Black Hole Collections 1 1

[Panelfan1]

5 hours ago, mister_not_so_nice said:

Why is the "T" upside down?

It's physics.

[▫️]

Everything eventually escapes and comes to light one day unless it’s destroyed or just lost in storage somewhere. I doubt anyone has anything they wouldn’t sell for 10x market value. Maybe they are wealthy and don’t need the money so would they turn down 100x market value? I’ve seen so many pieces on CAF with amusing notes in the For Sale Status like “Going to the grave with me” etc. only for them to receive a crazy offer and poof. I have a nostalgic grail that I used to believe would never leave me. Paid 4k 3 years ago and was recently offered 15k. I passed but if the offer was 5k higher I would have had to pause and consider. And had it been 10k higher? Then real world practical purchase options start coming to mind. 25k is a car for my daughter who will be driving age soon.

I actually have one piece from someone who proclaimed it would never be for sale at any price. And I got it from him in a trade. All it took was a few years for his excitement of owning it to wear off. He still loved it but there is always something else on the horizon.

[hmendryk]

7 hours ago, Oddball said:

Everything eventually escapes and comes to light one day unless it’s destroyed or just lost in storage somewhere. I doubt anyone has anything they wouldn’t sell for 10x market value. Maybe they are wealthy and don’t need the money so would they turn down 100x market value? I’ve seen so many pieces on CAF with amusing notes in the For Sale Status like “Going to the grave with me” etc. only for them to receive a crazy offer and poof. I have a nostalgic grail that I used to believe would never leave me. Paid 4k 3 years ago and was recently offered 15k. I passed but if the offer was 5k higher I would have had to pause and consider. And had it been 10k higher? Then real world practical purchase options start coming to mind. 25k is a car for my daughter who will be driving age soon.

I actually have one piece from someone who proclaimed it would never be for sale at any price. And I got it from him in a trade. All it took was a few years for his excitement of owning it to wear off. He still loved it but there is always something else on the horizon.

I have been offered almost 20X what I paid for a piece and passed. I do not consider mine a black hole collection because I do post it on CAF. Up until recently I have never sold anything from my collection. I am planning on giving up some of my lesser desirable pieces to streamline my collection a bit but I have no plans to let go what I consider my prize pieces.

[vodou]

11 hours ago, Oddball said:

I doubt anyone has anything they wouldn’t sell for 10x market value.

This is your way of stating that anything is replaceable. I guess. But maybe not. Most of us have lots of stuff we like but don't love, good offer comes in and BOOM! off it goes, for a lot less than 10x market value too. But that same or much, much better offer if it was for certain single pieces the answer is no. 10x. 100x, Whatever x. Because I have enough income and other stuff to sell to make it rain, unless we're talking a straight trade my art for your matching kidney that I need transplanted today. Living to see tomorrow trumps all (duh).

The easiest way to avoid tempting offers on things you don't want to part with is: don't share that you own it to begin with.

You can always share instead at another time, but you can never un-share.

[▫️]

I believe most collectors regardless of their financial situation will sell their most beloved piece at the right price. They may not even realize they were open to it until that ridiculous cash or trade offer is made. Of course there are always exceptions.

Edited December 11, 2018 by Oddball

[vodou]

1 hour ago, Oddball said:

I believe most collectors...

Most collectors, most people are, heck human nature itself is...weak.

This herd mentality and behavior is a wonderful thing for the exception(al), the contrarian.

I am contrarian

[delekkerste]

8 hours ago, hmendryk said:

I have been offered almost 20X what I paid for a piece and passed. 

Was your purchase price anywhere near current FMV, though?  20x historical purchase price could easily be 1x FMV today.

3 hours ago, Oddball said:

I believe most collectors regardless of their financial situation will sell their most beloved piece at the right price. They may not even realize they were open to it until that ridiculous cash or trade offer is made. Of course there are always exceptions.

At some price, anything in my collection is theoretically for sale.  But, 10x FMV would not be enough in some cases - if someone offered me that for my X-Men #172 cover, I would turn it down in a heartbeat.  On the other hand, if someone offered me 100x FMV for it, it would be out the door in a heartbeat.   That said, no one is going to offer me 10x, let alone 100x, so these discussions fall into the realm of mental mas-...tication.  

[Ironmandrd]

Not sure how we got on this specific point again (yes, unfortunately often "the realm of mental mas-...bation").   But everybody's right to some degree on this one. 

Yes, there are the "grail today, gone tomorrow" folks. 

Yes, for the right exorbitant price, collectors may sell a piece that they otherwise wouldn't have sold or wouldn't have thought they'd sell. 

And yes, the exceptions apply as well.  Certain (many?) collectors have a small number of pieces that for various reasons they really would not sell today, tomorrow or on the future even if they were offered "realistic crazy money" (meaning a high multiple of value but it's unrealistic to use numbers that have no basis in reality (eg, see also Gene's post above)---no Russian Oligarch is ever showing up at your house to offer you a $1 million for your $25k cover/splash--so let's try to differentiate theory/fantasy from reality--even 10x FMV only comes along once in a blue moon).  

And as a further explanation to the "everything has a price" view:   for the handful of pieces in my own collection that I literally would never sell, it's not a question of how much profit I am passing up or how much over FMV I would get, the comparison is how much money would it take for me not to be unhappy about not owning the piece for the next 5, 10, 15 years.  And the answer is that for certain HIGHLY NOSTALGIC pieces, my peace of mind, like the commercial, is "priceless."

And by the way, as Gene also states, a better comparison is multiples from FMV not multiples from what was paid.  Heck, I have paid 10X cost a number of times--no problem.  On the flipside, this year I paid someone more than 8X their cost --but their cost was what they just paid the week before in an auction (which therefore arguably was FMV)--this one hurt somewhat.

[hmendryk]

1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

Was your purchase price anywhere near current FMV, though?  20x historical purchase price could easily be 1x FMV today.

 

I do not claim to have the expertise on what is FMV for a piece as many in this forum. But I really believe that I originally paid a fair price for this particular panel page. Certainly I saw similar art for the same price (and pick up some at the time). But current value, no it was no where near current value. However I suspect that the 20X figure is still higher than FMV today. But like others have pointed out, I would never be able to replace it with something I like more. And while the financially selling it would be a good deal, it just would not raise enough money to have a significant impact on my current life.

[vodou]

10 minutes ago, hmendryk said:

 And while the financially selling it would be a good deal, it just would not raise enough money to have a significant impact on my current life.

Nobody is talking about how much fun it is to bat away ever increasing (and insane) amounts for something from the same person. I'll admit to enjoying, even more when they start getting mad, letting their entitlement show, and telling me how I'll never get even half that from anyone else ever now or ever in the future. To that...whatevs, it ain't all about money

[Rick2you2]

4 hours ago, vodou said:

Most collectors, most people are, heck human nature itself is...weak.

This herd mentality and behavior is a wonderful thing for the exception(al), the contrarian.

I am contrarian

Tell me about it.

[thethedew]

13 hours ago, vodou said:

The easiest way to avoid tempting offers on things you don't want to part with is: don't share that you own it to begin with.

THIS.  This is the primal instinct of the true Black Hole Collector. 
They're not worried about theft.  They're worried about being troubled with other people's offers.

[vodou]

7 hours ago, thethedew said:

THIS.  This is the primal instinct of the true Black Hole Collector. 
They're not worried about theft.  They're worried about being troubled with other people's offers.

 

[Peter L]

On 12/11/2018 at 2:26 PM, delekkerste said:

Was your purchase price anywhere near current FMV, though?  20x historical purchase price could easily be 1x FMV today.

At some price, anything in my collection is theoretically for sale.  But, 10x FMV would not be enough in some cases - if someone offered me that for my X-Men #172 cover, I would turn it down in a heartbeat.  On the other hand, if someone offered me 100x FMV for it, it would be out the door in a heartbeat.   That said, no one is going to offer me 10x, let alone 100x, so these discussions fall into the realm of mental mas-...tication.  

I never thought I would sell anything.  But as time goes on, and I don't have places to put stuff anymore, my opinions are changing.  I would probably sell anything I own for the right price.  I agree with Gene though.  Some pieces have great sentimental value to me so it would need to be enough money to change my lifestyle, which may be doubtful.  I don't look at it as multiples of FMV.  I see it as is there a better use for this money than enjoying this picture.  

I was just transferring some art to new mylar and boards I got and the new archival boxes and it did give me a good feeling, more than just looking at my CAF.  It was fun to look at just like when reading great comic stories.  

[vodou]

This one was not destined for the Black Hole, could barely stay hidden for even two years.

Any chance this time it can top that prior huge $14k? I'm thinking no, not by the margin it would need for the relist to make sense.

But then again, relisted with the same venue, with just enough time for some memories to fade, did it really even sell the first time?

Hmmm...

 

[GeneticNinja]

On 12/11/2018 at 12:19 AM, Oddball said:

Everything eventually escapes and comes to light one day unless it’s destroyed or just lost in storage somewhere. I doubt anyone has anything they wouldn’t sell for 10x market value. Maybe they are wealthy and don’t need the money so would they turn down 100x market value? I’ve seen so many pieces on CAF with amusing notes in the For Sale Status like “Going to the grave with me” etc. only for them to receive a crazy offer and poof. I have a nostalgic grail that I used to believe would never leave me. Paid 4k 3 years ago and was recently offered 15k. I passed but if the offer was 5k higher I would have had to pause and consider. And had it been 10k higher? Then real world practical purchase options start coming to mind. 25k is a car for my daughter who will be driving age soon.

I actually have one piece from someone who proclaimed it would never be for sale at any price. And I got it from him in a trade. All it took was a few years for his excitement of owning it to wear off. He still loved it but there is always something else on the horizon.

I hope this is true. I was after an early Queen & Country cover. I got into the series too late and it was sold. I've never seen it on CAF. I guess it's in a Black Hole Collection. I stopped looking for it a while ago.

[Carl Elvis]

I sold a page to a Black Hole collector (who will remain nameless), and what shook me is the realization that this page is gone forever. We will never see it again, not on CAF, not anywhere. Even when this person is gone their family has absolutely no need to ever sell and I imagine would keep the collection private.

Edited May 2, 2021 by Carl Elvis

[DeadpoolJr.]

2 hours ago, Carl Elvis said:

I sold a page to a Black Hole collector (who will remain nameless), and what shook me is the realization that this page is gone forever. We will never see it again, not on CAF, not anywhere. Even when this person is gone their family has absolutely no need to ever sell and I imagine would keep the collection private.

Does private necessarily mean Black Hole collector though? I know tons of deals are done between collectors, and dealers that are private including big pieces that would be a highlight for auctions if made public. I think it would be better to say that while all black hole collectors are private with their collections and dealings, not all people who are private with their collection are black hole collectors and will sell and trade with others.  

[Rick2you2]

5 hours ago, Carl Elvis said:

I sold a page to a Black Hole collector (who will remain nameless), and what shook me is the realization that this page is gone forever. We will never see it again, not on CAF, not anywhere. Even when this person is gone their family has absolutely no need to ever sell and I imagine would keep the collection private.

Actually, when that person is gone, it might very well show up again. I doubt it carries the beloved memories of its owner who cherished it when he was alive, so it just becomes baggage to the descendants (unless the deceased was the artist, and the family wants it for that reason). Wanna buy a “rare” Hummel? Not that hard; young people don’t care. 

[hmendryk]

In 2018 I did a study to try to determine what percentage of original comic book art was what I thought as "dark art". That is art that does not appear anywhere on the Internet but instead was in what many describe as a "black hole" collection. For the study I limited myself to cover art. Primarily this was for practical reasons as the the much more numerous interior art would have made the search for all of them all the more time consuming. With covers I used two methodologies.

The first method was to examine various artists who worked from the mid 80's or more recently. That is the period when art was generally returned to the artist and known to have some value if sold. The artists I used were Andy Kurbert, Bill Sienkiewicz, Brian Bolland, Dale Keown, Dave Gibbons, Greg Capullo, John Romita Jr, Mark Bagley, Mike Mignola, Ron Garney, Sam Kieth, Stan Sakai, Terry Dodson, Tim Sale and Todd McFarlane. Artists that I thought were popular enough to be regularly collected. I then used CGD to find all the cover work they did during the period. Then I would search to try to find covers by these artists. The search would include CAF and various dealers but basically anywhere on the Internet. When completed I would then know for each artist what percentage of the cover art I was able to locate on the Internet.

The first method excluded artist who worked in periods where original art may have not have been returned to the artist, perhaps even destroyed or discarded. To get around that problem I then used Heritage archives to find what cover art existed for various artists. Of course some cover art may had been sold outside of Heritage, but I would at least know these particular cover did exists. The artists I selected for this method were Al Aison, Al Feldstein, Barry Smith, Carmine Infantino, Dave Cockrum, Ayers, Frank Frazetta, Frank Miller, Fred Ray, Geen Colan, George Perez, George Tuska, Gil Kane, Jack Davis, Jack Kirby, Jim Aparo, Jim Starlin, Joe Kubert, John Buscema, John Byrne, John Romita Sr, John Severin, Johnny Craig, Marie Severin, Mike Zeck, Murphy Anderson, Neal Adams, Nich Cardy, Rich Buckler, Ross Andru, Russ Heath, Sal Buscema, Steve Ditko, Wally Wood and Will Eisner.

The results from the first method were fairly consistent with most in the range 20 to 35% of the cover art being found on the Internet. There were 3 outliers grouped around 10% (Andy Kubert, Greg Capullo and Sam Kieth). I cannot say for certain, but I wonder if these artists have kept some of their art.

The results from the second method were broader ranging from 5 to 45%. This is not too surprising as the number of cover art being searched for was smaller than in the first method. However most artists fell in the range of 15 to 35% cover art found.

While I do not claim that my results hold for all cover art, but it is interesting that in all cases examined the majority of cover art cannot be found on the Internet.