (I can't imagine exactly what context the Williamson cover could refer to...).  And if that is the case, doesn't that provide a favourable outlook for prices of good quality OA in the future, even beyond nostalgia and context considerations?

Carlo

Respectfully, 

what would that same williamson piece go for if it was the cover of a 1950s issue of Popular Mechanics?

For the same image (and therefore identical quality of rendering),

Its worth more as an EC cover than as a Charlton cover, worth more as a comic book cover than as a pulp cover, and worth more as a pulp cover than as a magazine (Popular Mechanics) cover.

SAME image but

EC>Charlton>Comic>Pulp>Mag.

The idea that quality of rendering alone is a significant driver is horsebleep when you sit down and analyze it.   Its a factor that decides how close the value is to the floor or ceiling for that kind of work, but it does NOT drive the floor or ceiling itself in any significant way.

I could also take that same image and play with the date and get very different results (ie 50s scifi worth much more than 90s scifi, same image).

 

Edited by Bronty
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1 hour ago, Carlo M said:

I have one question to the Group related to demographics and OA price predictions, somewhat related to the recent posts on this thread.  I was thinking about creating a new thread but I might as well ask the question here.

If demographics and nostalgia are the main drivers of OA buying and pricing, who is buying '50s Sci Fi art?  I am referring not only to the Frazetta Flash Gordon cover, but also to the more regular Williamson cover that still fetched a respectful 30k plus at CLink.  I mean, these comics were published in the '50s.  Somebody who was 13 then is about 80 today....Are these really still nostalgia-driven purchases?  At the same time, one can hardly tell that these covers refer to broadly recognised mythos like Spider-Man or the Avengers, as would be the case of early Ditko or Kirby on those issues, so also context hardly applies.

So my question is, are there collectors who are driven not by nostalgia, but by the sheer quality of the art, even bejond context (I can't imagine exactly what context the Williamson cover could refer to...).  And if that is the case, doesn't that provide a favourable outlook for prices of good quality OA in the future, even beyond nostalgia and context considerations?

Carlo

I have a Winsor McCay editorial cartoon, never read that paper or even know when it was published (I tried to find it in the paper but could not.)

I buy most of my art based on aesthetics and not nostalgia. I want an Alex Raymond and never knowingly read anything he drew until I saw his work. If may be the main driver for others but never assume people all think like you do. There are some pretty wacky drivers out her off the beaten path! I have my eye on some European art and never heard of the guy until I saw a sample of his work (I have one and want more).

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6 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Respectfully, 

what would that same williamson piece go for if it was the cover of a 1950s issue of Popular Mechanics?

For the same image (and therefore identical quality of rendering),

Its worth more as an EC cover than as a Charlton cover, worth more as a comic book cover than as a pulp cover, and worth more as a pulp cover than as a magazine (Popular Mechanics) cover.

SAME image but

EC>Charlton>Comic>Pulp>Mag.

The idea that quality of rendering alone is a significant driver is horsebleep when you sit down and analyze it.   Its a factor that decides how close the value is to the floor or ceiling for that kind of work, but it does NOT drive the floor or ceiling itself in any significant way.

I could also take that same image and play with the date and get very different results (ie 50s scifi worth much more than 90s scifi, same image).

 

Ok, I get that and I am with you.  The question still is: who deems these pieces popular, or more relevant context-wise? The people who originally read those and are now 80? Or later readers, who determinde later, based on some objective parameters, that a certain run or publisher is higher quality than another?

I still think it would be interesting to know a bit more about the profile of buyers of '50s art.  Are they readers of the '80s reprints, on the spur of nostalgia, like suggested by the previous post?  Or more mature readers, who have expanded their interest area and somehow determined the quality of the content?  Knowing the profile of those buyers might tell us a bit more about the future buyers of super heroes art.

Talking about my own experience, as a Marvel-only-super-heroes-only-European-buyer,  I have recently bought one EC Weird Science Archive trade and truly enjoyed it based on the quality of what I was reading.  I could see myself exploring more these types of comics and  one day buy one piece of OA from one of those issues, and yet I would have no idea that EC was more popular than Charlton.

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5 minutes ago, Bird said:

I have a Winsor McCay editorial cartoon, never read that paper or even know when it was published (I tried to find it in the paper but could not.)

I buy most of my art based on aesthetics and not nostalgia. I want an Alex Raymond and never knowingly read anything he drew until I saw his work. If may be the main driver for others but never assume people all think like you do. There are some pretty wacky drivers out her off the beaten path! I have my eye on some European art and never heard of the guy until I saw a sample of his work (I have one and want more).

I got into Flash Gordon thru the 40s serials then the Filmation Flash Gordon which I found out was inspired by the Flash Gordon newspaper strips by Alex Raymond. Early 80s was the sweet spot for my nostalgia. I would say 75 percent of my collecting is around nostalgia the rest is artistic. Last year I got a Dan Smith piece published around 1920, zero nostalgia but love the artwork. Discovered the artist just a few years ago.

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Great discussion. I think it’s important to stay true to my personal collecting interests and not let auction results affect my decision-making.   Bottom-line, I’d rather make a smaller profit on art that I love than a larger profit on art I don’t love.  I’ve learned that only the auction houses win when I have to sell a piece that I quickly grew tired of, upgraded or let go to fund another purchase.

Short-term auction results can be deceiving. I remember collecting Golden Age comics 15 years ago when auctions for Silver/Bronze Age CGC 9.8s were breaking records every month and coveted by the masses, supported by “younger demographics” and “aging GA collectors”.  Sure, high-grade AF 15s continued to soar but vast majority of the hottest CGC books like Hulk 181 have dropped back to earth.  Also, I think today’s auctions are somewhat diluted by many collectors/dealers who are either paring down, funding new purchases, trading up or taking gains— consigning pieces that are castoffs, least desired multiples and/or in the “lower %” tiers (using the Andy Robbins method of prioritization).  Whether we’re taking BWS Conan or Guardians of the Galaxy art, the best examples rarely come to auction because, well, they don’t have to.  So, if the auctions appear to discount artists/titles/genres that you want to own, then maybe celebrate (quietly) and buy what you love for a little less...if it seems you’re constantly chasing pieces that are “just out of reach”, then be wary of overpaying (ie, the winner’s curse) when your ship finally comes in.  

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8 hours ago, Bird said:

There are tons of cognitive distortions (overgeneralization, selective arbitration, arbitrary inference, etc) and cognitive heuristics (self-serving bias, base-rate fallacy, etc) in this thread.

What about cognitive dissonance? :) 

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2 hours ago, GreatEscape said:

Whether we’re taking BWS Conan or Guardians of the Galaxy art, the best examples rarely come to auction because, well, they don’t have to.

When I read this my first thought was how many of my most coveted/expensive/nostalgic pieces came from private deals vs auction houses--I'd estimate around 90% came from private transactions (that includes private dealer purchases).

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