Speculation fails - what happens to those who... remain! 2 2

[FineCollector]

After watching a certain movie this weekend, I wondered about books that spiked in price due to rumors, but turned out not to be true.  I'd like to better understand the buyers who set market prices on comics that spike drastically (and fall).  Do any of you have anecdotes about collectors who chase the top market prices, and get burned when the books cool?  Do they take their licks and keep buying back in like bad poker players, do they see the light and start buying more sensibly, or do they just quit the hobby entirely?

I'm assuming that despite us all having speculation failures in the past, the current market is being driven by novice collectors with dollar signs in their eyes, who dont have as many years invested in the hobby as we do.  I'm also assuming that most people buying at top prices have limited funds, that is, they maybe living in mom's basement, but high prices arent being driven by rich oil barons and princes who have unlimited funds to buy whatever they want.  Feel free to correct those assumptions if you see fit.

[mec3437]

I lost my butt on X-Factor books when the Apocalypse movie wasn't very good.  That's the one of the few times that I played the speculation game.  I took my lumps and moved on.  The only book that I'm really looking at right now is Thor #134.  Not sure if it will go up, but it might.  I have a few copies and they were cheap, so I'm not fretting it.  

[theCapraAegagrus]

7 minutes ago, FineCollector said:

...do they just quit the hobby entirely?

Hopefully this.

As we know with Gabe, and a couple of newer board members, this is sadly not always the case.

Speculation buying is one of the dumber things I have witnessed in my life. The stock market exists already for this type of "investor".

[ygogolak]

Did someone say Bitcoinswami?

[NoMan]

Occasionally I think of books to speculate on, but I'm too apathetic to actually get them (Still can't find the energy to get that Rom #1. The rubber can't seem to meet the road as they say). Not sure what that makes me. 

Edited April 29, 2019 by NoMan

[1Cool]

43 minutes ago, FineCollector said:

After watching a certain movie this weekend, I wondered about books that spiked in price due to rumors, but turned out not to be true.  I'd like to better understand the buyers who set market prices on comics that spike drastically (and fall).  Do any of you have anecdotes about collectors who chase the top market prices, and get burned when the books cool?  Do they take their licks and keep buying back in like bad poker players, do they see the light and start buying more sensibly, or do they just quit the hobby entirely?

I'm assuming that despite us all having speculation failures in the past, the current market is being driven by novice collectors with dollar signs in their eyes, who dont have as many years invested in the hobby as we do.  I'm also assuming that most people buying at top prices have limited funds, that is, they maybe living in mom's basement, but high prices arent being driven by rich oil barons and princes who have unlimited funds to buy whatever they want.  Feel free to correct those assumptions if you see fit.

I'm not sure it's collectors buying books at high prices - I'm not really sure who is buying all these book when they jump up in prices.  Thankfully if you ares peculating you are buying books at low prices so even if they don't do well you are not losing a ton of cash.  If you are talking about buying a book like Preacher 1 CGC 9.8 for $1,000 then your not really speculating you are jumping on at the top of a wave or at least at high prices since it's hard to gauge a wave.  Do these people get pissed and take their money to other venues?  I'd think so but there seems to be people who will buy the book of the week for big money so there appears to be an unlimited pool of those guys.

[oakman29]

12 hours ago, TwoPiece said:

Hopefully this.

As we know with Gabe, and a couple of newer board members, this is sadly not always the case.

Speculation buying is one of the dumber things I have witnessed in my life. The stock market exists already for this type of "investor".

Agreed. 

[01TheDude]

I don't see why we need to be upset with speculators getting involved with collecting. It might increase the price of some book you are trying to get-- sure -- but it can also raise the value of many books you already own. Plus bringing more people into the hobby should be encouraged-- even if you do not like the way they are involved. You never know how their interests might morph over time. More money and people getting into the hobby is a good thing imo. Now if they stick around after getting burned is sort of up in the air. Clearly some jump onto a hot book well past the ideal entry point or even at the top of the market (BCS- bitcoinswami). Others seem to be doing some credible investigation into the hobby and what makes a book more collectible than others. I imagine there are plenty of lurkers to this website who are reading, learning, and possibly even "investing" based on some insight found on these forums. They might even get interested in certain artists or story lines. Those are the type of new entrants to the hobby we should never discourage. The ones who come in here and act like punks-- those can be a little annoying or fun to belittle when they try to tell some dealer who has been involved for over 40 years what is going to be a hot book. Seems like those BCS -types are in the minority and they will flame out or wise up at some point.

[thunsicker]

10 minutes ago, 01TheDude said:

It might increase the price of some book you are trying to get-- sure -- but it can also raise the value of many books you already own. 

But what if I'm not interested in selling any of my collection and want to actually add to it?  How are speculators helping me? 

 

EDIT:  That is to say, as a collector and not an investor I see no upside to the rapid growth of comic book values.  More collectors?  Sure lets add people who care about the stories and want to own the issues, but people who are getting in for a quick buck to flip comics?  They aren't helping me any.

 

EDIT 2:  I even know of people who love comics who are getting out with the rapid rise in values, so it's actually a negative for other reasons as well.

Edited April 30, 2019 by thunsicker

[01TheDude]

9 minutes ago, thunsicker said:

But what if I'm not interested in selling any of my collection and want to actually add to it?  How are speculators helping me?

They aren't in the respect of buying a book you need for your collection today but I would rather have more people interested in the hobby than one that is slowly dying.

Did you stop reading after that one sentence? I explained my reasoning.

I don't recall referring to selling anything-- just that your overall collection value is going up in value. I do not know how it might be impacting more modern books or variants-- I don't collect that stuff. But for some silver age book that has been around over 40 years, if you haven't gotten to it by now it is hard to put the blame on some speculator that you have to pay more for it. They missed the boat-- the blame is on the collector. There are many books I wish I had bought before they took off but did not. Those are the breaks.

Edited April 30, 2019 by 01TheDude

[theCapraAegagrus]

I don't want to discourage anyone from entering the hobby, but...

When n00bs come around asking, "should I buy this, should I buy that", and are "hesitant to open and read comics", then what are they actually doing? They're not, IMO, positively contributing to the actual hobby.

I am 100% open to any person who collects comic books because they enjoy/love comic books. I am 100% open to people using the medium of comic books to make a living if they're respectable and good at it. I am not okay with people who have no idea what they're doing, trying to flip books on other people's info, and just decaying the hobby as a whole.

Not every person appearing to enter the "hobby" is honest or even truly interested. It's a shame. Luckily, most people are, though.

[01TheDude]

Just now, TwoPiece said:

I don't want to discourage anyone from entering the hobby, but...

When n00bs come around asking, "should I buy this, should I buy that", and are "hesitant to open and read comics", then what are they actually doing? They're not, IMO, positively contributing to the actual hobby.

I am 100% open to any person who collects comic books because they enjoy/love comic books. I am 100% open to people using the medium of comic books to make a living if they're respectable and good at it. I am not okay with people who have no idea what they're doing, trying to flip books on other people's info, and just decaying the hobby as a whole.

Not every person appearing to enter the "hobby" is honest or even truly interested. It's a shame. Luckily, most people are, though.

That seems like a variant of the old "collect what you like" but in terms of enjoy your books how you like. Think about it in terms of people who are condition snobs-- only collecting extremely high grade copies. They might look down on those of us who aren't so condition averse and find a decent mid grade book as perfectly fine for their collection. Both methods are acceptable - it is the choice of the collector how they collect, what they collect, and what they do with their collection. I understand not liking it when new people mention value and focus on value, throwing around terms like "I'm a comic book investor"-- as it sort of boils the hobby down to value only. Are we doing the same when we talk about drek books but in reverse?

I just put them in the same light that we have sub category of "collectors" (and in this case, the term is pretty loosely used, I agree) just as I would say something like original art or signature series, which I only mention because they are not something I am personally into but I understand why some are so focused. Is it any different to say some one likes to collect from an investor/speculator view point versus say a run collector? It is what they enjoy - I say let them run with it. The longer they are involved in some aspect of the hobby, the bigger the chance that they might morph into other forms of collectors.

[theCapraAegagrus]

1 minute ago, 01TheDude said:

That seems like a variant of the old "collect what you like" but in terms of enjoy your books how you like. Think about it in terms of people who are condition snobs-- only collecting extremely high grade copies. They might look down on those of us who aren't so condition averse and find a decent mid grade book as perfectly fine for their collection. Both methods are acceptable - it is the choice of the collector how they collect, what they collect, and what they do with their collection. I understand not liking it when new people mention value and focus on value, throwing around terms like "I'm a comic book investor"-- as it sort of boils the hobby down to value only. Are we doing the same when we talk about drek books but in reverse?

I just put them in the same light that we have sub category of "collectors" (and in this case, the term is pretty loosely used, I agree) just as I would say something like original art or signature series, which I only mention because they are not something I am personally into but I understand why some are so focused. Is it any different to say some one likes to collect from an investor/speculator view point versus say a run collector? It is what they enjoy - I say let them run with it. The longer they are involved in some aspect of the hobby, the bigger the chance that they might morph into other forms of collectors.

You may be misunderstanding what I'm trying to convey. IMO there's nothing wrong with being a "condition snob". I don't see the point in buying a comic for "investment" purposes, though, unless it's your job. There are too many people that wanna spend their $150 allowance on the "next spec book". If you're not reading comic, and it's not your job to flip 'em, then what are you doing..?

I collect graded comics, raw single issues, tons of hardcovers and TPBs and slipcase sets, etc because I love comics. Ever since I've been here I have definitely subscribed to "buy the book, not the label". I don't see the point in owning ASM 129 if you don't care about the cover or the story. You might make $50 in a year? The Endgame should be more pure than that.

[01TheDude]

9 minutes ago, TwoPiece said:

You may be misunderstanding what I'm trying to convey. IMO there's nothing wrong with being a "condition snob". I don't see the point in buying a comic for "investment" purposes, though, unless it's your job. There are too many people that wanna spend their $150 allowance on the "next spec book". If you're not reading comic, and it's not your job to flip 'em, then what are you doing..?

I collect graded comics, raw single issues, tons of hardcovers and TPBs and slipcase sets, etc because I love comics. Ever since I've been here I have definitely subscribed to "buy the book, not the label". I don't see the point in owning ASM 129 if you don't care about the cover or the story. You might make $50 in a year? The Endgame should be more pure than that.

That still sounds to me like you are assuming the way you collect is right and the way they "collect" is wrong. I'm not a fan of the speculator by any means-- but it is a without a doubt as valid a method of collecting books as any other. Their money, their choice how to spend it and enjoy it. Even if we don't see what they are doing as enjoyable-- clearly if they keep doing it there must be some sort of enjoyment. The may not understand a lick about the hobby, care about the books beyond the financial prospects, or ever even open them to read-- but that is their decision ultimately. What they do with those books will not change how experienced collectors interact with them. We do know how to grade, what is important in story lines etc-- we are the underlying reason those books might increase in value. I would suspect that over time-- the spec/investor type collectors are either going to start understanding all those aspects of the hobby or end up losing a lot of money foolishly, perhaps leaving the hobby at some point. The ones who remain-- I believe the topic of this thread -- will be the ones who reflect on what they were doing and maybe, just maybe become more knowledgeable and avid collectors for reasons beyond the pure investment pursuit.

Again-- we don't have to like it but they are both part of this hobby as well as perfectly capable of determining how they "collect".

[theCapraAegagrus]

Just now, 01TheDude said:

That still sounds to me like you are assuming the way you collect is right and the way they "collect" is wrong. I'm not a fan of the speculator by any means-- but it is a without a doubt as valid a method of collecting books as any other. Their money, their choice how to spend it and enjoy it. Even if we don't see what they are doing as enjoyable-- clearly if they keep doing it there must be some sort of enjoyment. The may not understand a lick about the hobby, care about the books beyond the financial prospects, or ever even open them to read-- but that is their decision ultimately. What they do with those books will not change how experienced collectors interact with them. We do know how to grade, what is important in story lines etc-- we are the underlying reason those books might increase in value. I would suspect that over time-- the spec/investor type collectors are either going to start understanding all those aspects of the hobby or end up losing a lot of money foolishly, perhaps leaving the hobby at some point. The ones who remain-- I believe the topic of this thread -- will be the ones who reflect on what they were doing and maybe, just maybe become more knowledgeable and avid collectors for reasons beyond the pure investment pursuit.

Again-- we don't have to like it but they are both part of this hobby as well as perfectly capable of determining how they "collect".

I don't consider 'spec flipping' to be collecting. That's trading.

I consider hobby collectors to be people who have an interest in the medium being fetched after.

I think most people would agree. "Flippers" don't really positively contribute to the actual hobby of collecting. They just inflate prices which, consequently, will deflate enthusiasm by out-pricing people with lesser budgets.

[01TheDude]

10 minutes ago, TwoPiece said:

I don't consider 'spec flipping' to be collecting. That's trading.

I consider hobby collectors to be people who have an interest in the medium being fetched after.

I think most people would agree. "Flippers" don't really positively contribute to the actual hobby of collecting. They just inflate prices which, consequently, will deflate enthusiasm by out-pricing people with lesser budgets.

So take BCS for example-- have they SOLD a single comic yet? This so-called investor is just sitting on all those Carnage books (supposedly-- I have a strong feeling the whole thing is a troll based joke). Despite what they say-- are they not collecting items?

I guess we can just agree to disagree since you seem hell bent on ignoring anyone who flips books as not contributing positively to the hobby. I bet the dealers on this board would find that viewpoint hysterical. People buy books to flip all the time-- a form of investment - with the intention to buy other things for their collection. Many of those dealers find stuff through hard work and bring those items into the market place that would otherwise never see the light of day. Most of the books you see in the "bought a collection" type threads or the flea market.et al finds thread-- those are bargains people found mostly for flipping. Are they not collectors? Of course they are-- but the point is this need to ostracize self-professed comic investors as not being collectors is pointless.

Getting angry that more people and interest in comic books makes prices higher is not a valid reason to ignore them as part of the overall hobby. You might not like the way they operate but they are a part of this community regardless of your opinion or even theirs for that matter.

Edited April 30, 2019 by 01TheDude

[theCapraAegagrus]

6 minutes ago, 01TheDude said:

So take BCS for example-- have they SOLD a single comic yet? This so-called investor is just sitting on all those Carnage books (supposedly-- I have a strong feeling the whole thing is a troll based joke). Despite what they say-- are they not collecting items?

I guess we can just agree to disagree since you seem hell bent on ignoring anyone who flips books as not contributing positively to the hobby. I bet the dealers on this board would find that viewpoint hysterical. People buy books to flip all the time-- a form of investment - with the intention to buy other things for their collection. Many of those dealers find stuff through hard work and bring those items into the market place that would otherwise never see the light of day. Most of the books you see in the "bought a collection" type threads or the flea market.et al finds thread-- those are bargains people found mostly for flipping. Are they not collectors? Of course they are-- but the point is this need to ostracize self-professed comic investors as not being collectors is pointless.

Getting angry that more people and interest in comic books makes prices higher is not a valid reason to ignore them as part of the overall hobby. You might not like the way they operate but they are a part of this community regardless of your opinion or even theirs for that matter.

Manufactured rarity is not a positive service to the hobby. So, yeah, we'll have to agree to disagree because "I" am the one ignoring something.

Not sure where you're manufacturing this "anger" from. I don't have any emotional investment in this conversation. I simply know it's nothing good for anyone involved in the actual hobby of comic books.

Edited April 30, 2019 by TwoPiece

[01TheDude]

6 minutes ago, TwoPiece said:

Manufactured rarity is not a positive service to the hobby. So, yeah, we'll have to agree to disagree because "I" am the one ignoring something.

Not sure where you're manufacturing this "anger" from. I don't have any emotional investment in this conversation. I simply know it's nothing good for anyone involved in the actual hobby of comic books.

At what point did we talk about manufactured rarity? If this is about modern variant issues-- I have no idea about that stuff. Not in my focus.

As for your anger-- it was very apparent from your previous replies that you feel these comic investor type of hobby participants are upsetting you-- you have not said a single thing positive about them. What you write sounds like someone who is angry about it-- thus your instant replies to anything I respond with- even if you completely IGNORE my reasoning of why they are as much a part of this hobby as anyone else.

The only one ignoring anything seems to be you when it comes to replying/responding to anything I argued that you actually said -- most recently in regards to FLIPPERS -- or that people can collect however the hell they want to-- even if they only collect in order to sell at a profit. Who cares why they are in the hobby? We are not going to live forever and as the baby boomers and the gen X starts falling to the wayside-- the last of the people who bought from news stands more or less-- do you want no one to enter the hobby without satisfying your opinion of what makes a true collector as you stated "The Endgame should be more pure than that." Your opinion. You are entitled to it. But in the end-- you are simply telling us how you collect is the right way -- with the right motives -- and these other people are not and should be treated with disdain apparently.

[theCapraAegagrus]

9 minutes ago, 01TheDude said:

At what point did we talk about manufactured rarity? If this is about modern variant issues-- I have no idea about that stuff. Not in my focus.

As for your anger-- it was very apparent from your previous replies that you feel these comic investor type of hobby participants are upsetting you-- you have not said a single thing positive about them. What you write sounds like someone who is angry about it-- thus your instant replies to anything I respond with- even if you completely IGNORE my reasoning of why they are as much a part of this hobby as anyone else.

The only one ignoring anything seems to be you when it comes to replying/responding to anything I argued that you actually said -- most recently in regards to FLIPPERS -- or that people can collect however the hell they want to-- even if they only collect in order to sell at a profit. Who cares why they are in the hobby? We are not going to live forever and as the baby boomers and the gen X starts falling to the wayside-- the last of the people who bought from news stands more or less-- do you want no one to enter the hobby without satisfying your opinion of what makes a true collector as you stated "The Endgame should be more pure than that." Your opinion. You are entitled to it. But in the end-- you are simply telling us how you collect is the right way -- with the right motives -- and these other people are not and should be treated with disdain apparently.

Manufactured rarity = "collecting" 100 issues waiting for the price to hike. Price hikes can be caused by such manufactured rarity by hoarders.

I also implied literally no emotions in any of my posts. It doesn't make me "angry" that amateur hour exists in comic collecting. I simply no it's doing no one any favors. Life would be better off without 'em. I don't get angry at spiders, and I definitely dislike them, because they don't belong in my home.

I thought we were agreeing to disagree, no? That hasn't changed on my end. Clearly you're inferring a lot of things that are simply not being intentionally communicated by me. It's not getting through and I thought we had already come to this conclusion.

[Lazyboy]

1 hour ago, 01TheDude said:

I would rather have more people interested in the hobby

So would I, but speculators are interested in money, not the hobby. When the money is no longer there, they leave, taking all the "value" they "added" to your collection with them. Of course, they don't refund any excessive prices you paid while they were involved.