Speculation fails - what happens to those who... remain! 2 2

[01TheDude]

1 minute ago, Lazyboy said:

So would I, but speculators are interested in money, not the hobby. When the money is no longer there, they leave, taking all the "value" they "added" to your collection with them. Of course, they don't refund any excessive prices you paid while they were involved.

That is sort of why I am in a holding pattern on buying for a while-- the market prices, especially on ebay are not realistic. I still hunt for value items but it has been pretty overpriced for the past year or so. The bargains are few and far between. Also I have plenty to read as it is so a break was needed. People trying to ask for more than what I think a book is worth will not be getting my business- that is how I avoid excessive pricing.

[01TheDude]

10 minutes ago, TwoPiece said:

Manufactured rarity = "collecting" 100 issues waiting for the price to hike. Price hikes can be caused by such manufactured rarity by hoarders.

I also implied literally no emotions in any of my posts. It doesn't make me "angry" that amateur hour exists in comic collecting. I simply no it's doing no one any favors. Life would be better off without 'em. I don't get angry at spiders, and I definitely dislike them, because they don't belong in my home.

I thought we were agreeing to disagree, no? That hasn't changed on my end. Clearly you're inferring a lot of things that are simply not being intentionally communicated by me. It's not getting through and I thought we had already come to this conclusion.

I can't help myself-- you keep mentioning things that people on this board who you would consider vested in comic collecting do all the time. Some of them have had those 100 issues for decades. I thought this thread was about the new entrants to the market who buy books at market prices hoping to turn a profit at that point. The majority of people who flip comics from this board hunt for collections, get them at good value and make decent money when they sell high demand stuff. Nothing wrong with that. Guys like BCS (Bitcoinswami in case you forgot) -- the so called COMIC INVESTORS -- are fools who buy items at those market prices expecting things will continue to go up in value. So the people making any money are the old guard-- the old collectors in the hobby for a long time and who understand the price of books. And if these folks who speculated in a book leave the hobby and sell their stuff, you can almost bet it will not be very profitable if not a losing situation.

If anything-- they seem to be putting money into the hobby-- however foolishly -- thinking they can outsmart people with much more experience than them. Please keep buying from us is my take. Stick around-- buy some more stuff.

[theCapraAegagrus]

4 minutes ago, 01TheDude said:

I can't help myself-- you keep mentioning things that people on this board who you would consider vested in comic collecting do all the time. Some of them have had those 100 issues for decades. I thought this thread was about the new entrants to the market who buy books at market prices hoping to turn a profit at that point. The majority of people who flip comics from this board hunt for collections, get them at good value and make decent money when they sell high demand stuff. Nothing wrong with that. Guys like BCS (Bitcoinswami in case you forgot) -- the so called COMIC INVESTORS -- are fools who buy items at those market prices expecting things will continue to go up in value. So the people making any money are the old guard-- the old collectors in the hobby for a long time and who understand the price of books. And if these folks who speculated in a book leave the hobby and sell their stuff, you can almost bet it will not be very profitable if not a losing situation.

If anything-- they seem to be putting money into the hobby-- however foolishly -- thinking they can outsmart people with much more experience than them. Please keep buying from us is my take. Stick around-- buy some more stuff.

I already made mention that people whose business is to buy-and-sell comics does not bother me. Not sure where your grief on this would come from.

It's the guys looking to "flip on the side", whatever the heck you wanna call it, that are degrading the collecting hobby.

I told you that I think you were misunderstanding my posts. I'm pretty sure we're on the same page...

[FineCollector]

1 minute ago, 01TheDude said:

I thought this thread was about the new entrants to the market who buy books at market prices hoping to turn a profit at that point. The majority of people who flip comics from this board hunt for collections, get them at good value and make decent money when they sell high demand stuff. Nothing wrong with that. Guys like BCS (Bitcoinswami in case you forgot) -- the so called COMIC INVESTORS -- are fools who buy items at those market prices expecting things will continue to go up in value. So the people making any money are the old guard-- the old collectors in the hobby for a long time and who understand the price of books. And if these folks who speculated in a book leave the hobby and sell their stuff, you can almost bet it will not be very profitable if not a losing situation.

You're right on target.  If Super-dude #17, first appearance of Super-Dude's sidekick, is a $3 book and it spikes to $40 due to a movie, I want to understand the monkeys driving the book up to $40.

[01TheDude]

THIS POST IS NOT ADDRESSED TO ANYONE -- I am merely giving my final answer to the question posed by the OP.

If the speculation fails, the ones who remain either become collectors by default (still have the books), lose their money selling them at a loss, or they simply give up. In other words-- they have no impact on the hobby other than the original cash infusion at market prices because in general, they are uniformed. That cash is still in the hobby whether they leave or not. It is in the wallets of the people who sold the "hot" book. The prices that speculators have inflated books up to will eventually come back to reality. This is nothing new-- just part of the game. Makes me think I should probably sell some of my bronze age #1s now before the speculators fizzle out. I can get them back another time if I need them-- or not-- whatever. My investment was only a quarter or maybe 35 cents.

[october]

6 minutes ago, 01TheDude said:

THIS POST IS NOT ADDRESSED TO ANYONE -- I am merely giving my final answer to the question posed by the OP.

If the speculation fails, the ones who remain either become collectors by default (still have the books), lose their money selling them at a loss, or they simply give up. In other words-- they have no impact on the hobby other than the original cash infusion at market prices because in general, they are uniformed. That cash is still in the hobby whether they leave or not. It is in the wallets of the people who sold the "hot" book. The prices that speculators have inflated books up to will eventually come back to reality. This is nothing new-- just part of the game. Makes me think I should probably sell some of my bronze age #1s now before the speculators fizzle out. I can get them back another time if I need them-- or not-- whatever. My investment was only a quarter or maybe 35 cents.

The speculation boom/bust cycle doesn't just reset things to zero, it undermines all sorts of things, including collector confidence and the willingness of outsiders to enter the hobby. Look at the havok the baseball card and comic bubbles of the 90's inflicted on the hobbies. It took literal decades to recover when the speculators and quick buck artists exited. 

Fast runups in prices, exponential price growth, disinterest in collecting, and a lack of true interest in the medium are all historically bad news for hobbies. The bedrock of any collectible is the genuine interest that people have in the material. That causes natural price appreciation. Speculator interest hijacks this, ramps it out of control, then causes a serious hangover when the music stops. And it WILL stop.

[01TheDude]

Guess I read the question wrong-- I thought this was about what happens to the speculators who remain after they fail-- not what happens to those of us still in the hobby after the speculators have failed.

Personally-- I will still have my books, most of which I have had since I was 14. That kid is screwed.

[jason4]

Seems to me from youtube channel watching that some of the people  who are collectors also go after spec books and hoard them to make a profit when the selling is good so they can collect more of what they consider keepers. 

I have never bought a book solely for the purpose of profit. But if a book I have goes up significantly and I lose some interest in keeping it I'll sell it to buy more of what I like.

So i don't think it is just speculators vs collectors...there is a gray area.

[BuscemasAvengers]

Original questions were:

Do any of you have anecdotes about collectors who chase the top market prices, and get burned when the books cool? How about Caveat Emptor?

Do they take their licks and keep buying back in like bad poker players, do they see the light and start buying more sensibly, or do they just quit the hobby entirely? Yes to all ... the first group seem to have $$ to spare (or are hiding their debts), the second group may have been wounded by a significant loss, and choose to buy according to other criteria (which could or could not be sensible), and the third group may have gotten more than significantly burned, and the rent (or some other life criteria they diminished because of reckless spending) is due soon ...

Edited April 30, 2019 by BuscemasAvengers

[october]

12 minutes ago, 01TheDude said:

Guess I read the question wrong-- I thought this was about what happens to the speculators who remain after they fail-- not what happens to those of us still in the hobby after the speculators have failed.

Personally-- I will still have my books, most of which I have had since I was 14. That kid is screwed.

When one speculation fails? Nothing. When the market enters a downturn? They bail, and we are left picking up the pieces. 

[01TheDude]

9 minutes ago, october said:

When one speculation fails? Nothing. When the market enters a downturn? They bail, and we are left picking up the pieces. 

my collecting time was dormant from about 1979 through 2014-- so I missed all that fun stuff I guess. To me -- the market has always seemed like a happy place.

[ThothAmon]

1 hour ago, 01TheDude said:

in the hobby for a long time and who understand

Right on!  I've been speculating in comics since 1976 when I saw my first copy of Overstreet and learned comics retained value.  Now I try to speculate on Golden Age primarily.  Losses?  I've had a few, but I always seem to make up for 'em with volume.  LOL.  

[1Cool]

39 minutes ago, 01TheDude said:

my collecting time was dormant from about 1979 through 2014-- so I missed all that fun stuff I guess. To me -- the market has always seemed like a happy place.

That is the strangest thing about the current market.  We went thru a near crash already in the 90s.  We saw what large scale speculation and unrealistic growth in prices for no reason other then a book being coined the hot book of the month (either by Wizard in the 90s or Bleedingcool now).  We saw how that played out and it just seems to be repeating again and nobody seems to be caring one bit.  I'm starting to do a lot more speculating in stocks then I do in comics just because I see a better long term outcome.

[NoMan]

1 hour ago, 1Cool said:

That is the strangest thing about the current market.  We went thru a near crash already in the 90s.  We saw what large scale speculation and unrealistic growth in prices for no reason other then a book being coined the hot book of the month (either by Wizard in the 90s or Bleedingcool now).  We saw how that played out and it just seems to be repeating again and nobody seems to be caring one bit.  I'm starting to do a lot more speculating in stocks then I do in comics just because I see a better long term outcome.

That's what I thought, too. I posted my thoughts a while back and a couple of folks said, "No, this is different." 

[slg343]

Personally I have always believed that if the only people to buy comics were true collectors and those that enjoy reading comics this industry would have collapsed long ago.  The perceived and actual long term value of comics and the somewhat stable nature of their growth has brought in money that would have otherwise been spent elsewhere.  I am a long time collector myself and I would never spend 4 to 5 figures on a comic book if there wasn't a long term growth value.  I rarely read floppies as I prefer collected editions and prefer CGC slabs for collecting which some would say goes against nature of collecting comics (you know because I can't smell the book now lol)  but I say live and let live but please spend money so the hobby stays alive.

In short any money in the hobby is a positive, there are far more people willing to buy stuff if they think that stuff with go up in price.  I welcome all speculators, collectors, readers or casual fan of a character.  The money is all good for the hobby.

Edited April 30, 2019 by slg343

[slg343]

26 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

That is the strangest thing about the current market.  We went thru a near crash already in the 90s.  We saw what large scale speculation and unrealistic growth in prices for no reason other then a book being coined the hot book of the month (either by Wizard in the 90s or Bleedingcool now).  We saw how that played out and it just seems to be repeating again and nobody seems to be caring one bit.  I'm starting to do a lot more speculating in stocks then I do in comics just because I see a better long term outcome.

As a reader of comics the books in the 90s also were mostly terrible and everybody was pushing out products which may have also lead to the collapse.

[1Cool]

34 minutes ago, slg343 said:

As a reader of comics the books in the 90s also were mostly terrible and everybody was pushing out products which may have also lead to the collapse.

I can't say if modern books are any more readable compared to the glut of 90s books since the Invincible run is the last modern books I've read.  And based on the number of issues being bought each month I'd say most people have also not read a modern comic in awhile.

[Ride the Tiger]

I think many of us fell into the speculation trap at least once whether it was back in the 90s or even recently. I purchased many books called "Enormous" a few years back. There was a trailer out for a supposed movie. The comic was hot. I purchased and slabbed many of the early issues along with variants. Well the movie never happened so I basically just gave the slabs I had away. Live and learn. Also did it a bit in the 90s but then again everyone was doing a little speculating at the time.

[badback83]

I know a guy who “invested” pretty heavily into New Mutants 98 during the Deadpool pop a couple years ago.  Pretty much lost his A on several 9.8 and 9.6 copies.  He bought too late in the game and paid pretty steep prices. He was new into collecting and got swept up in the idea of making a quick buck.  He learned his lesson.

[oakman29]

I just hope that speculation goes south so I can get books I want at a reasonable price.