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American Flagg #1 cover at HA.
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139 posts in this topic

On ‎5‎/‎19‎/‎2019 at 1:22 PM, Mmehdy said:

good news is it was the guest bath and hung along with the title page..so it was not in use everyday..lol...But it is black and white and a good place to avoid the sun...here in Calle

"Hard Times!" indeed...

Flagg1.thumb.jpg.57b9bc44a9f0b0b812c49cb16aaed545.jpg

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I've been tracking this for a while, and sorry to say, even if a comic is actually made into a TV show, the value of the art barely budges. It has to become part of the cultural zeitgeist to even move the needle, like Walking Dead. The only other art I've seen get a bump from its TV show is Preacher, and that was short lived. In fact, most of this art gets a slight bump when the TV show is announced, and then quickly fades. 

So, unless AF is made into the next big cultural touchstone on HBO, or something, the art isn't going to get a bump from it being turned into a TV show.

Movies seem to have a slightly bigger effect, but even then it tends to be short-lived except for KEY pages from KEY stories. (See the price bump for infinity Gauntlet pages).

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7 hours ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

I've been tracking this for a while, and sorry to say, even if a comic is actually made into a TV show, the value of the art barely budges. It has to become part of the cultural zeitgeist to even move the needle, like Walking Dead. The only other art I've seen get a bump from its TV show is Preacher, and that was short lived. In fact, most of this art gets a slight bump when the TV show is announced, and then quickly fades. 

So, unless AF is made into the next big cultural touchstone on HBO, or something, the art isn't going to get a bump from it being turned into a TV show.

Movies seem to have a slightly bigger effect, but even then it tends to be short-lived except for KEY pages from KEY stories. (See the price bump for infinity Gauntlet pages).

that depends if it is a single movie, better chance if it is a tv series...I think the time is right for this...I still see a big upside to the purchase.

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12 hours ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

I've been tracking this for a while, and sorry to say, even if a comic is actually made into a TV show, the value of the art barely budges. It has to become part of the cultural zeitgeist to even move the needle, like Walking Dead. The only other art I've seen get a bump from its TV show is Preacher, and that was short lived. In fact, most of this art gets a slight bump when the TV show is announced, and then quickly fades. 

So, unless AF is made into the next big cultural touchstone on HBO, or something, the art isn't going to get a bump from it being turned into a TV show.

Movies seem to have a slightly bigger effect, but even then it tends to be short-lived except for KEY pages from KEY stories. (See the price bump for infinity Gauntlet pages).

For all it’s worth, I have reason to believe the AF project is dead.

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5 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

For all it’s worth, I have reason to believe the AF project is dead.

Even when it was announced, I never thought the project would see the light of day.  I don't see this is as being a property with mass appeal (at least not if they stay true to its comic book roots), and, while it certainly stood out in 1983, in 2019, I think it's just one of a gazillion other sci-fi themed franchises that isn't likely to stand out nowadays.  

As time goes on, there's a lot of art that's going to move collections and end up in the hands of a member of the last generation to truly love and appreciate it the way no subsequent generation will.  Anyone thinking they're going to make a killing buying those kinds of pieces at auction in 2019 is kidding themselves, IMO. I read that the average IRR (internal rate of return, annualized) for the pieces that re-sold in the latest round of contemporary art auctions, you know, the ones that got the headlines for fetching record prices, was only about 5%. You want to be the guy buying the AF #1 cover for $600 in the 1980s and selling it for 40-fold in 2019*, or the guy buying the Monet "Meules" for $2.5 million in 1986 and selling it for 40-fold in 2019.  

 

* Yes, I know it changed hands in the interim a couple of times.

Edited by delekkerste
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10 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Even when it was announced, I never thought the project would see the light of day.  I don't see this is as being a property with mass appeal (at least not if they stay true to its comic book roots), and, while it certainly stood out in 1983, in 2019, I think it's just one of a gazillion other sci-fi themed franchises that isn't likely to stand out nowadays.  

As time goes on, there's a lot of art that's going to move collections and end up in the hands of a member of the last generation to truly love and appreciate it the way no subsequent generation will.  Anyone thinking they're going to make a killing buying those kinds of pieces at auction in 2019 is kidding themselves, IMO. I read that the average IRR (internal rate of return, annualized) for the pieces that re-sold in the latest round of contemporary art auctions, you know, the ones that got the headlines for fetching record prices, was only about 5%. You want to be the guy buying the AF #1 cover for $600 in the 1980s and selling it for 40-fold in 2019*, or the guy buying the Monet "Meules" for $2.5 million in 1986 and selling it for 40-fold in 2019.  

 

* Yes, I know it changed hands in the interim a couple of times.

Most people don't have the stomach for that kind of risk.   They'd rather buy at 10k (when its already established to have value) and net 15k out of it later.  

Besides, those early buy opportunities aren't really there in comics anymore.

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25 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I read that the average IRR (internal rate of return, annualized) for the pieces that re-sold in the latest round of contemporary art auctions, you know, the ones that got the headlines for fetching record prices, was only about 5%.

Under cold analytical scrutiny, awful return on this bankable star lot:

image.png.0a269396a9aae74ab98e59de8afdd6c6.png

A number of Christie’s specialists from Asia were notably active throughout the evening, bidding for clients via the phone bank. This included feverish bidding for the top lot, which was won by Rebecca Wei, president of Christie’s Asia, for a phone client. The work was a pristine still life by Cézanne, Bouilloire et fruits (1888–90), that was estimated in the region of $40 million.

Auctioneer Adrian Meyer opened the bidding at $30 million, drawing roughly half a dozen bids from various Christie’s specialists before it was hammered down to Wei’s client at $52 million. Perhaps in a sign of how determined her buyer was to win the prized painting, Wei’s first bid came after the price had already been driven up to $48 million. Including buyer’s premium, the final price was $59.3 million.

The Cézanne was once part of a notorious 1978 robbery from collector Michael Bakwin in the Berkshires in Massachusetts. The work was recovered in 1999, and that same year, S.I. Newhouse bought it for $29.5 million at Sotheby’s London.

https://news.artnet.com/market/christies-impressionist-modern-auction-1544419?utm_content=from_&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=News Saturday 5%2F18%2F19&utm_term=artnet News Daily Newsletter USE

Twenty years to turn 29.5m 52m (and that's assuming no SP). Ugly. But yeah...buy what you love ;)

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56 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Even when it was announced, I never thought the project would see the light of day.  I don't see this is as being a property with mass appeal (at least not if they stay true to its comic book roots), and, while it certainly stood out in 1983, in 2019, I think it's just one of a gazillion other sci-fi themed franchises that isn't likely to stand out nowadays.  

As time goes on, there's a lot of art that's going to move collections and end up in the hands of a member of the last generation to truly love and appreciate it the way no subsequent generation will.  Anyone thinking they're going to make a killing buying those kinds of pieces at auction in 2019 is kidding themselves, IMO. I read that the average IRR (internal rate of return, annualized) for the pieces that re-sold in the latest round of contemporary art auctions, you know, the ones that got the headlines for fetching record prices, was only about 5%. You want to be the guy buying the AF #1 cover for $600 in the 1980s and selling it for 40-fold in 2019*, or the guy buying the Monet "Meules" for $2.5 million in 1986 and selling it for 40-fold in 2019.  

 

* Yes, I know it changed hands in the interim a couple of times.

I don't necessarily agree that Flagg! wouldn't make a good TV show. It all depends on the execution, of course. I think it may get made, just not for a while. Europacorp may not make it. But, it's still an IP asset they can sell off to help pay debts, if nothing else.

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1 hour ago, Bronty said:

Most people don't have the stomach for that kind of risk.   They'd rather buy at 10k (when its already established to have value) and net 15k out of it later.  

Besides, those early buy opportunities aren't really there in comics anymore.

This is really true.  I've sold about half of my collection this year to fund some other purchases/investments and had a good chunk of change left over.  I've been looking for some good buys to put that money back into and can't find anything so I bought a house instead.  My returns were great on things that I held over 10-15 years, I'm curious to know if that would remain true on books bought currently.  

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1 hour ago, vodou said:

Twenty years to turn 29.5m 52m (and that's assuming no SP). Ugly. But yeah...buy what you love ;)

Definitely not a good return. I suspect some Impressionist art is still flat-to-down from their 1989-90 peak (as of a few years ago, that was definitely still the case). The current bull market in art has made people forget about 1990-1996, when everything got pole-axed and nothing was spared, not the lowest of the low, nor the best of the best.  

 

1 hour ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

I don't necessarily agree that Flagg! wouldn't make a good TV show. It all depends on the execution, of course. I think it may get made, just not for a while. Europacorp may not make it. But, it's still an IP asset they can sell off to help pay debts, if nothing else.

Hope springs eternal! :baiting: 

1 hour ago, Bronty said:

Most people don't have the stomach for that kind of risk.   They'd rather buy at 10k (when its already established to have value) and net 15k out of it later.  

Besides, those early buy opportunities aren't really there in comics anymore.

They're not really there most anywhere these days. We're living in the easiest money times that have ever existed (negative interest rates in much of the globe!); money has flowed into anything and everything over the past decade in search of return, pulling forward returns and increasing valuations to all-time highs for most assets.  Vodou's 15% rate of return benchmark is not so easy to hit anymore without taking substantial risk; just look at how badly pension funds are coping with their liabilities even with many asset classes near all-time highs.  Hard to earn substantial returns when the center of gravity is down near zero.

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15 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Definitely not a good return. I suspect some Impressionist art is still flat-to-down from their 1989-90 peak (as of a few years ago, that was definitely still the case). The current bull market in art has made people forget about 1990-1996, when everything got pole-axed and nothing was spared, not the lowest of the low, nor the best of the best.  

Can't find the link right now, but there was something else from Newhouse bought for $1m (iirc) in 1992 that did very well this week ($40m iirc?) Likewise a Warhol and a Rauschenberg bought from primary in the sixties both returned extraordinarily. The point being that "when" is just as important as "what". (I know you already know this Gene!) The Best of the Best model of buying tends to ignore the risk of bad "when". But do both of those right, in combination, you either have to get in early and have the "eye" to pick before the market sees it or...wait for a hard correction and buy deep on blood in the streets. And in both cases, then...HOLD. The extra advantage of that is you get to enjoy the art that much longer!

19 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Vodou's 15% rate of return benchmark is not so easy to hit anymore without taking substantial risk; just look at how badly pension funds are coping with their liabilities even with many asset classes near all-time highs. 

I intentionally challenge myself in a nearly impossible way. When you're playing the art game you're already deep in the risk endzone. Is this news to anyone? It's a physical object (with all the risks there), of zero utility, throws off no income, etc etc. To have a reasonable chance of exceeding* my target 15% annual you have to be very ready to do it not just think about it.

*the real goal

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At a high level, I feel more comic book stories will be used for making movies and TV shows because of all the new studios (Amazon, Apple, Hulu, Netflix, etc) looking for material for generating original programming.  A person could look back at previous series and identify potential characters.series to turn into movies or TVs and have a hey day speculating.

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4 hours ago, delekkerste said:

They're not really there most anywhere these days. We're living in the easiest money times that have ever existed (negative interest rates in much of the globe!); money has flowed into anything and everything over the past decade in search of return, pulling forward returns and increasing valuations to all-time highs for most assets.  Vodou's 15% rate of return benchmark is not so easy to hit anymore without taking substantial risk; just look at how badly pension funds are coping with their liabilities even with many asset classes near all-time highs.  Hard to earn substantial returns when the center of gravity is down near zero.

Fair point and its nice to get that macro view of things sometimes during these discussions.    You do bring a different perspective and its nice to hear it.    That being said, I was just referring to collectibles specifically and I think there's always opportunities there precisely because does tend to follow that demographic wave.   I suspect your macro counterpoint would be that this is a digital generation etc etc as you've mentioned in the past and there may be truth to that.    However, I think the drive to collect, for at least a portion of the population is as intrinsic as the squirrel's drive to collect nuts for winter.   I don't think you can ipad that out of certain people.    Now, what they will collect...... a whole other ball of wax.

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30 minutes ago, batman_fan said:

At a high level, I feel more comic book stories will be used for making movies and TV shows because of all the new studios (Amazon, Apple, Hulu, Netflix, etc) looking for material for generating original programming.  A person could look back at previous series and identify potential characters.series to turn into movies or TVs and have a hey day speculating.

Okay.   But to the extent that's true, Hollywood will not limit itself to comic material.    It will use anything and everything it can to make a buck.    It may be that the best movie related spec of the future will relate to something other than comics.    Anything you can think of with a large built in audience will be grist for the mill.    Comics do make for a nice transition since the comic almost acts as a storyboard, but ultimately, its anything and everything with audience.

Edited by Bronty
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1 hour ago, Bronty said:

Okay.   But to the extent that's true, Hollywood will not limit itself to comic material.    It will use anything and everything it can to make a buck.    It may be that the best movie related spec of the future will relate to something other than comics.    Anything you can think of with a large built in audience will be grist for the mill.    Comics do make for a nice transition since the comic almost acts as a storyboard, but ultimately, its anything and everything with audience.

100% agree, they will grab material from anyplace they can find it but comics do offer so recognition and potentially an "easy" path to a movie or series.

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5 hours ago, batman_fan said:

100% agree, they will grab material from anyplace they can find it but comics do offer so recognition and potentially an "easy" path to a movie or series.

Yes, but with so many potential comic TV and movies coming down the pipe, even if you believe that OA will get a bump when that happens (and I think most people will agree that it won't happen with all comic properties, only a select few) if there are so many comic TV and movies, the impact to OA pricing will be minimal (or none) 

Regards,

Malvin

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17 hours ago, buttock said:

This is really true.  I've sold about half of my collection this year to fund some other purchases/investments and had a good chunk of change left over.  I've been looking for some good buys to put that money back into and can't find anything so I bought a house instead.

I like how our hobby has been transformed from taking the proceeds of a sale to buy a (used) car to buying a house!

I remember in college in the mid-80s, one of my roommates sold a Hulk #1 (in Fair condition) and it was only enough for him to pay his share of the month's rent.

Edited by tth2
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