The fallacy of "IH181 is overvalued/overpriced" 5 5

[valiantman]

7 minutes ago, Casablanca said:

20 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Just over 3,000 unique serial numbers on GPAnalysis for Hulk #181. Of those, 839 have sold twice (or more), just over 27%.  That's 4.7% for sales January 2018 to present.  Another 3.6% sold (most recently) during 2017.  Another 2.6% sold (most recently) during 2016. The other 16.1% sold a second time (or more) in the decade prior to 2016.  The idea that there are lots of copies of Hulk #181 just flipping from one hand to another doesn't prove true using GPA, unless you're talking about under 5% per year.  73%+ have no 2nd sales recorded.

Thank you very much sir! So ~3/4 of of these copies are in the hands of collectors who have not sold yet. and ~1/4 have been sold multiple times 2006-current.

That's not a lot of these graded copies in a 13 year period, yet its these copies that have dictated the price. Its interesting even at these prices that the 73% haven't started unloading more.

For comparison, Hulk #181 has 27% with multiple sales and Amazing Fantasy #15 has 23% with multiple sales.

[RonS2112]

2 hours ago, valiantman said:

Just over 3,000 unique serial numbers on GPAnalysis for Hulk #181. Of those, 839 have sold twice (or more), just over 27%.  That's 4.7% for sales January 2018 to present.  Another 3.6% sold (most recently) during 2017.  Another 2.6% sold (most recently) during 2016. The other 16.1% sold a second time (or more) in the decade prior to 2016.  The idea that there are lots of copies of Hulk #181 just flipping from one hand to another doesn't prove true using GPA, unless you're talking about under 5% per year.  73%+ have no 2nd sales recorded.

That's a good analysis, but the "X factor" is the seeming sh*tload of IH181 on the market right now.  Those are right now in a statistical "limbo," not considered by your analysis.

[valiantman]

27 minutes ago, RonS2112 said:

That's a good analysis, but the "X factor" is the seeming sh*tload of IH181 on the market right now.  Those are right now in a statistical "limbo," not considered by your analysis.

There are 68 copies for sale according to the GPAnalysis "Live Auctions" listing under the Hulk #181 heading. That's 0.6%, or about 1-in-172 of the copies on the CGC Census.

Incredible Hulk #1 has 15 copies for sale. That's 0.9%, or about 1-in-109 of the copies on the CGC Census.

Amazing Fantasy #15 has 63 copies for sale. That's 2%, or about 1-in-50 of the copies on the CGC Census.

Amazing Spider-Man #129 (same year as Hulk #181) has 116 copies for sale. That's 1.1%, or about 1-in-92 of the copies on the CGC Census.

EDIT: I see about double that number (140 copies of CGC Hulk #181) for sale on Ebay.com, so I'm not sure how GPAnalysis determines the Live Auctions listings. Unless it's done differently for some books, the numbers above should be relatively comparable.

Edited April 2, 2019 by valiantman
double-checking GPA

[ComicConnoisseur]

On 4/2/2019 at 4:15 PM, RonS2112 said:

That's a good analysis, but the "X factor" is the seeming sh*tload of IH181 on the market right now.  Those are right now in a statistical "limbo," not considered by your analysis.

One thing though is demand for both IH#181 and ASM #300 are both off the charts. A lot of times demand is more important than supply. We could have a comic book with a print run of a 100 but if no one heard of it no cares. Wolverine and Venom are now modern icons.

With Disney now owning Wolverine and a good chance at a Sony trilogy of Venom movies I see both first appearances soaring to new heights these next 5 years because the demand is there.

[ComicConnoisseur]

On 4/2/2019 at 12:58 PM, valiantman said:

I came to comics from the sportscard market in the early 1990s.  As "dangerous" as it may seem for books like Incredible Hulk #181 to have major increases in price, there are some things that seem FAR MORE DANGEROUS outside of comics and in other markets.  There are 21st century sportscards worth $200,000+ for players that will retire or they have already retired.  That's insane.  What will those players EVER do to increase their popularity or significance with future generations?  They can't.  The cards aren't even 20 years old.  $200,000+. Insane. There's no retirement for Wolverine. There's little chance that Disney will decide they don't need to keep Wolverine around. They're still fighting and changing laws to control the copyrights and trademarks on a mouse that's famous for... being a famous mouse.

Few might view a comic book as "fine art" but we're going to have a lot more Wolverine than Warhol in the next 20-50 years. Who defines "fine art" anyway? Roy Liechtenstein art is stolen directly from comic books, sells for more than the comics it was stolen from, and everyone knows this. Someday, "fine art" could easily include comic books.  Stan Lee is now a much bigger name than Roy Lichtenstein. The "real thing" in the fine arts world could easily be copies of 50+, 75+ and 100+ year old comics.

If the number of copies of Hulk #181 is "too high" then coin collectors are in BIG trouble.  They assign huge values to pieces of metal produced by the millions. When's the last time there were $1Billion in box office receipts for a movie about a coin? The most famous coin in a big time movie that I can think of (quickly) is the Two-Face double-heads coin in The Dark Knight.  Anyone wanting to collect that piece of pop culture related to coins would end up looking at the comic book it (and he) has a first appearance.  Multi-million dollar coins have future values based on... what?  The next generation isn't being introduced to Walking Liberty half-dollars for two hours at a time with a bucket of popcorn.  Stamps?  Another market that's future generations are... where?

Yes, ALL INVESTMENTS have the potential to fall.  ALL COMICS have the potential to fall.  But we've got an 80+ year old hobby at the absolute height of popularity in terms of public recognition. More comics sold in the 1990s, but that was because comics were selling in the 1990s to a handful of people while the majority of the world didn't know or care about the characters. Comic book characters have never been bigger than the movies of the past 20 years... and everyone knows they originated in disposable folded paper.

99% of all comics have nothing going for them. They're not rare. They don't introduce famous characters. They are no different than the issue that came before or after. People love a "TOP TEN" list. People even like "TOP 100" lists. Name a legitimate "TOP TEN" for comic characters that won't include Wolverine. There are billions of comic books, but 99.9999% of them don't have the first appearance of Wolverine.  I think that comics can and will fail, but a few are much safer than others.

This.

Great post.

I always saw

comic book keys = better long term investment.

sports rookie cards = better short term investment.

The sports stars just have a short shelf life compared to the comic book super hero icons.

Spider-Man and Batman will outlast Mickey Mantle and Joe Namath.

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

On 4/2/2019 at 12:58 PM, valiantman said:

If the number of copies of Hulk #181 is "too high" then coin collectors are in BIG trouble.

Key point you brought up here as in are not most post 1950/60s coins and up made in the 100 millions to billions? Definitely not rare at all. If we think about it Franklin Mint manufactured collectibles are rarer than modern US Coins. 

I think having a key comic under 20,000 on the CGC census is rare compared to modern US coins post 1950.

I think the coin hobby is in much more serious trouble than comics or sportscards.

At least with sports and comics they are still being introduced to new audiences every day with daily sports games on TV and big blockbuster super hero movies.

Most people I encounter don't want nothing to do with spare change and rather use a debit card, paypal or venmo.

So yeah coins might have a worst collectible future than comics and sportscards.

Edited April 6, 2019 by ComicConnoisseur

[Darkowl]

 

On 4/2/2019 at 10:24 AM, talesof... said:

This is an interesting topic, and troublesome at the same time. Here it seems there are comic "investors" which in the stock market you don't have stock "collectors" as far as I know. I got a hulk 181 because I like the character and I collect comics, or rather used to. when I get my tales of suspense 40 that's the final book. If you compare comic books to stock markets then the danger of "investing" in comics, which is a hobby, will show up. The trouble from a collector standpoint is, when the hobby is flooded with investors they want to buy cheap and sell high and have an entitlement mentality. Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

I don't find ebay to be a reliable source for sale figures because it is too easy to manipulate the numbers in terms of actual money being exchanged. For example, you might look at the selling trends on ebay "sold" items and think "wow look how much hulk 181 is going for." but in reality those don't reflect canceled orders, non paying bidders and what no body talks about, the price hike scam. where someone keeps bidding to try to rope someone in to bidding more. all you have to have is an extra ebay account or two. its easy to do and hard to catch. OR you are selling the book and don't want to get stuck with losing money because you paid an arm and a leg and your first born to get the book only to have it bidding at 700 dollars and 1 hour left to go before the auction ends. I have the mindset that the only real investment books are going to be action comics 1 detective comics 27 and I would even throw in amazing fantasy 15. those books are foundational books. IF hulk 181 stands the test of time it will be when I am an old man. The problem with that, is thinking long term. are kids today going to be interested in the characters and comics when I am an old man? I don't know. I thought that things like toys r us would be around forever but look what happened there.  I don't even know if there will be comics when I am an old man. They are getting rid of printed material year by year. But there will be a market of people trying to sell the books they paid so much money for and not being able to get half of what they paid. It's a possibility. I would say I am leaving the hobby for good at the right time.  

You investors need to think about these things. I am a collector and I would not pay what the prices seem to being going for now. It just seems odd how quickly the numbers shot up. and lets be honest grading companies stand to make money with the hype and grades too. Add pressing and cleaning books to "increase" the grade. now you got regular guys buying pressing machines to press their own books to up the grades? You cant even hardly get an authentic book anymore unless you are lucky enough to find an old school original owner. then you better jump on it cause THAT is worth something. But with the price hikes and mentality of using comic books as "day trade" rather than a hobby meant to be enjoyed, I would not be surprised that this bubble will burst in the next 3 to 5 years. Oh man, if they cast wolverine in the movies right and they do the character justice in the movies. I cringe at what the prices would shoot up to then. and wondering if people are actually bidding the prices on ebay when that happens.  

The manipulated/cancelled/whatever ebay sales you describe are the exception to the rule. Most ebay sales are legit, and the final numbers are quite comparable to other websites, like Heritage Auctions, for example. ebay usually has higher sales though, because there are more people aware of ebay than they are of HA (and other sites), so you're going to have more bids driving that price up.

Btw, I don't see us living in a world where AC1, or DC27 are investment books, and H181 isn't, because H181 is also a foundation book! It clearly doesn't matter how many copies are available (to an extent), because the demand has been exceeding that for years, long before they started making X-Men movies. Wolverine is right up there with Superman, Batman, and Spiderman, and his popularity CONTINUES to grow.

I've heard the same old argument from collectors for YEARS! "Don't invest in H181! It's a bubble!  Look at how high those numbers are! It's overpriced! OMG!" Blah, blah, blah. Ironically, this exact same conversation has been occurring for quite some time. You can dig up threads from years ago with people saying the exact same thing, and they were proven wrong time, and time again. Had I listened to any of those kinds of statements, I would have lost out on thousands, and thousands of investing dollars. 

I'll just say one last thing, If there is a H181 bubble, and it bursts, then the reason behind it is going to be a scary one, and it will effect us all. 

Edited April 5, 2019 by Darkowl

[talesof...]

1 hour ago, Darkowl said:

 

The manipulated/cancelled/whatever ebay sales you describe are the exception to the rule. Most ebay sales are legit, and the final numbers are quite comparable to other websites, like Heritage Auctions, for example. ebay usually has higher sales though, because there are more people aware of ebay than they are of HA (and other sites), so you're going to have more bids driving that price up.

Btw, I don't see us living in a world where AC1, or DC27 are investment books, and H181 isn't, because H181 is also a foundation book! It clearly doesn't matter how many copies are available (to an extent), because the demand has been exceeding that for years, long before they started making X-Men movies. Wolverine is right up there with Superman, Batman, and Spiderman, and his popularity CONTINUES to grow.

I've heard the same old argument from collectors for YEARS! "Don't invest in H181! It's a bubble!  Look at how high those numbers are! It's overpriced! OMG!" Blah, blah, blah. Ironically, this exact same conversation has been occurring for quite some time. You can dig up threads from years ago with people saying the exact same thing, and they were proven wrong time, and time again. Had I listened to any of those kinds of statements, I would have lost out on thousands, and thousands of investing dollars. 

I'll just say one last thing, If there is a H181 bubble, and it bursts, then the reason behind it is going to be a scary one, and it will effect us all. 

I dont see hulk 181 being the long term or a foundational book. It is a great book and a great character introduction but because the foundational books are of iconic status where if you see a batman symbol or a superman symbol or a spiderman symbol everyone in the world knows what that is. How old the books are only makes them that much more rare especially in higher condition provided it is authentic with no restoration. Hulk 181 is in a generation where adults are spending money on things they wanted when they were kids. They are becoming/are parents. but when their kids grow up living in a world where at the ripe age of 2/3 they start getting electronic things in their hands. The interests will go somewhere else and they may not view "old books" as something to spend money on. Things outside of the hobby also influence this. Politics, be it social or economical, will have an influence. I would say now a hulk 181 Is bragging rights for the guy who cant afford the foundational books. I would say in roughly 5 years time that will be the start of people not being able to make a profit, that will be the time when they will be fortunate to break even provided that they don't find someone's collection and give a fraction for it compared to online prices.

The people that will be able to afford the hiked up prices will be in a category where they want high amounts for their "investment" and some may not want to spend the money because reason x, y, z. so then the price will have to come down somewhat. Housing is another factor. Some people would rather buy a home than a comic book. The 'Kidult' generation that is buying the things they wanted when they were kids will realize that life is going by quickly and they will need to grow up. They will still like the characters but it wont be the same. They wont spend big money on comics anymore, that is until prices come down. But if prices hover around where they are now, that's fine for the seller, but it is not going to be a foundational book category worthy of investment, where someone will pay millions of dollars for a hulk 181. I honestly don't think anyone would even pay hundreds of thousands for a 181. If that ever happened, then it was some clueless sucker that got told silver tongue speeches about how great of an investment that book is and then the reality is going to hit him when he has a 9.8, and realizes he isn't special because thanks to all the pressing a cleaning everyone is doing, he isn't unique enough to command the high price he wants. So then he has a few options. Keep the book. Take a hit on the book. try to convince some other sucker its a big time investment and hope he can get rid of it that way. Or get extremely fortunate and run into a rich guy's kid who wants all the superhero books he can get his hands on no matter how much they cost because daddy can afford it.

All the sale data isn't reflecting the comics shops in the country that have some copies come in their stores from old collectors that are, well...getting old, and getting rid of their stuff they've been holding on to for their whole life. The fact is they aren't charging the prices on ebay. they are charging less. I got my hulk in a brick and mortar comic book shop. I paid 1700. All I expected to get was a 181. To my surprise when I was looking over the 181, the shop owner tells me it was 1700 for hulk 180, 181, and 182. they are in great shape. I couldn't believe it, especially after seeing the ebay prices. My local shop owner has 2 copies. one is an 8.0 cgc and I cant remember what the other is. He can't get rid of them. He wants way too much. He's holding on to the dream some guy with a ton of cash is going to walk in and say the 3 magic words. "I'll take it!" He's going on 4 years of waiting as of the time of this writing. He talks about hulk 181 being an investment book all the time.  The bottom line is at some point, there will be a number that people will not pay. I think in the next 3 to 5 years that number is going to show itself and I don't think it will be as high as what investors hoped for. I cant help but wonder about the data of loss/gain. What does the data say about the dip in profit? I paid the price I paid because I like the character but I had a number I was not willing to pay. The same has to be thought of people trying to "invest" what number is too low for their profit margin? I'm curious about the people that took losses on their investments. There is no way 181 is ALL profit. That doesn't even happen in the stock market. It's about loss/gain. If 181 is looked at as an investment where can I go to see the loss/gain data? cause I got a ton of cash (not bragging) I would absolutely spend in a heart beat for all profit, no loss comic books.

[RonS2112]

6 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

 

Spider-Man and Batman will outlast Mickey Mantle and Joe Namath.

 

Honus Wagner (and his card) would like a word with you.....

[Darkowl]

6 hours ago, talesof... said:

I dont see hulk 181 being the long term or a foundational book. It is a great book and a great character introduction but because the foundational books are of iconic status where if you see a batman symbol or a superman symbol or a spiderman symbol everyone in the world knows what that is. How old the books are only makes them that much more rare especially in higher condition provided it is authentic with no restoration. Hulk 181 is in a generation where adults are spending money on things they wanted when they were kids. They are becoming/are parents. but when their kids grow up living in a world where at the ripe age of 2/3 they start getting electronic things in their hands. The interests will go somewhere else and they may not view "old books" as something to spend money on. Things outside of the hobby also influence this. Politics, be it social or economical, will have an influence. I would say now a hulk 181 Is bragging rights for the guy who cant afford the foundational books. I would say in roughly 5 years time that will be the start of people not being able to make a profit, that will be the time when they will be fortunate to break even provided that they don't find someone's collection and give a fraction for it compared to online prices.

The people that will be able to afford the hiked up prices will be in a category where they want high amounts for their "investment" and some may not want to spend the money because reason x, y, z. so then the price will have to come down somewhat. Housing is another factor. Some people would rather buy a home than a comic book. The 'Kidult' generation that is buying the things they wanted when they were kids will realize that life is going by quickly and they will need to grow up. They will still like the characters but it wont be the same. They wont spend big money on comics anymore, that is until prices come down. But if prices hover around where they are now, that's fine for the seller, but it is not going to be a foundational book category worthy of investment, where someone will pay millions of dollars for a hulk 181. I honestly don't think anyone would even pay hundreds of thousands for a 181. If that ever happened, then it was some clueless sucker that got told silver tongue speeches about how great of an investment that book is and then the reality is going to hit him when he has a 9.8, and realizes he isn't special because thanks to all the pressing a cleaning everyone is doing, he isn't unique enough to command the high price he wants. So then he has a few options. Keep the book. Take a hit on the book. try to convince some other sucker its a big time investment and hope he can get rid of it that way. Or get extremely fortunate and run into a rich guy's kid who wants all the superhero books he can get his hands on no matter how much they cost because daddy can afford it.

All the sale data isn't reflecting the comics shops in the country that have some copies come in their stores from old collectors that are, well...getting old, and getting rid of their stuff they've been holding on to for their whole life. The fact is they aren't charging the prices on ebay. they are charging less. I got my hulk in a brick and mortar comic book shop. I paid 1700. All I expected to get was a 181. To my surprise when I was looking over the 181, the shop owner tells me it was 1700 for hulk 180, 181, and 182. they are in great shape. I couldn't believe it, especially after seeing the ebay prices. My local shop owner has 2 copies. one is an 8.0 cgc and I cant remember what the other is. He can't get rid of them. He wants way too much. He's holding on to the dream some guy with a ton of cash is going to walk in and say the 3 magic words. "I'll take it!" He's going on 4 years of waiting as of the time of this writing. He talks about hulk 181 being an investment book all the time.  The bottom line is at some point, there will be a number that people will not pay. I think in the next 3 to 5 years that number is going to show itself and I don't think it will be as high as what investors hoped for. I cant help but wonder about the data of loss/gain. What does the data say about the dip in profit? I paid the price I paid because I like the character but I had a number I was not willing to pay. The same has to be thought of people trying to "invest" what number is too low for their profit margin? I'm curious about the people that took losses on their investments. There is no way 181 is ALL profit. That doesn't even happen in the stock market. It's about loss/gain. If 181 is looked at as an investment where can I go to see the loss/gain data? cause I got a ton of cash (not bragging) I would absolutely spend in a heart beat for all profit, no loss comic books.

I couldn't disagree more that H181 is not a foundation book. Wolverine IS of iconic status. If you look at the most popular superhero polls across the web, you'll see that Wolverine usually ranks within the top 5. Saying Wolverine isn't an iconic character really comes across as biased. And the fact that H181 is not a rare book, but continues to fetch prices that defy decades of expectations should really tell you something about Wolverine's status in pop culture. 

"Hulk 181 is in a generation where adults are spending money on things they wanted when they were kids. They are becoming/are parents. but when their kids grow up living in a world where at the ripe age of 2/3 they start getting electronic things in their hands. The interests will go somewhere else and they may not view "old books" as something to spend money on."

I agree that this is a possibility, however if this happens to H181, it's also going to happen to Action and Detective. Those books aren't immune from generation disinterest either. 

"I would say now a hulk 181 Is bragging rights for the guy who cant afford the foundational books."

Another biased statement. Putting monetary value aside, I personally would much rather own H181 than AC1. I'm pretty sure I'm not in the minority there either. People aren't just buying H181, because they can't afford AC1, or AF15. If I wanted, I could buy an AF15 any day of the week. But again, I'd much rather own a copy of H181. 

"I would say in roughly 5 years time that will be the start of people not being able to make a profit, that will be the time when they will be fortunate to break even provided that they don't find someone's collection and give a fraction for it compared to online prices."

Except you have ZERO data to base a statement like this on. Don't get me wrong, I think all things have their limits, but 5 years? No way. If you don't think Wolverine is an icon, or that H181 isn't a foundation book at this point, you're in for a rude awakening when Disney starts pushing out X-Men films. That's the thing about Wolverine, there's still crazy room for him to grow in popularity, whereas I'm not entirely sure how much more room there is for Batman/Superman. Regardless, Disney plans on making X-Men films in the next 2-3 years, and I can guarantee that It's going to be at least a 10 year run with the franchise. This will continue to drive up the price of H181.  Just wait until they start selling Wolverine merch at Disneyland.  

"Housing is another factor. Some people would rather buy a home than a comic book. The 'Kidult' generation that is buying the things they wanted when they were kids will realize that life is going by quickly and they will need to grow up. They will still like the characters but it wont be the same. They wont spend big money on comics anymore, that is until prices come down. But if prices hover around where they are now, that's fine for the seller, but it is not going to be a foundational book category worthy of investment, where someone will pay millions of dollars for a hulk 181. I honestly don't think anyone would even pay hundreds of thousands for a 181." 

People will always have priorities, and will have to make sacrifices for what they want most. If someone owned a H181 that was worth 10K or 20K, and they wanted to buy a house, it actually might make sense for them to sell it so that they can have a down payment. However, It's really difficult to determine how many H181 owners are in this boat. I certainly don't think it's the majority. Frankly, I just don't think this particular argument is relevant enough to merit significant consideration. Ironically, H181 has proven to be a more solid investment than real estate. 

What someone is willing to pay doesn't make it a foundational book, but rather an outcome of it being a foundational book. I can guarantee that people would be spending A LOT more on H181 if it wasn't for the supply. In fact, 9.9 sold for 150K. 

"All the sale data isn't reflecting the comics shops in the country that have some copies come in their stores from old collectors that are, well...getting old, and getting rid of their stuff they've been holding on to for their whole life. The fact is they aren't charging the prices on ebay. they are charging less. I got my hulk in a brick and mortar comic book shop. I paid 1700. All I expected to get was a 181. To my surprise when I was looking over the 181, the shop owner tells me it was 1700 for hulk 180, 181, and 182. they are in great shape. I couldn't believe it, especially after seeing the ebay prices. My local shop owner has 2 copies. one is an 8.0 cgc and I cant remember what the other is. He can't get rid of them."

You're correct in that the sales data is not complete, but the GPA data is a valuable tool for looking at general sale numbers. If you're LCS owner is having difficulty selling H181, then he's doing it wrong. In fact, If his prices are below GPA, then please provide me with his info so I can contact him. I'd be more than happy to buy an 8.0 below gpa. Seriously. 

You also have to take into consideration that selling comics locally is a different beast altogether. For one, sellers don't have to worry about fees, so they can sell cheaper than ebay, and still make a profit. Secondly, in my experience, it's actually more difficult to sell locally, because It's hard to generate the views and interest that's so easily achievable with ebay, and other online avenues. What took me 3 months to sell a book locally only took me 1 week to sell online, so I'd say selling locally and selling online isn't a fair comparison, and most LCS don't have difficulty selling copies of H181. That book is hotter than hot, and is one of the easiest books to sell. 

"The bottom line is at some point, there will be a number that people will not pay. I think in the next 3 to 5 years that number is going to show itself and I don't think it will be as high as what investors hoped for. I cant help but wonder about the data of loss/gain. What does the data say about the dip in profit? I paid the price I paid because I like the character but I had a number I was not willing to pay. The same has to be thought of people trying to "invest" what number is too low for their profit margin? I'm curious about the people that took losses on their investments. There is no way 181 is ALL profit. That doesn't even happen in the stock market. It's about loss/gain. If 181 is looked at as an investment where can I go to see the loss/gain data? cause I got a ton of cash (not bragging) I would absolutely spend in a heart beat for all profit, no loss comic books."

I agree. H181 will eventually reach a number that people will not pay, but we aren't even close to getting there yet. Take a look at the sales data for AF15. The numbers are going down. I think the same thing will happen to ALL books eventually, and they will hit a steady sweet spot. This is why I don't think H181 is a bubble, because bubbles pop. If H181 does decline in value, it will be a gradual decrease. 

As far 181 not being all profit, if you stayed away from 9.8's before their pitfall, and had you played your cards right (buy at or around gpa, don't sell for less than what you paid, etc.) 181 would have been all profit. All you had to do was buy a copy and sit on it for a year, and you would have made money. When Logan hit theaters I picked up a 9.0 for around 2k. I sat on it for about 2 years, and was able to sell it for over 5k. That's only one of many 181 profit stories that I have. I have been buying and selling this book for over 10 years now, and it has been nothing but profit. 

One last point I want to make. H181 is still a safe investment. Why? Forget all the reasons I've already listed, just focus on the fact that H181 is a relatively inexpensive book. You can pick up a good copy for around 2k, and losing 2k is easily recoverable (that's the worst that could happen). It's not like when people lost hundreds of thousands of dollars back '09 on real estate, something that everyone told me was solid. 

I also want to reiterate the fact that this debate has been going on for years now. Like I said, you can dig up old threads and see all the naysayers proclaiming doomsday for H181, but they have been proven wrong ever since. Eventually, eventually, the closest they will ever get to being right is when H181 does slowly start to creep down, just like AF15 is doing, but we just aren't there yet.

 

 

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

4 hours ago, RonS2112 said:

Honus Wagner (and his card) would like a word with you.....

Well, Honus Wagner is in a special category like Action Comics #1 and 1933 Double Eagle gold coin. The ultimate Holy grails of their respective hobbies.

With that said I bet eventually over time both Action Comics #1 along with Detective Comics # 27 will pass the Honus Wagner card and 1933 Double Eagle gold coin in value.

Let`s take a look at all three of their values in 20 years.

Let`s send each other a friendly pm reminder in 20 years to see how Action #1 and Detective Comics #27 held up against the Wagner card.

 

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

33 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

I personally would much rather own H181 than AC1. I'm pretty sure I'm not in the minority there either. People aren't just buying H181, because they can't afford AC1, or AF15. If I wanted, I could buy an AF15 any day of the week. But again, I'd much rather own a copy of H181. 

I agree with this. I am seeing something similar to this in the sportscard market where a good number of people rather own the key Michael Jordan and LeBron rookie cards over the 1952 Topps Mantle because many of these collectors grew up with Jordan or LeBron and never saw the Mick play. The same thing is kind of going on now with a different generation of collectors in comics that grew up with Wolverine and rather have his first appearance over Superman. 

[talesof...]

29 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

I couldn't disagree more that H181 is not a foundation book. Wolverine IS of iconic status. If you look at the most popular superhero polls across the web, you'll see that Wolverine usually ranks within the top 5. Saying Wolverine isn't an iconic character really comes across as biased. And the fact that H181 is not a rare book, but continues to fetch prices that defy decades of expectations should really tell you something about Wolverine's status in pop culture. 

"Hulk 181 is in a generation where adults are spending money on things they wanted when they were kids. They are becoming/are parents. but when their kids grow up living in a world where at the ripe age of 2/3 they start getting electronic things in their hands. The interests will go somewhere else and they may not view "old books" as something to spend money on."

I agree that this is a possibility, however if this happens to H181, it's also going to happen to Action and Detective. Those books aren't immune from generation disinterest either. 

"I would say now a hulk 181 Is bragging rights for the guy who cant afford the foundational books."

Another biased statement. Putting monetary value aside, I personally would much rather own H181 than AC1. I'm pretty sure I'm not in the minority there either. People aren't just buying H181, because they can't afford AC1, or AF15. If I wanted, I could buy an AF15 any day of the week. But again, I'd much rather own a copy of H181. 

"I would say in roughly 5 years time that will be the start of people not being able to make a profit, that will be the time when they will be fortunate to break even provided that they don't find someone's collection and give a fraction for it compared to online prices."

Except you have ZERO data to base a statement like this on. Don't get me wrong, I think all things have their limits, but 5 years? No way. If you don't think Wolverine is an icon, or that H181 isn't a foundation book at this point, you're in for a rude awakening when Disney starts pushing out X-Men films. That's the thing about Wolverine, there's still crazy room for him to grow in popularity, whereas I'm not entirely sure how much more room there is for Batman/Superman. Regardless, Disney plans on making X-Men films in the next 2-3 years, and I can guarantee that It's going to be at least a 10 year run with the franchise. This will continue to drive up the price of H181.  Just wait until they start selling Wolverine merch at Disneyland.  

"Housing is another factor. Some people would rather buy a home than a comic book. The 'Kidult' generation that is buying the things they wanted when they were kids will realize that life is going by quickly and they will need to grow up. They will still like the characters but it wont be the same. They wont spend big money on comics anymore, that is until prices come down. But if prices hover around where they are now, that's fine for the seller, but it is not going to be a foundational book category worthy of investment, where someone will pay millions of dollars for a hulk 181. I honestly don't think anyone would even pay hundreds of thousands for a 181." 

People will always have priorities, and will have to make sacrifices for what they want most. If someone owned a H181 that was worth 10K or 20K, and they wanted to buy a house, it actually might make sense for them to sell it so that they can have a down payment. However, It's really difficult to determine how many H181 owners are in this boat. I certainly don't think it's the majority. Frankly, I just don't think this particular argument is relevant enough to merit significant consideration. Ironically, H181 has proven to be a more solid investment than real estate. 

What someone is willing to pay doesn't make it a foundational book, but rather an outcome of it being a foundational book. I can guarantee that people would be spending A LOT more on H181 if it wasn't for the supply. In fact, 9.9 sold for 150K. 

"All the sale data isn't reflecting the comics shops in the country that have some copies come in their stores from old collectors that are, well...getting old, and getting rid of their stuff they've been holding on to for their whole life. The fact is they aren't charging the prices on ebay. they are charging less. I got my hulk in a brick and mortar comic book shop. I paid 1700. All I expected to get was a 181. To my surprise when I was looking over the 181, the shop owner tells me it was 1700 for hulk 180, 181, and 182. they are in great shape. I couldn't believe it, especially after seeing the ebay prices. My local shop owner has 2 copies. one is an 8.0 cgc and I cant remember what the other is. He can't get rid of them."

You're correct in that the sales data is not complete, but the GPA data is a valuable tool for looking at general sale numbers. If you're LCS owner is having difficulty selling H181, then he's doing it wrong. In fact, If his prices are below GPA, then please provide me with his info so I can contact him. I'd be more than happy to buy an 8.0 below gpa. Seriously. 

You also have to take into consideration that selling comics locally is a different beast altogether. For one, sellers don't have to worry about fees, so they can sell cheaper than ebay, and still make a profit. Secondly, in my experience, it's actually more difficult to sell locally, because It's hard to generate the views and interest that's so easily achievable with ebay, and other online avenues. What took me 3 months to sell a book locally only took me 1 week to sell online, so I'd say selling locally and selling online isn't a fair comparison, and most LCS don't have difficulty selling copies of H181. That book is hotter than hot, and is one of the easiest books to sell. 

"The bottom line is at some point, there will be a number that people will not pay. I think in the next 3 to 5 years that number is going to show itself and I don't think it will be as high as what investors hoped for. I cant help but wonder about the data of loss/gain. What does the data say about the dip in profit? I paid the price I paid because I like the character but I had a number I was not willing to pay. The same has to be thought of people trying to "invest" what number is too low for their profit margin? I'm curious about the people that took losses on their investments. There is no way 181 is ALL profit. That doesn't even happen in the stock market. It's about loss/gain. If 181 is looked at as an investment where can I go to see the loss/gain data? cause I got a ton of cash (not bragging) I would absolutely spend in a heart beat for all profit, no loss comic books."

I agree. H181 will eventually reach a number that people will not pay, but we aren't even close to getting there yet. Take a look at the sales data for AF15. The numbers are going down. I think the same thing will happen to ALL books eventually, and they will hit a steady sweet spot. This is why I don't think H181 is a bubble, because bubbles pop. If H181 does decline in value, it will be a gradual decrease. 

As far 181 not being all profit, if you stayed away from 9.8's before their pitfall, and had you played your cards right (buy at or around gpa, don't sell for less than what you paid, etc.) 181 would have been all profit. All you had to do was buy a copy and sit on it for a year, and you would have made money. When Logan hit theaters I picked up a 9.0 for around 2k. I sat on it for about 2 years, and was able to sell it for over 5k. That's only one of many 181 profit stories that I have. I have been buying and selling this book for over 10 years now, and it has been nothing but profit. 

One last point I want to make. H181 is still a safe investment. Why? Forget all the reasons I've already listed, just focus on the fact that H181 is a relatively inexpensive book. You can pick up a good copy for around 2k, and losing 2k is easily recoverable (that's the worst that could happen). It's not like when people lost hundreds of thousands of dollars back '09 on real estate, something that everyone told me was solid. 

I also want to reiterate the fact that this debate has been going on for years now. Like I said, you can dig up old threads and see all the naysayers proclaiming doomsday for H181, but they have been proven wrong ever since. Eventually, eventually, the closest they will ever get to being right is when H181 does slowly start to creep down, just like AF15 is doing, but we just aren't there yet.

 

 

 

Buying a 181 for around 2k and selling for 5k is a nice sum, but what is the data on loss/gain? since you have been selling and buying the book for so many years what is the highest amount of profit you have made? The point to that question is, I assume and (correct me if I am wrong) the highest profit you made was a few thousand dollars. That Is not a book claiming foundational status in monetary terms. which lets be honest, is how investors think. I like the character. He is one of my favorite characters. I have a vested interest in the character being a success. However, that book, though I really like the character, is not going to fetch prices that AC1 DC27 and AF15 will. At most from what I can tell the profit margin will be a few thousand dollars. That cannot be said about AC DC or AF. Those books are in the tens of thousands profit margins and way more.

I expect them to roll out with xmen movies in around 3 to 5 years. I also expect the investors to skyrocket their prices that only the wealthy can afford and not the average, everyday fan/collector. they have other priorities. So then its in a category where investors are trying to convince investors about the potential for a hulk 181. Then its rinse and repeat with ebay data and having to go through and determine the validity of the sales data to see if its ACTUAL money exchanging hands or canceled/nonpayment ect ect. At the time when the xmen movies roll out and wolverine is re introduced on screen the prices WILL soar. they will also sour. There might me a sucker here and there buying into the hype. Then he wont be able to get half of what he paid because if he is lumped in with a pool of investors there is no way a money guy is going to buy that book for those prices because the potential for profit is cut to a fraction. Where as a 2.0 Amazing fantasy 15 is fetching 20k. People want so badly 181 to be like that but even though the character and book are really awesome. I just don't see the numbers for it to be a book in the same caliber.  I never claimed you couldn't make money off the book if that is what you want to do. I do say there will be a limit to the money you will be able to make and I believe that number to show up in the next 3 to 5 years. The only time in my life I could of bought an AM15 and actually physically saw one was in the 90's maybe around 1995/96 I was 10 feet away from it and it was 500 dollars. I was a kid and had no money. No way were my parents going to buy me that book for that price back then. Had I found a way to get that book back then, the profit margin would of been in the 10s of thousands range if not more today. I cannot see someone buying a 181 now for a few thousands and getting the profit margin in that range in the next 10 years. \

The mouse having control of wolverine is also worrisome. If they downplay the character it will not add to the status. it will be true fans not being pleased because Disney is making wolverine family friendly. I think they will just turn him into a grouchy guy. They will probably cast clint eastwoods son (but that is an issue all by itself in terms of casting but it will effect pricing). Hes got a rough exterior but isn't really manly. That would fit disneys profile for a family friendly wolverine. Then the book prices might stay where they are now. If they do the character right. they will soar as I said but people wont spend the sky high prices after the initial run of people trying to capitalize on a trend that will fade in 6 mos afterwards. I just don't see Disney doing wolverine right though.

[miraclemet]

 

On 3/30/2019 at 5:41 PM, 234wallst said:

There are so many copies of IHI 181 that it is more prone to downside risk compared to let's say SA Marvel keys.  I think that's what people really mean when they say its overpriced.  Just about every Marvel SA key went through a hot period, and the supply of those books has notably dried up compared to years past.  But with IHI 181 there are still dozens upon dozens going up for sale with seemingly no end in sight.  

The size of the available inventory is only an impact if the change in the demand market is disproportionately affecting IH181. 

Considering economic behaviors, the larger demand pool actually keeps the asset from reacting as volatilely as a book with a smaller inventory and/or demand pool!

 

Also look back there was some analysis on the available inventory vs total inventory and IH181 was proportional to various other keys. 

Edited April 5, 2019 by miraclemet

[Darkowl]

9 minutes ago, talesof... said:

Buying a 181 for around 2k and selling for 5k is a nice sum, but what is the data on loss/gain? since you have been selling and buying the book for so many years what is the highest amount of profit you have made? The point to that question is, I assume and (correct me if I am wrong) the highest profit you made was a few thousand dollars. That Is not a book claiming foundational status in monetary terms. which lets be honest, is how investors think. I like the character. He is one of my favorite characters. I have a vested interest in the character being a success. However, that book, though I really like the character, is not going to fetch prices that AC1 DC27 and AF15 will. At most from what I can tell the profit margin will be a few thousand dollars. That cannot be said about AC DC or AF. Those books are in the tens of thousands profit margins and way more.

I expect them to roll out with xmen movies in around 3 to 5 years. I also expect the investors to skyrocket their prices that only the wealthy can afford and not the average, everyday fan/collector. they have other priorities. So then its in a category where investors are trying to convince investors about the potential for a hulk 181. Then its rinse and repeat with ebay data and having to go through and determine the validity of the sales data to see if its ACTUAL money exchanging hands or canceled/nonpayment ect ect. At the time when the xmen movies roll out and wolverine is re introduced on screen the prices WILL soar. they will also sour. There might me a sucker here and there buying into the hype. Then he wont be able to get half of what he paid because if he is lumped in with a pool of investors there is no way a money guy is going to buy that book for those prices because the potential for profit is cut to a fraction. Where as a 2.0 Amazing fantasy 15 is fetching 20k. People want so badly 181 to be like that but even though the character and book are really awesome. I just don't see the numbers for it to be a book in the same caliber.  I never claimed you couldn't make money off the book if that is what you want to do. I do say there will be a limit to the money you will be able to make and I believe that number to show up in the next 3 to 5 years. The only time in my life I could of bought an AM15 and actually physically saw one was in the 90's maybe around 1995/96 I was 10 feet away from it and it was 500 dollars. I was a kid and had no money. No way were my parents going to buy me that book for that price back then. Had I found a way to get that book back then, the profit margin would of been in the 10s of thousands range if not more today. I cannot see someone buying a 181 now for a few thousands and getting the profit margin in that range in the next 10 years. \

The mouse having control of wolverine is also worrisome. If they downplay the character it will not add to the status. it will be true fans not being pleased because Disney is making wolverine family friendly. I think they will just turn him into a grouchy guy. They will probably cast clint eastwoods son (but that is an issue all by itself in terms of casting but it will effect pricing). Hes got a rough exterior but isn't really manly. That would fit disneys profile for a family friendly wolverine. Then the book prices might stay where they are now. If they do the character right. they will soar as I said but people wont spend the sky high prices after the initial run of people trying to capitalize on a trend that will fade in 6 mos afterwards. I just don't see Disney doing wolverine right though.

So when you say "foundational book", you're only referring its monetary value?

Again, you keep overhyping the illegitimate ebay sales. I hate having to repeat myself, but the sales from other websites are not too far off from what ebay is selling books for, sometime it's more, sometimes it's less, but ebay sales are usually accurate.  In regards to cancellations or returns, out of the hundreds of books I've sold on ebay, I've only had 1 return. 

Disney could screw up Wolverine or the X-Men, but what's more likely to happen given their ridiculously successful track record? Disney has already stated that they will continue to make R-rated Deadpool films, so I wouldn't bank too much on a "family friendly" version of Wolverine at this point.

[miraclemet]

1 minute ago, Darkowl said:

So when you say "foundational book", you're only referring its monetary value?

Again, you keep overhyping the illegitimate ebay sales. I hate having to repeat myself, but the sales from other websites are not too far off from what ebay is selling books for, sometime it's more, sometimes it's less, but ebay sales are usually accurate.  In regards to cancellations or returns, out of the hundreds of books I've sold on ebay, I've only had 1 return. 

Disney could screw up Wolverine or the X-Men, but what's more likely to happen given their ridiculously successful track record? Disney has already stated that they will continue to make R-rated Deadpool films, so I wouldn't bank too much on a "family friendly" version of Wolverine at this point.

Also most of us doing analysis are using GPA, and they do a good job scrubbing out bad sale data. 

[Darkowl]

1 minute ago, miraclemet said:

Also most of us doing analysis are using GPA, and they do a good job scrubbing out bad sale data. 

Indeed!

[miraclemet]

 

1 hour ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

I agree with this. I am seeing something similar to this in the sportscard market where a good number of people rather own the key Michael Jordan and LeBron rookie cards over the 1952 Topps Mantle because many of these collectors grew up with Jordan or LeBron and never saw the Mick play. The same thing is kind of going on now with a different generation of collectors in comics that grew up with Wolverine and rather have his first appearance over Superman. 

Are "key cards" from the 50s and earlier declining in value? I have no idea as I got out of sportscards in the early 90s...

Is there a GPA for baseball cards? 

[ComicConnoisseur]

2 hours ago, miraclemet said:

 

Are "key cards" from the 50s and earlier declining in value? I have no idea as I got out of sportscards in the early 90s...

Is there a GPA for baseball cards? 

They have actually exploded in value these last 10 years,especially Jackie Robinson rookie.

Here is a good site.

http://www.vintagecardprices.com/

The big short-term money also has been in modern rookie cards.There is like at least one break out rookie card every year.  Aaron Judge,Ohtani,Mahomes and Connor McDavid rookie cards were on fire at different times during the last 2 years.

The sportscard market is very strong right now just like comic book keys.

 

 

 

[fishbone]

17 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

This.

Great post.

I always saw

comic book keys = better long term investment.

sports rookie cards = better short term investment.

The sports stars just have a short shelf life compared to the comic book super hero icons.

Spider-Man and Batman will outlast Mickey Mantle and Joe Namath.

 

I also switched "back" to my first childhood passion : comics , from hockey cards in late 90's. Although I've kept my favourites, I stopped wasting money on cards and put it into something WAY more fun  , GA and SA.