Previews vs. First Appearance - Introducing RULE 31. 1 1

[valiantman]

A simple solution to the "preview" vs. "first appearance" debate is to take the definition back to the beginning AND to reflect the actual market.

This "preview" of Action Comics #1 appeared in More Fun Comics #31

... which established a very clear example of a "preview" which COULD be considered the first appearance.

NOW, using that fact, we can see that More Fun Comics #31 most recently sold for $1,195 for CGC 2.5 and $1,076 for CGC 3.5, for an average of $1,136 for an average grade of CGC 3.0.

The most recent sale of CGC 3.0 Action Comics #1 was $498,750.

THEREFORE...

A very clear preview of an upcoming comic/character for the most famous example of all time dictates that GIVEN THE SAME GRADE, the preview book should be 439 times CHEAPER than the actual first appearance, even though the preview occurred earlier.

If anyone claims that a preview should be more valuable than the first appearance divided by 439, they need to first correct the market for More Fun Comics #31 and Action Comics #1, then get back to us with updated numbers. 

This will be called the "More Fun 31 Rule" or just "Rule 31" (even though More Fun 31 is more fun to say).  Anyone proclaiming the importance/value/legitimacy of preview books/ads/articles/napkins will only need to show how their situation is more important than More Fun 31. 

Edited May 21, 2019 by valiantman
corrected More Fun #1 to #31 (typo)

[Sal]

oh, if only the market was logical.  things would be so much easier on just about everyone

[Hollywood1892]

The market is turning out to be downright ridiculous and I totally agree with you.

Why would anyone think a preview would be more valuable than a first appearance. Its almost as bad as saying a reader's digest condensed version is more valuable than a first print,or a cameo is more valuable than the point in which a character has an impact in the run (as a first appearance)(because swami would say maximum carnage is more of an impact than 361)...too extreme?

Edited May 20, 2019 by Hollywood1892
Typos

[valiantman]

2 minutes ago, Hollywood1892 said:

The market is turning out to be downright ridiculous and I totally agree with you.

Why would anyone think a preview would be more valuable than a first appearance.

There is a scenario where an argument can be made that previews are "RARER" than first appearances, so the formula should be adjusted.

However, in the More Fun #31 vs. Action Comics #1 situation described above, More Fun #31 is already 0.1463 of Action #1 counts on the CGC census (6 universal copies vs. 41 universal copies of Action #1).

So, we can make a formula for the Rule 31 (More Fun 31 Rule) appropriate value of a preview book (which is the same grade as a first appearance book):

P = Preview book/ad/article

F = First appearance book

P$ = Rule 31 appropriate value for preview book

Pc = Preview book CGC census count (universal + signature)

F$ = current value for first appearance book

Fc = First appearance book CGC census count (universal + signature)

 

RULE 31 FORMULA:

P$ = F$ / 439 * Fc / Pc * 0.1463

 

Example:

P = More Fun #31

F = Action Comics #1

P$ = what we want to find out

Pc = 6

F$ = $498,750 for CGC 3.0

Fc = 41

P$ = F$ / 439 * Fc / Pc * 0.1463

P$ = $498,750 / 439 * 41 / 6  * 0.1463 = $1,136

Therefore, More Fun #31 CGC 3.0 should be worth about $1,136 according to Rule 31 (and it is).

[valiantman]

28 minutes ago, Sal said:

oh, if only the market was logical.  things would be so much easier on just about everyone

It's a goal to educate the market as best we can, particularly this year and next, since hindsight is 20/20 and next year is 2020.  

[Hollywood1892]

1 minute ago, valiantman said:

There is a scenario where an argument can be made that previews are "RARER" than first appearances, so the formula should be adjusted.

However, in the More Fun #31 vs. Action Comics #1 situation described above, More Fun #31 is already 0.1463 of Action #1 counts on the CGC census (6 universal copies vs. 41 universal copies of Action #1).

So, we can make a formula for the Rule 31 (More Fun 31 Rule) appropriate value of a preview book (which is the same grade as a first appearance book):

P = Preview book/ad/article

F = First appearance book

P$ = Rule 31 appropriate value for preview book

Pc = Preview book CGC census count (universal + signature)

F$ = current value for first appearance book

Fc = First appearance book CGC census count (universal + signature)

 

RULE 31 FORMULA:

P$ = F$ / 439 * Fc / Pc * 0.1463

 

Example:

P = More Fun #31

F = Action Comics #1

P$ = what we want to find out

Pc = 6

F$ = $498,750 for CGC 3.0

Fc = 41

P$ = F$ / 439 * Fc / Pc * 0.1463

P$ = $498,750 / 439 * 41 / 6  * 0.1463 = $1,136

Therefore, More Fun #31 CGC 3.0 should be worth about $1,136 according to Rule 31 (and it is).

Valiantly done Valiantman...you are a mad genius...with all due respect(you have deserved it)

[Hollywood1892]

1 minute ago, valiantman said:

It's a goal to educate the market as best we can, particularly this year and next, since hindsight is 20/20 and next year is 2020.  

The market has gone crazy,there is such a disparity of costs that it doesn't make any comprehensive sense anymore,and dealers are setting there own prices on things.

I guess what it really comes down to is how much is a person willing to spend. But what really bothers me is the audacity of some of these sellers.

At least when it comes to sports card collecting,it depends on a players performance,not popularity of a book.

Sorry if I teetered near the edge of the topic road.

Your formula is totally amazing by the way.

[mr_highgrade]

Amazing Heroes #16 Pre-dates Marvel Graphic Novel #4 (1st app.of The New Mutants) A CGC 9.0 sold last July for $103.00. A MGN #4 CGC 9.0 sold this year for $83.00, although the 12 month AVG. is $143.00. 

Edited May 20, 2019 by mr_highgrade

[valiantman]

2 minutes ago, mr_highgrade said:

Amazing Heroes #16 Pre-dates Marvel Graphic Novel #4 (1st app.of The New Mutants) A CGC 9.0 sold for last July for $103.00. A MGN #4 CGC 9.0 sold this year for $83.00, although the 12 month AVG. is $143.00. 

RULE 31 to the rescue:

P$ = F$ / 439 * Fc / Pc * 0.1463

 

Example:

P = Amazing Heroes #16

F = Marvel Graphic Novel #4

P$ = what we want to find out

Pc = 10

F$ = $143 for CGC 9.0

Fc = 982

P$ = F$ / 439 * Fc / Pc * 0.1463

P$ = $143 / 439 * 982 / 10  * 0.1463 = $4.68

Therefore, CGC 9.0 Amazing Heroes #16 should be worth about $4.68 according to Rule 31.

If you include the cost of CGC slabbing, then CGC 9.0 Amazing Heroes #16 should be about a $40 book. 

Conversely, if CGC 9.0 Amazing Heroes #16 is worth $103 instead of $40, then the CGC 9.0 Marvel Graphic Novel #4 should be $368.

[Spidey 62]

21 minutes ago, valiantman said:

There is a scenario where an argument can be made that previews are "RARER" than first appearances, so the formula should be adjusted.

However, in the More Fun #31 vs. Action Comics #1 situation described above, More Fun #31 is already 0.1463 of Action #1 counts on the CGC census (6 universal copies vs. 41 universal copies of Action #1).

So, we can make a formula for the Rule 31 (More Fun 31 Rule) appropriate value of a preview book (which is the same grade as a first appearance book):

P = Preview book/ad/article

F = First appearance book

P$ = Rule 31 appropriate value for preview book

Pc = Preview book CGC census count (universal + signature)

F$ = current value for first appearance book

Fc = First appearance book CGC census count (universal + signature)

 

RULE 31 FORMULA:

P$ = F$ / 439 * Fc / Pc * 0.1463

 

Example:

P = More Fun #31

F = Action Comics #1

P$ = what we want to find out

Pc = 6

F$ = $498,750 for CGC 3.0

Fc = 41

P$ = F$ / 439 * Fc / Pc * 0.1463

P$ = $498,750 / 439 * 41 / 6  * 0.1463 = $1,136

Therefore, More Fun #31 CGC 3.0 should be worth about $1,136 according to Rule 31 (and it is).

How would this translate to, say, AF15?  Was there a preview, and does the formula fit?  I don't think you can call it a hard and fast formula unless it plays out on multiple books.  Cool work, though.  I know a guy that loves math stuff like that and applied it to baseball / HOF stats.

Edit - I see from your next post that the formula is the same and the multiplers change to generate estimate values.  I get it now.

Edited May 20, 2019 by Spidey 62

[valiantman]

Just now, Spidey 62 said:

How would this translate to, say, AF15?  Was there a preview, and does the formula fit?  I don't think you can call it a hard and fast formula unless it plays out on multiple books.  Cool work, though.  I know a guy that loves math stuff like that and applied it to baseball / HOF stats.

I don't think there was an AF #15 preview.

I'm not saying the formula works every time, BUT I am saying that any scenarios where "preview" is being compared to "first appearance" is going to be less important than Action Comics #1.  People can argue all they want about this book or that book, but we've got a clear example in More Fun #31 vs. Action Comics #1 and that seems like it should put the other arguments into (mathematical) perspective. 

[ADAMANTIUM]

Wasn't there a DeadWorld book with The Crow on the back cover before the Caliber Presents? 

Edit, it was Deadworld #10, seemingly 2 covers? not sure  

Edited May 20, 2019 by ADAMANTIUM

[Spidey 62]

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I don't think there was an AF #15 preview.

I'm not saying the formula works every time, BUT I am saying that any scenarios where "preview" is being compared to "first appearance" is going to be less important than Action Comics #1.  People can argue all they want about this book or that book, but we've got a clear example in More Fun #31 vs. Action Comics #1 and that seems like it should put the other arguments into (mathematical) perspective. 

Yes, I edited my post.  One I know there was a preview for was Spidey's black costume.  Marvel Age has a preview of it and then either ASM 252 or MTU 141 for the first app.  Probably ASM 252 as it is the core title.

[valiantman]

15 minutes ago, valiantman said:

RULE 31: P$ = F$ / 439 * Fc / Pc * 0.1463

Those of you playing at home may have noticed that this formula can be simplified to: P$ = F$ * Fc / Pc * 0.000333 

However, this is subject to change if any of the following change:

The value of More Fun #31, the value of Action Comics #1, the CGC census for More Fun #31, or the CGC census for Action Comics #1

For now, however, the above is true.

Edited May 20, 2019 by valiantman

[theCapraAegagrus]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

A simple solution to the "preview" vs. "first appearance" debate is to take the definition back to the beginning AND to reflect the actual market.

This "preview" of Action Comics #1 appeared in More Fun Comics #31

... which established a very clear example of a "preview" which COULD be considered the first appearance.

NOW, using that fact, we can see that More Fun Comics #1 most recently sold for $1,195 for CGC 2.5 and $1,076 for CGC 3.5, for an average of $1,136 for an average grade of CGC 3.0.

The most recent sale of CGC 3.0 Action Comics #1 was $498,750.

THEREFORE...

A very clear preview of an upcoming comic/character for the most famous example of all time dictates that GIVEN THE SAME GRADE, the preview book should be 439 times CHEAPER than the actual first appearance, even though the preview occurred earlier.

If anyone claims that a preview should be more valuable than the first appearance divided by 439, they need to first correct the market for More Fun Comics #31 and Action Comics #1, then get back to us with updated numbers. 

This will be called the "More Fun 31 Rule" or just "Rule 31" (even though More Fun 31 is more fun to say).  Anyone proclaiming the importance/value/legitimacy of preview books/ads/articles/napkins will only need to show how their situation is more important than More Fun 31. 

Cocaine is a hell of a drug.

[valiantman]

2 minutes ago, TwoPiece said:

Cocaine is a hell of a drug.

True, it makes modern preview books look more important than More Fun #31. 

[Hollywood1892]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

Those of you playing at home may have noticed that this formula can be simplified to: P$ = F$ * Fc / Pc * 0.000333 

However, this is subject to change if any of the following change:

The value of More Fun #31, the value of Action Comics #1, the CGC census for More Fun #31, or the CGC census for Action Comics #1

For now, however, the above is true.

I'm just taking what you say at face value. My brain does not possess the capacity to think on your intellectual level...and for that reason I'm out.lol

(Took that last line from shark tank)

[bc]

2 hours ago, valiantman said:

RULE 31 to the rescue:

P$ = F$ / 439 * Fc / Pc * 0.1463

 

Example:

P = Amazing Heroes #16

F = Marvel Graphic Novel #4

P$ = what we want to find out

Pc = 10

F$ = $143 for CGC 9.0

Fc = 982

P$ = F$ / 439 * Fc / Pc * 0.1463

P$ = $143 / 439 * 982 / 10  * 0.1463 = $4.68

Therefore, CGC 9.0 Amazing Heroes #16 should be worth about $4.68 according to Rule 31.

If you include the cost of CGC slabbing, then CGC 9.0 Amazing Heroes #16 should be about a $40 book. 

Conversely, if CGC 9.0 Amazing Heroes #16 is worth $103 instead of $40, then the CGC 9.0 Marvel Graphic Novel #4 should be $368.

Let's try another test of Rule 31:

So if Human Torch Comics #3/#2 has a preview of Captain America Comics #1 on the inside of the front cover:

P = Human Torch Comics #3/#2

F = Captain America Comics #1

P$ = what we want to find out

Pc = 56

F$ = $190,000 CGC 7.0 (from the most recent HA auction)

Fc = 80

P$ = F$/439 * Fc/Pc*0.1463

P$ = $190,000/439 * 80/56 * 0.1463

P$ = $432.80 * 1.4285 * 0.1463

P$ = $90.45 

?????

GPA for Human Torch Comics #3/#2 in CGC 7.0 = $3,346

 

Is my math incorrect ? Is there some parenthesis needed in the formula to control the order of operations?

 

 

[Lazyboy]

Of course I agree understand that previews are not first appearances, but this is kind of an extension of the "value makes keys" irrational thinking. Value is determined by the market, based on supply and demand (and some stupidity, currently). First appearances are a significant demand factor, but they're far from the only one and don't affect supply (in the vast majority of cases).

[valiantman]

1 minute ago, bc said:

Let's try another test of Rule 31:

So if Human Torch Comics #3/#2 has a preview of Captain America Comics #1 on the inside of the front cover:

P = Human Torch Comics #3/#2

F = Captain America Comics #1

P$ = what we want to find out

Pc = 56

F$ = $190,000 CGC 7.0 (from the most recent HA auction)

Fc = 80

P$ = F$/439 * Fc/Pc*0.1463

P$ = $190,000/439 * 80/56 * 0.1463

P$ = $432.80 * 1.4285 * 0.1463

P$ = $90.45 

?????

GPA for Human Torch Comics #3/#2 in CGC 7.0 = $3,346

 

Is my math incorrect ? Is there some parenthesis needed in the formula to control the order of operations?

 

 

That's correct, $90.45 is the estimate if Human Torch Comics #3/#2 had only one collectible attribute, specifically, a preview of Captain America Comics #1.

Because there are multiple other reasons to collect Human Torch Comics #3/#2, the GPA is higher than $90.