Speculation fails - what happens to those who... remain! 2 2

[Martin Sinescu]

19 hours ago, jason4 said:

Seems to me from youtube channel watching that some of the people  who are collectors also go after spec books and hoard them to make a profit when the selling is good so they can collect more of what they consider keepers. 

I have never bought a book solely for the purpose of profit. But if a book I have goes up significantly and I lose some interest in keeping it I'll sell it to buy more of what I like.

So i don't think it is just speculators vs collectors...there is a gray area.

Spot on. I cringe when I read the "us vs. them" wagon-circling, but many may forget the lessons that life experience should be teaching us. Humanity is diverse and complex, whether in our hobby or at work, school, etc. Pigeon-holing and broad-brush painting usually only results in unfairly simplifying, if not outright demonizing, a specific segment or person without room for understanding or acceptance. There's plenty of gray area in this hobby for folks to enjoy however they see fit. Collect and let collect.

I will say, though, that this board is very narrow in its scope, which may influence how boardies view the hobby as a whole. It's not this way throughout the hobby, believe me. I always recommend the forums on ComicBookResources for those who think no one reads modern books or feels that the hobby is skewed too far towards the investment aspect -- you'll find a flourishing community of readers who rarely, if ever, talk about monetary value and have explored the deepest, darkest corners of comics that have never even been mentioned on this board.

[divad]

20 hours ago, october said:

20 hours ago, 01TheDude said:

Guess I read the question wrong-- I thought this was about what happens to the speculators who remain after they fail-- not what happens to those of us still in the hobby after the speculators have failed.

Personally-- I will still have my books, most of which I have had since I was 14. That kid is screwed.

When one speculation fails? Nothing. When the market enters a downturn? They bail, and we are left picking up the pieces. 

Which is not necessarily a bad thing . . . 

[F For Fake]

Without question there are a lot of speculators who entered the hobby strictly because they smelled $$$. I wouldn't argue that. 

But I would underline that a lot of us are collectors who also occasionally speculate and flip books in order to buy more stuff for our collections. I have been wheeling and dealing ever since I sold a couple of old toys at a flea market so I could buy a couple of new toys, when I was about 8 or 9. I've been hooked ever since. I am a collector with a great, long and abiding love for the medium and the hobby. I also buy hot books and sell them. Speculators and collectors don't have to be mutually exclusive, and in fact, I'd say they're often the same.

That being said, I've been doing it long enough to have a pretty good idea of when to jump in and out. I don't get left holding the bag very often...in fact, the opposite is often true: I jump too soon. Ah, well. It's part of the deal. So, I own books that have done well in the current bubble, and will likely see a decrease whenever the mania subsides. But I can weather that because 1. I didn't pay top of market prices for them, and 2. I love the books I keep. That's why I keep them. Buy what you love, and you will always love your collection.

[batman_fan]

I know some knucklehead that speculates in GA Batman's. Cant imagine him ever making his money back.

 

[Ken Aldred]

5 hours ago, batman_fan said:

I know some knucklehead that speculates in GA Batman's. Cant imagine him ever making his money back.

 

Very, very nice.

[Robot Man]

I have seen a lot of younger (to me) 20's and early '30's flippers enter the market in my area. They hit me up hard for PCH and GA hot keys and covers. They pay through the nose and flip amoungst themselves and on Instrgram. They make VERY little profit if any (and often lose money). It is like a drug to them. The grab and the quick flip. Not much love for the books.  I hear the "it's for my private collection" or "I've been looking for that one forever", which means nothing to me anyway. It's kind of sad actually. I wonder how long many of them will be doing it. Good for me but I would rather see these guys stay around for the long term and for the right reasons.

[F For Fake]

The fact that GA has been swept up in the recent spec game is very interesting to me. On one hand, speculation has its various drawbacks, for the hobby and industry, and those are all well documented here on the boards. But on the OTHER hand...at least they're buying cool stuff. The popularity of variants, incentive covers, 9.8 moderns makes sense to me with that crowd. But I never would have foreseen the sudden and massive upswing in popularity for PCH, Planets, GGA, etc. 

[theCapraAegagrus]

18 minutes ago, F For Fake said:

The fact that GA has been swept up in the recent spec game is very interesting to me. On one hand, speculation has its various drawbacks, for the hobby and industry, and those are all well documented here on the boards. But on the OTHER hand...at least they're buying cool stuff. The popularity of variants, incentive covers, 9.8 moderns makes sense to me with that crowd. But I never would have foreseen the sudden and massive upswing in popularity for PCH, Planets, GGA, etc. 

You're gonna trigger me...

[october]

4 hours ago, Robot Man said:

I have seen a lot of younger (to me) 20's and early '30's flippers enter the market in my area. They hit me up hard for PCH and GA hot keys and covers. They pay through the nose and flip amoungst themselves and on Instrgram. They make VERY little profit if any (and often lose money). It is like a drug to them. The grab and the quick flip. Not much love for the books.  I hear the "it's for my private collection" or "I've been looking for that one forever", which means nothing to me anyway. It's kind of sad actually. I wonder how long many of them will be doing it. Good for me but I would rather see these guys stay around for the long term and for the right reasons.

The comics are incidental. They are collecting social media cache. Once that is used up they need to find another book to show off, which means flipping the old one. 

Not all of them are like that, but enough are for me to take notice. 

[batman_fan]

5 minutes ago, october said:

The comics are incidental. They are collecting social media cache. Once that is used up they need to find another book to show off, which means flipping the old one. 

Not all of them are like that, but enough are for me to take notice. 

Mic drop cuz it is true

[NoMan]

6 hours ago, Robot Man said:

I have seen a lot of younger (to me) 20's and early '30's flippers enter the market in my area. They hit me up hard for PCH and GA hot keys and covers. They pay through the nose and flip amoungst themselves and on Instrgram. They make VERY little profit if any (and often lose money). It is like a drug to them. The grab and the quick flip. Not much love for the books.  I hear the "it's for my private collection" or "I've been looking for that one forever", which means nothing to me anyway. It's kind of sad actually. I wonder how long many of them will be doing it. Good for me but I would rather see these guys stay around for the long term and for the right reasons.

If someone's flipping, I wonder the need to say, "It's for my private collection." Perhaps it's in hopes of getting a price break. 

[batman_fan]

4 minutes ago, NoMan said:

If someone's flipping, I wonder the need to say, "It's for my private collection." Perhaps it's in hopes of getting a price break. 

That is my experience, typically said to negotiate a lower price.  I have sold books before that were for peoples permanent collection, would never see the light of day again only to see them in a few months later for sell.  Disappointing to me but once I sell them, not mine anymore.

[grebal]

34 minutes ago, NoMan said:

If someone's flipping, I wonder the need to say, "It's for my private collection." Perhaps it's in hopes of getting a price break. 

Might easily work on me - I'm less aggressive about getting 'top dollar' especially if I got the book much cheaper, and like the idea of two 'winners' (me for selling, the buyer because he got a discount, a good feeling that might even carry into the next day or two).

Selling at a discount from the max amount I could easily get, just to provide a profit to the other, psychologically makes me feel a sucker (I'm not pretending it's a rational reaction), not a person who just did a favor and made some money at the same time.  It's why I sell on feebay despite the monetary costs compared to here, stay clear all the underlying personalities and possible drama, just mercenary dealing, makes no friends but OTOH no enemies either (well, plus I've a lot of junk). 

[comicginger1789]

I have no problem with speculators and books becoming hot because of TV show, movies, etc.

It adds to the thrill of the hunt, finding a once cheap book still cheap in a bin that you can now get $15-30 for. Heck, sometimes I flip said books because a lot of the time they are newer and I don't care as much about them. I would rather make $25 in profit and put that towards something I actually want. That being said, I don't chase or try to speculate. I find I am not "connected" enough to get the news soon enough nor do I care enough to do so. But I do follow a couple select Youtube channels for the purpose of educating and knowing what the community thinks is hot so I don't miss out on the possibility of turning something previously worth cover price into a little extra coin for a desired book.

For example, I bought Carnage USA #1 a couple years ago for $2. Just because. Did not love the issue, so it sat in my bins for the past 5 years or so. Now, it can sell for $25-30. So I sold it. Figure I would rather have some money and knock off an ASM issue I am missing instead:)

Edited May 3, 2019 by comicginger1789

[Robot Man]

1 hour ago, NoMan said:

If someone's flipping, I wonder the need to say, "It's for my private collection." Perhaps it's in hopes of getting a price break. 

Yes. I have no problem selling a book to almost anyone with no strings attached. It is entirely up to them what they do with it once it's theirs. If they make some dough, cool, they will be back for more. I don't need to squeek every nickle out of a book.

What I don't like though are LIARS. I know the game. If you want a lower price ask. I don't need to know why. I can always say yes or no. I just don't like people who don't tell the truth. I have caught most of the locals here trying to use that tactic posting on ebay or Instagram. Or when one of their buddies proudly shows off a book they bought from the "private collector" I sold it to. Yeah, I pay attention.

[Gatsby77]

Y'all are punks.

Seriously?

No one's willing to come forth with some spectacular speculation fails?

Okay. Here's the one's that sting (for reference, I'm in my early 40s but started collecting in 1989 w/ the Batman movie). I'm primarily a fan / collector, but here are my most memorable speculation fails:

Episode I: Comicfest '93 in Philly -- the beginning of the bust. With $50 in my pocket, I'm stuck with a decision. Do I buy:

a) I, Lusiphur # 1 in 9.0/9.2 for $45 (keep in mind Poison Elves # 1 is a $20 book)

b) All-Star Western # 10 in 9.0/9.2 for $45

c) Bone # 1 in 9.6 for $50

Tough choice, but I bought the All-Star Western for $45. Sold it 8 years later for $260. Buyer was happy. Turns out CGC couldn't encapsulate it though, due to an overhang. It later sells (still raw on eBay) a few years later for just $131. I'm the under-bidder, and I kick myself for not reacquiring it.

As it turns out, Drew Hayes dies and Poison Elves (thus, demand for I, Lusiphur) with him.

I told my buddy to buy the Bone # 1 for $50. Instead, he goes all-in on Ultraverse (hottest thing at the show, the next Valiant). Bummer.

Episode II: Three months later or so. Ultraverse is still red-hot (the next Valiant). I trade said-buddy 11 NM 9.4-ish copies of Byrne X-Men (including 129-134) for 47 issues of Ultraverse.  #fail.

Episode III: Death of Superman. I go all-in from the jump. Buy 8 pristine copies of Man of Steel # 18 off the shelf, half of them newsstand. Fast forward 20+ years. The trailer for BvS hits. I fail to sell. April 2019 - I still have those 8 pristine copies, although the bags haven't been swapped out in 15 years now. They've got to be worth money someday, baby!

Episode IV: 2003. The Wolverine title gets rebooted. As Wolverine's my favorite character, I go all-in. Pre-order 50 copies at $1.81 apiece shipped (vs. $2.25 cover price). Later wholesale them off for ~75 cents apiece to KPR Comics in a large storage unit purge in 2014. #Fail

Episode V: 2007: I'm back at Wizard World Philly, and looking for the best copy of Hero for Hire # 1 I can find. Because John Singleton (RIP) is all about directing the movie with Tyrese. There are _zero_ graded copies to be found. I end up paying double-market $110 for a raw 9.0, as well as a few copies in the 5.0-6.0 range. And...nothing happens. For _years_.  Pretty sure KPR Comics got 3 copies of Hero for Hire # 1 in the aforementioned purge of 2014. #Bummer

Episode VI: 2007. Timing Fail. I sell a raw NM 9.6 ASM 300 on eBay in early December, right before Christmas and six months before Venom appears in Spider-Man 3 (well before we'd know it'd suck). It gets lost in the shuffle and sells for an Overstreets guide price of $30.  Note: the pain from this is largely muted by my sale a few days later of a raw 9.8 Ultimate Spider-man # 1 (red) for _$260_. A then-record for a raw book. And the buyer was happy.

Episode VII: 2008. Being a long-time Wolverine fan, I decide that the first film just _has_ to feature Silver Samurai as the villain. And the book (a Daredevil comic from the '70s -- # 110) seems surprisingly scarce in high-grade. I buy five copies, the best of which is a CGC 9.4. Silver Samurai is not in the first film. Worst yet, Silver Samurai _is_ in the second film. And I. Forget. To. Sell. #Grr...

Episode VIII: 2016. I _got_ this. Beta Ray Bill, son! He's gots to appear in Guardian 2. No-brainer! Buy myself five copies, including a CGC 9.2 and CGC 9.6. Spoiler: He doesn't appear. Except as maybe a skull. I forget. At least I still have these copies. Maybe in 2020 as a guest on the Hulu New Warriors TV series as a dude who takes down Squirrel Girl. #HopeSpringsEternal.

Episode IX: 2019. Katherine Langford is cast in Avengers: Endgame. And she has red hair. And her role's a mystery. I think it's a sneak appearance by Firestar. And buy a few copies, including a 9.6. Of Spider-Man and His Amazing Friends # 1. (Gag!)  Spoiler: She doesn't appear. Like, she's not in the movie after all. As any character.  

Edited May 3, 2019 by Gatsby77

[Xenosmilus]

I took a gamble on Avengers #47 CGC 9.8 when I heard that the Black Knight maybe in Endgame.  That being said there wasn't too much risk because I bought it at the going price at the time however I did miss the spike in price where I would have made around $1200 .  I bought it at Comic Connect and by the time I received it the price started dropping, man they take too long to ship stuff.  

Edited May 3, 2019 by Xenosmilus

[Robot Man]

OK, my name is Robot Man and I am a punk...

I remember the day Walking Dead #1 came out. A pile on the rack at cover price. I'm a horror guy so I grabbed one and thumbed it. Didn't like the art so I put it back. 

I don't speculate on new books. Too easy to make more on vintage ones...

[Old_Man_Adam]

Gearing up for the next avengers film I pickup first Ultron for a steal at $200 , sell it years later for $50 - oh well ....

[NoMan]

4 hours ago, grebal said:

Might easily work on me - I'm less aggressive about getting 'top dollar' especially if I got the book much cheaper, and like the idea of two 'winners' (me for selling, the buyer because he got a discount, a good feeling that might even carry into the next day or two).

Selling at a discount from the max amount I could easily get, just to provide a profit to the other, psychologically makes me feel a sucker (I'm not pretending it's a rational reaction), not a person who just did a favor and made some money at the same time.  It's why I sell on feebay despite the monetary costs compared to here, stay clear all the underlying personalities and possible drama, just mercenary dealing, makes no friends but OTOH no enemies either (well, plus I've a lot of junk). 

To those who have never met Grebal in person, he’s a good soul.