Why is NYX More valuable than... 1 1

[Hollywood1892]

New Mutants 98

New Mutants 87

Thanos 13 (maybe self explanatory)

The comic seems to be one of the most valuable modern comics on the market.

I'm just curious.

Thanks

[ned]

The two New Mutants books are more common.

 

[ADAMANTIUM]

2 hours ago, ned said:

The two New Mutants books are more common.

 

I'm thinking the new mutants are wayyy more common

But that was my answer as Well!

So put me down for +1 

[Brock]

FOMO

[miraclemet]

9 hours ago, Hollywood1892 said:

New Mutants 98

New Mutants 87

Thanos 13 (maybe self explanatory)

The comic seems to be one of the most valuable modern comics on the market.

I'm just curious.

Thanks

Value is impacted by demand and scarcity. While Deadpool may be a higher demand character than X-23, his 1st appearance is also more widely available. 

x-23 census: ~4200 copies graded, with 2700 of them at 9.6 or 9.8 (63% of census)

New Mutants 98: 16000+ copies graded with 7800 at 9.6 or higher (slightly under 50%) 

New Mutants 87:8700 copies graded with 3800 in 9.6 or higher (again under 50%)

Now X-23 is from 2004, while the New mutants are from 1990/1, so shouldn't the OLDER books be harder to find? Well the market in the 90s was different than the 2000s. In the 90s they were in the mass production phase, churning out huge volumes of copies, and then the bubble burst in the later 90s ans we saw production (and collecting) scale back in the 2000s, so in many cases in the early 2000s you see far smaller production numbers than in decades past. 

 

A 9.8 NM98 will run you $750, a similar NM87 only $450, while an NMX3 will cost you $900, so why more? Well as we said scarcity first and foremost.  There are at the moment only 17 NYX3s on the GPA market tracker, How many more NM98s? well Im not gonna count but its 3 and a half pages of listings (yes I know some are duplicates, but its the same for any book so it evens out). 3.5 pages is about 110 listings. So while NM98 has a little under 3x the census, it has  6.5x the marketplace availability. So not only are there fewer, they are offered to the market less frequently than NM98, which also influences "availability" and "scarcity" since you cant buy what isnt offered. 

Why is NYX3 scarcer? It may be simply because X-23 has not an appearance in the X-men movies (proper, not future-cast Logan) and there's some speculation of more of a cultural impact in the future. Deadpool's cultural impact is pretty set. 2 very successful movies and pretty wide recognition, even though he's been limited to his two own movies (not the wider X-verse) the expectation is that he's had most of his "exposure" now so his growth (through those means) is limited. 

Finally I'll say calling it "one of the most valuable comics on the modern market" ignores stuff like Walking Dead, BA12, Chew 1 (I know you said "one of")... and that's before even considering all the variants.. (which I dont even think of). 

 

Did that answer your question?

[valiantman]

"Supply and demand determine value" is easy to say, and it's the right answer ...but... I like putting actual numbers to those concepts. 

 

SUPPLY (CGC 9.8 universal counts):

New Mutants #87 = 1,454 

New Mutants #98 = 2,759

Thanos #13 = 381

NYX #3 = 1,505

 

VALUE (CGC 9.8 universal sales average):

New Mutants #87 = $425

New Mutants #98 = $750

Thanos #13 = $280

NYX #3 = $915

 

DEMAND (supply times value):

New Mutants #87 = 1,454 x $425 = $617,950

New Mutants #98 = 2,759 x $750 = $2,069,250

Thanos #13 = 381 x $280 = $106,680

NYX #3 = 1,505 x $915 = $1,377,075

 

So, NYX #3 is basically halfway between New Mutants #87 and New Mutants #98 in DEMAND (as defined above).  The individual prices for each copy are less important, because the supplies are different.  Put the two together (SUPPLY x VALUE) and you get something (DEMAND) that's possible to compare across books.  

[valiantman]

@miraclemet and I were posting the same thing at the same time without knowing about the other. I guess we'll have to share the Nobel Prize for Slabonomics. 

[Second Blight]

TnA will sell anything.

[bababooey]

24 minutes ago, valiantman said:

"Supply and demand determine value" is easy to say, and it's the right answer ...but... I like putting actual numbers to those concepts. 

 

SUPPLY (CGC 9.8 universal counts):

New Mutants #87 = 1,454 

New Mutants #98 = 2,759

Thanos #13 = 381

NYX #3 = 1,505

 

VALUE (CGC 9.8 universal sales average):

New Mutants #87 = $425

New Mutants #98 = $750

Thanos #13 = $280

NYX #3 = $915

 

DEMAND (supply times value):

New Mutants #87 = 1,454 x $425 = $617,950

New Mutants #98 = 2,759 x $750 = $2,069,250

Thanos #13 = 381 x $280 = $106,680

NYX #3 = 1,505 x $915 = $1,377,075

 

So, NYX #3 is basically halfway between New Mutants #87 and New Mutants #98 in DEMAND (as defined above).  The individual prices for each copy are less important, because the supplies are different.  Put the two together (SUPPLY x VALUE) and you get something (DEMAND) that's possible to compare across books.  

[miraclemet]

56 minutes ago, valiantman said:

@miraclemet and I were posting the same thing at the same time without knowing about the other. I guess we'll have to share the Nobel Prize for Slabonomics. 

Yep! Great minds think alike, and apparently so do we... 

I've just started to factor in "market availability" to this thinking because I think that also has some influence on prices. Just trying to find a way to influence the difference between there being 1000 copies of a book and 990 being in collections rarely for sale and there being 1000 copies of another book and 100 of them are for sale at any time. 

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

1 hour ago, miraclemet said:

Deadpool's cultural impact is pretty set. 2 very successful movies and pretty wide recognition, even though he's been limited to his two own movies (not the wider X-verse…

We're all just going to pretend that first Wolverine movie didn't exist, right? I'm okay with that.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

2 hours ago, miraclemet said:

Value is impacted by demand and scarcity. While Deadpool may be a higher demand character than X-23, his 1st appearance is also more widely available. 

x-23 census: ~4200 copies graded, with 2700 of them at 9.6 or 9.8 (63% of census)

New Mutants 98: 16000+ copies graded with 7800 at 9.6 or higher (slightly under 50%) 

New Mutants 87:8700 copies graded with 3800 in 9.6 or higher (again under 50%)

Now X-23 is from 2004, while the New mutants are from 1990/1, so shouldn't the OLDER books be harder to find? Well the market in the 90s was different than the 2000s. In the 90s they were in the mass production phase, churning out huge volumes of copies, and then the bubble burst in the later 90s ans we saw production (and collecting) scale back in the 2000s, so in many cases in the early 2000s you see far smaller production numbers than in decades past. 

 

A 9.8 NM98 will run you $750, a similar NM87 only $450, while an NMX3 will cost you $900, so why more? Well as we said scarcity first and foremost.  There are at the moment only 17 NYX3s on the GPA market tracker, How many more NM98s? well Im not gonna count but its 3 and a half pages of listings (yes I know some are duplicates, but its the same for any book so it evens out). 3.5 pages is about 110 listings. So while NM98 has a little under 3x the census, it has  6.5x the marketplace availability. So not only are there fewer, they are offered to the market less frequently than NM98, which also influences "availability" and "scarcity" since you cant buy what isnt offered. 

Why is NYX3 scarcer? It may be simply because X-23 has not an appearance in the X-men movies (proper, not future-cast Logan) and there's some speculation of more of a cultural impact in the future. Deadpool's cultural impact is pretty set. 2 very successful movies and pretty wide recognition, even though he's been limited to his two own movies (not the wider X-verse) the expectation is that he's had most of his "exposure" now so his growth (through those means) is limited. 

Finally I'll say calling it "one of the most valuable comics on the modern market" ignores stuff like Walking Dead, BA12, Chew 1 (I know you said "one of")... and that's before even considering all the variants.. (which I dont even think of). 

 

Did that answer your question?

Getting a little more specific about available copies, let's say we have a run of Book X that has important events/first appearances in each issue. For the sake of argument, let's say each of these issues is equally desirable. Issue 123 has 50,000 copies out there in the market, issue 124 has 55,000, and issue 125 has 60,000 copies. That wouldn't seem to be a huge difference in availability. But let's say there are 45,000 hardcore collectors of Book X. Most of those, say 40,000, pre-order every month. When 123 drops, news of the awesomeness is immediate, and flippers go out and grab whatever they can find for that issue, and each of the two following.

What we have then is 5000 collectors looking to find copies of these three books. Percentage-wise the print run difference isn't huge, but the copies of people willing to let them go is pretty significant. 10,000 copies of 123, 15,000 of 124, and 20,000 of 125.

There were so many books printed in the 90s that even after you account for all of the books in the hands of collectors that want them for their collections, there are still plenty to go around. I had 8 copies of New Mutants 98. I've sold one, but still have the other 7 (5 9.8s, a 9.6, and one raw). Even if I was set on holding one for my personal collection forever, I still have some available to sell. Even though X-23 is less popular, a huge percentage of her first appearance are in the hands of people that want the book just to have the book, not because of the resale value. That leaves a ton of people who want the book and not enough out there to fill, the demand.

We need a collecting term for what's available. The closest thing I could think of in investment terms (since market cap and such were proposed as discussion points) is the float. But of course it's tough to determine what number of hardcore collectors there are. 

[FineCollector]

Look at the cover of #1: pastel pink, with a teenager holding a pacifier in her mouth.  Everyone looked at that in Previews and said, "yeah, no thanks."  That's why.  If she first appeared in Uncanny X-Men, it'd be a $40 book, tops.

[Hollywood1892]

Thanks guys.

Some pretty in depth responses.

[ygogolak]

2 hours ago, FineCollector said:

Look at the cover of #1: pastel pink, with a teenager holding a pacifier in her mouth.  Everyone looked at that in Previews and said, "yeah, no thanks."  That's why.  If she first appeared in Uncanny X-Men, it'd be a $40 book, tops.

It was well known that #3 was going to be the first issue of the daughter of Wolverine. Had less to do with the cover of the first issue and a lot more to do with when it was released. Also, it was also not usurped by a surprise "cameo" in some other issue with is a common occur ace these days. It's the definitive first appearance.

Edited March 14, 2019 by ygogolak

[Hollywood1892]

5 hours ago, miraclemet said:

Value is impacted by demand and scarcity. While Deadpool may be a higher demand character than X-23, his 1st appearance is also more widely available. 

x-23 census: ~4200 copies graded, with 2700 of them at 9.6 or 9.8 (63% of census)

New Mutants 98: 16000+ copies graded with 7800 at 9.6 or higher (slightly under 50%) 

New Mutants 87:8700 copies graded with 3800 in 9.6 or higher (again under 50%)

Now X-23 is from 2004, while the New mutants are from 1990/1, so shouldn't the OLDER books be harder to find? Well the market in the 90s was different than the 2000s. In the 90s they were in the mass production phase, churning out huge volumes of copies, and then the bubble burst in the later 90s ans we saw production (and collecting) scale back in the 2000s, so in many cases in the early 2000s you see far smaller production numbers than in decades past. 

 

A 9.8 NM98 will run you $750, a similar NM87 only $450, while an NMX3 will cost you $900, so why more? Well as we said scarcity first and foremost.  There are at the moment only 17 NYX3s on the GPA market tracker, How many more NM98s? well Im not gonna count but its 3 and a half pages of listings (yes I know some are duplicates, but its the same for any book so it evens out). 3.5 pages is about 110 listings. So while NM98 has a little under 3x the census, it has  6.5x the marketplace availability. So not only are there fewer, they are offered to the market less frequently than NM98, which also influences "availability" and "scarcity" since you cant buy what isnt offered. 

Why is NYX3 scarcer? It may be simply because X-23 has not an appearance in the X-men movies (proper, not future-cast Logan) and there's some speculation of more of a cultural impact in the future. Deadpool's cultural impact is pretty set. 2 very successful movies and pretty wide recognition, even though he's been limited to his two own movies (not the wider X-verse) the expectation is that he's had most of his "exposure" now so his growth (through those means) is limited. 

Finally I'll say calling it "one of the most valuable comics on the modern market" ignores stuff like Walking Dead, BA12, Chew 1 (I know you said "one of")... and that's before even considering all the variants.. (which I dont even think of). 

 

Did that answer your question?

Yes of course WD, ba 12 fa Harley Quinn and ASM 300

[valiantman]

17 hours ago, miraclemet said:

18 hours ago, valiantman said:

@miraclemet and I were posting the same thing at the same time without knowing about the other. I guess we'll have to share the Nobel Prize for Slabonomics. 

Yep! Great minds think alike, and apparently so do we... 

I've just started to factor in "market availability" to this thinking because I think that also has some influence on prices. Just trying to find a way to influence the difference between there being 1000 copies of a book and 990 being in collections rarely for sale and there being 1000 copies of another book and 100 of them are for sale at any time. 

Good point, and a nice distinction between scenarios.

Market availability definitely has an impact on "the next sale"... whenever that may occur.  I believe that we've had enough time for the market to "get comfortable" with the availability of books, some rarely sold, some always available, etc., so I think that factor is already considered when potential buyers decide what they're willing to pay.  It is the unexpected change in market availability that causes some chaos in the market. 

For an example of both the up and the down, CGC 9.8 Preacher #1 had several years of consistent sales with the same market availability. Then the television series was announced/released and the standard number of available copies was too low, causing the price to jump 10 times the old (pre-show) values.  Then many, many more copies were graded, causing that price to fall to about 1/4th of the high average... but the CGC census became about 4 times what it used to be... so the prices fell to about 1/4th with 4 times the number of copies.  I'd say the current CGC 9.8 Preacher #1 market has (effectively) factored the (new) availability into the system, since multiplying anything by 1/4th and then multiplying that by 4 would balance nicely.

[miraclemet]

49 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Good point, and a nice distinction between scenarios.

Market availability definitely has an impact on "the next sale"... whenever that may occur.  I believe that we've had enough time for the market to "get comfortable" with the availability of books, some rarely sold, some always available, etc., so I think that factor is already considered when potential buyers decide what they're willing to pay.  It is the unexpected change in market availability that causes some chaos in the market. 

For an example of both the up and the down, CGC 9.8 Preacher #1 had several years of consistent sales with the same market availability. Then the television series was announced/released and the standard number of available copies was too low, causing the price to jump 10 times the old (pre-show) values.  Then many, many more copies were graded, causing that price to fall to about 1/4th of the high average... but the CGC census became about 4 times what it used to be... so the prices fell to about 1/4th with 4 times the number of copies.  I'd say the current CGC 9.8 Preacher #1 market has (effectively) factored the (new) availability into the system, since multiplying anything by 1/4th and then multiplying that by 4 would balance nicely.

Agreed on the raw thoughts. It's the single biggest variable that can influence the prices (well other than movie news). There are books that "pop" and increase in price that were already likely graded, and then there are the books that pop and they (largely) existed raw in long box collections and its hard to know how many will flood the market at at what price tips the collector to go hunting for the book in their collection (or their store's long boxes) for subbing and selling. 

And your scenario, where interest out weighs market availability leading to a temporary price spike (sometimes influenced by people just popping on BINs that were previously "inflated" but due to increased interest suddenly become within range of market).  Similar thing happens with movie speculation, and the question of when people are holding (in between movie news and movie release) and when they drop the book on the market, there's often a little price dip just before the movie release when everyone starts to unload their copies...

[exitmusicblue]

I find it cool that prices have actually gone up since the movie, iirc.  Speaks to the character's popularity.

[Hollywood1892]

41 minutes ago, exitmusicblue said:

I find it cool that prices have actually gone up since the movie, iirc.  Speaks to the character's popularity.

What was nm 98 value pre Deadpool movies. Beacause I can't see origins helping out its cause.