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X-Men 1, a risky buy?
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47 posts in this topic

5 hours ago, 90sChild said:

I made this post in the AF#15 thread but it still applies more to X-Men #1 than anything else.

We are in a cyclical speculator selling to speculator pattern.  My problem with comics as investments is that unlike the stock market, you can't short them when they are overvalued.  Think a Hulk 181 in 9.4 isn't worth $10000?  Too bad, you can't do anything about it.  Nobody will sell at a loss so there is an endless cycle of price increases.  
The group of speculators who banked on Disney buying fox hit their gold mine, they have to sell to the next group of speculators willing to buy that are hoping for some huge movie related news which people are already expecting.  Who will those speculators sell to?  A new group of speculators that didn't see fantastic four or x-men MCU movies coming?  With each cycle the pie shrinks more and more as I think the MCU is pretty much reached full exposure to the public at this point.  I don't think it can continue forever but we'll see I guess.  Based on my experience in stocks the best time to sell is when the market has reached a level of euphoric optimism.
 

I agree to a point, I think that your example is not the case with the higher grade silver age keys, I think the numbers on these books are low and most are in collectors hands , I feel like  flippers are not taking the risks on mega high value books. Dealers on the other hand definitely are responsible for  some of the churn. I know there are a couple high value flippers , even here on the boards there are a couple, but not enough to really effect the higher grade market. higher grade silver age keys are pretty rare comparably. What if we are not in a bubble? what if demand for these books is real and here to stay? The internet and some big businesses are hinting  that this is not going away. If you got into major comic keys in early 2000 you are sitting pretty, but even 2011 looked like a great entry point and I think Key books were severely undervalued. Who knows , even a clock is right 2 times a day .2c

Edited by paul747
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On 2/7/2019 at 3:03 PM, 90sChild said:

I made this post in the AF#15 thread but it still applies more to X-Men #1 than anything else.

We are in a cyclical speculator selling to speculator pattern.  My problem with comics as investments is that unlike the stock market, you can't short them when they are overvalued.  Think a Hulk 181 in 9.4 isn't worth $10000?  Too bad, you can't do anything about it.  Nobody will sell at a loss so there is an endless cycle of price increases.  
The group of speculators who banked on Disney buying fox hit their gold mine, they have to sell to the next group of speculators willing to buy that are hoping for some huge movie related news which people are already expecting.  Who will those speculators sell to?  A new group of speculators that didn't see fantastic four or x-men MCU movies coming?  With each cycle the pie shrinks more and more as I think the MCU is pretty much reached full exposure to the public at this point.  I don't think it can continue forever but we'll see I guess.  Based on my experience in stocks the best time to sell is when the market has reached a level of euphoric optimism.
 

I try not to look at comics as investments.... but it's hard not to when prices reach so high!!! I want to realize some gains.

Having said that, even when some books dip, I'm more than happy to hold.  And never sell.  This is after all a HOBBY FIRST, for me :)

 

I really wonder, how many people on this board are purist, and just buy BIG BOOKS, for the whole reason of collecting, and not flipping to make a quick buck.....

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I’m not above the occasional flip. 

One of the benefits of decades of playing with funnybooks is that eventually even I learned a thing or two. If I see an underpriced gem out in the wild I’ll buy it for resale, even if it’s something for which I have no personal affinity. ( like Baker covers, GGA, moderns, or most PCH). 

I still consider myself a Fantastic Four purist! :bigsmile:

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On 2/5/2019 at 9:15 AM, tdotcbc84 said:

We have to keep in mind, anything can be viewed as a bubble.

Reality is, comics are not a commodity, as much as you want it to be.

Very technically speaking, comics (and any collectibles for that matter) are basically useless junk with some cool history to it.

 

But if the comic book industry is alive and well, X-Men 1 is as safe a bet as any book.

If WW3 does happen, I think the value of my X-Men 1 is the last thing I'm worried about, right?

Fine art and classic cars are not commodities either but they hold value... some comics can be viewed as wealth protection imo

With that being said i think x-men #1 is a safe bet for wealth protection Darkowl

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On 2/5/2019 at 5:05 PM, maraxusofkeld said:

The book has been undervalued for years compared to other Marvel SA keys, AF 15, Hulk #1 come to mind. I think if the X-Men that appeared in GS #1 would have made the debut in this issue it would be held in higher regard and more expensive. 

Only undervalued compared to those books because those books were overvalued in the first place.

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On 2/7/2019 at 3:03 PM, 90sChild said:

I made this post in the AF#15 thread but it still applies more to X-Men #1 than anything else.

We are in a cyclical speculator selling to speculator pattern.  My problem with comics as investments is that unlike the stock market, you can't short them when they are overvalued.  Think a Hulk 181 in 9.4 isn't worth $10000?  Too bad, you can't do anything about it.  Nobody will sell at a loss so there is an endless cycle of price increases.  
The group of speculators who banked on Disney buying fox hit their gold mine, they have to sell to the next group of speculators willing to buy that are hoping for some huge movie related news which people are already expecting.  Who will those speculators sell to?  A new group of speculators that didn't see fantastic four or x-men MCU movies coming?  With each cycle the pie shrinks more and more as I think the MCU is pretty much reached full exposure to the public at this point.  I don't think it can continue forever but we'll see I guess.  Based on my experience in stocks the best time to sell is when the market has reached a level of euphoric optimism.
 

I agree. All these books have shot up recently, basically any silver age marvel has increased in value since the MCU. I think now is the optimum selling point, not buying point. The MCU can't be popular forever. And usually things that tend to gain lots of money over short periods of time, lose it easier.

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On 2/4/2019 at 9:06 PM, Darkowl said:

Sounds crazy, right? But it seems like this book has exploded in value in recent times, and It seems like Disney is to blame? Are we now seeing a bubble for what used to be "secure" books/buys?

Honestly, look at the market, and you'll see the cheapest books w/ potential are silver age DC, with the DCEU not doing so hot their books aren't either. DC books are cheap and have just as much potential as marvel keys, but since the movies suck, the books aren't worth much. But with the DCEU doing a little better w/ the success of Aquaman and the surge we saw in his books, people might start considering investing in DC.

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8 hours ago, HuddyBee said:

Honestly, look at the market, and you'll see the cheapest books w/ potential are silver age DC, with the DCEU not doing so hot their books aren't either. DC books are cheap and have just as much potential as marvel keys, but since the movies suck, the books aren't worth much. But with the DCEU doing a little better w/ the success of Aquaman and the surge we saw in his books, people might start considering investing in DC.

I know a lot of people who speculated on DC keys (minor keys too) that got burned. Aquaman and Wonder Woman are both fun films to watch but the DCEU needs some sort of direction on where their movie universe is going. I'm not sure what DCEU can do that the MCU hasn't done yet. 

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5 hours ago, cosmic_surfer said:

I know a lot of people who speculated on DC keys (minor keys too) that got burned. Aquaman and Wonder Woman are both fun films to watch but the DCEU needs some sort of direction on where their movie universe is going. I'm not sure what DCEU can do that the MCU hasn't done yet. 

Aren't there also a ton more DC silver age keys floating around out there?  Supply demand?  I found a site and can't, eh, refind it, that showed estimated print runs for the top 50 books for various years in the 1960's.  DC books dominated, outselling whatever marvels showed up on the bottom of the list at 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 rations.  Marvel didn't seem to get their numbers up until the mid to late 60's.  If key books in the 1960-1965 range are looked at, and DC printed 4x as many books on average, won't there still be a higher number of dc keys out there?

 

 

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5 hours ago, waaaghboss said:

Aren't there also a ton more DC silver age keys floating around out there?  Supply demand?  I found a site and can't, eh, refind it, that showed estimated print runs for the top 50 books for various years in the 1960's.  DC books dominated, outselling whatever marvels showed up on the bottom of the list at 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 rations.  Marvel didn't seem to get their numbers up until the mid to late 60's.  If key books in the 1960-1965 range are looked at, and DC printed 4x as many books on average, won't there still be a higher number of dc keys out there?

 

 

My first instinct is to say no; DC keys are more scarce. That has been what we’ve heard for decades. My personal experience is the same; much harder to track down DC keys, especially in higher grades, even though print runs were higher for DC.

Edited by KirbyJack
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5 hours ago, waaaghboss said:

Aren't there also a ton more DC silver age keys floating around out there?  Supply demand?  I found a site and can't, eh, refind it, that showed estimated print runs for the top 50 books for various years in the 1960's.  DC books dominated, outselling whatever marvels showed up on the bottom of the list at 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 rations.  Marvel didn't seem to get their numbers up until the mid to late 60's.  If key books in the 1960-1965 range are looked at, and DC printed 4x as many books on average, won't there still be a higher number of dc keys out there?

 

 

This might be true, but if you compare the registry its know where close. Just look at Showcase 4 v Amazing Fantasy 15 or Showcase 22 v Fantastic Four 1, or really any dc key to a marvel key. AF 15 - 3106 on census, Showcase 4 - 463 on census, FF 1 - 2194, SC 22 - 992. Way less DC. Just go to a con its almost all expensive overpriced marvel. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, HuddyBee said:

This might be true, but if you compare the registry its know where close. Just look at Showcase 4 v Amazing Fantasy 15 or Showcase 22 v Fantastic Four 1, or really any dc key to a marvel key. AF 15 - 3106 on census, Showcase 4 - 463 on census, FF 1 - 2194, SC 22 - 992. Way less DC. Just go to a con its almost all expensive overpriced marvel. 

 

 

I agree, marvel keys are expensive. DC keys, not so much. I can understand why DC keys are attractive to an “investor” point of view. To each his own.  

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4 hours ago, KirbyJack said:
9 hours ago, waaaghboss said:

Aren't there also a ton more DC silver age keys floating around out there?  Supply demand?  I found a site and can't, eh, refind it, that showed estimated print runs for the top 50 books for various years in the 1960's.  DC books dominated, outselling whatever marvels showed up on the bottom of the list at 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 rations.  Marvel didn't seem to get their numbers up until the mid to late 60's.  If key books in the 1960-1965 range are looked at, and DC printed 4x as many books on average, won't there still be a higher number of dc keys out there?

 

 

My first instinct is to say no; DC keys are more scarce. That has been what we’ve heard for decades. My personal experience is the same; much harder to track down DC keys, especially in higher grades, even though print runs were higher for DC.

@KirbyJack is 100% right.  While DC printed more comics in the early 60's the Marvels were what started a lot of people collecting.  So, of those DC keys, no where near as many were saved rather than read and thrown out as comics were in those days.  Even more so when you talk about high grade.

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1 hour ago, drbanner said:

The problem with the DC Silver Age keys isn't that there are more of them (they're way scarcer than the Marvel keys as already mentioned), it's that they are almost all recycled Golden Age heroes/teams. I can't even think of a single 1st appearance of a major DC character that occurred in the Silver Age?

There certainly aren't too many. Supergirl? Batgirl? Brainiac? Sgt. Rock? Poison Ivy? Not sure any of those would qualify as "major".

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1 hour ago, drbanner said:

The problem with the DC Silver Age keys isn't that there are more of them (they're way scarcer than the Marvel keys as already mentioned), it's that they are almost all recycled Golden Age heroes/teams. I can't even think of a single 1st appearance of a major DC character that occurred in the Silver Age?

I started typing out a list, and then remembered characters like the Creeper arent major characters. :)

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On 2/15/2019 at 2:47 PM, drbanner said:

The problem with the DC Silver Age keys isn't that there are more of them (they're way scarcer than the Marvel keys as already mentioned), it's that they are almost all recycled Golden Age heroes/teams. I can't even think of a single 1st appearance of a major DC character that occurred in the Silver Age?

That is an interesting point. I'd never really thought about that. I guess one would hope major distinctions like Alan Scott v Hal Jordan, or Al Pratt v Ray palmer, would be great enough for people to view them as virtually completely different characters. Although with SC 4, Barry is quite like Jay in that they have the same powers, yet that is one of the few DC keys to be pretty fairly valued. 

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On 2/15/2019 at 2:47 PM, drbanner said:

The problem with the DC Silver Age keys isn't that there are more of them (they're way scarcer than the Marvel keys as already mentioned), it's that they are almost all recycled Golden Age heroes/teams. I can't even think of a single 1st appearance of a major DC character that occurred in the Silver Age?

I think Martian Manhunter, Supergirl and Batgirl are pretty major characters.  Also, the Justice League appears as do the Teen Titans (I know both teams - but still).  Finally, although Green Lantern and Flash are "re-introduced" in the Silver Age (so not totally original concepts) - Hal Jordan and Barry Allen are pretty pivotal characters in the DC universe (much more so than the original Golden Age Characters) and both books are fairly substantial keys (i think both are top 10 silver age keys along with BB28).

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