The fallacy of "IH181 is overvalued/overpriced" 5 5

[ComicConnoisseur]

2 minutes ago, fishbone said:

I also switched "back" to my first childhood passion : comics , from hockey cards in late 90's. Although I've kept my favourites, I stopped wasting money on cards and put it into something WAY more fun  , GA and SA.

I enjoy both hobbies comic books and sportscards. I also like video games and vinyl records(hip-hop/rock). I find them all fun.  One thing though I like about comics is the history is off the charts. Always discovering something new.  

[miraclemet]

2 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

They have actually exploded in value these last 10 years,especially Jackie Robinson rookie.

...

The sportscard market is very strong right now just like comic book keys.

 

 

 

But you expect a downturn as the collectors who watched Mickey Mantle (or in comics case grew up wanting IH181) retire from the hobby?

 

Im always at mental odds with the idea since Im a 40 year old (which means I should be focused on ASM252 or Barry Bonds rookie cards) but as a teen I collected '51 Bowmans and currently I love GA Sci Fi comics that came out 25 years before I was born...

[talesof...]

5 hours ago, Darkowl said:

So when you say "foundational book", you're only referring its monetary value?

Again, you keep overhyping the illegitimate ebay sales. I hate having to repeat myself, but the sales from other websites are not too far off from what ebay is selling books for, sometime it's more, sometimes it's less, but ebay sales are usually accurate.  In regards to cancellations or returns, out of the hundreds of books I've sold on ebay, I've only had 1 return. 

Disney could screw up Wolverine or the X-Men, but what's more likely to happen given their ridiculously successful track record? Disney has already stated that they will continue to make R-rated Deadpool films, so I wouldn't bank too much on a "family friendly" version of Wolverine at this point.

If you talk about how much money you made off of hulk 181, you are putting monetary value on the book. I am a collector and I don't plan on selling my collection nor do I expect to get a substantial sum for it. If this discussion is about profitability and using comics as an investment. But you seem to think that hulk 181 is going to fetch a boat load of money. I don't like repeating myself either. I am a collector and I like the character. Wolverine is one of my favorites. But there is no way that book will reach the profitability that you investors are hoping for. I assume you hope to be able to retire off of hulk 181 but as an investment the big foundational books I mentioned are the only real investment books. That may be disappointing to hear but its truth. Golden age books are getting golden money silver are getting silver money and Bronze Age are getting a couple thousand for profit 

[Darkowl]

17 minutes ago, talesof... said:

If you talk about how much money you made off of hulk 181, you are putting monetary value on the book. I am a collector and I don't plan on selling my collection nor do I expect to get a substantial sum for it. If this discussion is about profitability and using comics as an investment. But you seem to think that hulk 181 is going to fetch a boat load of money. I don't like repeating myself either. I am a collector and I like the character. Wolverine is one of my favorites. But there is no way that book will reach the profitability that you investors are hoping for. I assume you hope to be able to retire off of hulk 181 but as an investment the big foundational books I mentioned are the only real investment books. That may be disappointing to hear but its truth. Golden age books are getting golden money silver are getting silver money and Bronze Age are getting a couple thousand for profit 

Not only have you missed several of my points (or at least failed to acknowledge them), but you are now putting words in my mouth, as well as formulating false assumptions against me. Peace. 

[ComicConnoisseur]

4 hours ago, miraclemet said:

But you expect a downturn as the collectors who watched Mickey Mantle (or in comics case grew up wanting IH181) retire from the hobby?

 

Im always at mental odds with the idea since Im a 40 year old (which means I should be focused on ASM252 or Barry Bonds rookie cards) but as a teen I collected '51 Bowmans and currently I love GA Sci Fi comics that came out 25 years before I was born...

I am going by baby boomers right now are buying the Mickey Mantle and other 1950/60s stars cards. I don`t expect that trend to continue. 1950/60s players fandom is dying out, while the super heroes are continuing to get new fans everyday because of the movies, Netflix,videogames and CW shows.

So the vintage 1950/60s baseballl players audience is dying out,while the comic keys audience is getting bigger every year.

Ask anybody under 30 who Spider-Man, Batman and Wolverine are, than ask them who Mickey Mantle,Yaz or Duke Snider is?

That about sums it up what market will be a better bet in 10-20 years long term.

Sports stars have short shelf lives compared to the iconic superheroes.

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by ComicConnoisseur

[Prince Namor]

On 3/21/2019 at 8:40 AM, Bejack3 said:

Yep, it's funny until the day it actually is overpriced. The DOW is up almost 40% since two years ago and Disney conicidentally bought the Xmen back recently. Books never appreciate when the movies come out, but rather when the speculation starts. I have a record sale for a NM- Ironman 55, just look at the prices on that book currently.

1

Comparing Thanos, a villain, who is sporadically used in comics and has already hit his current movie popularity spike to what is maybe THE most consistently popular super hero of the modern age over the last 40 years is not even fair comparison. 

On 3/21/2019 at 8:40 AM, Bejack3 said:

When the stocks start to falter and the market is soft, all these books go up for sale, and there are a lot of IH181's. All the 30-45 year old family men who are "new" collectors that had a few extra grand and bought a few key books, specifically IH181, will hock their books up on Ebay or comiclink when money gets tighter and they have to choose between getting their family nice stuff off Amazon, or buying a new car, or paying for college or keeping the book.

And then any collector who is thinking, "What key should I buy now?" because they may NOT be all that affected by the stock market, will see plenty of IH181's available and see that's it's still affordable in Higher Grade compared to Silver Age Mega Keys and the process will continue.

When AF15 exploded again 4-5 years ago, the book was 50+ years old. Wolverine's got another 20 years before it reaches that age.

Can it get that high in price?

Consider this. When I joined this forum nearly 10 years ago (2010), people said, no way that IH181 can get any higher. They were wrong. It's gone up more than 10X in price since then across all grades. The believers in the book at the time said, that 8 years previous to THAT, people on this forum were saying there was NO WAY it would reach the type of prices it eventually hit in 2010. Which, it of course did.

And what was the argument against it each time? Too many copies. Not enough demand. 

They were just as convinced as everyone is now. 

[ExNihilo]

17 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Ask anybody under 30 who Spider-Man, Batman and Wolverine are, than ask them who Mickey Mantle,Yaz or Duke Snider is?

That about sums it up what market will be a better bet in 10-20 years long term.

Sports stars have short shelf lives compared to the iconic superheroes.

I think it's also fair to point out that the hobby of collecting sports cards amongst children isn't what it was 20-30 years ago.  When I was a kid, I would get baseball and football cards (this was all before I was introduced to comics).  Kids these days aren't interested in sports cards.  But (as you pointed out), they are aware of superheroes because of movies/tv shows.  And as a result of that, demand for key books will continue to remain high as new buyers (and new money) enters the marketplace.  I take myself as an example as I am currently starting to seriously consider buying IH181 myself.

[valiantman]

5 hours ago, Chuck Gower said:

When AF15 exploded again 4-5 years ago, the book was 50+ years old. Wolverine's got another 20 years before it reaches that age.

Hulk #181 is 45 years old.

[ADAMANTIUM]

12 minutes ago, valiantman said:

6 hours ago, Chuck Gower said:

When AF15 exploded again 4-5 years ago, the book was 50+ years old. Wolverine's got another 20 years before it reaches that age.

Hulk #181 is 45 years old.

How about just putting it like AF 15 is 11 years older than IH 181

So as to how often your percentage of "changing hands", it isn't but what 16% that have been resold twice or more...?

I say it's at a good leveling off price at the moment, but as higher graded copies go into hands of collectors that can afford the price, I expect fewer available for sale. Unless more high grade come to market?

 

[Prince Namor]

22 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Hulk #181 is 45 years old.

Oh yeah... where'd I get that? 

Wait a minute, that's all you got out of that rant?

[valiantman]

1 minute ago, Chuck Gower said:

25 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Hulk #181 is 45 years old.

Oh yeah... where'd I get that? 

Wait a minute, that's all you got out of that rant?

Yeah, I only respond to offending math.

[oakman29]

12 hours ago, Chuck Gower said:

Oh yeah... where'd I get that? 

Wait a minute, that's all you got out of that rant?

You could sing the rant?

[lordisam]

4 hours ago, oakman29 said:

You could sing the rant?

K-K-K-K-Ken. C-c-c-c-come to k-k-k-k-kill me.

faaaaa.....faaaaaa.... forty five years ooold...

[Prince Namor]

6 hours ago, oakman29 said:

You could sing the rant?

You've got no reason to interact with me other than as a troll, so I'm going to assume when you DO, it is to troll me. And that is against forum policy. From this point on I'll simply report your post as a violation. The ignore function is there for a reason. 

[oakman29]

20 minutes ago, Chuck Gower said:

You've got no reason to interact with me other than as a troll, so I'm going to assume when you DO, it is to troll me. And that is against forum policy. From this point on I'll simply report your post as a violation. The ignore function is there for a reason. 

Dude I'm just playing with you, you dont have to get all crazy. I think of you just as I do with all the board members here, as a friend. If you cant play around with your friends , who can you play with.

Get a thicker skin dude.

Is this the reason kav got a vacation? I'm inclined to say yes.

Edited April 7, 2019 by oakman29

[Prince Namor]

4 hours ago, oakman29 said:

Dude I'm just playing with you, you dont have to get all crazy. I think of you just as I do with all the board members here, as a friend. If you cant play around with your friends , who can you play with.

Get a thicker skin dude.

Is this the reason kav got a vacation? I'm inclined to say yes.

You’re not my friend. You know exactly what you’re doing. 

And to blame ME for kav’s vacation? Hilarious. But thanks for confirmation as to your motives. 

 

[oakman29]

23 minutes ago, Chuck Gower said:

You’re not my friend. You know exactly what you’re doing. 

And to blame ME for kav’s vacation? Hilarious. But thanks for confirmation as to your motives. 

 

Unfortunately Im not smart enough for the motives you say Im doing, but thank you for believing in me. I really am trying to be friends here with everyone . I have a very rough job, and I really just want to enjoy comic book talk, and being with friends. If that's not what you want so be it, but your friendship is all I ask.

[CycleGirl]

IH181 is a huge key for certain. However, there are a LOT of them out there. Almost 10k have been graded by CGC and about half of the graded books are 7.0 and higher. It stands to reason that there are tens of thousands of raw copies out there below 8.0 . 

The bottom line is that value is based on demand and scarcity. IH181 certainly has demand but it is not particularly scarce. On the other hand, I've heard GA collectors say that AF 15 is not scarce, so there you go, it's all relative isn't it? 

 

Edited April 8, 2019 by CycleGirl

[miraclemet]

14 hours ago, CycleGirl said:

IH181 is a huge key for certain. However, there are a LOT of them out there. Almost 10k have been graded by CGC and about half of the graded books are 7.0 and higher. It stands to reason that there are tens of thousands of raw copies out there below 8.0 . 

The bottom line is that value is based on demand and scarcity. IH181 certainly has demand but it is not particularly scarce. On the other hand, I've heard GA collectors say that AF 15 is not scarce, so there you go, it's all relative isn't it? 

 

 

Right, it doesnt "feel" scarce, but when you consider the expansive demand pool, there is enough demand vs scarcity to maintain the current value and increase it over the years. 

Now, the movie related speculation following the Disney/Fox merger may be a temporary boost to the market value that can't be sustained (in it's rising rate) but at least should be able to hold a plateau or resume rising at "normal" levels as it did before the spike from the speculation about Wolverine being in the MCU movies. 

I mean there hasnt been a MCU movie speculation book tied to a central hero that has dropped back below it's pre-speculation value has there? TTA27, 

The only books I know that fizzled were books tied to one off villains like Mandarin (ToS 50)  or Silver Samura (DD111) which went up, and then dropped after their movie appearances. 

 

[RonS2112]

On ‎4‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 1:55 PM, ExNihilo said:

I think it's also fair to point out that the hobby of collecting sports cards amongst children isn't what it was 20-30 years ago.  When I was a kid, I would get baseball and football cards (this was all before I was introduced to comics).  Kids these days aren't interested in sports cards.  But (as you pointed out), they are aware of superheroes because of movies/tv shows.  And as a result of that, demand for key books will continue to remain high as new buyers (and new money) enters the marketplace.  I take myself as an example as I am currently starting to seriously consider buying IH181 myself.

 

Walk into any Walmart or Target in the country, and right next to the checkout area, you will see a GIANT selection of Magic, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh, and yes, sports cards for a variety of sports, by a variety of companies.  I think the demand for sports cards is about on par as the demand for comics (which, by the way, neither the aforementioned Target nor Walmart carry).