The fallacy of "IH181 is overvalued/overpriced" 5 5

[ExNihilo]

35 minutes ago, RonS2112 said:

Walk into any Walmart or Target in the country, and right next to the checkout area, you will see a GIANT selection of Magic, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh, and yes, sports cards for a variety of sports, by a variety of companies.  I think the demand for sports cards is about on par as the demand for comics (which, by the way, neither the aforementioned Target nor Walmart carry).

Small sample size, but none of my friends/relatives kids collect sports cards.  And there's no denying the market for sports cards has shrunk drastically since the 90s.

I don't count Magic, Pokemon, and other CCG's as part of the sports card market.

Comic sales figures have grown in large part due to the increasing cost of books.  Unit sales meanwhile have been largely "stable" over the last 20 years.

https://www.comichron.com/yearlycomicssales.html

[drbanner]

This book has definitely cooled off the last few months, there are a couple nice 9.4's available in the marketplace right now with no takers. If AF 15 and Hulk 1 can stagnate for years (like they have been currently), a book as plentiful as Hulk 181 isn't immune to a price ceiling/retraction. 

Edited April 8, 2019 by drbanner

[miraclemet]

55 minutes ago, drbanner said:

This book has definitely cooled off the last few months, there are a couple nice 9.4's available in the marketplace right now with no takers. If AF 15 and Hulk 1 can stagnate for years (like they have been currently), a book as plentiful as Hulk 181 isn't immune to a price ceiling/retraction. 

GPA on a 9.4 right now is around $9k . (12mo is at $8400, 90 day is as $9300 helped by a $10k and an 11k sale). 

There have been 12 sales in the last 90 days (ie "last few months) vs 32 sales in the last year. Which means 38% of the books sold in the last year have sold in the last quarter (which means the last quarter has seen MORE sales, not less). 

The first  9.4 I found in the marketplace is asking over GPA following the speculation spike of the last few months. And we all know the marketplace is full of deal hunters, not full GPA payers! Now the second one is listed very reasonably at the 12mo GPA. Im surprised that one hasn't been picked up, though it is the slow time of the year (tax paying time). 

I think it's entirely possible, maybe even likely that the book has hit a ceiling in some grades (similar to what AF15 is going through at some grades). 

[delekkerste]

[ExNihilo]

12 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Fingers crossed this is the case. 

signed,

- interested buyer

[Ssantoss]

14 hours ago, miraclemet said:

GPA on a 9.4 right now is around $9k . (12mo is at $8400, 90 day is as $9300 helped by a $10k and an 11k sale). 

There have been 12 sales in the last 90 days (ie "last few months) vs 32 sales in the last year. Which means 38% of the books sold in the last year have sold in the last quarter (which means the last quarter has seen MORE sales, not less). 

The first  9.4 I found in the marketplace is asking over GPA following the speculation spike of the last few months. And we all know the marketplace is full of deal hunters, not full GPA payers! Now the second one is listed very reasonably at the 12mo GPA. Im surprised that one hasn't been picked up, though it is the slow time of the year (tax paying time). 

I think it's entirely possible, maybe even likely that the book has hit a ceiling in some grades (similar to what AF15 is going through at some grades). 

You only pay tax once a year? And that is in april? THAT is something I will keep in mind for the future. 

[Callaway29]

All depends on how one does their taxes. I don't consider tax season a "paying" time, but rather a "receiving" time.

Also, there was an analysis of sales (I think it was strictly on comiclink) and historically March yielded the best results throughout the year. FWIW.

Edited April 9, 2019 by Callaway29

[RonS2112]

22 hours ago, ExNihilo said:

Small sample size, but none of my friends/relatives kids collect sports cards.  And there's no denying the market for sports cards has shrunk drastically since the 90s.

I don't count Magic, Pokemon, and other CCG's as part of the sports card market.

Comic sales figures have grown in large part due to the increasing cost of books.  Unit sales meanwhile have been largely "stable" over the last 20 years.

https://www.comichron.com/yearlycomicssales.html

Well, equally small sample size, but all of my kids and their friends do.  And at the local monthly cons I go to, it's consistently about 60% comics, 40% sports cards/magazines.  And the sports guys look like they're doing good business.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Does anybody really think IH#181 will have overall lower prices across the board in 5 years?

I could see maybe the ultra grades like 9.6 or 9.8 maybe taking a dip, but not the lower and mid-grades.

I would say AF #15 and IH #181 are blue chips and the two safest bets in the hobby post 1961.

I maybe see NM #98 and ASM #300 getting to that safe bet level soon.

 

Edited April 9, 2019 by ComicConnoisseur

[sonicyouth1]

On 4/8/2019 at 1:22 PM, drbanner said:

This book has definitely cooled off the last few months, there are a couple nice 9.4's available in the marketplace right now with no takers. If AF 15 and Hulk 1 can stagnate for years (like they have been currently), a book as plentiful as Hulk 181 isn't immune to a price ceiling/retraction. 

I just wanted to point out a few recent sale that may support a slight price correction is occurring. A Hulk 181 cgc 9.4 ow/w sold for 9k on ebay from an Overstreet Contributor. One of Todd Mcdevitt's old Ellwood city warehouse managers. mythiccardzone . the guy has flaweless feedback selling high end art, graded power 9, graded silver age.  so excuses really can't be made. looking at his negatives from years ago, sounds like a typical northeast dealer. doesn't take bs. no alarms there.

 

I don't think it's a panic by any means. It's just a slight correction. There are hundreds of 9.4's. Around 8.5 k seems right. (as several have sold for that from less reputable sellers). Then it will get a little bump back to the 11k highs when Disney movies kick off.

 

remember, its not a panic, just a slight correction.

[sonicyouth1]

17 hours ago, RonS2112 said:

Well, equally small sample size, but all of my kids and their friends do.  And at the local monthly cons I go to, it's consistently about 60% comics, 40% sports cards/magazines.  And the sports guys look like they're doing good business.

It might be a regional thing. Sports cards have been dead for 20 years but there is a small group of collectors still out there convincing themselves there 1/1 jersey patch auto UD ULTRA BLACK michael Jordan Nolan Ryan Lebron, Brady quad auto jersey game played card is cool... but its not..

[delekkerste]

7 hours ago, sonicyouth1 said:

remember, its not a panic, just a slight correction.