Thoughts on Marvel and DC Sci-Fi/Horror/Ensemble title #1s 0

[elibowman]

Brave & Bold got me started on these, and then I grabbed some Strange Adventures. Now, I have collections (some small, some large) of all of these titles, and lately I have been trying to grab very early copies of what I call "variety titles" whenever I can get them cheaply enough. To set the parameters, I am talking about Marvel and DC titles. These all started as Sci-Fi or horror or variety/ensemble titles (no single person or team), though most ended up focusing on a hero/team/individual at some point. All of them started in the 50s, and ran for good runs (no 12 issue titles in this bunch). Here is the alphabetical list with my value ranking (1 being the highest valued #1 issue) in parentheses:

 

Brave & Bold (7)

House Of Mystery (6)

House Of Secrets (10)

Journey Into Mystery (1)

My Greatest Adventure (11)

Mystery In Space (9)

Showcase (5)

Strange Adventures (8)

Strange Tales (2)

Tales Of Suspense (4)

Tales To Astonish (3)

 

Am I missing any title? The one that I nearly included was Tales Of The Unexpected, but it didn't seem to fit (the list is heavy on DC anyway). Also, the value ranking is somewhat subjective. GPA data is sparse on some of these, and I am inferring a bit using recent data that is there. The most common grades across the issues with data are 3.0 - 4.0. So, in theory, a book's value might be middle of the pack in 4.0, but would be top of the list if a 9.4 ever came to market. So, again, a bit subjective. 47th OSPG high guide is pretty darn close to this ranking, with only tiny variances (B&B would be 5, Show 6, MIS 7, HOM 9, MGA 10 and HOS 11).

 

But, realistically, the market for the #1 issues of these titles specifically is all over the place. Using GPA, JIM is way up there while MGA and HOS are clearly at the low end. From a census standpoint, the most common books are also ones with the latest start dates: TOS (152 universal graded) and TTA (126). The rarest (according to census) are ST (35) and MGA (37).

 

Again, I am only thinking about the #1s right now. What are your thoughts? Has the market got this correct? Are there market inefficiencies at the low end where good upside exists?

 

Finally, which of these titles are the most important? The Marvel titles clearly latched on to one or two heroes, and all four ended by turning into those specific titles. The DC books took different routes, but also launched and shaped the Silver Age.

[elibowman]

Also, GPA data is consistently above OSPG (again, I am using last year's guide) on all but one of those 11 books. Any guesses on which one has sold under OSPG lately?

[elibowman]

In fairness, I was looking at sales in the 3.0, 3.5, or 4.0 grades as that was where the most data was. When I look at all grades, the book I am referencing does have some sales over OSPG. So, none of these are consistently below, though two books still seem to sell under OSPG more often than not.

Edited March 7, 2019 by elibowman

[elibowman]

Also, I found my current year OSPG (48th), and that doesn't change the value rankings, nor does it give a different picture on whether a book sells below OSPG. So, all comments above are consistent when using the current OSPG.

[flashlites]

From a collector's stand point I've always been curious about these kinds of titles and wondered why they weren't more valuable. Are you asking if we think they might jump up in the near future? Its so hard to say. I've always thought they had potential. I would love to own some of these! I'll have to take a look at the data.

[elibowman]

1 hour ago, flashlites said:

From a collector's stand point I've always been curious about these kinds of titles and wondered why they weren't more valuable. Are you asking if we think they might jump up in the near future? Its so hard to say. I've always thought they had potential. I would love to own some of these! I'll have to take a look at the data.

Really asking about the relative markets for each #1 issue. For instance, JIM is clearly the most expensive (both by GPA and OSPG). Why is it so far in front of the others? I don't think it's age (four books older on this list). I don't think it's purely census (four issues are more rare by census). I don't think it's due to the hero that ultimately took over the title (Thor is great, but he's going up against Cap, Batman, Hulk, etc.). It can't be due to the historical significance of the rest of the run (Thor's 1st app with some prototype books can't compare to the historically significant issues found in some of the other titles). So, why is it so far in front? Certainly there is the Marvel effect, but it's way out in front of TOS, TTA and ST too.  

 

Then, the next logical question (and more important for me as I am trying to acquire many of these books) is which ones are way UNDERvalued? Last 3.5 sale for B&B 1 was under $300....are you kidding me? Same for MGA 1, SA 1 can be had for not much more than that. Feels like there is a big disconnect, and I am wondering why.

 

I agree with you that they seem to be undervalued as a group. #1 issues of titles that changed the Silver Age. Relatively rare books (especially compared to the 1st appearance books that come later in the runs), and some cool horror and sci-fi stories. I am just looking for others opinions on them regarding their desirability and potential for growth.

[flashlites]

You hit the nail on the head. Thor has been consistently the most popular, I think over the years. Bat man has so many other titles and he did not originate in B&B. TOS I believe would always run a distant 2nd or 3rd. Not having looked at all the details I would tend to believe at some point they will become more collectable and sought after. Then the price will climb of course. JIM and early Showcase will always lead the pack I would think. Very interesting though! Thanks for bringing it up! I'm going to have to look into it further and get back to you😀

[bc]

Both JIM and Strange Tales have a larger following compared to TOS & TTA for a few reasons:

1. They were published during the PCH times and continued to succeed into the PHM era and into the super hero age-they appeal to multiple collecting tastes. The early TOS & TTA issues are really only in demand to PHM collectors (rare) or the Marvel completionist (even rarer, see Bronze Age Fan).

2. Stronger completionist drive in these 2 titles. Because they spanned multiple periods/genres, it's almost natural to acquire some from the adjacent periods. I collect the PHM era, but have many of the early JIMs and STs because they had cool covers/stories or had a favorite artist (Everett, Burgos, Maneely, or others). As I collect more, I like to fill in the runs. Again, I hear that the run collector is dead, but these two titles have a pretty solid base of them.

They are all a good chunk of change in above average grades and I expect books from the early '50's to have a greater relative value to books published in '59 (TOS & TTA). The fact that JIM, ST & TTA all have dark covers makes them rare in upper grades. Even the red-topped TOS 1 is a tough book above mid-grade.

The ranking you suggested does reflect the current state of the market for the Atlas/Marvel titles.

While values slowly rise on these books, the lack of exposure to many collectors keeps them from breaking out.. They really only have organic (more like grass roots) demand, there's no exterior forces promoting these books like we see in the super-hero titles with the movies. Until we see some excitement build in the community (like we've seen with GGA), these titles will remain off the radar for most collectors.

Can't comment on the DC titles, no experience there.

 

[PopKulture]

23 hours ago, elibowman said:

Am I missing any title? The one that I nearly included was Tales Of The Unexpected, but it didn't seem to fit (the list is heavy on DC anyway).

I think you have to include Tales of the Unexpected as well. It followed a similar trajectory as Mystery in Space - sci-fi/fantasy anthology and then features sci-fi hero (Adam Strange/Space Ranger).

I can't see how you'll see much more than the steady growth bc mentioned - I mean, with the big explosions in price for PCH and GGA, and then too the oddball superhero stuff like Ace, and never mind the usual grail books, especially in grade... How much money can there be in our hobby??? It does seem to concentrate itself in some of those areas, and so be it: we still need some (relative) bargains somewhere!  

[elibowman]

4 minutes ago, bc said:

1. They were published during the PCH times...

 

So, I picked that part of your post that really stands out to me...I don't know why I didn't think of the fact that ST and JIM have pre-code issues. Of course, that makes a HUGE difference. You cross over to many more collectors with that dynamic.

 

Also, good points about the dark covers, but those issues have strong pricing even at the low end.

 

Regarding completionists, I collect full runs whenever I can, so I don't like this shift, but I get how it changes the market. However, I am mostly focused on the #1s for this exercise. I understand that Marvel has more demand overall, but what Silver Age collector doesn't want a copy of Strange Adventures #1? Or Showcase #1? Maybe I am overstating this.

[elibowman]

9 minutes ago, PopKulture said:

I think you have to include Tales of the Unexpected as well. It followed a similar trajectory as Mystery in Space - sci-fi/fantasy anthology and then features sci-fi hero (Adam Strange/Space Ranger).

I can't see how you'll see much more than the steady growth bc mentioned - I mean, with the big explosions in price for PCH and GGA, and then too the oddball superhero stuff like Ace, and never mind the usual grail books, especially in grade... How much money can there be in our hobby??? It does seem to concentrate itself in some of those areas, and so be it: we still need some (relative) bargains somewhere!  

I took a look at TOTU yesterday...not surprisingly, it is near the bottom of the list on values would have been 10th out of 12 on GPA (but hardly any sales for reference) and 12th in OSPG. But, what I did find interesting, it has the lowest census total of these 12 #1s at 34. ST 1 has 35 and MGA 1 has 37. Are people uninterested, or are there fewer copies overall?

 

I looked at eBay listings just for another data point. It's hard to be certain on counts, but it looked like ~3 copies (raw/graded/restored/whatever) of TOTU 1 listed now. ~13 copies of SA 1 and TTA 1, ~9 copies of TOS 1, and down from there. Only ~2 copies of ST 1 and only ~1 copy of Showcase 1 that I could find. I am glad I picked up my Showcase 1 a couple years ago.

Edited March 8, 2019 by elibowman

[PopKulture]

12 minutes ago, elibowman said:

I took a look at TOTU yesterday...not surprisingly, it is near the bottom of the list on values would have been 10th out of 12 on GPA (but hardly any sales for reference) and 12th in OSPG. But, what I did find interesting, it has the lowest census total of these 12 #1s at 34. ST 1 has 35 and MGA 1 has 37. Are people uninterested, or are there fewer copies overall?

 

I looked at eBay listings just for another data point. It's hard to be certain on counts, but it looked like ~3 copies (raw/graded/restored/whatever) of TOTU 1 listed now. ~13 copies of SA 1 and TTA 1, ~9 copies of TOS 1, and down from there. Only ~2 copies of ST 1 and only ~1 copy of Showcase 1 that I could find. I am glad I picked up my Showcase 1 a couple years ago.

I take census numbers with a grain of salt - the demand/price/volatility dynamic helps drive what books get slabbed at a greater rate. Right off the top of my head, I can think of four collector friends who have a MGA 1 unslabbed, and those are mostly local guys who have no plans to sell their collections anytime soon. 

I am probably in the minority, but I wish all comics were worth less - that way, I could buy many of the ones I'm missing. Some of the prices being realized today sadden me in a way.  

Edited March 8, 2019 by PopKulture

[elibowman]

The more I look at the data, here are the books I think have the best potential. Not surprisingly, they are all DC. I LOVE the Marvel books, but the potential for increases just is greater on books that have a lower starting value.

 

B&B 1 - 1st issue in a key title, 1st appearances of characters that ran for at least a little while, recent market prices below OSPG most of the time. Not surprisingly, sales data is not exactly consistent. A 4.0 sold for $700, and a 3.5 sold for 294 in the last 12 months.

MIS 1 - c'mon...such a cool black cover, Frazetta art, very early sci-fi book, only 84 on the census, pre-code. I've gotta get one soon. No sales terribly recent at the low end, but a 3.0 sold for $300 and 3.5 for $430 not too long ago.

Showcase 1 - the 1st issue of the THE KEY run for the DC Silver Age, only 70 on the census, and I just don't see them very often overall. Who doesn't love firefighters? A 5.0 sold for $800 recently, but a 3.0 sold for a grand. Better get one soon, because I think this will move toward the Marvel #1s sooner rather than later.

SA 1 - the FIRST sci-fi title, oldest book on the list starting in 1950, 2nd longest running title of this group (behind HOM), pre-code, some people love the photo hybrid cover (I don't care for it as much), seems a bit more available quantity-wise, but this is the title that gave us Captain Comet, Atomic Knights, Animal Man, Deadman, and a couple dozen great gorilla covers. the last 3.0 sold for $350 and the last 5.0 for $630. Still so affordable compared to other titles of this type.

[elibowman]

3 minutes ago, PopKulture said:

I take census numbers with a grain of salt - the demand/price/volatility dynamic helps drive what books get slabbed at a greater rate. Right off the top of my head, I can think of four collector friends who have a MGA 1 unslabbed, and those are mostly local guys who have no plans to sell their collections anytime soon. 

I am probably in the minority, but I wish all comics were worth less - that way, I could buy many of the ones I'm missing. Some of the prices being realized today sadden me in a way.  

Fair on both points.

 

I have always loved the part of the hobby where I get something before everyone realizes they want it (easier to track prices to demonstrate this dynamic). And who doesn't love buying low, and either selling high, or being ABLE to sell high if you want?

[bc]

5 minutes ago, elibowman said:

The more I look at the data, here are the books I think have the best potential. Not surprisingly, they are all DC. I LOVE the Marvel books, but the potential for increases just is greater on books that have a lower starting value.

 

B&B 1 - 1st issue in a key title, 1st appearances of characters that ran for at least a little while, recent market prices below OSPG most of the time. Not surprisingly, sales data is not exactly consistent. A 4.0 sold for $700, and a 3.5 sold for 294 in the last 12 months.

MIS 1 - c'mon...such a cool black cover, Frazetta art, very early sci-fi book, only 84 on the census, pre-code. I've gotta get one soon. No sales terribly recent at the low end, but a 3.0 sold for $300 and 3.5 for $430 not too long ago.

Showcase 1 - the 1st issue of the THE KEY run for the DC Silver Age, only 70 on the census, and I just don't see them very often overall. Who doesn't love firefighters? A 5.0 sold for $800 recently, but a 3.0 sold for a grand. Better get one soon, because I think this will move toward the Marvel #1s sooner rather than later.

SA 1 - the FIRST sci-fi title, oldest book on the list starting in 1950, 2nd longest running title of this group (behind HOM), pre-code, some people love the photo hybrid cover (I don't care for it as much), seems a bit more available quantity-wise, but this is the title that gave us Captain Comet, Atomic Knights, Animal Man, Deadman, and a couple dozen great gorilla covers. the last 3.0 sold for $350 and the last 5.0 for $630. Still so affordable compared to other titles of this type.

Nice analysis you've done in this thread 

As always - collect what you enjoy (and hopefully we don't lose too much money when we pass these to the next stewards).

 

[Dick Pontoon]

1 hour ago, elibowman said:

Regarding completionists, I collect full runs whenever I can, so I don't like this shift, but I get how it changes the market. However, I am mostly focused on the #1s for this exercise. I understand that Marvel has more demand overall, but what Silver Age collector doesn't want a copy of Strange Adventures #1? Or Showcase #1? Maybe I am overstating this.

 Me. I have zero interest in any of the DC sci-fi/fantasy/horror titles with the exception those that have work by Jack Kirby. I dislike both the art and the stories. Other than that, I'm a run collector.