Amazing Spider-Man #13
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I had my copy of Amazing Spider-Man #13 graded last fall, and it came back with a 7.0 grade with Off-White to White pages.

I have been following the current prices for which this issue has been sold.

GP Analysis - $2640, Go Collect value - $2250, Ebay - $2050 and $2075, ComicLink - $2000. I'm sure there are other sales, also.

Obviously, this run up is due to the fact that Mysterio is scheduled to appear in this summer's blockbuster, Spider-Man: Far From Home.

If I was able to sell this issue for around $2500, I could possible get an X-Men #1 in CGC 1.8 or a Tales of Suspense #39 in CGC 1.5 or a Journey Into Mystery #83 in CGC 1.8.

Based on your experience, what happens to the price of an issue after a run-up prior to a movie? Does the price stay at that level, or does it drop considerably in the next 1 - 2 years? I have no experience with this, but my intuition tells me that the price of this issue will drop after a certain amount of time. Probably not too the level prior to the announcement of the movie, but lower than its peak value right before the movie is released.

It seems to me that it might be wise to sell ASM #13 while it is super-hot, and then use this money to buy a low grade copy of a Marvel super-key issue.

So, I have two questions. First, can you tell me of your experiences about the prices of issues prior to and after the release of a movie? Second, does my plan from above sound sane or insane?

Thank you so much for your time and consideration!

 

Joe Ankenbauer

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Sounds plenty sane to me!

First villain Spideys might hold value better than most movie spec books, tho. If you’re a ASM run collector, I think I’d find another way to fund raise.

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If the movie that the villain appears in is good the issue will generally hold its value.  If the movie is not good then the book tends to drop and gets a little harder to move since the "buzz" is off the book.  Nobody knows exactly what the top price will be.  If you have made a nice profit in the book be happy that the movie got announced in the first place and move on.

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Even if the movie does well and the character is well received, the natural cycle of speculation should result in a short-term dip, as people who bought the book to flip it will attempt to cash out and move on to the next thing.

There's enough of a sample of past movie books that it should be possible for someone to do a little bit of analysis on this.  Sample sizes of publicly available sales data are a bit too small to draw definitive conclusions, but my sense is that there's usually a period of scarcity when a rumor first hits, as savvy collectors hold for the best possible timing to sell, and then you see a bunch of them go on sale.  (My feeling is that this is happening right now for Tales of Suspense #52, for example.)

The question then is exactly what that "best timing" is.  Since I don't flip books, I really don't know if it's before or after the opening night of the movie.  But for what it's worth, my suspicion is that everything depends on what the current movie tells you about the future plans for that character.  If Mysterio is just going to be a one-and-done adversary for Spider-Man, never seen again, that won't have nearly as strong an impact as a villain like Loki who became an instant centerpiece not only for the Thor franchise but for the entire MCU.  And if the character is a hero who's slated for his or her own franchise, like Black Panther, that's a home run.

So, to come back to your question, I haven't seen any books "drop considerably" after the movie hype.  Even if now were the "optimal" time to sell, you're not going to be regretting it deeply if you just hold onto the book.  It all comes down to whether you really enjoy owning this book or if you'd get more enjoyment out of owning some other book.

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4 hours ago, blazingbob said:

If the movie that the villain appears in is good the issue will generally hold its value.  If the movie is not good then the book tends to drop and gets a little harder to move since the "buzz" is off the book.  Nobody knows exactly what the top price will be.  If you have made a nice profit in the book be happy that the movie got announced in the first place and move on.

This issue has been in my collection for 35+ years. I have no idea of when or where I got it. I have no doubt that the profit I have made on it is immense.

Do I want a copy of ASM #13 in my collection? Absolutely. Will I get more enjoyment from it if it's graded CGC 7.0 instead of CGC 3.5? Probably not. Yes, it's good to have a nice copy, but to be honest, my books sit a storage area 99.9% of the time. It just seems to me that issues such as X-Men #1, Tales of Suspense #39, or Journey into Mystery #83 will tend to appreciate more over time that ASM #13 will. Of course, I have nothing to base this on other than my opinion. That's why I stopped by and asked for other people's opinion.

Thanks for your responses.

 

Joe

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I decided to do some quick research on this.

My first example will be FF #52, the first appearance of the Black Panther.  I chose to look an issue in CGC 5.5. In 2017, before the movie premiered, the highest price paid for a GCG 5.5 was $495. In 2018, the year the movie came out, the highest price paid for a CGC 5.5 was $1175. So far, in 2019, the year after the movie came out, the highest price paid for a CGC 5.5 was $749. This was a decline of approximately 36% from 2018 to 2019. For a much higher grade book, CGC 7.5, the results were 2017 - $950, 2018 - $1895, and 2019 (so far) - $1700, a decline of approximately 10%.

My second example will be Tales to Astonish #44, the first appearance of the Wasp. I chose to look at an issue in CGC 4.0 In 2017, before the movie came out, the highest price paid for a 4.0 was $440. In 2018, the year the movie came out, the highest price paid for a CGC 4.0 was $665. So far, in 2019, the highest price paid for a CGC 4.0 was $550. This was a decline of approximately 17% from 2018 to 2019. For a much higher grade book, CGC 6.0, the results were 2017 - $1150, 2018 - $1300, and 2019 (so far) - $1140, a decline of approximately 12%.

Why did I choose the grades I did? Because that's the type of grade that I can afford. It seems to me that I have basically convinced myself.

 

Joe

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Consolidating your collection to fund a bigger "key" is definitely a normal "sane" thing to do.   You've already made a profit and have no real interest in owning that particular book anyway so it's a definite sell IMO.    

 

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2 minutes ago, Beardown said:

Consolidating your collection to fund a bigger "key" is definitely a normal "sane" thing to do.   You've already made a profit and have no real interest in owning that particular book anyway so it's a definite sell IMO.    

 

No, I DO want to have a copy of ASM #13 in my collection. I just don't need a 7.0.

 

Joe

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It sounds like you've definitely figured out what to do.  Good luck with the sale and let us know what you decide to pick up with the proceeds!

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One of the things I regret is letting go of some of the books I owned 20+ years ago. Not only are some of them impossible to find now, but the price to replace them has become ridiculous. Please keep that in mind whenever you sell one of your books...

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I would definitely go for a bigger key and downgrade the 7.0 after the movie has come and gone. If I didn't have xmen 1 I would do anything basically with the rest of my collection to make sure I had one.  Not sure which of these major keys you want the most....that's up to you but I would do it. Evolve your collection until it's exactly what you want and will be happy with.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, The Lions Den said:

One of the things I regret is letting go of some of the books I owned 20+ years ago. Not only are some of them impossible to find now, but the price to replace them has become ridiculous. Please keep that in mind whenever you sell one of your books...

I understand this sentiment. I had a run of The Brave and the Bold, issues #25 - #200. I sold this whole lot when we were going through some tough times financially. I have replaced nine issues (BatB #28, #30, #34 - #36, #42 - #44, and #54, spending a pretty penny on a CGC 4.5 BatB #28. My original #28 was in BAD shape. I'm still on the look-out for an affordable #29.

 

Joe

Edited by Joe Ankenbauer
Typo

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1 hour ago, The Lions Den said:

One of the things I regret is letting go of some of the books I owned 20+ years ago. Not only are some of them impossible to find now, but the price to replace them has become ridiculous. Please keep that in mind whenever you sell one of your books...

We have all done it. 

I've owned every Marvel SA key at least once and wish I kept them all from a monetary perspective. However, several of them went to good stewards back then - collectors who were as thrilled to add them to their collection as I initially was. There's a value to that for me as well as reclaiming my investment (with some profit if lucky). That allowed me to explore new rabbit holes of our hobby.

 

 

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Everybody, thank you for all your input. Here's what I have decided to do.

1) I am going to hold onto ASM #13 until mid-June. I will sell it then, reap the profits, and try to buy some issues on my want list (my priorities will be GS X-Men #1, Green Lantern #1, or a replacement for my poor copy of ASM #2). In 2020 or 2021, I will replace my issue with a lower-grade copy (3.5 - 4.5).

2) I am going to purchase a 3.0 copy of Journey into Mystery #83 for a price in the mid-4000s. I am getting this from Greg, aka @Omaha-CGC-Comicswho also sold me my Tales to Astonish #27. I have an inherited IRA with over $100K in it. I can get the money from there without putting us into the poor house.

I know I didn't follow anyone's particular advice, but I did value of all the opinions. Thanks so much!

 

Joe

 

PS - If you ever see a sale from @Omaha-CGC-Comics, make sure to consider it carefully. I've bought two key books from Greg, and it has been a pleasure to deal with him.

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