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The fallacy of "IH181 is overvalued/overpriced"
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272 posts in this topic

10 hours ago, TwoPiece said:

I mean, it makes sense, but it also doesn't make sense... Y'know? Maybe you don't. Hell, I don't.

It`s been like this for at least 10 years. Mostly works for Marvel characters in movies the best. Sometime DC characters get a short term bump with the TV shows. Other than Walking Dead I can't really remember if a indy comic had long range hype results.

Basically the Marvel movie hype bump seems the strongest and the best for long-term results because they got the Disney marketing machine working for them.

An example is Hellboy one of the top premiere indy comics of the last 25 years is going to have a new movie debut April 12,2019.

I bet a lot of people don't even know they made a new Hellboy movie to be released next month. Heck,I didn't even know a new Hellboy movie was coming until reading about it in February.

If Disney made the new Hellboy movie we could have both bet that people would have known this Hellboy movie was coming over a year ago do to Disney hype.

Instead Hellboy will do mediocre at the box office.

That will be sad for one of the top independent comicbooks of all-time.

So Disney/Marvel hype = $$$$$$

Edited by ComicConnoisseur
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3 hours ago, TwoPiece said:

I don't understand why movie hype affects comic value.

Attention focuses and possibly even increases demand, at least until the attention shifts to the next thing.

But there are diminishing returns for recurring characters, because they've already achieved recognition and popularity. Some people ignore this part.

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8 minutes ago, Lazyboy said:
6 hours ago, TwoPiece said:

I don't understand why movie hype affects comic value.

Attention focuses and possibly even increases demand, at least until the attention shifts to the next thing.

But there are diminishing returns for recurring characters, because they've already achieved recognition and popularity. Some people ignore this part.

Even beyond that, its a self fulfilling prophecy.  People see what happened to the price of previous books so even more jump on the next movie book and the whole thing snowballs.  If I knew there was a Youngblood movie coming I'd buy a bunch of Youngblood.

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1 hour ago, kav said:

Even beyond that, its a self fulfilling prophecy.  People see what happened to the price of previous books so even more jump on the next movie book and the whole thing snowballs.  If I knew there was a Youngblood movie coming I'd buy a bunch of Youngblood.

You sure talk about Youngblood a a lot. Something you want to tell us?

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3 minutes ago, NoMan said:

You sure talk about Youngblood a a lot. Something you want to tell us?

Well it's the dumbest #1 I can think of.

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1 minute ago, D84 said:

What about Mr. T and the T-Force?  That should tie with Youngblood.

Bad yes but Liefeld-he's the king of bad

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37 minutes ago, D84 said:

What about Mr. T and the T-Force?  That should tie with Youngblood.

 

35 minutes ago, kav said:

Bad yes but Liefeld-he's the king of bad

I thought that you might have enjoyed the Kneel Atoms art in the first issue, though, Kav?

Edited by Ken Aldred
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1 minute ago, Ken Aldred said:

 

I thought that you might have enjoyed the Kneel Atoms art in the first issue, though, Kav?

hm

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On 3/19/2019 at 2:24 PM, ComicConnoisseur said:

It`s been like this for at least 10 years. Mostly works for Marvel characters in movies the best. Sometime DC characters get a short term bump with the TV shows. Other than Walking Dead I can't really remember if a indy comic had long range hype results.

Basically the Marvel movie hype bump seems the strongest and the best for long-term results because they got the Disney marketing machine working for them.

An example is Hellboy one of the top premiere indy comics of the last 25 years is going to have a new movie debut April 12,2019.

I bet a lot of people don't even know they made a new Hellboy movie to be released next month. Heck,I didn't even know a new Hellboy movie was coming until reading about it in February.

If Disney made the new Hellboy movie we could have both bet that people would have known this Hellboy movie was coming over a year ago do to Disney hype.

Instead Hellboy will do mediocre at the box office.

That will be sad for one of the top independent comicbooks of all-time.

So Disney/Marvel hype = $$$$$$

Yup! That's until Disney buys Dark Horse/Legend, Columbia/Sony, Mignola's soul, etc....it's coming

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21 hours ago, kav said:

Even beyond that, its a self fulfilling prophecy.  People see what happened to the price of previous books so even more jump on the next movie book and the whole thing snowballs.

Yeah, the speculation market partially fuels itself.

21 hours ago, kav said:

  If I knew there was a Youngblood movie coming I'd buy a bunch of Youngblood.

I wouldn't go that far.  lol

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On 3/19/2019 at 12:12 AM, Darkowl said:

What's funny is that people have been accusing Hulk 181 of being overpriced for how many years now? hm

Yep, it's funny until the day it actually is overpriced. The DOW is up almost 40% since two years ago and Disney conicidentally bought the Xmen back recently. Books never appreciate when the movies come out, but rather when the speculation starts. I have a record sale for a NM- Ironman 55, just look at the prices on that book currently.

When the stocks start to falter and the market is soft, all these books go up for sale, and there are a lot of IH181's. All the 30-45 year old family men who are "new" collectors that had a few extra grand and bought a few key books, specifically IH181, will hock their books up on Ebay or comiclink when money gets tighter and they have to choose between getting their family nice stuff off Amazon, or buying a new car, or paying for college or keeping the book.

Edited by Bejack3
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2 hours ago, Bejack3 said:

Yep, it's funny until the day it actually is overpriced. The DOW is up almost 40% since two years ago and Disney conicidentally bought the Xmen back recently. Books never appreciate when the movies come out, but rather when the speculation starts. I have a record sale for a NM- Ironman 55, just look at the prices on that book currently.

When the stocks start to falter and the market is soft, all these books go up for sale, and there are a lot of IH181's. All the 30-45 year old family men who are "new" collectors that had a few extra grand and bought a few key books, specifically IH181, will hock their books up on Ebay or comiclink when money gets tighter and they have to choose between getting their family nice stuff off Amazon, or buying a new car, or paying for college or keeping the book.

Is there any data showing high value books suddenly appear for sale in large numbers when the stock market takes a dive?

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6 hours ago, kav said:

Is there any data showing high value books suddenly appear for sale in large numbers when the stock market takes a dive?

Great question Kav! Stocks have tripled since 2008 and steadily grown without many long-term dips. Now get ready for it, what else started in 2008? The MCU with iron man 1. Big coincidence? So comic sales exploded when the stocks bottomed out and now are going for extraordinary sales when the stocks hit an all time high.

Now, I believe there are a lot of retired people with big 401k's that own a lot of books and buy a lot of these golden age books. There are also a lot of wealthy people that just make big paychecks and stocks don't directly affect them, but stocks are a general indicator when the economy is hurting and the jobs market takes a dive.

 

I will continue to put some of my money into comics but I would be particularly weary of the prices on BA keys like IH181 in high demand by "casuals" that also have a high supply. I also see a lot of unhealthy things with that book such as a 9.0/9.2's going for the same prices in the last month and a 9.4/9.6 going for the same prices. Either the book is undervalued or overvalued in one of those grades and I know what my opinion is, although who really knows?

Edited by Bejack3
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3 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

ASM#300 could go on a run like Hulk#181.

Venom has at least 2 more movies in the franchise.

It wouldn't surprise me at all we could see ASM #300 making some huge gains over the next few years like Hulk #181 has.

The only problem with this thought is that Wolverine as a character is far more popular than Venom will ever be. Not many people (outside of us comics folk) really know who Venom is. If you ask if someone know who Wolverine is to a non-comic fan, you are probably going to get more "yes" responses than you would with asking the same question about Venom.

There has been only 1 Venom solo movie so far. There has been 3 Wolverine solo movies.

Venom has been in 2 films total. Wolverine has been in 9 movies in total (I believe). 

Wolverine has been a lot more films, cartoons, and media in general than Venom has, so I don't think ASM #300 will get to a point like IH #181 has. Will it have huge gains in the next few years. I think that depends on how Venom does in the comic market and media. If Sony goes for a big push of Venom in media, then I would say possibly. Also, I think Venom needs a bigger (better) push in comics. 

2c

 

 

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1 minute ago, DjMartini said:

The only problem with this thought is that Wolverine as a character is far more popular than Venom will ever be. Not many people (outside of us comics folk) really know who Venom is. If you ask if someone know who Wolverine is to a non-comic fan, you are probably going to get more "yes" responses than you would with asking the same question about Venom.

There has been only 1 Venom solo movie so far. There has been 3 Wolverine solo movies.

Venom has been in 2 films total. Wolverine has been in 9 movies in total (I believe). 

Wolverine has been a lot more films, cartoons, and media in general than Venom has, so I don't think ASM #300 will get to a point like IH #181 has. Will it have huge gains in the next few years. I think that depends on how Venom does in the comic market and media. If Sony goes for a big push of Venom in media, then I would say possibly. Also, I think Venom needs a bigger (better) push in comics. 

2c

 

 

I agree with you on the big push of the Venom in media part. Yeah, I don't see ASM #300 getting the high prices as IH#181, but I do see it going on a run where the prices now for ASM #300 might look cheap in 5 years .

Also, I think Venom is a lot more popular with non-comic book collectors than some realize.

looking at some numbers at the the box office.

Venom = Worldwide: $855,013,954

compared to the last Spider-Man movie.

Spider-Man : Homecoming = Worldwide: $880,166,924 

Pretty close, especially if we factor in Venom was a R-rated movie. 

My other reasoning is it will take them time to find a new replacement for Hugh Jackman as Wolverine, so while that is happening the Venom franchise will be taking off.

I expect the next Venom movie which will have Carnage in it to break 1 billion box office world wide.

So I see ASM #300 going on a run of its own the next 5 years. 

:preach:

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