Movie Hype is a PITA...list the books that are dropping fast 2 2

[newshane]

Movie speculation? It seems as if most people are speaking from the perspective of a seller trying to flip a book for profit. 

Nothing wrong with that. 

But as a collector, it's even worse! Every time a movie appearance is announced, another silver age key will grow far beyond what I'm willing to pay for a common book. It's not that I can't afford it. My problem is that the paying the "movie tax" on an issue makes it a poor deal, especially considering the type of Golden Age books I could buy for the same price. 

 

Edited December 13, 2018 by newshane

[Heronext]

What is it about so-called "movie hype" that seems to irritate so many people, so often?  Can anyone explain (a) what "movie hype" is and (b) why it is such a bad thing?

Comics have always risen in value, sometimes a large percentage over a short period of time.  "Movie hype" is not driving the values of pre-code horror.  It isn't driving the value of good-girl covers.

Before comic book movies were so common, what was driving these rises in value if not some other type of "hype"?  Do you not want comic books to rise in value at all?  Is that the issue?

[lizards2]

8 minutes ago, Heronext said:

 

Comics have always risen in value, sometimes a large percentage over a short period of time.  "Movie hype" is not driving the values of pre-code horror.  It isn't driving the value of good-girl covers.

 

That's all Rick

[grebal]

Dry humor.  Wrong audience, apparently.

[1Cool]

1 hour ago, Heronext said:

What is it about so-called "movie hype" that seems to irritate so many people, so often?  Can anyone explain (a) what "movie hype" is and (b) why it is such a bad thing?

Comics have always risen in value, sometimes a large percentage over a short period of time.  "Movie hype" is not driving the values of pre-code horror.  It isn't driving the value of good-girl covers.

Before comic book movies were so common, what was driving these rises in value if not some other type of "hype"?  Do you not want comic books to rise in value at all?  Is that the issue?

Good question.  Comics have in the past shot up in price but usually due to demand exceeding supply and it was due to an artist getting hot or a radioactive turtle #1 being hard to find.  The current market doesn't care about demand - it doesn't care about supply - it doesn't care about quality - it cares about hype and speculations fueling a surge toward one book and once that book is consumed (ie all cheap copies are found and sold off) then another rumor spurs the market to jump on to the next hot book.  People that are slow movers in the industry probably hate it even though they love to make money on the books they are holding in reserve, a lot of the time a book will explode and be back to earth by the time they acquire a couple copies or notice all their copies are gone at low prices.  The general buying public must be going along with the ride since I can't imagine all the high priced copies of a hot book get purchased by other dealers and the hot movie book craze doesn't seem to be slowing at all.

[1Cool]

Why is Golden Age getting such a big surge in price?  Pre-code horror has been in demand for years but why this year has it exploded?  The old guy con booths full of Golden Age books that I use to pass by are now being swarmed and the booths are starting to look bare after a crazy year.  Are the older collectors (55 - 75 year old guys) fed up with the modern market and retreated into the security of the scarce Golden Age books?

Edited December 13, 2018 by 1Cool

[ygogolak]

22 hours ago, valiantman said:

A king?  Seems more like extra lunch money when a $1 book goes to $10 overnight.

That's TV flipping now. 4-5 years ago, TV show books would be an easy $20 and they were plentiful.

Movie books on the other hand still hold more value than $10. Except Valiant movie books. Those are still $1.

[valiantman]

2 hours ago, ygogolak said:

That's TV flipping now. 4-5 years ago, TV show books would be an easy $20 and they were plentiful.

Movie books on the other hand still hold more value than $10. Except Valiant movie books. Those are still $1.

Yep, the Valiant movie book is $1. Because you're such a swell guy, I'll pay you $2.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/332899698999?nordt=true&rt=nc

[ygogolak]

1 minute ago, valiantman said:

Yep, the Valiant movie book is $1. Because you're such a swell guy, I'll pay you $2.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/332899698999?nordt=true&rt=nc

LOL, I mean the other guys. Chainsaw and Ax.

[justafan]

I'm just waiting it out. wanted to upgrade my ASM 13 but kept putting it off since I couldn't find a copy in the grade I wanted. finally decided to focus on it and 2 months later mysterio is announced as the villian in the next movie.  the good part was copies came out of the woodwork. the bad news is the prices shot up 5x what they were. 

I'll wait until the hysteria dies down and just focus on other books. glad I got my ASM 101 in 9.8 a few years back for what I thought was a ridiculous amount $3k. seeing it go for over $14k in the clink auction makes me feel better and almost makes me want to sell it and try to buy it back in a few years. 

[Westy Steve]

It seems that the effect of movie hype on books is a zero sum game.  For every winner, there will be a series of losers with losses about equal to the wins.  And if that is true, unless you are actively putting serious effort into playing the movie hype game, the only way you can win is to already own something that gets hyped, sell for a gain, wait for it to drop, and then buy it back.  The problem is that many of us aren't buying them back, so the net result is that our collections, which can be thought of as heterogeneous clusters or pockets of good books, are being distributed out more, so that the large and wonderful collections are being frittered away.

[Artboy99]

On ‎2018‎/‎12‎/‎13 at 8:10 AM, Heronext said:

What is it about so-called "movie hype" that seems to irritate so many people, so often?  Can anyone explain (a) what "movie hype" is and (b) why it is such a bad thing?

Comics have always risen in value, sometimes a large percentage over a short period of time.  "Movie hype" is not driving the values of pre-code horror.  It isn't driving the value of good-girl covers.

Before comic book movies were so common, what was driving these rises in value if not some other type of "hype"?  Do you not want comic books to rise in value at all?  Is that the issue?

Movie "hype" is the exposure of news or information about upcoming film projects whether they are released or not. The "buzz" created by the discussion. There isn't anything bad about the hype of the movies/ TV shows what is bad is how it affects the value of collectibles. I don't mind seeing comic books go up in value, but the movie "hype" creates an un-natural increase on comic books. A perfect example is Marvel Super-heroes #13 the first appearance of Carol Danvers.

2018

 (2)$12,401Hi$3,870Lo

   Dec-13-2018$12,401Cert# 2003912006 

   Jan-18-2018$3,870Cert# 0042275020 

 

2017

 (1)$3,825Hi 

   Apr-12-2017$3,825Cert# 0042275020 

 

2016

 (1)$1,576Hi 

   Feb-19-2016$1,576Cert# 1039482012

In 2016 a CGC 9.4 sold for $1576, now apply movie "hype" and in 2018 a CGC 9.4 sold for $12,401!! That increase is far more than the increase of say a major key book like Hulk 181.

It should follow a more natural progression upwards. Also consider the book isn't really a major key of a major character so I question if it should have much of an increase at all.

A cgc 9.6 copy of Marvel Super-heroes #13 sold for over $30,000, is that book really worth more than an Amazing Fantasy 15 CGC 4.5 or an Incredible Hulk #1 CGC 6.0??? NO WAY, but movie "hype" makes it so. It is ridiculous and that is why it irritates so many people.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

On 12/12/2018 at 11:45 AM, blazingbob said:

On 12/12/2018 at 11:41 AM, 1Cool said:

People flipping books should be paying some kick backs to all the people starting all these movie rumors since the market would be pretty dull if the movie hot books disappeared tomorrow.  The instantly hot books make it a market where anybody with some pre hype knowledge can grab books for $1 and flip for $20.  I'm not debating the whole process seems strange and destined for failure but from a making money stand point is genius.

So you condone insider trading?

There is nothing wrong with insider trading. The fact that it is illegal in certain markets is merely a reflection of the "it's not fair!!" cadre and the lawyers and politicians who benefit from keeping it illegal.

[valiantman]

On 12/13/2018 at 11:11 AM, 1Cool said:

Why is Golden Age getting such a big surge in price?  Pre-code horror has been in demand for years but why this year has it exploded?  The old guy con booths full of Golden Age books that I use to pass by are now being swarmed and the booths are starting to look bare after a crazy year.  Are the older collectors (55 - 75 year old guys) fed up with the modern market and retreated into the security of the scarce Golden Age books?

I think that there is a segment of collectors who have always "done the math".  When modern books were $2 each and a few of them become $10 or $20 books, you had to decide "do I want to spend $100 on 50 comics, or do I want to spend $100 on a couple of pre-code horror books that haven't gone up in decades?"

It's easy to see how pre-code horror was overlooked (for decades), because the math made more sense to most collectors to get books that had the potential to go up to 10 times their value quickly.  Doing the math in the past kept a lot of collectors in the bargain bins, rather than the $100+ book display cases.

Today, instead of seeing modern books as $2 each, you see that the only "good" modern books are extreme variants that sell for $500 or $5,000 each.  You have to decide "do I want to spend $500 on a recent variant, or do I want to spend $500 on a 60+ year old pre-code horror book that looks cool and has seen an increase in values and popularity in recent years?"

Obviously, for the collectors "doing the math", the Golden Age has some significant bargains relative to the Modern market, and many of the Golden Age books will still be bargains even after they double in price from where they've already risen today.  It blows my mind that it ever became possible to buy 10 copies of 75+ year old mid-grade Action Comics #20-somethings for the same price as one copy of an Amazing Spider-man or Batman variant from 2000-something.  It's not like they still print Golden Age books... but modern variants, on the other hand, just get "rarer" and "pricier" while they're still rolling off the printer with wet ink.

People who "do the math" usually make good decisions, and lately, those who have done the math and followed the results have found themselves in the market for classics. 

Edited December 14, 2018 by valiantman

[ygogolak]

On 12/13/2018 at 10:10 AM, Heronext said:

What is it about so-called "movie hype" that seems to irritate so many people, so often?  Can anyone explain (a) what "movie hype" is and (b) why it is such a bad thing?

Comics have always risen in value, sometimes a large percentage over a short period of time.  "Movie hype" is not driving the values of pre-code horror.  It isn't driving the value of good-girl covers.

Before comic book movies were so common, what was driving these rises in value if not some other type of "hype"?  Do you not want comic books to rise in value at all?  Is that the issue?

3 hours ago, Artboy99 said:

Movie "hype" is the exposure of news or information about upcoming film projects whether they are released or not. The "buzz" created by the discussion. There isn't anything bad about the hype of the movies/ TV shows what is bad is how it affects the value of collectibles. I don't mind seeing comic books go up in value, but the movie "hype" creates an un-natural increase on comic books. A perfect example is Marvel Super-heroes #13 the first appearance of Carol Danvers.

You keep focusing on one book. Did you miss out on this book or something?
If you look at one collectible, in any market, sports cards, dolls, cards, etc....there will always be something like this.

 

[Artboy99]

17 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

You keep focusing on one book. Did you miss out on this book or something?
If you look at one collectible, in any market, sports cards, dolls, cards, etc....there will always be something like this.

 

it is a recent example of what the discussion is about. I don't care about the book at all other than it provides context to the discussion.

[musicmeta]

On 12/12/2018 at 11:02 AM, valiantman said:

I agree with this sentiment, but I think a worse problem in the industry is recent variants selling for $300+ when they have zero qualities that matter long term.  The first Shang Chi will always be the first Shang Chi, but the latest low-print variant will not ever be new again, other variants will be lower-print, and the coolest art will get cooler when the artist does a more deluxe version of his/her most popular selling designs.  If you had to put $300+ into something, there's at least SOME merit in a 40+ year old first appearance.  There's only a hot potato of bad news being tossed around in the barely dry ink modern market.

Well stated! 

[ygogolak]

3 minutes ago, Artboy99 said:

it is a recent example of what the discussion is about. I don't care about the book at all other than it provides context to the discussion.

OK, so let me grab to "random" books then that are movie hyped.

Incredible Hulk #271 9.8 - 1st Rocket Raccoon

2011 (high) - $64

2012 (movie announced) - $350

2014 (movie release) - $1,250

2018 (high) - $575

Iron Man #55 9.8

2011 (high) - $1,800

2012 (movie announced) - $3,219

2014 (movie release) - $5,155

2018 (high) - $8,300

 

So, what these two instances show is that while there was movie "hype", the characters have sustained themselves in the pop culture world. At least for now. You are comparing prices stating that a movie hype" book should be worth 10% of what it was worth prior to a movie.

 

[Artboy99]

1 minute ago, ygogolak said:

OK, so let me grab to "random" books then that are movie hyped.

Incredible Hulk #271 9.8 - 1st Rocket Raccoon

2011 (high) - $64

2012 (movie announced) - $350

2014 (movie release) - $1,250

2018 (high) - $575

Iron Man #55 9.8

2011 (high) - $1,800

2012 (movie announced) - $3,219

2014 (movie release) - $5,155

2018 (high) - $8,300

 

So, what these two instances show is that while there was movie "hype", the characters have sustained themselves in the pop culture world. At least for now. You are comparing prices stating that a movie hype" book should be worth 10% of what it was worth prior to a movie.

 

I am saying that those who buy the books during movie hype should be careful as few examples hold their value after the film, the Incredible Hulk 271 you posted above is an example..

I think it is important to also note that neither of the examples you posted are at the level of Marvel Super-heroes 13 "hype" escalation which is why I am specifically discussing that particular book.

[ygogolak]

1 minute ago, Artboy99 said:

I am saying that those who buy the books during movie hype should be careful as few examples hold their value after the film, the Incredible Hulk 271 you posted above is an example..

I think it is important to also note that neither of the examples you posted are at the level of Marvel Super-heroes 13 "hype" escalation which is why I am specifically discussing that particular book.

Sure, I would never buy during movie hype. But, as you glossed over Iron Man #55 has only risen in value since the original movie appearance.