The fallacy of "IH181 is overvalued/overpriced" 5 5

[90sChild]

8 hours ago, miraclemet said:

Good points. I was just running some numbers around this type of question... here's some info on the idea if inventory turnover is causing IH181 to overinflate in value... 

 

It's a similar (though not identical) argument as the "there's so many of them (on the census and constantly in the market), there's no way it can be worth this much" 

 

As someone in the other threads said "I can find one any day of the week, in every auction all year"  And while that is true there are also multiple interested buyers every day of the week and in every auction all year that value the book equal to the market leading to realized prices at or above GPA in most cases. I count 65 being available through GPA tracking, and that doesnt include CLINK/CConnect and other marketplaces (heck there's a few in our marketplace right now).

If I had you guess how many IH181s have sold in the last 90 days (as tracked by GPA) what would your guess be for this very pricey book?  Have your number in mind? 

 

The answer is 193 copies (all grades, including SS copies), including 34 high grade copies (9.0 or better)

There are 11600 copies on census (so that's about 1.5% of the census being exchanged in a 90 day period)

 

Lets compare it's activity vs ASM129 another bronze age key. It has about a thousand fewer copies on census but it's within the same census ballpark (10600). Lets look at its transactional numbers. 40 in high grade (9.0 or better) and 205 all together.  Which is pretty close (1.9% of census involved in GPA transaction in last 90 days)  to the IH181 number. I expected the number to be much higher due to the lower cost of the ASM129 (lower cost of entry encourages transactions). ASM129 in CGC 9.0 will cost you $1900, an IH181 in the same grade will cost you 3x that at $6000. 

 

So with the 3x value despite similar census numbers? (since we know scarcity,in part, affects value).  One thing may be availability. There are 118 ASM129s available in the GPA market tracker, almost twice that of the IH181. For a book with similar transaction numbers, you would expect similar market avilable numbers, but in actuality there is far more "available" inventory, which is probably one of the things holding the price down. 

But why arent as many IH181s on the market like ASM129? 

Possible reasons: 

1) Punisher TV show just ended so the Punisher IP status may be pointing to a "sell" signal until new plans for a future show or movie appearance is hinted at. I dont have historical market availability info, so Im not sure if todays numbers are a spike vs past or just standard. 

2) IH181 may be more of a "hold" book that people have in there permanent collections so there is less fishing with it than with ASM129. 

 

So what we see here
1) IH181 is being sold as often as ASM129 which makes sense based on the similar census

but

2) IH181 is being offered far less often in the market (about 50% less) than the ASM129

These conditions help IH181 valuate higher (less availability in market than similar bronze keys leading to price increase or at least price support)

The thing that sticks out to me the most here as measurable data is the 1-2% census turnover in 90 days - is that a big number?  It certainly doesn't sound like it to me.  Why?  This brings me to my problem of collectibles as investments.  If buyers in the market DISAGREE about a high value on a book, they cannot short sell it like they can a stock.  Shorting is important in the stock market because it keeps a balance.  In any tangible collectible market, you can't do that obviously.  The only option is to simply NOT participate as buyers.  So what does this mean in the long term?  Eventually as prices go higher and higher, unable to correct downwards because nobody is willing to sell at a loss (unless sellers are desperate, lost a house, a job, etc.)  the amount of buyers participating at higher and higher prices will shrink more and more.  So -- to get a real analysis, back to your 1-2% number.  Is that high or low?  I would be interested in seeing a historical figure charted out over a 5, 10, or 20 year period if that 1-2% number is shrinking or growing.  Problem is, the census is constantly changing and CGC as a service has only existed on a short time scale compared to how long comic collecting has existed.  My hypothesis is that the number is shrinking due to constantly rising prices.  If someone doesn't want to pay $5k for a x-men #1 5.0, they aren't going to pay 6k or 7k either a year later.  The total percentage of participating buyers will, in theory, shrink year after year.  We also can't measure active buyers based only on price.  It is entirely possible in theory for only a handful of buyers to keep up the charade of constant rising prices.  A very key indicator when you analyze stocks is not just price but volume.  There is currently no way to analyze volume on sales other than trying to "eyeball it" based on number of sales.  

To those who don't trade on the market here's a nice walkthrough on how volume plays a role in price.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/02/010702.asp
 

Edited March 13, 2019 by 90sChild

[october]

15 minutes ago, LordRahl said:

The bolded statement is some sort of board fallacy. I joined here in 2002 and going back that far, there has always been this notion that the collectors and dealers of the 60s/70s would flood the market with high grade books when they retire. Well it's been 17 years that this same thing keeps getting talked about. In those 17 years sure some nice collections have come out but nothing even remotely like the glut that people keep talking about. If you were a dealer or collector in the 60s/70s, you are now retired and likely have been for a while. Why haven't these treasure troves of high grade GA/SA books materialized to flood the market?

The great crash of 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 is right around the corner. 

[gadzukes]

18 minutes ago, LordRahl said:

Why haven't these treasure troves of high grade GA/SA books materialized to flood the market?

Please oh lord, do not let this happen.

I'm thinking that every single new year there are a new set of young people that finally have some disposable income and will keep the hobby thriving.

[jjonahjameson11]

7 hours ago, Callaway29 said:

Appreciate the analysis! I added Swamp Thing 1 to my original post as a bronze example btw...

I don't think IH181 is immune to movie buzz...it's just benefited from an endless stream of movies resulting in no "bumps".

What's causing the sudden and dramatic increase in price? Folks keep hanging their hat on demand...does legitimate collector demand for multi-thousand dollar comic books really double in the span of a year?

Personally, I think it's a combination of a self-fulfilling prophecy (price going up, people buy because of that, which drives the price up even more) + fox/disney acquisition hype. 

Prior to the recent bump, the price of Hulk 181 was fairly stagnant for a few years, and I even recall a lively debate about whether Cerebus #1 should truly be as valuable as Hulk 181 in high grade.  Fast forward to present, and things have changed.  However, one thing that seems to be gaining momentum is the increased focus on collecting only key books, at the expense of completists trying to finish a run.  So, by not having to spend a gaggle of dollars trying to complete Hulk 1-6, 102 - present, the collector who goes after key books has more money saved/available to spend on Hulk 181, if s/he chooses.

[ComicConnoisseur]

On 3/12/2019 at 11:37 AM, gadzukes said:

Um.... didn't Marvel/Disney just get the rights to Xmen?  That news in itself creates the possibility of a Hulk/Wolverine movie

FF#1 also got a price bump again with the news Disney bought Fox.

Also Wolverine is the face of the X-Men. I guarantee the upcoming X-Men movie won't do as great at the box office as expected.

Why?

Wolverine is not in it.

All of a sudden the new X-Men movie becomes less must see.

Wolverine is getting into that iconic stage once only held for Spider-Man, Superman and Batman.

If there is a Mount Rushmore for superheroes than Wolverine is on it now.

 

 

Edited March 14, 2019 by ComicConnoisseur

[gadzukes]

10 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

If there is a Mount Rushmore for superheroes than Wolverine is on it now.

Oooooh..... that could start a whole new thread.  has it been done here on the boards yet?  The Mount Rushmore of comics means only 4 can be there.

I think we can all agree the first 3 are Superman, Batman & Spiderman, but the forth....... Cap? Wolverine? Wonder Woman? Hulk?  

Supes & Bats are the two most iconic GA characters.  Spidey is the most iconic SA character.  Is Wolverine hands down the most important Bronze?  Probably, but is it enough to get him onto the Mt Rushmore?  I actually think it might be a tie between Cap & WW

Edited March 14, 2019 by gadzukes

[ADAMANTIUM]

1 minute ago, gadzukes said:

Oooooh..... that could start a whole new thread.  has it been done here on the boards yet?  The Mount Rushmore of comics means only 4 can be there.

I think we can all agree the first 3 are Superman, Batman & Spiderman, but the forth....... Cap? Wolverine? Wonder Woman? Hulk?  

Supes & Bats are the two most iconic GA characters.  Spidey is the most iconic SA character.  Is Wolverine hands down the most important Bronze?  Probably.

Wolverine is the teddy Roosevelt of comics?

[ADAMANTIUM]

9 minutes ago, gadzukes said:

Oooooh..... that could start a whole new thread.  has it been done here on the boards yet?  The Mount Rushmore of comics means only 4 can be there.

I think we can all agree the first 3 are Superman, Batman & Spiderman, but the forth....... Cap? Wolverine? Wonder Woman? Hulk?  

Supes & Bats are the two most iconic GA characters.  Spidey is the most iconic SA character.  Is Wolverine hands down the most important Bronze?  Probably, but is it enough to get him onto the Mt Rushmore?  I actually think it might be a tie between Cap & WW

George is superman...

Jefferson is Batman

Lincoln is Spider-Man 

Wolvie is a teddy bear!

[ComicConnoisseur]

13 minutes ago, gadzukes said:

Oooooh..... that could start a whole new thread.  has it been done here on the boards yet?  The Mount Rushmore of comics means only 4 can be there.

I think we can all agree the first 3 are Superman, Batman & Spiderman, but the forth....... Cap? Wolverine? Wonder Woman? Hulk?  

Supes & Bats are the two most iconic GA characters.  Spidey is the most iconic SA character.  Is Wolverine hands down the most important Bronze?  Probably, but is it enough to get him onto the Mt Rushmore?  I actually think it might be a tie between Cap & WW

Going forward I would suspect Disney would give Wolverine more juice than Cap or Hulk in the movies.

One because he will be new to them, and they will want to do him the Marvel movie way.

Cap and Hulk might be winding down after Avengers: EndGame.

But I see your pov with Cap/WW about Mount Rushmore.

[ADAMANTIUM]

I could have been a contendah!!!!

Edited March 14, 2019 by ADAMANTIUM

[Randall Dowling]

I think the real issue with Hulk 181 being overpriced is that it’s the 2nd appearance of Wolverine.  

[ADAMANTIUM]

Just now, Randall Dowling said:

I think the real issue with Hulk 181 being overpriced is that it’s the 2nd appearance of Wolverine.  

 

[ADAMANTIUM]

19 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

George is superman...

Jefferson is Batman

Lincoln is Spider-Man 

Wolvie is a teddy bear!

George and jefferson golden age

Lincoln silver age

Roosevelt bronze

As much as I love wolverine, he and the punisher half to walk the tight rope because of violence in any generation when it comes to success.

The same reason that ghost rider probably won't become too mainstream....

As far as culture.

Just my theory 

 

[gadzukes]

23 minutes ago, Randall Dowling said:

I think the real issue with Hulk 181 being overpriced is that it’s the 2nd appearance of Wolverine.  

Earlier in the thread I mentioned that Hulk 180 might be outperforming 181 in the last 2 years.  Here's the GPA stats in a few high grades to compare the percentage increase of the two comics:

H180 2017----2019----%increase

9.4 = $971-----$2426----250%

9.0 = $511-----$1114----219%

8.0 = $391-----$718-----183%

 

H181 2017-----2019------%increase

9.4 = $5125-----$10,021---196%

9.0 = $3190-----$6036------189%

8.0 = $2145-----$3848------179%

Both books are doing really well, and these were the only grades I checked, but it looks like percentage-wise Hulk180 is actually doing better than Hulk181.  Interesting.  Kind of make you wonder if 180 is getting the respect it is due. 

I glanced at Hulk 182, and while it's climbing, percentage-wise it's being left in the dust by these two.

[miraclemet]

15 minutes ago, gadzukes said:

Earlier in the thread I mentioned that Hulk 180 might be outperforming 181 in the last 2 years.  Here's the GPA stats in a few high grades to compare the percentage increase of the two comics:

H180 2017----2019----%increase

9.4 = $971-----$2426----250%

9.0 = $511-----$1114----219%

8.0 = $391-----$718-----183%

 

H181 2017-----2019------%increase

9.4 = $5125-----$10,021---196%

9.0 = $3190-----$6036------189%

8.0 = $2145-----$3848------179%

Both books are doing really well, and these were the only grades I checked, but it looks like percentage-wise Hulk180 is actually doing better than Hulk181.  Interesting.  Kind of make you wonder if 180 is getting the respect it is due. 

It looks like the market is respecting it!

Looking at the graphs for all grades of IH180 it looks like most upper grades (8.0 and up) have spiked. Wonder if it's cause there more "room" for growth vs 181

[gadzukes]

1 minute ago, miraclemet said:

Wonder if it's cause there more "room" for growth vs 181

That's a great point.  Kind of like what's happening with AF15 & ASM1.

181 is simply too expensive now so collectors are going after 180

[ComicConnoisseur]

9 hours ago, gadzukes said:

That's a great point.  Kind of like what's happening with AF15 & ASM1.

181 is simply too expensive now so collectors are going after 180

I wonder if Hulk #182 will see a similar bump up ?

[comicwiz]

Without even broaching the issue of an unexplained doubling of values, I'd look at the signs of a new wave of entrants who don't think Wolverine is overhyped because they probably didn't collect in the 90's, that don't think IH181 is a stale book and don't care to look at both the census population or the padded numbers due to pressing. They're not immersed in a community like we were here, where guys were constantly putting this book down. They are the new class of comic 101 who think it's an important enough key to invest in, paying stupid prices be damned.

[Callaway29]

8 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

I wonder if Hulk #182 will see a similar bump up ?

I'm guessing no. I don't think this is a FF48/49/50 situation, where 48 caught fire, then 49, and lastly 50.

The draw for IH180 is Wolvie's first true appearance imo, and collateral gains will end there...

[ComicConnoisseur]

50 minutes ago, comicwiz said:

Without even broaching the issue of an unexplained doubling of values, I'd look at the signs of a new wave of entrants who don't think Wolverine is overhyped because they probably didn't collect in the 90's, that don't think IH181 is a stale book and don't care to look at both the census population or the padded numbers due to pressing. They're not immersed in a community like we were here, where guys were constantly putting this book down. They are the new class of comic 101 who think it's an important enough key to invest in, paying stupid prices be damned.

That`s very important to point out. I know some older collectors who won't give Hulk #181,NM#98, ASM#300,STAR WARS #1 and ASM#129 respect because they remember getting them in dollar boxes, so to them they can't fathom how these comic book keys and other keys can go for so much money now. Their mindset is still set to what they paid for them or saw what they went for many decades ago.

An example would be ROM #1 which goes for a decent price now,but to that certain old time collector to them it will always be a .25 cent comic because that`s where they remember seeing it a lot in .25 cent boxes when they were younger.

Edited March 14, 2019 by ComicConnoisseur