American Flagg #1 cover at HA.
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Posted (edited)

Frank:

I am not saying what you think I'm saying, and perhaps I haven't taken the time to fully articulate.

I'm not suggesting that we are ever going to get to a place where characters are the only thing that matters. 

You are right that "big dog artists" have an effect on value and always will.   But the artist's name alone is not nearly as big an effect as some may think because it gets conflated with character, publisher, other aspects of value.   The things I broadly and expansive term "subject matter."

Take Kirby FF cover vs Kirby Boys Ranch cover.

Ditko ASM cover vs Ditko Charlton cover.

The % of value that relates to the artist's name and rendering alone isn't large.    And even that is conflated with the fact they are famous for working at marvel.    If they had only worked at Dell, its again a very different convo.

 

 

Edited by Bronty

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, vodou said:

AF to 1980s is Westerns to 1950s. So awesome "then", so forgettable "now" (except for the same original demographic that's now 35 years closer to death).

Disagree on that take, great material will always have a market...I think the upside of AF#1 is greater than its downside. Any price under $12,500 which is half of what I value it...is a great buy with a potential for a very large upside. The cover is great...again...it a gamble if you are just interested in the money...but at say 12K that is a great gamble. If you collect, then its great to own it.....I had it hanging for many years.

Edited by Mmehdy

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10 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

a gamble if you are just interested in the money

$12k...I'd have to be in it for the money.

And if 12 doesn't become 25 in three years or less...terrible cost:benefit.

I have a number of ways to do that (double) with the same money, and in less time.

It's also fair that I don't love the cover (or series) as much as others do. There's Chaykin I'll pay up for, but it's not this one.

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On 5/11/2019 at 12:19 PM, Mmehdy said:

Here is the story on the AF#1 cover.

 

 I can't remember the year it was close to about one year from its debut...But I bought the AF1 cover AND  one interior page---title page from Howard himself for $600 at SDCC. He brought a stack of OA AF with him, there was one particular page I wanted to purchase that he would also not let go. I held that cover for 20 years or something like that and sold it to Joe when he had just joined HA for I think 10 times what I paid, maybe more...I think it was 6k and I threw in couple of other minor pieces. Here is a good thing, when I bought the cover, Howard did not have the overlay material with him...he promised to send me that in the mail and he DID...cool guy.  I REALLY really liked the "the stars my destination" graphic novel. In fact until this year I had two prime pieces as I had bought them from Mitch as I had the whole book to chose from and have finally traded them off. It's a great cover, and I have the best taste...LOL I agree, the first 12 issues are amazing for its time.

Based on the old COI calculator (assuming you bought it in July of 1984), that $600 in today’s dollars would be $1,472.90. 

Still a bargain. 

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On 5/11/2019 at 8:54 AM, delekkerste said:

All this 80s indie talk is getting me hot for this piece again...I am a bidder up to a point, which hasn't been reached yet at last check. hm

I'm out. Lost all my American Flagg money in the stock market today. :tonofbricks:  

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5 hours ago, vodou said:

 

And if 12 doesn't become 25 in three years or less...terrible cost:benefit.

I have a number of ways to do that (double) with the same money, and in less time.

 

My interest is piqued...

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23 hours ago, Bronty said:

Amerikan Flagg isn't spiderman.   

The quote that Gene was quoting referred to "old classic art pages", so I thought we WERE talking about Kirby FF/Ditko ASM, not American Flagg.  

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23 hours ago, Bronty said:
23 hours ago, Frank Mozz said:

I think the closest thing to compare the OA market to would obviously be the comic market itself, for year people have predicted the DOOM of golden age comic market and in reality its as strong as ever, 

It hasn't been doomed, but its certainly been reduced to the lowest common denominator.    Your well known characters, your classic covers are a fortune.    Everything else is pretty well worthless.   

Ah, this would explain the bargain basement prices for the runs of Hit, Pep, Mystery Men etc. that have come on the market in recent years.  

Oh, wait... 

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9 minutes ago, tth2 said:

The quote that Gene was quoting referred to "old classic art pages", so I thought we WERE talking about Kirby FF/Ditko ASM, not American Flagg.  

yes but there was also reference to "new wave" so the implied meaning appears to have AF, counsellor.   All good.

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15 minutes ago, tth2 said:

Ah, this would explain the bargain basement prices for the runs of Hit, Pep, Mystery Men etc. that have come on the market in recent years.  

Oh, wait... 

It's different for the art than it is for the comics, because there are comics guys who will collect for rarity and the challenge of the hunt. Since art is one of a kind, no one collects a certain type of art simply because it is more rare than others. In fact, lack of supply is one of the biggest factors in suppressing the growth of a collector base for a certain artist, and often has exactly the opposite effect on prices than you would think.  

My friend @Michael OML1  is a big GA collector and he readily admits that he is pretty much the only collector for much of this material. It's a legitimate question to ask what happens to the market for this material in 20+ years. 

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, tth2 said:

Ah, this would explain the bargain basement prices for the runs of Hit, Pep, Mystery Men etc. that have come on the market in recent years.  

Oh, wait... 

And yet you bought a Mile High Lone Ranger (?) for the amount of the tip on a group dinner at a nice restaurant.   Mile High.

Gene has a point, and we can point to the 1% of material that is hot, like the early material you mentioned, or we can talk about the fact that we could go to a convention and buy, say,  Super Rabbit appearances in vg for less than the price of a brand new comic.

Edited by Bronty

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7 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

(thumbsu

Yep, it's not like it's an all-or-nothing proposition. "In 25 years, people will no longer care about Mage or Grendel or Nexus or American Flagg, so, Ditko ASM and Kirby FF pages will also be worthless" does not even begin to make any sense.    

I talk to dozens and dozens of other comic art guys. It may surprise Tim that a majority of them will readily admit that there is definitely a generational nostalgia component to the hobby and that, over time, it is inevitable that some properties and creators will fade away. There's a lot of niche material from the '70s and '80s that will almost surely fall into this category (I have argued that it is already underway to some extent; it's practically undeniable at this point). 

What I think will surprise people is that certain mainstream creator runs will, in the fullness of time, also fade in luster. Does anyone think that, in real, inflation-adjusted dollars, Walt Simonson Thor is going to be worth more or less in 25 years than now (if he sold his art, which he is not)? I doubt that run is going to mean more to anyone outside of the generation that grew up with it in the first place; back then, it was so revolutionary and groundbreaking whereas nowadays it's just one of a huge amount of Thor storylines that no one has time to read since it's all but impossible to keep up with current content, let alone going back to read comics from the mid-1980s. 

I am under zero illusion that my beloved Paul Smith X-Men is going to be worth more, adjusted for inflation, in 25 years than it is today. In fact, I will wager that no one born after 1980 will ever love that run as much as I do. Back then, it was only one of a handful of "new" X-Men runs, following Cockrum, Byrne and Cockrum again. Since then, there have been dozens more X-Men runs and an exponential increase in X-Men content. Even if the X-Men remain popular in the year 2044, the short Paul Smith run is just going to be one of a unreadably/unwatchably large amount of X-Men content that people born after a certain date will never have time enough to consume except in bits and pieces.

To the extent that people look backward, they will likely come back to the original source material (early Silver Age storylines for most of the mainstream characters, and a few seminal storylines from the '70s and '80s). I think there will be far less differentiation and discriminating between everything else; perhaps there will be some premium for vintage art due to age and appearance (pre-decompressed storytelling and digital lettering), but, no one in 2044 is going to get excited for the reasons that we who lived through this era did. American Flagg and all the early '80s material was so huge for us back then; how many sub-40 somethings care about this stuff nowadays with most of this stuff being either not in print or in limited print over the past 30-plus years? Almost zero. 

 

that's well expressed.

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

(thumbsu

Yep, it's not like it's an all-or-nothing proposition. "In 25 years, people will no longer care about Mage or Grendel or Nexus or American Flagg, so, Ditko ASM and Kirby FF pages will also be worthless" does not even begin to make any sense.    

I talk to dozens and dozens of other comic art guys. It may surprise Tim that a majority of them will readily admit that there is definitely a generational nostalgia component to the hobby and that, over time, it is inevitable that some properties and creators will fade away. There's a lot of niche material from the '70s and '80s that will almost surely fall into this category (I have argued that it is already underway to some extent; it's practically undeniable at this point). 

What I think will surprise people is that certain mainstream creator runs will, in the fullness of time, also fade in luster. Does anyone think that, in real, inflation-adjusted dollars, Walt Simonson Thor is going to be worth more or less in 25 years than now (if he sold his art, which he is not)? I doubt that run is going to mean more to anyone outside of the generation that grew up with it in the first place; back then, it was so revolutionary and groundbreaking whereas nowadays it's just one of a huge amount of Thor storylines that no one has time to read since it's all but impossible to keep up with current content, let alone going back to read comics from the mid-1980s. 

I am under zero illusion that my beloved Paul Smith X-Men is going to be worth more, adjusted for inflation, in 25 years than it is today. In fact, I will wager that no one born after 1980 will ever love that run as much as I do. Back then, it was only one of a handful of "new" X-Men runs, following Cockrum, Byrne and Cockrum again. Since then, there have been dozens more X-Men runs and an exponential increase in X-Men content. Even if the X-Men remain popular in the year 2044, the short Paul Smith run is just going to be one of an unreadably/unwatchably large amount of X-Men content that people born after a certain date will never have time enough to consume except in bits and pieces.

To the extent that people look backward, they will likely come back to the original source material (early Silver Age storylines for most of the mainstream characters, and a few seminal storylines from the '70s and '80s). I think there will be far less differentiation and discriminating between everything else; perhaps there will be some premium for vintage art due to age and appearance (pre-decompressed storytelling and digital lettering), but, no one in 2044 is going to get excited for the reasons that we who lived through this era did. American Flagg and all the early '80s material was so huge for us back then; how many sub-40 somethings care about this stuff nowadays with most of this stuff being either not in print or in limited print over the past 30-plus years? Plus, so much other content coming out since then, and the influence of these books making their revolutionary-ness seem commonplace now?  Almost zero. 

I think you buy something like the AF #1 cover because you love it. Not because they might make a TV series or movie out of it (which I doubt is going to happen and which I double doubt would translate well anyway). Not because you think it's going to be a good investment. Because you love it, what it represents and the memories it brings back. 2c 

I guess it depends on the "time" in which you buy it....I can remember back at SDCC and at the time AF was my fav new comic book out there....I think he asked originally 700 for the pair but I got him down to 600. When I bought it...One-I liked it BUT I also new it was going to be a good investment. I enjoyed the piece for many years...but I think you can have BOTH mindsets going in to buying a piece like I did, yes I took the money from the sale and bought something else..which has gone up 5X plus since I bought it BUT my time had come on the piece. I still think its BOTH a great investment and a great piece. It was in a way not timed sale, but one which helped me obtain something that I wanted more. In the end, whether up or down, great art like this is a privilege to own, enjoy......and potentially profit from.

Edited by Mmehdy

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1 hour ago, Bronty said:

...or we can talk about the fact that we could go to a convention and buy, say,  Super Rabbit appearances in vg for less than the price of a brand new comic.

About thirty years ago I ran into a nice group of around 20 Super Rabbits in dead-minty condition. They were beautiful, such bright colors, sharp corners, clean white pages, the works. I had no use for them then or since, but I had to take them all down for $3/ea lol

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1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

American Flagg and all the early '80s material was so huge for us back then; how many sub-40 somethings care about this stuff nowadays with most of this stuff being either not in print or in limited print over the past 30-plus years? Plus, so much other content coming out since then, and the influence of these books making their revolutionary-ness seem commonplace now?  Almost zero. 

Part of the reason that stuff was huge was because "direct only" was so revolutionary. Not only did you have to seek it out, the content was 'mature' but the comic guy didn't really care (unlike the foreign guy manning the 7-11 that would never ever sell fifteen year old me any of those nasty black bagged dirty magazines on the rack's topmost shelf). Those of us reading/collecting pre-direct only that were there when the transition happened...it was so cool, like being the first kid to get cable tv or something...comics that weren't "everywhere". Maybe it's just me on this, anybody else?

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53 minutes ago, vodou said:

About thirty years ago I ran into a nice group of around 20 Super Rabbits in dead-minty condition. They were beautiful, such bright colors, sharp corners, clean white pages, the works. I had no use for them then or since, but I had to take them all down for $3/ea lol

They are beautiful books.   Great art, great colors, superhero angle, but worth SQUAT.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

I guess it depends on the "time" in which you buy it....I can remember back at SDCC and at the time AF was my fav new comic book out there....I think he asked originally 700 for the pair but I got him down to 600. When I bought it...One-I liked it BUT I also new it was going to be a good investment. I enjoyed the piece for many years...but I think you can have BOTH mindsets going in to buying a piece like I did, yes I took the money from the sale and bought something else..which has gone up 5X plus since I bought it BUT my time had come on the piece. I still think its BOTH a great investment and a great piece. It was in a way not timed sale, but one which helped me obtain something that I wanted more. In the end, whether up or down, great art like this is a privilege to own, enjoy......and potentially profit from.

Guessing that the 12 to 40 year old range probably encompassed 90%+ of the American Flagg readership in 1983. Allowing for people jumping on a little later and going back to time, let's call it the 10 to 40 year old cohort that more or less "grew up" with this material. So, about 35 years later, that group is now 45 to 75 years old. Probably the top half (at least) of that cohort is no longer actively buying comic art, which leaves the 45 to 60 year old group that is the real prime market for a cover like this (and a lot of that group is probably aging out as well).,

It's not inconceivable that you could buy it now and see it go up in value for a period of time. But, in, say, 15 years, when that prime cohort who grew up with the book is 60-90, and the most likely buyer is someone from a younger generation who has a general appreciation of comic art, but, didn't grow up with this material and is never going to find it as impactful and influential and eye-opening as those of us who grew up with it, are they really going pay more for it (in inflation-adjusted terms) than what someone who grew up with it in the '80s would pay nowadays? I doubt it.

Note to Tim (tth2):  this does not, for a millisecond, imply that there aren't comics and comic art which transcend those who grew up with it (for various reasons - being reprinted, being published as trades/collections, being used as the source material for film/TV, classic/iconic covers, hobby folklore, etc.) But, it certainly does imply that there is A LOT of material that is largely "of its time" and will, as we've seen in other mediums, eventually and inevitably see its fanbase shrink over time. My bet is that a lot of what we loved in the '80s is going to fall into that category. 2c 

Edited by delekkerste

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Bill C said:
On 5/13/2019 at 2:26 PM, vodou said:

 

And if 12 doesn't become 25 in three years or less...terrible cost:benefit.

I have a number of ways to do that (double) with the same money, and in less time.

 

My interest is piqued...

Doubling money in 3 years?  His interest has peaked.

Edited by adamstrange

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, adamstrange said:

Doubling money in 3 years?  His interest has peaked.

If you could do it consistently.

Oh, I see what you did there

8b0.jpg

Edited by Bill C

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