The fallacy of "IH181 is overvalued/overpriced" 5 5

[miraclemet]

3 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

I can't help but think that Hulk 181 is now the beany baby of comic collecting, and the high prices are being paid by speculators.  

I paid $5 for my Hulk 181.  I have no desire to sell (and by extension CGC) because it is part of the New X-Men collection I put together in the late 70s and 80s.  I'm not an unusual demographic in today's collecting community, and when my demographic begins to sell our collections as we near retirement, it will impact the X-Men market profoundly.  I would not be seeking out that book today, as there are many cooler and much much much rarer books for the price.  

 

but then there is the demo that grew up with the 90s cartoon

and the demo that grew up with the 21st century Fox movies....

and who knows what's next...

The beanie baby parallel is interesting to look at for its non-parallels. 

One of the reasons that the beanie baby market crashed was that the only people that collected beanie babies at collector prices were the people who collected them for value purposes. People (or more notably kids) who just wanted a beanie baby could buy a new one for retail rather than pay the inflated rate for retired ones. The only people who were willing to pay the higher prices were people who were collecting in hopes of the prices going up, so it a 100% self enforcing market, which doesn't last. Maybe if Beanie babies could have lasted long enough to the point where kids of the 2000s were wanting to collect their youth they could have built a collectors market. Markets need a mix of speculators (or dealers) and collectors. If the equation weighs to heavily in either direction, the market tumbles. For Beanie Babies over extension with McDonalds may have pushed it to an early death. Luckilly comics has a mix of collectors and dealers, and the product is not as static (every issue is different) as beanie babies (difference are not important to many of their collectors, a brown bear is a brown bear, with only the dealer/speculator differentiating between the '97 bear and the '98 bear, while everyone sees a difference between IH181 and IH197)

but it is a cautionary tale for sure (looking at you modern speculators buying the incentive covers!)

[RCheli]

31 minutes ago, miraclemet said:

Do you think they have a disproportionately high number of in hand sales vs other books? And while I know GPA is limited, Im using it as a baseline so its a data limitation across all the books. Though if you are saying IH181 and ASM129 are sold in person more than other books that would weigh one way over the other. 

Again, do you have some evidence that points to them disproportionately selling in hand vs through online ventures? (Im interested!)

I could actually argue the other way around. Due to their high price, they are LESS likely to be bought in hand out of peoples desire to not walk around a convention with that kind of cash in hand. So they are more likely to buy online where bank transfers and paypals are easier (though I can also argue against myself that buyers, when putting down big money, like to see something in hand before they spend big)... see I can have this whole argument with myself!

I don't have any evidence, but I think that -- unless you're talking 9.4s and higher -- the price of an IH181 isn't so out of line for people not to buy it at cons/have money on hand. I mean, I would love to know how many copies Gator sells at NYCC or other large shows; I'm sure it's not an insignificant amount.

[rjpb]

Low grade SA Major Marvel keys are crossing into the 5 figure range, climbing out of reach for many a collector. Wolverine is the most popular character from the BA, and while Hulk 181 is far more plentiful than the early SA Marvel keys, it's also still far more affordable. 

[DTM700]

47 minutes ago, miraclemet said:

What is your basis for it growing "too fast"? ASM129 trippled over 6 years from $600 to $1800+ (CGC 9.0), during the same period IH181 quadrupled. Yes thats more, but Wolverine has had the exposure of 9 global movies, while Punisher has had a 2 season netflix series. a 4x vs a 3x multiplier seems pretty scant considering how much more exposure Wolverine has had..

Yes, growing 300% and 400% respectively over six years is too fast imo. I understand there is correlation to exposure, but all these 1st appearance books having insane gains feels like artificial growth, hype, FOMO, speculation, whatever you wanna call it. Best example I can think of is WWBM 32. But that's a whole other topic. 

Back to topic, your post on availability and census was good - appreciate your legwork on the numbers. However we need to also look at motives for selling. Currently there is no news on Wolverine and Punisher just got cancelled. So I would argue those two books are in a lull with little motivation to sell other than to cash out. The availability numbers would be interesting to see at peak sales periods during movie or show announcements. Food for though.

 

[miraclemet]

13 minutes ago, Callaway29 said:

Oh I dunno...SC22 feels about right at the moment.... Or are you looking for a bronze book? Making me think man...how dare you..

well a bronze book helps to control variables for the sake of comparison. I wouldnt be surprised to see someones collection contain an IH181 and an ASM129, but if there was a Showcase 22 in there I would do a little double take... but I appreciate you naming a book... let me think about that... 

 

A SC22 has a CGC 3.0 as its census median, which would be priced around $2200. That book in the last 6 years has...only doubled in value. 

Now it has a lower census (1000 copies) vs those bronze books for obvious reasons. It also has fewer copies in the market, 19. But that's 1.9% of the census. The same market representation as IH181. 

So why hasnt SC22 increased like ASM129 (which means it should be around $3300) or IH181 (which means it should be around $4400)? It had a movie... but well... that certainly didn't help it. It came along 3 years after the start of the MCU, but a year before the Avengers movie really created the MCU. It came after The Dark Knight but before DKR. And 2 years before the advent of the DCU with Man of Steel. Point being the bar had not gotten so high yet, and yet GL was widely panned. 

I actually wonder if post 2011 movie fail if there was a market correction on it... Let's look. 

Basically there are two bumps that set new levels the first movie release set one new level (went from $500 to $1000) and then the announcement of a new movie as a part of the DCU put the book at the next level (from $1000 to $2000-ish)

So it's interesting when you look at IH181... it doesn't react to movie news. It just goes up... It doesnt bump and level. The two books react in the market completely differently. Which is the "right" way to react. You could argue that SC22 is actually MORE movie dependant than IH181 since it goes up without any seeming specific influence of the movies. 

[miraclemet]

10 minutes ago, DTM700 said:

Yes, growing 300% and 400% respectively over six years is too fast imo. I understand there is correlation to exposure, but all these 1st appearance books having insane gains feels like artificial growth, hype, FOMO, speculation, whatever you wanna call it. Best example I can think of is WWBM 32. But that's a whole other topic. 

 Back to topic, your post on availability and census was good - appreciate your legwork on the numbers. However we need to also look at motives for selling. Currently there is no news on Wolverine and Punisher just got cancelled. So I would argue those two books are in a lull with little motivation to sell other than to cash out. The availability numbers would be interesting to see at peak sales periods during movie or show announcements. Food for though.

 

There's lots of speculation around Wolverine's apearance in the MCU following Disney (owners of the MCU) buying Fox (owners of X-men/Wolverine). 

Which makes me think people are actually in a "Hold" mode with IH181 awaiting some actual announcement of a movie (thus less availability)

While I cant see market availability by year, looking at price increases IH181 seems unaffected by movies/announcements, it's just a steady exponential trend up. 

 

So your "too fast" is just your opinion, which is fine, but it doesn't help me in analysis. The book doubled between 2012 and 2015 and then doubled again between 2015 and 2019. Now I want to go hunt for similar books...

 

 

[newshane]

1 hour ago, entalmighty1 said:

Just to highlight this part about scarcity.  I don't say this to be high-handed, or holier-than-thou, but until I got into Golden Age collecting, I had an exceptionally skewed vision of what scarcity was.  There is almost NOTHING that is truly scarce, especially bronze age or later.  I'm nowhere near the level of most "hunters" on these forums, and I've bought and sold plenty of Hulk 181's.  The book isn't even close to scarce, in high grade or otherwise.

I've found most people that think this stuff is hard to come by generally aren't looking in the right spots.  The outrageous amount of graded copies on the census tells you this book is abundant, and readily available.  I can't remember the last con I went to that didn't have at least 2 of these in the room somewhere.

That said, with books like 181 or ASM 129, it has to fall back to supply and demand in some form.  I still feel like a lot of the price increases are related to the same book(s) being sold over and over again in rapid succession, but that may just be my tin foil hat tendency acting up.  

Hulk 181 is the closest thing to cash in hand you can have in today's market, at least to my eyes.

Excellent post. 

181 is over-valued because there are too many of them. 

...and you have a few big time dealers who are scooping up every copy they can find so....

you gotta keep that in mind as well. 

 

[Callaway29]

10 minutes ago, miraclemet said:

well a bronze book helps to control variables for the sake of comparison. I wouldnt be surprised to see someones collection contain an IH181 and an ASM129, but if there was a Showcase 22 in there I would do a little double take... but I appreciate you naming a book... let me think about that... 

 

A SC22 has a CGC 3.0 as its census median, which would be priced around $2200. That book in the last 6 years has...only doubled in value. 

Now it has a lower census (1000 copies) vs those bronze books for obvious reasons. It also has fewer copies in the market, 19. But that's 1.9% of the census. The same market representation as IH181. 

So why hasnt SC22 increased like ASM129 (which means it should be around $3300) or IH181 (which means it should be around $4400)? It had a movie... but well... that certainly didn't help it. It came along 3 years after the start of the MCU, but a year before the Avengers movie really created the MCU. It came after The Dark Knight but before DKR. And 2 years before the advent of the DCU with Man of Steel. Point being the bar had not gotten so high yet, and yet GL was widely panned. 

I actually wonder if post 2011 movie fail if there was a market correction on it... Let's look. 

Basically there are two bumps that set new levels the first movie release set one new level (went from $500 to $1000) and then the announcement of a new movie as a part of the DCU put the book at the next level (from $1000 to $2000-ish)

So it's interesting when you look at IH181... it doesn't react to movie news. It just goes up... It doesnt bump and level. The two books react in the market completely differently. Which is the "right" way to react. You could argue that SC22 is actually MORE movie dependant than IH181 since it goes up without any seeming specific influence of the movies. 

Appreciate the analysis! I added Swamp Thing 1 to my original post as a bronze example btw...

I don't think IH181 is immune to movie buzz...it's just benefited from an endless stream of movies resulting in no "bumps".

What's causing the sudden and dramatic increase in price? Folks keep hanging their hat on demand...does legitimate collector demand for multi-thousand dollar comic books really double in the span of a year?

Personally, I think it's a combination of a self-fulfilling prophecy (price going up, people buy because of that, which drives the price up even more) + fox/disney acquisition hype. 

[miraclemet]

8 minutes ago, Callaway29 said:

Appreciate the analysis! I added Swamp Thing 1 to my original post as a bronze example btw...

I don't think IH181 is immune to movie buzz...it's just benefited from an endless stream of movies resulting in no "bumps".

What's causing the sudden and dramatic increase in price? Folks keep hanging their hat on demand...does legitimate collector demand for multi-thousand dollar comic books really double in the span of a year?

 Personally, I think it's a combination of a self-fulfilling prophecy (price going up, people buy because of that, which drives the price up even more) + fox/disney acquisition hype. 

I think the recent bump is the first one that really can be directly tied to movie speculation/news.  With Disney buying Fox there's anticipation since the second half of 2018 about an eventual X-men in the MCU movie. The bumps are more obvious in lower grades. 

I think the general increase in market value for graded comics has allowed collectors to flip books they had for books they previously didnt think they could get. 

Maybe IH181 was always out of range, so collector had other books, that have since increased thanks to market and movie news driving their prices up, which then allows them to sell those books, combine funds and then purchase the book that was their grail like an IH181. It's a lot easier to spend 3k on a book when you know you built up that warchest on selling some $100 books for $300-400 and that $3k only cost you $1k in the first place (so it's not like you've really spent $3k)

 

(and Im speaking about this mindset and strategy from my own selling/buying in the last year as GA books went up I've been able to sell off some  to create enough $$ to buy some books I always figured were out of reach)

[miraclemet]

26 minutes ago, newshane said:

Excellent post. 

181 is over-valued because there are too many of them. 

...and you have a few big time dealers who are scooping up every copy they can find so....

you gotta keep that in mind as well. 

 

how are there too many of them? 
If there were too many for the market, economic markets dictate that the prices would be going down not up. 

 

Though the "dealers scooping up copies" thing is interesting. Are they scooping to hold (which would help explain the smaller market availability vs other bronze super hero keys)? 

[dupont2005]

Everything is worth exactly what it sells for at a well publicized auction with a wide reach of buyers interested in that exact item. CGC comics fit that criteria incredibly well. A mid categorized auction or an item listed for sale in the wrong venue could be low priced outliers, or a more obscure item with fewer interested parties who would have bid the item up more had they known or had access to the venue. Otherwise it is what it is

[SuperBird]

I remember about 10 years ago when there were so many copies of this other Marvel hero first appearance on eBay I couldn't imagine it ever going up....

 

[miraclemet]

18 minutes ago, Callaway29 said:

Appreciate the analysis! I added Swamp Thing 1 to my original post as a bronze example btw...

Ok you said Swampy 1, but that made me think of HOS92, which is a definate bronze key. 

And it shares some similarities to IH181!

Far smaller census, only 2000, and its median grade is lower than either IH181 or ASM129, around a 7.0 (dang you horror fans, dont you know how to take care of your books?!?!) 

There are 20 on the GPA market report right now, so that's down at a 1% availability, lower than any of the super heroes!

Looking at the price movement for the mean grade (7.0) we see similar exponential growth like IH181. 

Lets remember IH181 doubled between 2012 and 2015 and then doubled again between 2015 and 2019

HOS in 2012 was generally a $200 book (there's one outlier)

In 2015 it was about a $400 book (maybe a few bucks lower)

Then in 2019 it was a $1700 book, so it's actually grown faster than IH181!

 

This makes me think that Swamp Things market is actually proportionally BIGGER (vs the census) than Wolverine's market since it has grown faster
Sell your IH181 stock! Buy all the HoS92 stock you can find!

 

[miraclemet]

10 minutes ago, dupont2005 said:

Everything is worth exactly what it sells for at a well publicized auction with a wide reach of buyers interested in that exact item. CGC comics fit that criteria incredibly well. A mid categorized auction or an item listed for sale in the wrong venue could be low priced outliers, or a more obscure item with fewer interested parties who would have bid the item up more had they known or had access to the venue. Otherwise it is what it is

agreed, thats why I never understood the position that "Book X is not worth that" when there's market data to support it...

[RCheli]

While I think that IH181 is overpriced/valued, the character's importance (likely #2 behind Spider-Man in the MU) merits much of its hype. There are other Bronze books that I think are much more overvalued. WBN32 is the best example -- the first appearance of a third-tier Marvel character that has a minuscule following -- but there are others (MP15, HFH1, etc). 

[MGsimba77]

4 hours ago, miraclemet said:

Recession: We had one from 2007-2009. High Grade comics did not tank during that period. If you look at the sales prices during that time, yes they stagnated, but considering that's in the early days of CGC growth where we should have expected to see prices drops due to a mix of the recession and the influx of graded comics to the market with the expansion of CGC. Demand was able to prop up values during the recession, mostly because our collector environment is a smaller number of people with a higher percentage of wealth and disposable income, and thus we were insulated enough in the recession to continue our hobby efforts enough so that prices didnt deflate during that time.

Great take!

[MGsimba77]

3 hours ago, miraclemet said:

5 hours ago, Callaway29 said:

Oh I dunno...SC22 feels about right at the moment.... Or are you looking for a bronze book? Making me think man...how dare you..

 

3 hours ago, miraclemet said:

A SC22 has a CGC 3.0 as its census median, which would be priced around $2200. That book in the last 6 years has...only doubled in value. 

Now it has a lower census (1000 copies) vs those bronze books for obvious reasons. It also has fewer copies in the market, 19. But that's 1.9% of the census. The same market representation as IH181. 

So why hasnt SC22 increased like ASM129 (which means it should be around $3300) or IH181 (which means it should be around $4400)? It had a movie... but well... that certainly didn't help it. It came along 3 years after the start of the MCU, but a year before the Avengers movie really created the MCU. It came after The Dark Knight but before DKR. And 2 years before the advent of the DCU with Man of Steel. Point being the bar had not gotten so high yet, and yet GL was widely panned. 

I actually wonder if post 2011 movie fail if there was a market correction on it... Let's look. 

Basically there are two bumps that set new levels the first movie release set one new level (went from $500 to $1000) and then the announcement of a new movie as a part of the DCU put the book at the next level (from $1000 to $2000-ish)

So it's interesting when you look at IH181... it doesn't react to movie news. It just goes up... It doesnt bump and level. The two books react in the market completely differently. Which is the "right" way to react. You could argue that SC22 is actually MORE movie dependant than IH181 since it goes up without any seeming specific influence of the movies. 

SC22 is a good example of why IH181's rise is more impressive. This highlights just how much more demand there is for Wolverine comparatively, even with speculation buying! I agree that if there were "too many" copies then market forces would do what they always do in those cases.

I don't think Green Lantern gets all that many people out of their seats which is why the movie was just meh. Wolvie in MCU on other hand would be an entirely different story. But anyways if you're looking for a "safer" investment with less potential volatility you'd go for SC22 and of course Gil Kane definitely doesn't hurt! And it was the first appearance of the more recognizable Lantern with the black & green suit if I'm not mistaken. It's an awesome very early silver age book though! Maybe one of the few DC's I'd be interested in. 

 

[Lazyboy]

3 hours ago, miraclemet said:

3 hours ago, dupont2005 said:

Everything is worth exactly what it sells for at a well publicized auction with a wide reach of buyers interested in that exact item. CGC comics fit that criteria incredibly well. A mid categorized auction or an item listed for sale in the wrong venue could be low priced outliers, or a more obscure item with fewer interested parties who would have bid the item up more had they known or had access to the venue. Otherwise it is what it is

agreed, thats why I never understood the position that "Book X is not worth that" when there's market data to support it...

Because they aren't talking about a past sale, but a sustainable future.

What we're seeing now is lots of speculation that prices can only increase forever (because that has always been proven correct in the past ), even for characters that are already very well known and popular. Wolverine is eventually going to appear in his 27th movie? So what? He's not an unknown entity with a chance at gaining a following.

[dupont2005]

The price of anything could plummet tomorrow. I figure when the investors move on from comics to pogs or beanie babies or whatever the prices could drop a fair bit but for those of us who are in it for the long haul comics have rebound potential big time. Like vinyl, comics will likely become cool again years after they fall out of favor with the trend followers and speculators. Every purchase is a risk when it’s purchased for its investment potential. 

[LordRahl]

7 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

I can't help but think that Hulk 181 is now the beany baby of comic collecting, and the high prices are being paid by speculators.  

I paid $5 for my Hulk 181.  I have no desire to sell (and by extension CGC) because it is part of the New X-Men collection I put together in the late 70s and 80s.  I'm not an unusual demographic in today's collecting community, and when my demographic begins to sell our collections as we near retirement, it will impact the X-Men market profoundly.  I would not be seeking out that book today, as there are many cooler and much much much rarer books for the price.  

The bolded statement is some sort of board fallacy. I joined here in 2002 and going back that far, there has always been this notion that the collectors and dealers of the 60s/70s would flood the market with high grade books when they retire. Well it's been 17 years that this same thing keeps getting talked about. In those 17 years sure some nice collections have come out but nothing even remotely like the glut that people keep talking about. If you were a dealer or collector in the 60s/70s, you are now retired and likely have been for a while. Why haven't these treasure troves of high grade GA/SA books materialized to flood the market?