The fallacy of "IH181 is overvalued/overpriced" 5 5

[miraclemet]

On 3/20/2019 at 8:40 PM, Bejack3 said:

 

When the stocks start to falter and the market is soft, all these books go up for sale, and there are a lot of IH181's. All the 30-45 year old family men who are "new" collectors that had a few extra grand and bought a few key books, specifically IH181, will hock their books up on Ebay or comiclink when money gets tighter and they have to choose between getting their family nice stuff off Amazon, or buying a new car, or paying for college or keeping the book.

we looked at this in terms of the last big economic hit (housing bubble). and the high grade books held steady and/or continued to climb at reasonable rates during a very harsh economic environment. so comics seem to weather market turns... or at least they did the last time around, and thats the only evidence we have to go off at the moment...

[LordRahl]

2 hours ago, miraclemet said:

we looked at this in terms of the last big economic hit (housing bubble). and the high grade books held steady and/or continued to climb at reasonable rates during a very harsh economic environment. so comics seem to weather market turns... or at least they did the last time around, and thats the only evidence we have to go off at the moment...

I was just going to point out that he was talking out of his  since this literally happened 10 years ago and there was no flood of key books that led to a tanking in prices... but you beat me to it.

[ComicConnoisseur]

20 hours ago, miraclemet said:

we looked at this in terms of the last big economic hit (housing bubble). and the high grade books held steady and/or continued to climb at reasonable rates during a very harsh economic environment. so comics seem to weather market turns... or at least they did the last time around, and thats the only evidence we have to go off at the moment...

Agree with this.

Seems like two different kind of markets.

How many stock guys load up on keys or how many comic key collectors bought Lyft stock today? They seem not to correlate with one another.

I don't see how the stock market going down for a dip would than mean eBay would all of a sudden be flooded with Hulk #181s.

I say most of these blue chip comic book keys are safe no matter what the stock market does.

 

 

Edited March 30, 2019 by ComicConnoisseur

[fishbone]

Bought mine in 2009 raw for $800 at a local show - graded out to a 9.2. So what's that, almost 10X in 10 years ?!!

[234wallst]

There are so many copies of IHI 181 that it is more prone to downside risk compared to let's say SA Marvel keys.  I think that's what people really mean when they say its overpriced.  Just about every Marvel SA key went through a hot period, and the supply of those books has notably dried up compared to years past.  But with IHI 181 there are still dozens upon dozens going up for sale with seemingly no end in sight.  

[Junkdrawer]

Hulk 181 is the Bitcoin of comics

[RonS2112]

On ‎3‎/‎29‎/‎2019 at 9:10 AM, Pat Thomas said:

I've seen posts on Reddit from collectors who purchased this because they realized it would be the only way they could ever own the book. So some collectors have conceded altogether.

I've not packed in all hope yet, but with kids to send to college on the near horizon, this facsimile edition does a beautiful job of filling a glaring hole in my "Hulk" run for now...….

[RonS2112]

On ‎3‎/‎29‎/‎2019 at 12:27 PM, miraclemet said:

we looked at this in terms of the last big economic hit (housing bubble). and the high grade books held steady and/or continued to climb at reasonable rates during a very harsh economic environment. so comics seem to weather market turns... or at least they did the last time around, and thats the only evidence we have to go off at the moment...

I think tying comic price performance directly to the stock market or housing bubble is a logical fallacy.  But what ISN'T a fallacy is understanding the behavior that LED to those bubbles.  

 

At the moment, I don't see a huge number of parallels to the last big comic price downturn, which IMO was the 1997-98 timeframe.  Of course, that was the collapse of the speculator bubble -- are we there again?  I personally don't think so, at least not yet.  But the proliferation of variant covers has been discussed here as a really bad industry trend, and I'm inclined to agree.  Likewise, there seem to be proliferation of "unboxing videos" on youtube lately, made by guys trying to get rich, who clearly have no real underlying love -- or even understanding -- of this hobby.  Those are disturbing trends, and the IH181 phenomenon seems to represent the worst of those symptoms.  So will I be able to buy a 9.2 copy under $2000 ever again?  Not likely.  Can this price appreciation continue forever?  That's not likely either.

[Bejack3]

On 3/29/2019 at 12:27 PM, miraclemet said:

we looked at this in terms of the last big economic hit (housing bubble). and the high grade books held steady and/or continued to climb at reasonable rates during a very harsh economic environment. so comics seem to weather market turns... or at least they did the last time around, and thats the only evidence we have to go off at the moment...

That is very likely true but in a previous post I mentioned the stocks bottomed out in 2008 and the MCU also started in 2008. I will let you draw your own conclusions from that. A post MCU comic market that might be leaking funds may not sustain a major economic downturn.

[Lazyboy]

31 minutes ago, RonS2112 said:

made by guys trying to get rich, who clearly have no real underlying love -- or even understanding -- of this hobby.

It's very clear that there are many people currently involved in the comics market who are only in it for the money, including people from the sports card field. It reminds me of something...

[october]

17 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

It's very clear that there are many people currently involved in the comics market who are only in it for the money, including people from the sports card field. It reminds me of something...

There are a lot of guys on Instagram with revolving "collections", with books only lasting weeks before they are sold for the next shiny thing. There is enthusiasm for the hobby, but it seems eclipsed by a need to post something new in order to accumulate new likes/comments/subs. 

I wonder if they are collecting comics or social media "status".

[delekkerste]

On 3/29/2019 at 12:27 PM, miraclemet said:

we looked at this in terms of the last big economic hit (housing bubble). and the high grade books held steady and/or continued to climb at reasonable rates during a very harsh economic environment. so comics seem to weather market turns... or at least they did the last time around, and thats the only evidence we have to go off at the moment...

Yeah, but look at where prices are now vs. 2008-9.  Or vs. 1996-99.  Or whenever we had that dip in the '80s.  Hard to hurt yourself too much falling out of a ground-floor window, and it's easier to hang onto things when they're a tiny part of your net worth (something that is less and less so nowadays).  

On 3/29/2019 at 4:40 PM, ComicConnoisseur said:

Agree with this.

Seems like two different kind of markets.

How many stock guys load up on keys or how many comic key collectors bought Lyft stock today? They seem not to correlate with one another.

I don't see how the stock market going down for a dip would than mean eBay would all of a sudden be flooded with Hulk #181s.

I say most of these blue chip comic book keys are safe no matter what the stock market does.

CC, you ask how many stock guys loaded up on keys or how many comic key collectors bought Lyft stock the other day, but, I think the more relevant observation is that, since early 2009:

- stocks are way up

- private company valuations are way up 

- high-end artwork and collectibles are way up

- high-end property is way up 

- commodity prices are up a decent amount

It's not a coincidence. Even if guys who buy art aren't guys who buy comics aren't guys who buy stocks aren't guys who buy real estate aren't guys who buy commodities, the bullish psychology and availability of easy money drive it all, which is why some, including myself, have termed the 2016-2019 asset market "The Everything Bubble".

Greed and cheap money don't discriminate between asset classes.  And, when greed turns to fear, and liquidity turns to illiquidity - whenever that may be - it's not going to discriminate between asset classes either.  Not that everything will go down together (less liquid markets like art and collectibles will react with a lag, and will require other asset prices to go down and stay down for a prolonged period before adjusting), but, you can bet there will be a strong correlation.  How many record art and collectibles prices were set in the fall of 2008 when stocks were falling off a cliff?  Only one that I can think of (the Damien Hirst direct auction sale, which was manipulated by dealers and where many of the prices are underwater more than 10 years later).  The Action #1 CGC 6.0 sale in 2009 occurred after the stock market bottomed and as a powerful monetary reflation was getting underway (and, dollars to donuts, I bet that book would have done just as well or even better in the summer of 2008 when hard asset prices hit their highest prices ever up to that point in history).  

[october]

6 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Yeah, but look at where prices are now vs. 2008-9.  Or vs. 1996-99.  Or whenever we had that dip in the '80s.  Hard to hurt yourself too much falling out of a ground-floor window, and it's easier to hang onto things when they're a tiny part of your net worth (something that is less and less so nowadays).  

And who is driving these ever escalating values? If it's newer investor/speculators looking only for the next score, it won't take a large market disturbance to send them running for the hills. Even a 10-20% drop on high profile "safe" books could cause on overreaction as the easy money artists take their wallets elsewhere. To wit: there are dozens of guys on Instagram that churn their "collections" near constantly. They are able to do this because of upward price pressure. Putting $10,000 into comics, then flipping those comics for other Insta-worthy books is only possible if the things you bought aren't suddenly worth $9,000. You can't churn if you take a 10% haircut every time you go to dump your books and buy something new. 

Not only is the comic market different from 2008 in terms of real dollar prices, I think it's likely much more fragile. But who knows. It's defied expectations so far, wouldn't be shocked to see another bullish decade or two. 

[The Lions Den]

On 3/14/2019 at 3:01 PM, NoMan said:

I don't see it. Don't see any or it.

Kids today don't collect comics. They don't care. Of course your wonderful children and their friend or two love to read and they know ASM 129 from Rom 1 to IH 181 to what-the-heck ever, however, the majority of young people today want and do stare at screens all day. They don't read anything tangible nor do they care to hence no nostalgic factor for a comic book. That means in 20 - 25 years mostly no one is gonna want your precious collection entombed in plastic. 

I don't care how well the MCU movies are doing now. (When I get really bored I go to movie section of the boards and see people arguing about grosses and have to laugh. You guys got points in these films or something?) The majority of of kids (and adults, sadly) would watch a monkey throw its waste matter discharged from its bowels on a wall if that's what was playing at the multiplex. I've worked in the entertainment industry in Los Angeles for 30 years and that's how the head honchos talk about you, Dear MCU Fanatics. I KNOW YOUR CHILDREN ARE SPECIAL AND LIKE TO READ AND WANT QUALITY ENTERTAINMENT. AND THEIR FRIENDS! I'm simply talking about the majority of young people. A couple of smart kids brought up by a couple of smart folks here can't support this hobby. 

I don't care how many people flood conventions. It's all dress up. Most cosplay girls look like harlots off to the strip club and get mad when the guys look at 'em. The guys, hell, I don't know what their deal is. It's creative and at least people aren't shooting each other, so it's all good. The point is the comic back issue folks are shoved off to a tiny corner. Why? Because selling comic books IS NOT THE DRAW like it used to be because the majority of people aren't buying. Duh! 

Some of you here see back issue market booming cause that's all you know. It's what all your friends do. It's like going to a Narcotics Anonymous meeting and thinking everyone in the world is shooting heroin in the vein that runs between your big toe and the toe next to it. No, the entire world is not doing that. Just you and your dumb friends. 

I say this not to be mean. I'm in the same boat. I have many nice comics and one phenomenally nice one. I betting that someone in 25 years just might be interested in the phenomenally nice one, the others, not so much. 

The talk here is 95% what something is worth or what something will be worth. The other 5%, unfortunately, is if something is a good read. Tells it all right there, doesn't it?

Pull your head out of your long boxes and look around.

Not even the Chinese can save this hobby.

And BTW,  if you think variants are a smart buy, you're unreachable. But please keep buying them, cause I think it's kinda funny and makes me laugh.

AND another BTW, before some one blathers but that's what I like to collect so that's what important! (variants, 9.8s in plastic, can it be a 9.9 with a press? MCU movies on streaming whatever) Again, no duh! Enjoy away. That's what life is about but know this: No one in the future will want them. And it will be a hassle for someone to deal with once you're dead, just like your Grandma's little QVC Home Shopping Club POS collectables. Heck, even your Dad's stamp/coin collection. But! But! But that upside down airmail stamp is still worth a lot of money. Yes! And the others?

Are there even that many of us here? 

 

 

 

That's OK. There'll still be some of us old guys spending our social security checks on comics. Maybe then I'll be able to pick up a nice copy of FF #48 for under five grand...   

[talesof...]

This is an interesting topic, and troublesome at the same time. Here it seems there are comic "investors" which in the stock market you don't have stock "collectors" as far as I know. I got a hulk 181 because I like the character and I collect comics, or rather used to. when I get my tales of suspense 40 that's the final book. If you compare comic books to stock markets then the danger of "investing" in comics, which is a hobby, will show up. The trouble from a collector standpoint is, when the hobby is flooded with investors they want to buy cheap and sell high and have an entitlement mentality. Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

I don't find ebay to be a reliable source for sale figures because it is too easy to manipulate the numbers in terms of actual money being exchanged. For example, you might look at the selling trends on ebay "sold" items and think "wow look how much hulk 181 is going for." but in reality those don't reflect canceled orders, non paying bidders and what no body talks about, the price hike scam. where someone keeps bidding to try to rope someone in to bidding more. all you have to have is an extra ebay account or two. its easy to do and hard to catch. OR you are selling the book and don't want to get stuck with losing money because you paid an arm and a leg and your first born to get the book only to have it bidding at 700 dollars and 1 hour left to go before the auction ends. I have the mindset that the only real investment books are going to be action comics 1 detective comics 27 and I would even throw in amazing fantasy 15. those books are foundational books. IF hulk 181 stands the test of time it will be when I am an old man. The problem with that, is thinking long term. are kids today going to be interested in the characters and comics when I am an old man? I don't know. I thought that things like toys r us would be around forever but look what happened there.  I don't even know if there will be comics when I am an old man. They are getting rid of printed material year by year. But there will be a market of people trying to sell the books they paid so much money for and not being able to get half of what they paid. It's a possibility. I would say I am leaving the hobby for good at the right time.  

You investors need to think about these things. I am a collector and I would not pay what the prices seem to being going for now. It just seems odd how quickly the numbers shot up. and lets be honest grading companies stand to make money with the hype and grades too. Add pressing and cleaning books to "increase" the grade. now you got regular guys buying pressing machines to press their own books to up the grades? You cant even hardly get an authentic book anymore unless you are lucky enough to find an old school original owner. then you better jump on it cause THAT is worth something. But with the price hikes and mentality of using comic books as "day trade" rather than a hobby meant to be enjoyed, I would not be surprised that this bubble will burst in the next 3 to 5 years. Oh man, if they cast wolverine in the movies right and they do the character justice in the movies. I cringe at what the prices would shoot up to then. and wondering if people are actually bidding the prices on ebay when that happens.  

[valiantman]

I came to comics from the sportscard market in the early 1990s.  As "dangerous" as it may seem for books like Incredible Hulk #181 to have major increases in price, there are some things that seem FAR MORE DANGEROUS outside of comics and in other markets.  There are 21st century sportscards worth $200,000+ for players that will retire or they have already retired.  That's insane.  What will those players EVER do to increase their popularity or significance with future generations?  They can't.  The cards aren't even 20 years old.  $200,000+. Insane. There's no retirement for Wolverine. There's little chance that Disney will decide they don't need to keep Wolverine around. They're still fighting and changing laws to control the copyrights and trademarks on a mouse that's famous for... being a famous mouse.

Few might view a comic book as "fine art" but we're going to have a lot more Wolverine than Warhol in the next 20-50 years. Who defines "fine art" anyway? Roy Liechtenstein art is stolen directly from comic books, sells for more than the comics it was stolen from, and everyone knows this. Someday, "fine art" could easily include comic books.  Stan Lee is now a much bigger name than Roy Lichtenstein. The "real thing" in the fine arts world could easily be copies of 50+, 75+ and 100+ year old comics.

If the number of copies of Hulk #181 is "too high" then coin collectors are in BIG trouble.  They assign huge values to pieces of metal produced by the millions. When's the last time there were $1Billion in box office receipts for a movie about a coin? The most famous coin in a big time movie that I can think of (quickly) is the Two-Face double-heads coin in The Dark Knight.  Anyone wanting to collect that piece of pop culture related to coins would end up looking at the comic book it (and he) has a first appearance.  Multi-million dollar coins have future values based on... what?  The next generation isn't being introduced to Walking Liberty half-dollars for two hours at a time with a bucket of popcorn.  Stamps?  Another market that's future generations are... where?

Yes, ALL INVESTMENTS have the potential to fall.  ALL COMICS have the potential to fall.  But we've got an 80+ year old hobby at the absolute height of popularity in terms of public recognition. More comics sold in the 1990s, but that was because comics were selling in the 1990s to a handful of people while the majority of the world didn't know or care about the characters. Comic book characters have never been bigger than the movies of the past 20 years... and everyone knows they originated in disposable folded paper.

99% of all comics have nothing going for them. They're not rare. They don't introduce famous characters. They are no different than the issue that came before or after. People love a "TOP TEN" list. People even like "TOP 100" lists. Name a legitimate "TOP TEN" for comic characters that won't include Wolverine. There are billions of comic books, but 99.9999% of them don't have the first appearance of Wolverine.  I think that comics can and will fail, but a few are much safer than others.

[Casablanca]

Someone mentioned IH181 is the bitcoin of comics. Speaking of which, the unique number on the encapsulated case should function as a unique identifier of that specific comic. Couldn't that be a significant way of tracking to see the specific turnovers of the individual books. Is there a way to do this? Is it being done already? I have exposed my naive knowledge of this subject matter. 

[valiantman]

14 minutes ago, Casablanca said:

the unique number on the encapsulated case should function as a unique identifier of that specific comic. Couldn't that be a significant way of tracking to see the specific turnovers of the individual books. Is there a way to do this? Is it being done already? I have exposed my naive knowledge of this subject matter. 

Just over 3,000 unique serial numbers on GPAnalysis for Hulk #181. Of those, 839 have sold twice (or more), just over 27%.  That's 4.7% for sales January 2018 to present.  Another 3.6% sold (most recently) during 2017.  Another 2.6% sold (most recently) during 2016. The other 16.1% sold a second time (or more) in the decade prior to 2016.  The idea that there are lots of copies of Hulk #181 just flipping from one hand to another doesn't prove true using GPA, unless you're talking about under 5% per year.  73%+ have no 2nd sales recorded.

[ADAMANTIUM]

11 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Just over 3,000 unique serial numbers on GPAnalysis for Hulk #181. Of those, 839 have sold twice (or more), just over 27%.  That's 4.7% for sales January 2018 to present.  Another 3.6% sold (most recently) during 2017.  Another 2.6% sold (most recently) during 2016. The other 16.1% sold a second time (or more) in the decade prior to 2016.  The idea that there are lots of copies of Hulk #181 just flipping from one hand to another doesn't prove true using GPA, unless you're talking about under 5% per year.  73%+ have no 2nd sales recorded.

That's impressive stats! Thanks for that

Of course if the "market does crash" it would be interesting to see how those stats change...

[Casablanca]

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Just over 3,000 unique serial numbers on GPAnalysis for Hulk #181. Of those, 839 have sold twice (or more), just over 27%.  That's 4.7% for sales January 2018 to present.  Another 3.6% sold (most recently) during 2017.  Another 2.6% sold (most recently) during 2016. The other 16.1% sold a second time (or more) in the decade prior to 2016.  The idea that there are lots of copies of Hulk #181 just flipping from one hand to another doesn't prove true using GPA, unless you're talking about under 5% per year.  73%+ have no 2nd sales recorded.

Thank you very much sir! So ~3/4 of of these copies are in the hands of collectors who have not sold yet. and ~1/4 have been sold multiple times 2006-current.

That's not a lot of these graded copies in a 13 year period, yet its these copies that have dictated the price. Its interesting even at these prices that the 73% haven't started unloading more.